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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    yup. This will pass quickly, but has good possibility of dropping further before the Dow rebounds. Stay the course and you’ll come out well ahead
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    I am of course not in Co, but applaud your enthusiasm/ambition/fandom!
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, loved the first, disappointed in the second. I’m still willing to give a potential third season a shot. 2 wasn’t a huge letdown.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    Arrrrrgh, Maitey! Musgrove be me treasure! And ye be willing to trade maybe Wallner plus ? to get him.
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    Why? Curious because I liked Marney, I thought she called good games, got stronger in the second and third.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    isn’t that more reason to trade for a front to mid rotation starter you can count on? How many 40 man spots are you going to throw at starting pitcher?
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    if that’s the cost, I would rather hold on to the prospects to swing a trade for a starting pitcher
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    Bert Blyleven is the classic example of why Win isn’t a good pitcher stat. He spent decades on terrible Pirates, Indians, Rangers and Twins teams. If he played for the Reds, Mets, Tigers he might have had 400 wins! Instead he never got that 300 win mark and struggled to get into the Hall as clearly one of the greatest pitchers to have ever played. Win is the ultimate team stat. It just doesn’t do a good job of describing a pitcher in isolation. Of course batting average counts. It’s a completely valid stat and does a good job of describing a hitters ability to make contact. There are other stats that correlate more closely with scoring runs by weighting extra base hits and including walks. That doesn’t take away from batting average. If scoring runs is your jam and RBI is how you measure it, WPA for hitters might give you all you want and more. Win Probability Added, accumulates odds of winning to game outcomes. I like it for relief pitchers but haven’t found enough utility for it in other position sets. It might be worth some research.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Ok, I know, tired..... but dang that’s pretty! I can’t wait to see that with a TC on the cap. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NyWNCrxVzPU&feature=youtu.be
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    the advanced stats just like all stats have their pros and cons. I like Fangraphs, mostly for their mobile site and splits tool. Many a debate has been held here between Fangraphs and baseball reference. There are differences in the calculations between them. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/glossary/ For relievers reviewing history I like K%, BB% and WPA. The sample sizes for most relievers is so small that earned run average doesn’t tell you a lot. K9 and BB9 penalize relievers compared to starters. WPA as a stand in for leverage helps identify their usage patterns. Starters reviewing history I tend to lean on xFIP, I think it does a good job of controlling for variables. Hitters I rely on OPS and wRC+. OPS is quick and dirty. WRC+ controls for league and puts hitters on and 100= average scale. It’s a good comp tool. Fielding, I waffle on metrics. I want to use them, but I don’t have much trust in them. I don’t do a ton of forecasting, so I’m curious what the other members do there.
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Great article! Thanks for sharing your insights!
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Good to hear Morneau is getting more games. Now we need Marney for play by play during the season. Dick needs a break too
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    with options, he’s my first call up when Buxton gets injured. In my mind Mr 26 is between Cave and Astudillo.
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    while I’m in no hurry to “push him out the door” either, WPA tells a slightly different story. 1.21 WPA doesn’t put him in the top 5 hitters in terms of Win Probability Added. Rosario has a good season and was absolutely an important part to 2019’s success. He’s just getting expensive and there are cheaper options that can provide similar hitting value and much better fielding getting very close to MLB ready. http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/6-players-who-have-contributed-most-to-the-twins-winning-ways-in-2019-r8303
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Thanks for sharing Seth! The nice way you hear it is tenacity, but I like the cockroach analogy (or metaphor? I can never remember...) better. The survivor mentality fits well.
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    out of 360 or so pitchers in baseball there are maybe 5-10 not horrible hitters. 2.5% isn’t enough to account for
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    I laughed so hard!
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    I laughed so hard!
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    per play, sure.... increased endurance can improve performance via improved ability to practice over longer periods more frequently. I’m with you though, cheating increases WPA immensely
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Make the trade as soon as the opportunity develops. Timing is rarely perfect, and waiting for the trade deadline for a strategic motive is a high risk low reward type of move. The rotation as currently setup is a recipe to blow out the bullpen and make another quick exit in the post season. Berrios is very good 2, good 1 Odorizzi is a good 2, very good 3 Pineda is out the first 39 games and then has to get up to speed. Lots of risk, hard to judge... could be their best starter down the stretch. Hill is just as likely not to pitch as pitch 75 innings Homer Bailey is a fine to be in the mix for 5th starter with Dobnak and Smeltzer but I hope he’s in the bullpen. The Twins desperately need a starter to slot in the top 3 right now. Injuries and ineffectiveness will sort out any perceived over abundance of pitching.
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    wouldn’t you use flesh colored medical tape to adhere the device?
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    why would you use shiny gold tape to adhere a device to a player’s skin?
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Praying for Hill's health and counting on him for your rotation at the same time seems like a bad strategy. Hope is not a plan
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    you are correct, the Twins do need starts for development purposes. Pineda is out 39 games, Rich Hill is just as likely to throw zero innings as 75. Even if the Twins do add a starter, one of Graterol, Dobnak, et al, will be the 5th starter all season and Pineda provides another 7 or so starts. There’s 32-37 starts already and someone will get hurt... You don’t need to worry about putting Bailey in the pen to get those young guys starts. God willing, Dobnak or Thorpe pushes Bailey to the pen!
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    it’s not “new”
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