Cody Christie

The Twins selected DaShawn Keirsey in the fourth round of the 2018 MLB Draft, from the University of Utah. In three collegiate seasons, he hit .334/.391/.473 (.865) with 42 doubles, 11 triples, and eight home runs. He played center field in college and showed an ability to steal bases. This skill set was enough to catch the attention of Twins scouts, and they used a relatively high pick (and an above-slot bonus) on him. In his pro debut, Keirsey posted a .798 OPS in 26 games for the Elizabethton Twins. It was a solid start to his career, but his college experience helped him succeed in a league where he was older than the average age of the competition. In 2019, Keirsey was limited to 36 games due to injury and struggled to find consistency at the plate. Minnesota hoped he could bounce back in 2020, but the pandemic canceled the minor league season. His 2021 season was also limited to fewer than 50 games because of multiple injuries. Most of his time that season was spent at High-A, where the 24-year-old was old for the level. He hit .199/.297/.433 (.730) with 15 extra-base hits in 45 games. Keirsey wouldn’t appear on any top Twins prospect lists because he hadn’t been able to put together a healthy season and showcase his true potential. In 2022, Keirsey finally played over 100 games for the first time in his professional career. He hit .271/.329/.395 (.724) with 26 doubles, 3 triples, and 7 home runs. The Wind Surge coaching staff let him loose on the bases, as he stole 42 of them in 49 attempts. Keirsey was slightly older than the average age of the competition in the Texas League, but he showed that he could stay healthy and produce. The Twins sent Keirsey back to Double-A to begin the 2023 campaign because the Triple-A outfield had other options. In 91 games, he hit .305/.363/.488 (.850) with 17 doubles, 5 triples, and 13 home runs. He was promoted to Triple A at the beginning of August and posted a .739 OPS in the season’s final 39 games. On the bases, he went 39-for-44 in stolen base attempts, including a perfect 8-for-8 at Triple A. Keirsey stayed healthy again and played in a career-high 130 games. Minnesota has a clear need in center field for next season, so it was interesting that they didn’t add Keirsey to the 40-man roster. When he reached Triple A this season, it was the first time he was younger than the average age of the competition. He’s already 26 years old, and the Twins know him better than anyone. Perhaps the team doesn’t feel like he’s a viable option to play regularly in center field, and that’s why they were willing to leave him unprotected. If that skepticism is real, it's not unwarranted. Keirsey's already well into what would typically be a big-league player's prime, so we can't expect much more development from him. That's not the same as saying that such development is impossible, but it's unlikely, by definition. In his decent-sized sample of Triple-A playing time, his underlying data also betrayed some weaknesses that might confine him to a bench role. A lefty swinger, he whiffed on over 29 percent of swings against right-handed pitchers. The average whiff rate for lefty hitters facing righties in MLB in 2023 was 24.8 percent. His average exit velocity was under 88 miles per hour, and 47.5 percent of his batted balls were grounders. That's not a recipe for productivity at the plate, even accounting for his good plate discipline. A non-contending team can draft Keirsey without worrying about some of his flaws. He can play all three outfield spots, and he’s shown a strong ability to steal bases. His swing continued to improve in the upper minors, and another organization can stash him for a year as a fourth outfielder with some upside. Back in June, Seth called Keirsey the Twins' most underrated prospect, and it seems likely that a team might take a chance on his talent level in the Rule 5 Draft. Being a left-handed hitter helps widen his path to playing time elsewhere, but might have worked against him on the Twins' depth chart. Will the Twins regret losing Keirsey if he’s taken in the Rule 5 Draft? Should the Twins have protected him since they have four open spots on the 40-man roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Many fans think of Johan Santana as the team’s best Rule 5 Draft pick. Technically, however, the Twins didn’t draft him. Instead, he was picked by the Marlins and traded to Minnesota as part of a prearranged deal. Santana is arguably the best pitcher in Twins history, but he won’t be featured on the list below, since the Twins didn’t draft him themselves. (Besides, that makes for better suspense, doesn't it?) Minnesota’s current front office has avoided taking players in the Rule 5 Draft for various reasons. Sometimes, the right players aren't available at their draft spot, but more broadly, they value roster flexibility, including moving players up and down from Triple A. Rule 5 draftees must stay on a team’s active roster for the entire season, and contending teams have a tough time hiding those players on the roster. The Twins haven’t selected a player in the Rule 5 Draft since 2017, when the club took Tyler Kinley with the 13th overall pick from the Marlins organization. He made four appearances with the Twins and posted a 24.30 ERA before being offered back to Miami. It seems very unlikely the Twins will select anyone this year, either. Let’s look back at the team’s previous successes in the Rule 5 Draft. Which player has provided the most value to the Twins? 5. Gary Wayne, RP Twins WAR: 2.5 Minnesota selected Wayne from the Montreal Expos with the 10th pick in the 1988 Rule 5 Draft. He pitched parts of four seasons with the Twins from 1989-1992. In 170 innings, he posted a 3.44 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a 5.6 K/9. As a left-handed pitcher, his .688 OPS against southpaws was 64 points lower than versus righties. Minnesota traded Wayne to the Rockies along with Rob Wassenaar, for Brett Merriman. Wayne pitched his final two seasons in the bullpens of the Rockies and the Dodgers. 4. Mark Salas, C Twins WAR: 2.7 In 1984, the Twins selected Salas from the Cardinals organization with the seventh pick. He immediately became the team’s starting catcher, and hit .300/.332/.458 (.791) with 20 doubles, five triples, and nine home runs in 120 games. Salas finished in eighth for the AL Rookie of the Year voting, but accumulated almost as much rWAR as the winner, Ozzie Guillen. (If ever you come into possession of a time machine, please go back and show voters the WARs, to ameliorate this injustice.) During the 1987 season, Salas was traded to the Yankees for Joe Niekro. Overall, he had an eight-year career in the big leagues, playing for six organizations. 3. Ryan Pressly, RP Twins WAR: 3.6 Pressly has gone on to be one of the game’s best relievers, but few could have predicted that back in 2012. Minnesota selected him with the fourth pick, plucking him from the Red Sox organization. He pitched six seasons (317 innings) for the Twins and posted a 3.75 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In July 2018, the Twins traded Pressly to the Astros for Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala. Houston worked with Pressly on his curveball to make it a dominant strikeout pitch, and he’s been integral to the Astros during their decade of dominance. 2. Doug Corbett, RP Twins WAR: 8.3 Corbett was the last pick in the 1979 Rule 5 Draft (10th overall), but he ended up having a solid career as a reliever for the Twins. In his rookie season, he made 73 appearances and posted a 1.98 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. Corbett finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting but accumulated more WAR than both players ahead of him combined. (Again: time travelers, fix it. And don't tell me you don't have time to.) He represented the Twins at the 1981 All-Star Game, as he led the league in games and games finished that season. In May 1982, he was traded with Rob Wilfong to the Angels for Tom Brunansky and Mike Walters. He’d pitch parts of five more seasons, but never replicated his production with the Twins. 1. Shane Mack, OF Twins WAR: 19.6 The Twins selected Mack with the fifth pick in the 1989 Rule 5 Draft from the Padres. He played five years with Minnesota and was a key role player on the 1991 World Series team. In 633 games, he hit .309/.375/.479 (854) while averaging 24 doubles and 13 home runs. Some argue that he is among the most underrated Twins ever. Following the 1994 campaign, he signed in Japan and posted an .819 OPS across two seasons. Mack returned to the big leagues in 1997 and played a part-time role with Boston, Oakland, and Kansas City for two seasons. Do you agree with the rankings above? Would you include Santana in the rankings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

It’s the holiday season, and many shoppers are attempting to find the best deals on the season’s hottest items (Twins Daily even has a gift guide). Teams across baseball are trying to cross items off their own wish lists, but shopping for free agents is sometimes riskier than going for the almost-free big screen on Black Friday. Players are paid on past performance, and some fail to repeat that performance as age and other factors start to play a role. Last week at The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen ranked baseball’s worst contracts based on what is owed to the player and the expected performance from that player. Some of the worst contracts include Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rendon. The Twins have their own buyer’s remorse with some of the team’s long-term deals. 4. Christian Vazquez, C Original deal: Three years, $30 million 2024: $10 million 2025: $10 million The Twins had a need at catcher last season, following a poor year from Ryan Jeffers and the departure of Gary Sánchez. The front office quickly targeted Vázquez and signed him to a three-year pact. Trade rumors have surfaced this offseason that have the Twins shipping out veteran players to free up payroll space, but the team would probably need to eat some of the $20 million he is owed over the next two seasons. On Wednesday, Nick discussed Vazquez's value to the Twins, especially with a younger starting staff. According to FanGraphs, Vázquez was worth $7.6 million last season, even though his 65 OPS+ was his lowest total since 2018. The Twins also utilize a two-catcher rotation, which would be less feasible without Vázquez. It doesn't make sense for a team cutting payroll to trade Vázquez when his value is near its lowest point, and they would have to pay down his contract. 3. Randy Dobnak, SP Original deal: Five years, $9.25 million 2024: $2.25 million 2025: $3 million Dobnak’s extension was a strange contract from the moment it was announced, in March 2021. He was coming off a spring training in which he showcased an improved slider that looked like a strikeout weapon. Minnesota bought out his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, and obtained club options on his first three would-be free-agent years. It gave the Twins some cost certainty, but it looks like a poor deal in retrospect. Dobnak is no longer on the 40-man roster, after spending multiple seasons dealing with a finger issue. Last season, he made 31 appearances (26 starts) at Triple-A with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9. His contract isn’t going to break the bank, but it also wasn’t a move the team was forced to make at the time. 2. Byron Buxton, DH Original deal: Seven years, $100 million 2024: $15 million 2025: $15 million 2026: $15 million 2027: $15 million 2028: $15 million Buxton’s deal didn’t look bad when he signed it, but it has aged poorly over the last year. The Twins signed him as their everyday center fielder, and his damaged knees have limited him to DH duties. From 2021 to 2022, Buxton was worth over $30 million per season, even when averaging 76 games per season. Minnesota can hope that Buxton will return to the outfield at some point, but that's far from certain after not he didn't play a single defensive inning at the big-league level in 2023. His bat will have to carry him through the remainder of his contract, and he’s shown the ability to be one of baseball’s best hitters when he is healthy. In his career, there have only been two full seasons where he has been worth less than $15 million, so there is hope he will bounce back next year. 1. Carlos Correa, SS Original deal: Six years, $200 million 2024: $36 million 2025: $36 million 2026: $31.5 million 2027: $30.5 million 2028: $30 million Correa was named an honorable mention in the original piece at The Athletic because he was only worth 1.4 rWAR in 2023. Twins fans are well aware of Correa’s struggles this season as he dealt with plantar fasciitis. Minnesota hopes Correa can use the offseason to put his injury behind him and return to performing at his previous level. Last week, I wrote about Correa’s first season since signing his big contract and how he impacts the club’s future payroll decisions. Correa and Buxton are tied to the team’s roster through 2028, and nearly $50 million per season is being paid to these two players. Contracts that initially look bad can rebound and look reasonable, especially if Buxton and Correa can return to performing at an All-Star level. Free-agent deals rarely work out in the team’s favor. Clubs pay a premium for the contract's early years and suffer the consequences of declining performance in the back half of the deal. This trend is becoming even more pervasive with big-market teams, as they sign players to 10- to 12-year contracts to spread the money out and avoid paying more in luxury tax. Minnesota isn’t going to approach the luxury tax, so it is even more critical that the front office is spending money wisely on the free market. Do you agree with these rankings? Should Buxton rank higher than Correa? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

According to the Star Tribune (and later announced by the Twins), Cory Provus will move into the television role next season after serving as the Twins radio voice since 2012. Provus has previously filled in for Dick Bremer on television broadcasts and has called college football and basketball games on the Big Ten Network and FS1. Provus joined the Twins from the Brewers organization, where he called games with Bob Uecker. It will be his first time stepping into a full-time television role for baseball, but he is obviously very familiar with the organization. Kris Atteberry has been a fixture on the team’s radio broadcast for 17 seasons and will step into the full-time play-by-play role next year. He has filled in for Provus and Dan Gladden during absences while also hosting the radio’s pregame and postgame shows. Before joining the Twins, Atteberry served as the play-by-play announcer for the St. Paul Saints from 2002-06. Previously, the Twins bypassed Atteberry to give the radio play-by-play duties to Provus. Atteberry will now get his opportunity, and it should be a relatively seamless transition, with both stepping into roles where they have been backup options in the past. They have worked around the Twins organization for over a decade, which should help fans see less of a change with the new broadcast crew. Earlier this winter, the Twins announced that Bremer would be retiring after 40 years as the team’s television voice. Bremer is shifting into a special assistant role for the club even though reports indicated that he wasn’t necessarily ready to retire. Minnesota also recently announced that Bremer has been named the 2023 winner of the Herb Carneal Lifetime Achievement Award, which will be presented as part of the annual Diamond Awards in January. Bremer was a Minnesota native born in Dumont, MN, who had been a Twins fan his entire life. He attended St. Cloud State University and began his play-by-play career with the Twins in 1983. He was on Spectrum Sports from 1983-1985 and continued with the club from 1987-2023 with various other stations. Multiple generations of Twins fans only know Bremer as the voice of the Twins. He leaves big shoes to fill, and the Twins are turning over his microphone to a familiar voice. Provus will likely be joined in the television booth by Justin Morneau in a majority of games, with Roy Smalley, LaTroy Hawkins, and Glen Perkins also seeing time in the color commentator role. Dan Gladden has worked in the Twins radio booth for the last 21 seasons and will likely continue to work alongside Atteberry. Following the announcement, Provus told reporters that the team is removing blackout restrictions for next season, which should open Twins broadcasts to a broader audience. The Twins are still searching for a television home for next season, but the switch in blackout restriction is a huge win for Twins fans across the upper Midwest. How do you feel about Provus taking over the television duties? Are you excited about the idea of blackouts going away? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Carlos Correa and the Twins seemed destined to find each other. His long-term deals with the Giants and Mets each collapsed, and the Twins were waiting to welcome him back into the fold. Granted, it took the largest contract in team history (six years, $200 million), but the Twins were getting one of baseball’s top players in the prime of his career. This was an unusual feeling for Minnesota sports fans because there was hope Correa could push the team to levels not seen in the Target Field era. 2023 Recap Unfortunately, the 2023 regular season did not go as planned for Correa. His season started slowly with a .634 OPS in the first month. Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in May, impacting him on both sides of the ball throughout the 2023 campaign. He posted career-worst totals in most offensive categories, hitting .230/.312/.399 (.711) while grounding into an MLB-high 30 double plays. Even with his struggles, Correa continued to play through the injury as he led the Twins with games played and had 89 more plate appearances than any other player. In September, Correa was finding a way to produce offensively despite his nagging injury. He hit .296/.377/.463 (.840) with three doubles and two home runs in 15 games. He tore the fascia in late September when planting his foot on a popup against the Reds. Team trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters that this kind of tear can lead to less discomfort in the foot for players. Correa’s playoff performance pointed to him being back closer to 100 percent. He made multiple defensive plays that were game-changing moments and went 9-for-22 (.409 BA) with three doubles and four RBIs. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli spoke during the regular season about his own experience with plantar fasciitis. Like Baldelli, players have shared that it can take an entire offseason of rest for the injury to heal completely. Sometimes, players deal with the injury throughout their careers. Hopefully, Correa returns in 2024 without any lingering effects from his injury-plagued 2023 season. Future Payroll Considerations The Twins are dealing with a payroll crunch this winter due to their lucrative television deal expiring at the season’s end. Minnesota is expected to drop payroll this winter, which can impact multiple parts of the roster. Also, there is no clear solution to the club’s television rights problem. Cable companies are falling to the wayside, with households cutting the cord and switching to streaming options. It might be multiple seasons before the Twins find a solution and can return payroll to levels seen in 2023. In 2024, the Twins have some wiggle room with the payroll for multiple reasons. Many of their young players have yet to reach arbitration, which makes them very affordable. Also, Pablo Lopez will only cost $8.25 million before his contract jumps to over $21 million per season from 2025-27. These players will only get more expansive in 2025 and beyond. Correa’s salary accounted for roughly one-fifth of the team’s overall payroll last season. FanGraphs pegged Correa’s financial value at just over $9 million, a career-low total. When healthy, Correa has averaged well over $30 million in value per season. With the team dropping payroll, it’s even more imperative for Correa to match his previous production level. Front offices can regret trading away players or signing free agents to long-term contracts. The Twins knew there were health risks associated with signing Correa, but there was no way to predict this year’s injury issue. Correa is tied to the Twins for at least five more seasons, and his contract will impact the type of players the team can target on the open market. Twins fans saw the highest highs with Correa in the playoffs last season and the lowest lows with his regular-season production. Now, the front office faces the challenge of upgrading a roster with limited payroll flexibility due to contracts like Correa’s. If Correa was a free agent this winter, would the Twins attempt to sign him? Would he be able to get more guaranteed money this winter because of the poor shortstop class available via free agency? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Louie Varland has been quite the success story for the Twins' scouting and player-development departments. Minnesota selected Varland in the 15th round of the 2019 MLB Draft from Concordia University in St. Paul. He entered college with a mid-80s fastball and a below-average breaking ball. By his junior season, he increased his velocity to the low 90s and developed a solid breaking pitch. It was enough to catch the eye of the Twins, and they signed him for $115,000. Varland continued to make improvements after signing with the Twins, because he couldn’t overpower professional hitters with a low-90s fastball. Coming out of the pandemic, he threw in the mid-90s, and his arm slot was lower. These adjustments helped him to be a more consistent pitcher, which helped his prospect stock to rise. Following the 2021 season, Twins Daily ranked him as the organization’s 15th-best prospect after posting a 2.10 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 between Low and High A. His 2022 season established him as one of the team’s top pitching prospects after being named Twins Daily’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. In 126 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.06 ERA, with a 1.26 WHIP and a 146-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota was confident enough in him to have him make his big-league debut at Yankee Stadium. He entered last season as Twins Daily’s ninth-ranked prospect and the fourth-highest-ranked pitcher. Varland began the season at St. Paul, but the Twins were forced to turn to him because of injuries in the first half. In 10 starts, he posted a 5.30 ERA, with a 1.36 WHIP and a 54-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His biggest issue was allowing 14 home runs in 56 innings. As other starters returned, Varland was sent back to Triple A in late June to work on his secondary pitches, including a cutter. Minnesota recalled Varland when rosters expanded on September 1, to test him in a late-inning bullpen role. His stuff was electric, with his fastball hitting triple digits and his cutter being a weapon in the low 90s. In seven relief appearances (12 innings), he allowed two earned runs with a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His playoff experience was limited to two appearances, and he was only asked to get one out per game. Still, overall, it was clear that Varland could be a dominant bullpen option, especially with his improved secondary offerings. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli met with reporters following the 2023 season and had glowing remarks regarding Varland as a reliever. Outside of Jhoan Duran’s emergence, Minnesota’s late-inning bullpen options have been hit-or-miss for multiple seasons, so it’s easy to understand why a manager would get excited about a potential bullpen weapon. If it were up to Baldelli, he’d likely have Varland in the bullpen for next season and worry about other options to fill spots in the starting rotation. Minnesota’s starting rotation is losing two members, with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda signing free-agent deals outside the organization. Currently, the starting staff would include Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack in the top four spots. Varland lines up to fill the fifth spot in the rotation, but it seems likely that the front office will want to add more depth. If the Twins trade for a playoff-caliber starter, Varland would be pushed to Triple A, which the team did with Ober in 2023. It seems clear that no matter what the team does this winter, Varland will be needed in a starting role. Varland has been considered a hard worker throughout his collegiate and professional careers, and the new-and-improved version of him hasn’t been given a starting opportunity. Last season, his breaking and offspeed pitches had negative run values, while his fastball ranked in the 74th percentile. During the 2022 season, opponents posted a .545 SLG against his cutter, but he lowered that by 145 points last season. Another offseason of emphasis and refinement could sharpen that offering into a true difference-maker. Like many pitchers, Varland saw an increase in his velocity in his switch from starter to reliever. He lacks an actual swing-and-miss pitch against right-handed hitters, who hit .275/.317/.526 (.843) against him in 2023. One possible change would be using his cutter as a fastball and then trying to use his sinker more regularly. However, he has lacked a feel for that pitch because he only started throwing that pitch last season. Varland has shown the ability to make substantial improvements from one year to the next, and his sinker should be one focus area. From the front office’s perspective, it’s much easier for Varland to prepare for the season as a starting pitcher and shift him to the bullpen than to do things the other way around. The team assured him last season that the long-term plan is to keep him in the starting rotation. He’s outperformed expectations at every level, and the Twins hope he can take the next step in 2023 and establish himself as one of the team’s long-term rotation options. Should the Twins keep Varland in the rotation? Is it better to move him to the bullpen? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

The Twins must be creative this winter to fill some of the club’s different needs. Minnesota needs a playoff-caliber starter to replace Sonny Gray in the rotation and a replacement for Michael A. Taylor in center field. Adding a right-handed bench bat and upgrading the bullpen would be nice, but those may be luxuries the team can’t afford while cutting payroll. It’s a tough spot for the front office, but they have previously shown the ability to be creative. Many trade rumors this winter have swirled around the club, including shopping veteran players with higher contracts, like Kyle Farmer, Christian Vazquez, and Jorge Polanco. Unfortunately, trade value for those player types will bring back a minimal return. Instead, the front office can look to trade some of their young, established MLB players to capitalize on their value. It will likely take a combination of moves to free up payroll and add impact players at positions of need. Here is a look at three young players the Twins might consider including in trades this winter. Each player’s surplus trade value is from Baseball Trade Values. Edouard Julien, 2B Surplus Trade Value: $35.3 million Julien has been an intriguing prospect over the last two seasons, and fans saw the value he provides at the plate. In 109 games, he hit .263/.381/.459 (.839) with 16 doubles and 16 home runs. His defense made strides at second base, but he’s still considered a below-average defender. Minnesota traded Luis Arraez last winter, when it was clear the club wasn’t confident in his ability to play second base. Julien might be in a similar position, and he has more years of team control than Arraez did last winter. If Polanco was traded, the assumption was that Julien would take over the second base duties. If Julien was also dealt, the Twins have other young options who might be ready to step into the role, including Austin Martin and Brooks Lee. Matt Wallner, OF Surplus Trade Value: $23.3 million Like Julien, Wallner is supposed to be the heir apparent at a position occupied by a current veteran. If the Twins trade Kepler, Wallner can slide over to right field and be part of the team’s line-up for most of the next decade. In 2023, Wallner hit .249/.370/.507(.877) with 11 doubles and 14 home runs across 76 games. The Twins can also look to include Wallner in a trade because his value might never be higher. Wallner’s offensive profile will come with many strikeouts and inconsistent contact. Other corner outfield options include Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin. Wallner has been a great story as a Minnesota native, but the timing might be suitable for the Twins to maximize his value on the trade market. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF Surplus Trade Value: $19.7 million The Twins might consider other top prospects untouchable, like Lee and Walker Jenkins. Rodriguez is the team’s other consensus top-100 prospect, which can make other teams value his potential upside. Rodriguez was added to the team’s 40-man roster this winter and is projected to spend next season at Double-A. It's interesting to consider that Baseball Trade Values believes Rodriguez has much lower value than the other more established players, but that might be reflection of his extreme high-risk/high-reward profile. There are no indications that the Twins want to part with Rodriguez, but the organization will likely need to trade multiple prospects to acquire a frontline starting pitcher. Minnesota’s winning window is open right now, which might force the front office to be aggressive. Minnesota obviously has other highly valued players at or close to the big league, but some of those options might be untouchable in the eyes of the Twins. Will the front office consider trading any of the players mentioned above? Do you agree with the trade values? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Max Kepler has grown up in the Twins organization since signing as a teenager on the international market. There were plenty of ups and downs throughout his professional career. He was the Southern League Player of the Year in 2015 after he finished the season with a .327 batting average, nine home runs, and 18 stolen bases. He was a consensus top-60 prospect entering the 2017 season, and there was hope that he would begin to flourish at the big-league level. Kepler’s MLB career has been inconsistent on offense while developing into one of baseball’s best defensive right-fielders. From 2016-18, his OPS+ hovered just points below 100 while showing stretches where he could be one of the team’s best hitters. In 2019, he had a breakout season by hitting .252/.336/.519 (.855) with 32 doubles and 36 home runs. Baseballs weren’t being hit out at record rates after 2019, and Kepler’s OPS+ dropped to 97 from 2020-22. Minnesota reportedly attempted to trade Kepler following the season but didn’t like the value being offered in return. Minnesota’s payroll is likely dropping for next season, and trading veterans is one avenue to make other roster additions. Here are three reasons why the time is right for a Kepler trade. 1. Kepler's Contract is Expiring It’s now or never for the Twins to make a trade involving Kepler. He’s in the final year of team control after signing a team-friendly contract extension early in his career. An acquiring team could also extend a qualifying offer to Kepler next winter if he is traded during the current offseason. Eligible players would have received a one-year deal worth $20.3 million this winter, but no players accepted the qualifying offer. Kepler has been worth $17 million or more in every full season, and he’s been worth $20.7 million or more in three seasons, including last year. The Twins could always attempt to trade him at the trade deadline, but then he is a rental player who wouldn’t be eligible for the qualifying offer. 2. Kepler is Due for Regression Kepler’s offensive performance in the second half is one of the big reasons the Twins got separation in the division race. In 66 games, he posted a .926 OPS with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs. It seems likely that there will be some regression in his offensive output when compared to his career totals. Baseball-Reference projects Kepler to post a .746 OPS in 2024 with 21 doubles and 18 home runs. Those totals are decent for a strong defensive player, but other teams might be bought in on the improvements made by Kepler in the second half. Baseball Trade Values has Kepler with an 8.9 surplus value, which is higher than Jorge Polanco even though the latter has an additional year of team control. 3. Other Corner Outfield Options The Twins need to upgrade the current roster, including adding a starting center fielder and a playoff-caliber starter. Both of those needs come at a high cost in free agency or trade, which leaves the team looking for flexibility on the roster. Minnesota has other corner outfield options, including Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro, and Nick Gordon. Castro, a switch-hitter, is the only non-lefty in the group, so there isn’t much of an opportunity to play the platoon advantage. Wallner seems like a natural fit to slide over to right field to take even more advantage of his elite throwing arm. Then, the Twins can mix and match players in left field depending on the matchup. Kepler has been in the Twins organization for so long that it’s easy for fans to point out his flaws. There’s no question that he has been a vital role player for a Twins team attempting to return to winning baseball after a decade of ineptitude. Kepler's name made multiple appearaces in the trade proposals created for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook (Click Here to Download). Some will be sad to see him go, and others will be happy to see him leave. Either way, it seems most likely for Kepler to be wearing another team’s uniform on the first day of spring training. Do you think the Twins will trade Kepler? How much value does he have after the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Jon Heyman is reporting that the Twins and Tigers are interested in signing Kenta Maeda. He calls Detroit’s interest “serious” while also saying there might be other clubs interested in adding the veteran starting pitcher. Will Maeda end up on another AL Central team?

The Twins and Rays have made multiple trades in the past, and there are clear trade targets on the Rays that fit Minnesota’s needs. The most recent trade between these two clubs came at the 2021 trade deadline when the Twins sent Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher to Tampa for Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman. Minnesota clearly won this trade, with Ryan developing into a solid big-league pitcher, and Cruz struggled in his two months for Tampa. Overall, the Twins have fared well in trades with the Rays over the last decade. Can Minnesota find another way to get value from players the Rays can no longer afford on their roster? Here are four potential trade targets and how they would fit on the 2024 Twins roster. Tyler Glasnow, SP The Twins are potentially losing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda from their starting rotation, leaving the front office searching for another playoff-caliber starter. Glasnow returned from Tommy John surgery last season and posted a 3.53 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and a 162-to-37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 120 innings. He is due a big bump in pay from $5.35 million in 2023 to $25 million in 2024. The Rays are likely looking to shed his salary since they have one of baseball’s smaller payrolls. Tampa would likely extend him a qualifying offer following the 2024 season, and the potentially recouped draft pick will figure into their asking price for Glasnow. Teams trading for him must provide the Rays with enough value to outweigh an entire season of Glasnow and a late first-round pick. Manuel Margot, CF Finding a center fielder is one of the Twins’ biggest needs for the club this winter. Margot has been a strong defender at all three outfield positions in previous seasons, but his defensive ratings dropped last season while being in his first year back from a patellar tendon strain to his right knee. The Twins might believe he will regain some of his defensive value now that he is a year further removed from his injury. Over the last four seasons, he has posted a 96 OPS+ while hitting .264/.317/.375 (.692). As a righty, his numbers are better versus left-handed pitching with a career .281/.341/.420 (.761) line. He is owed $10 million for 2024 and has a team option for $12 million in 2025. Harold Ramirez, OF/DH Ramirez is a right-handed hitter, which the Twins have needed in recent seasons. Last season, he hit .313/.353/.460 (.813) with 19 doubles, 12 home runs, and a 125 OPS+. However, he destroyed left-handed pitchers with a .966 OPS in 124 plate appearances. Defensively, Ramirez doesn’t provide much value, with the Rays mainly using him at DH last season. During the 2022 season, he logged nearly 250 innings at first base, so the Twins could use him as a platoon option with Kirilloff. He is projected to make roughly $4.4 million through arbitration this year, which might be the upper limit for what the Twins want to spend on a part-time player. Randy Arozarena, OF Arozarena is a playoff legend for the Rays and a former Rookie of the Year. Next season will be his first as an arbitration-eligible player, so his cost might start rising, which is usually when Tampa starts to contemplate trading a player. Last season, he hit .254/.364/.425 (.789) with a 120 OPS+ and was elected to his first All-Star team. For the Twins, he is the least likely fit on this list because he is limited to corner outfield duties, and the Twins have multiple options at those positions. He is right-handed, so the Twins might consider a trade for Arozarena if they can trade one of their other outfield options. Which player should the Twins target? Is Glasnow’s salary too high for the Twins to absorb? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

On Monday, the National Baseball Hall of Fame announced the candidates for the 2024 ballot, which includes 12 newcomers and 14 holdovers from last season. Twins legend Joe Mauer is among a strong rookie group on the ballot, including Adrian Beltre, Chase Utley, and David Wright. Beltre is a lock to be elected on the first ballot, while Mauer and Utley also have strong cases to join him in Cooperstown. Here’s a look at Mauer’s candidacy and how the rest of the ballot impacts his election chances. Mauer’s Cooperstown Case Mauer played his entire 15-year career for his hometown team after the Twins drafted him with the first overall pick in the 2001 MLB Draft. For his career, he hit .306/.388/.439 (.827) with a 124 OPS+ on his way to winning three batting titles and five Silver Sluggers. He was the first American League catcher to win a batting title and the only one to win three batting titles. Defensively, he won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2008-10 and was elected to six All-Star Games. His 2009 MVP season is arguably the best offensive season from a catcher in baseball history. He missed the season’s first month with a back injury but quickly made his presence felt with a home run in his first game back. Mauer finished the season hitting .365/.444/.587 (1.031) with a 171 OPS+. He set a major league record for highest batting average by a catcher and became the first repeat batting champion in nearly a decade. Keizo Konishi of Kyodo News, a member of Seattle’s BBWAA chapter, gave Miguel Cabrera a first-place vote, which was all that kept Mauer from being a unanimous selection. Catcher is an underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame, which makes Mauer’s candidacy even more interesting. JAWS is a system to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness by averaging their career WAR with their 7-year peak WAR. Using JAWS, Mauer is the seventh-best catcher in MLB history, with every catcher ahead of him already elected to the Hall of Fame. Mauer is one of the best catchers of all time, and the only question is whether or not he will be elected on his first ballot. Breaking Down the Ballot Among the newcomers to the ballot, Beltre is one of the top all-around players in baseball history. He recorded 3,166 hits and 477 home runs and won five Gold Gloves, including two Platinum Gloves. There is a genuine possibility that he will become the second player in history to be elected unanimously (Mariano Rivera). JAWS ranks him as the fourth-best third baseman of all time behind Mike Schmidt, Eddie Matthews, and Wade Boggs. Utley’s case is more up in the air because his JAWS total ranks just outside the average of the Hall of Famers at second base. He was a six-time All-Star and won four consecutive Silver Slugger awards from 2006-09. There are also some likely inductees among the holdover candidates from last year’s ballot. Todd Helton received 72.2% of the vote last season, which fell just short of the 75% needed for induction. In his career, he was a .316 hitter with 2,519 hits and 369 home runs. According to JAWS, Helton ranks 15th among first basemen, which is ahead of the average of the 24 players at his position. Billy Wagner landed on 68.1% of the ballots in 2023 and is down to his final two ballot cycles to reach 75%. His 422 saves are sixth on the all-time list, and he was a seven-time All-Star. Relievers are among the least represented groups in the Hall, and Wagner ranks sixth all-time in JAWS. Every reliever ahead of him has already been elected to Cooperstown. Prediction Beltre, Mauer, and Helton will be elected during the current voting cycle. Utley will do well in his first year on the ballot but will need multiple years to be inducted. Wagner will climb over 70% this year before being elected in 2025, his last year on the ballot. The 2024 inductees will be named on January 23rd, 2024, on MLB.com and MLB Network. The induction ceremony will occur on July 21st, 2024, starting at 1:30 PM in Cooperstown, NY. Should Twins fans start planning their trip? Will Mauer be elected on the first ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Some organizations are not planning on contending during the 2024 season, which likely means they would be willing to trade away current value for future long-term pieces. Contending teams like the Twins must find the right balance between supplementing the current roster and adding future assets to open the team’s winning window. The Twins' current roster includes significant depth on the position player side, so that’s a strength from which the team will make moves. Minnesota’s lost TV revenue means the club plans to cut payroll by $15-30 million next season. Veteran players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Kyle Farmer are likely on the trading block to clear some salary space. After examining Minnesota’s roster, two player types are untouchable in trades. Current young players with surplus value moving forward and veteran players with high contracts and trade restrictions. Baseball Trade Values attempts to quantify each player's surplus value in a potential trade, so it’s easy to see why these players are untradeable. 1. Walker Jenkins, OF Surplus Trade Value: 45.1 The Twins selected Jenkins with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, and he’s already established himself as one of baseball’s best prospects. Minnesota pushed him to Low-A, and he posted a .989 OPS in his professional debut. His surplus trade value isn’t the highest in the organization because he is far from the big-league level. The Twins aren’t trading Jenkins because he is on his way to becoming a superstar. 2. Royce Lewis, SS/3B Surplus Trade Value: 44.2 The Twins saw how valuable Lewis can be to the line-up in the second half of last season. He added muscle to his frame while rehabbing from two ACL tears, increasing his power production. He will get an entire off-season to acclimate to third base, his new defensive home. On a team with big names like Correa and Buxton, Lewis is quickly becoming the face of the franchise. 3. Pablo Lopez, SP Surplus Trade Value: 43.1 The Twins have yearned for an ace since trading away Johan Santana was. Lopez stepped into that role last season, and the front office quickly signed him to an extension. He had some ups and downs during his first season with the Twins, but he was fantastic in October. He will be at the top of the team’s rotation through 2027. The Twins continue to try to add to their rotation, so there is no reason to try and trade Lopez. 4. Brooks Lee, SS/3B Surplus Trade Value: 48.1 Lee has the highest surplus trade value of any player in the Twins organization because he is on the cusp of the big leagues. He has a full six years of team control, with some of those years being at a minimal cost. Jenkins and Lee are ranked closely on many national prospect lists, but Lee has a lower floor, and Jenkins has a higher ceiling. The Twins were lucky to get both players in their respective drafts, and the hope is they are in the middle of the team’s line-up for the next decade. 5. Joe Ryan, SP Surplus Trade Value: 39.1 Near last year’s trade deadline, I wrote that Ryan was the team’s most valuable trade asset. His performance struggled in the middle of the season as he dealt with a groin injury. However, there is hope that Ryan can have a healthy 2024 and reach his full potential. Some of his trade value has decreased because he is in his last pre-arbitration season. Still, the Twins want Ryan to take the next step and prove he can be a player they rely on in the playoffs. How would you rank the players listed above? Would the Twins consider trading any of these players for the right starting pitcher? Leave a Comment and start the discussion.

Baseball player development is a non-linear path, with players facing different obstacles on their way to the big-league level. Organizations can be aggressive with some top prospects and move them through the farm system quicker than expected. Other prospects might suffer injuries or poor play and be forced to repeat a level for multiple years. Every prospect follows a different journey, making it intriguing for fans to follow. Below is a look at the top 10 prospects in the Twins organization according to Twins Daily’s end-of-the-season voting. Not every outlet updates its ranking multiple times per year, but Twins Daily updates the player rankings and scouting reports monthly so there is a live view of each prospect's progress. Multiple names below are on pace to impact the Twins roster next season. 1. Walker Jenkins, OF ETA: 2026 The Twins took Jenkins with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 draft. He was promoted relatively aggressively during his professional debut by ending the year at Low-A. In 26 games, he hit .362/.417/.571 (.989) with five doubles, four triples, and three home runs. It’s expected that he will start the year in Fort Myers with a chance to play in Cedar Rapids at the end of 2024. That should put him on pace to reach the big leagues in the second half of 2026, at which point he'll be 21 years old. 2. Brooks Lee, SS/3B ETA: 2024 The 2023 campaign was Lee’s first full season as a professional after the Twins took him with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. He started the year at Double-A, posting an .841 OPS in 87 games. Minnesota promoted him to St. Paul in the season’s second half, and his OPS dipped to .731 at a level where he was over four years younger than the average age of the competition. Lee will start the year in St. Paul and be one injury away from making his big-league debut. 3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF ETA: 2025 Rodriguez will have an advantage over other names on this list due to being added to the 40-man roster this winter. These roster spots are valuable, and it gives him a better chance at making his debut because the team might need to dig into their depth if there are multiple big-league injuries. Rodriguez played the 2023 season at High-A, hitting .240/.400/.463 (.863) with 38 extra-base hits in 99 games. The Twins will plan for him to spend the 2024 campaign at Double-A, which puts him on pace to debut in 2025. 4. Marco Raya, SP ETA: 2025 The Twins have taken a unique development path with Raya by aggressively promoting him while limiting his innings pitched. He ended last season at Double-A in his age-20 season. Between two levels, Raya posted a 4.02 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 62 2/3 innings spread across 22 starts. He never pitched more than four innings in an appearance and never threw more than 54 pitches. It seems likely for Raya to spend all of 2024 at Double-A unless the team continues to be aggressive with him. 5. David Festa, SP ETA: 2024 Festa emerged as one of the organization’s top pitching prospects last season after being taken in the 13th round of the 2021 MLB Draft. He pitched at Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He posted an 11.6 K/9 in 92 1/3 innings across 24 appearances (22 starts). Minnesota faces a self-imposed payroll crunch next season, which may leave the team relying on internal options for added depth. Festa will be at Triple-A, waiting for his opportunity to join the Twins’ rotation at some point next season. 6. Charlee Soto, SP ETA: 2027 Soto has yet to make his professional debut after being drafted by the Twins with the 34th overall selection last June. He didn’t turn 18 until after the draft, so he has a lot of time to develop in the organization’s farm system. He will likely be the last player on this list to debut, but he has an exciting future with his pitching profile. 7. Austin Martin, 2B/OF ETA: 2024 Martin was the top-ranked prospect included in the Jose Berrios trade with Toronto, and he’s seen some ups and downs during his time with the Twins organization. He struggled during the 2022 season with a .683 OPS at Double-A before heading to the AFL and being one of the league’s best hitters. Last season, he injured his elbow during spring training, and there was some discussion that he’d need surgery. Martin rehabbed the elbow and posted a .791 OPS in 59 Triple-A games. The Twins have an opening in center field, and Martin might be able to take over that role at some point in 2024. 8. Brandon Winokur, OF ETA: 2027 Minnesota went well over-slot to sign Winokur for $1.5 million as a third-round pick. Winokur played 17 games during his professional debut and hit .288/.338/.546 (.884) with five doubles and four home runs. He has shown flashes of being a potential five-tool outfielder, but he is far from Target Field. Like Soto, he won’t debut for multiple seasons, and many things can go wrong with development along the way. 9. Luke Keaschall, 2B ETA: 2026 The Twins love to draft college bats, so the club targeted Keaschall with their second-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Minnesota was aggressive after signing him by having him play at three different levels and finishing the year with Cedar Rapids. In 31 games, he hit .288/.414/.478 (.892) with 14 extra-base hits. The Twins will likely have him return to High-A to begin 2024, which puts him on pace to debut during his age-23 season. 10. Tanner Schobel, 2B/3B ETA: 2025 Schobel was selected in the second round of the 2022 MLB Draft, so his development path shows what the Twins might follow with Keaschall. He split time in 2023 between High- and Double-A while posting a .776 OPS in 126 games. Minnesota continues to play him at second and third base, and this defensive flexibility might help him reach the big leagues even sooner. Do you agree with the ETAs listed for each prospect? Which player will have the most significant impact on the Twins next season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.