Cody Christie

Every fan base wants their hometown nine to walk away with the World Series trophy. Here’s how the Twins can win the World Series (in seven years). Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports The year 2031 may seem like a distant horizon, but for the Minnesota Twins, it represents an opportunity to cement their place in baseball history. MLB.com recently projected the Twins to fall to the Mets in the 2031 World Series, a tantalizing but ultimately heartbreaking scenario for fans in Twins Territory. The Twins need a carefully crafted blueprint to flip that script and bring a championship back to Minnesota. Here’s how they can turn that prediction into a triumph. Develop Young Stars into Cornerstones Any championship contender needs homegrown talent, and the Twins are rich in promising prospects who could be pivotal by 2031. Outfielder Walker Jenkins, the team’s 2023 first-round pick, has the tools to be a franchise cornerstone. By 2031, Jenkins should be in his prime, boasting power, patience, and Gold Glove-caliber defense. He has the potential to be a regular MVP contender, and the Twins will need that level of performance for the team to be in contention. For Jenkins, the key will be refining his swing to maximize his power potential and maintaining plate discipline as he faces more advanced pitching. Another exciting outfield prospect, Emmanuel Rodriguez, could form a dynamic tandem with Jenkins. Minnesota fans always dreamed of the duo of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau leading the team to postseason glory but that never came to fruition. Rodriguez’s elite on-base skills and emerging power make him a candidate to be a top-tier leadoff hitter. Over the next seven seasons, his development hinges on staying healthy and continuing to improve his contact rates against high-velocity arms. On the pitching side, the Twins have continued to see the development of top-tier pitching prospects, including David Festa and Zebby Matthews. For 2031, it’s essential to look into the minor leagues to see who could impact the big-league roster. Marco Raya has some of the makings of a front-line starter, but the 2025 season will go a long way for his development. Charlee Soto might be the team’s best chance at developing a front-line ace, and he should be well-established with the Twins over the next five seasons. By 2031, Soto and Raya could anchor the Twins' rotation alongside other young arms who emerge from the system or are acquired via trades. Build a Balanced and Deep Roster The Twins’ front office must continue its trend of blending high-upside prospects with savvy free-agent signings and impactful trades. Teams that reach the World Series and win it often boast depth in both their lineup and pitching staff. The Twins must ensure their farm system remains robust, replenishing talent as players graduate to the majors. Minnesota also has the hope of a new ownership group that might be willing to invest more into the team’s payroll. Currently, the Twins’ front office has little room to make impact moves, but fans can hope that isn’t the story by 2031. Pitching wins championships, and the Twins must continue to emphasize pitcher development. Beyond Raya and Soto, names like Connor Prielipp and Dasan Hill could play significant roles in the rotation or bullpen. By 2031, the Twins need a rotation that can match up with the best in baseball. This means grooming their young arms and being aggressive in pursuing proven pitchers when the time is right. Additionally, the bullpen cannot be an afterthought. The Twins’ 2020 postseason woes highlighted the importance of reliable relief pitching. By 2031, they must build a bullpen stocked with power arms and versatile relievers capable of handling high-leverage situations. Investment and Culture Winning the World Series often requires financial investment, but spending wisely is just as important. Over the next seven years, the Twins must balance long-term extensions for their young stars with opportunistic free-agent acquisitions. Jenkins and Rodriguez could start getting expensive through the arbitration process, so Minnesota’s new ownership must prove it will invest in star-level players. Maintaining financial flexibility allows them to add key pieces to the roster when on the brink of contention. Beyond talent, intangibles like leadership and culture play a crucial role in winning a championship. The Twins must foster an environment where players thrive under pressure and embrace postseason expectations. The organization can create a cohesive approach that players buy into by promoting continuity within the coaching staff and front office. The 2031 season marks the final option year on Carlos Correa’s contract, and while he likely won’t be manning shortstop by then, he could still be an essential piece of the roster. A transition to third base or designated hitter would allow Correa to continue providing value late into his 30s. His strong arm and instincts would make him a natural fit at the hot corner, while his leadership and postseason experience would be invaluable for a team aiming to go the distance. The Road to Glory The path to winning the 2031 World Series will not be linear. It will require patience, development, and bold moves from the front office. However, the foundation is already in place. Suppose players like Jenkins, Rodriguez, Raya, and Soto reach their potential, and the organization surrounds them with the right supporting cast. In that case, there’s no reason the Twins can’t bring a World Series trophy back to Minnesota. MLB.com’s prediction may have the Twins falling short in 2031, but the team has seven years to prove them wrong. With the proper blueprint, the Minnesota Twins can not only contend but reign supreme in October. Can the Twins win the World Series over the next decade? What needs to be added to the blueprint? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota had one of baseball’s best bullpens last season, and the core of that group remains strong. Here’s why the Twins are projected to have MLB’s best bullpen next season, even though they've yet to hit their collective ceiling. Image courtesy of David Richard and Jerome Miron-Imagn Images Pitchers and catchers report to spring training next month, which leaves many fans looking toward the upcoming season. How will the hometown nine perform? Where can the team still improve before Opening Day? What players are set to take on a more critical role? Projection systems like Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS help to set a baseline for what to expect in the upcoming season. Last week, FanGraphs released the team’s ZiPS projections, and the bullpen stood out from the other roster segments. Teams still have room to add pieces to their roster before the season begins, but Minnesota’s bullpen might not need any upgrades. According to Szymborski, “Though it’s certainly not an official projection yet, ZiPS believes at this moment that the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball.” What’s behind this high praise, and how can the team solidify this position as the season approaches? Let’s dive into what’s changed, how the group can improve, and what pieces might still be missing. What’s Changed from 2024 to 2025? The 2024 Twins bullpen was a solid unit, with the second-highest fWAR in the American League. However, every bullpen has its flaws. Injuries and inconsistency plagued the group, leaving questions about its overall reliability. However, several key developments over the offseason and player growth have led to this promising 2025 projection. First, Griffin Jax emerged as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. He had a 2.03 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts in 71 innings pitched in 2024. Jax finished with 10 saves and allowed just four home runs all year. He was worth 2.8 WAR, tied for seventh-most among all MLB relief pitchers. MLB Network recently unveiled its top-10 relievers and Jax was notably left off the list. Entering last year, he was projected to be a solid reliever, but no one could have imagined the elite pitcher he would be in 2024. Secondly, Jhoan Durán has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, but he showed some chinks in his armor last season. Durán’s combination of triple-digit velocity and devastating off-speed pitches makes him a nightmare for opposing hitters. He saw a decrease in velocity last season, so the team must keep an eye on his performance this year. In 58 appearances, he posted a 3.64 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 10.9 K/9. There may be room for him to adjust his pitch usage to be effective even at his lower velocity. Jax and Durán have the potential to be a dominant late-inning duo. Lastly, the front office has made calculated decisions to retain key contributors while avoiding overspending on free agents. Their strategy of maximizing value from in-house options has helped build a bullpen rich in both talent and cost-effectiveness. Overall, the team kept strong performers from 2024 and dropped the underperforming players. How Can This Group Improve? While the ZiPS projections are encouraging, there’s always room for growth, and several key factors could elevate the Twins’ bullpen to even greater heights in 2025. Louie Varland in a Relief Role: Varland struggled as a starter last season, so moving to the bullpen could unlock his full potential. His fastball and cutter have the makings of elite relief weapons. Focusing on shorter outings should allow him to add velocity and sharpen his command, which the Twins saw in 2023 when he was used as a reliever for the team’s postseason run. Varland could be a pivotal piece in the late innings, if he embraces this role. A Full Season of Cole Sands: Sands quietly emerged as a dependable option in 2024, and the Twins are counting on him to take another step forward in 2025. In 62 games, he posted a 3.28 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. For the first time in his career, he used his cutter more than his four-seamer and increased its velocity from 88.5 MPH to 90.8 MPH. His four-seamer (31.2%), cutter (29.7%), and curveball (29.4%) each saw a significant jump in Whiff% in a bullpen role. There is a chance he can improve as he gets another full season in the bullpen. Brock Stewart’s Return: Stewart’s 2024 season was cut short by another shoulder injury, but his electric stuff was evident when healthy. If he can return to form, Stewart offers another dynamic arm capable of handling high-leverage situations. In 2023, the Twins saw Stewart post a 0.65 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 12.7 K/9. His recovery could be a significant X-factor in the bullpen’s success, but it seems likely that the Twins will limit his workload to keep him healthy for the season’s second half. What Pieces Are Missing? Despite the promising projection, there are still ways the Twins can enhance their bullpen’s performance. Specifically, the team lacks a proven high-leverage left-handed reliever. Caleb Thielbar’s departure leaves a middle-inning role. Kody Funderburk and Brent Headrick are the only lefties on the 40-man roster, so the Twins could be in the market for a more reliable lefty. There is hope this duo could improve and step into the vacated high-leverage lefty role. Free agency or trades could address this need, but the Twins’ front office is reluctant to invest heavily in relief pitching. Historically, they’ve preferred to allocate resources elsewhere, relying on development and minor-league signings to build their bullpen. If they stick with this approach, the team may need to identify a breakout candidate or use creative roster moves to fill this gap. The Minnesota Twins’ bullpen is poised for a breakout season in 2025, with a mix of established stars and rising talents ready to lead the charge. Louie Varland’s transition, a healthy Brock Stewart, and a full season of Cole Sands could take the group to the next level. However, addressing the lack of a high-leverage lefty could be the final puzzle piece. Whether through internal development or an external addition, the Twins have an opportunity to solidify their bullpen as the best in baseball and make a deep postseason run. If the projections hold, 2025 could be a banner year for pitching in Minnesota. What stands out about the team’s ZiPS projections for the bullpen? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Willi Castro has been a breakout star for the Twins over the last two seasons. Would Minnesota move on from Castro before he becomes a free agent at season’s end? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins face a crucial offseason decision regarding utilityman Willi Castro. Arbitration projects him to earn $6.4 million in 2025, which impacts the team’s payroll flexibility. Despite his impending free agency, Castro’s value remains high. According to FanGraphs, he was worth $19.8 million in 2023 and $24.8 million in 2024, underscoring his ability to impact the game in various ways. If the Twins decide to move on, trading Castro could bring back assets to bolster the current and future roster. Let’s examine two hypothetical (but plausible) trade scenarios. Trade Scenario #1: Partnering with the Milwaukee Brewers The Proposal: Twins Receive: LHP Bryan Hudson Brewers Receive: UTL Willi Castro The Brewers, known for maximizing versatility and emphasizing defense, would be a natural fit for Castro. He could slot in as their starting second baseman, pushing Brice Turang to shortstop and solidifying the middle infield. His speed, switch-hitting ability, and defensive flexibility align well with Milwaukee’s needs and preferences. Last season, Castro became the first MLB player to make at least 25 appearances at five or more defensive positions in a season. H also e hit .247/.331/.385 (.717) with 31 doubles, five triples, and 12 home runs in 158 games. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 2.15 WAR per season. In exchange, the Twins target Milwaukee’s surplus of left-handed relievers. Bryan Hudson is coming off a breakout season and would be a massive upgrade to Minnesota’s already strong bullpen. Last season, he posted a 1.73 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP with 9.0 K/9 and 2.5 WAR. He was among the NL’s best left-handed relievers, and the Twins clearly need a dominant lefty. He is still pre-arbitration eligible and under team control through the 2029 season. The Twins may have to include another piece in this trade or send some money to Milwaukee to balance the deal. Trade Scenario #2: Sending Castro to the Seattle Mariners The Proposal: Twins Receive: LHP Tayler Saucedo and INF Tai Peete Mariners Receive: UTL Willi Castro The Mariners have had disappointing finishes in the last two seasons, and adding a player like Castro could help them address offensive inconsistencies while providing depth across multiple positions. Currently, Seattle has Dylan Moore (2B) and Donovan Solano (3B) at the top of their depth chart. Castro’s versatility would help them at multiple defensive positions, and his 158 games played would have led the team. With sights set on a postseason push, Seattle may see Castro as a cost-effective upgrade who brings a unique skill set to complement their core players. For the Twins, this deal helps the club address their lack of left-handed relievers while adding a prospect. Tayler Saucedo posted a 3.49 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and an 8.8 K/9. He is first-year arbitration eligible and is under team control through the 2027 season. Tai Peete is a versatile defender with a solid offensive profile and would add another layer of depth to the organization’s farm system. The 18-year-old played at Low-A last season and slashed .269/.343/.408 (.751) with 42 extra-base hits in 115 games. He has high upside but is a long way from the big leagues. Weighing the Options Both scenarios offer intriguing possibilities for the Twins. Trading Castro would be a tough pill to swallow, given his contributions to the team over the past two seasons. However, leveraging his value on an expiring contract could yield meaningful returns, while carving more than $6 million off Minnesota's tight budget. A deal with the Brewers addresses bullpen needs while offering immediate relief depth, while a trade with the Mariners delivers a left-handed reliever and more depth for an already strong farm system. Ultimately, the Twins’ decision will depend on their evaluation of Castro’s future role and ability to navigate financial constraints. It seems unlikely that the Twins will retain Castro after this season, so now might be the optimal time to trade him. Moving him now could free up payroll and position the team for long-term success, but only if the return meets the organization’s lofty standards. Which trade makes the most sense for the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Some front offices have been very active this winter, while the Twins’ front office has sat on the sidelines and let the market play out. Looking ahead, there is no path to a passing grade for the Twins’ offseason moves. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports As the offseason unfolds, national outlets are rolling out their early grades for teams based on winter transactions. For the Minnesota Twins, however, it’s hard to envision any scenario where the front office emerges with a passing grade. Ownership-imposed payroll limitations and the reality of subtracting value via free-agent departures and likely salary dumps (while gaining little in return) paint a bleak picture for the weeks leading to spring training. The Twins are staring down a challenging decision-making process. Key players like Christian Vázquez, Chris Paddack, and Willi Castro are all on expiring, moderately expensive contracts. Minnesota’s current payroll projects are in the neighborhood of $140 million, and the ownership group would like that total to be closer to $130 million. Trading one or more of these players seems likely, but the return is expected to be underwhelming. None of these pieces are the kind of players who command top-tier prospects or impact talent in a deal. Yet, dealing them would weaken the team’s depth, which this front office highly values. Take Vázquez, for example. The veteran catcher was brought in to stabilize the position and guide the pitching staff. Trading him would leave the Twins heavily reliant on Ryan Jeffers, who has struggled with consistency in the past. Minnesota has added some catching depth this winter by trading for Diego Cartaya. However, Minnesota has employed an even split of playing time behind the plate in recent seasons, and it's not clear that Cartaya would be a viable backstop for 75-plus games. Similarly, trading Paddack or Castro removes insurance from an already injury-prone rotation and lineup. If Paddack is dealt, Simeon Woods Richardson or David Festa will slide into the fifth spot in the rotation, which might be an upgrade over Paddack—but would reduce their resiliency in case of an injury. Castro’s value comes from his defensive versatility, but the Twins might be able to use someone like Austin Martin or Michael Helman in a utility role. These are calculated risks, but they only make sense if the front office believes some other players on the roster can take a step forward. Could Minnesota swing for a bigger deal to alter the trajectory of their offseason? The possibility exists, but it’s not without significant risk. Trading from the young core would be a gamble. The candidates for such a move—Royce Lewis, first and foremost—represent not only the future but also the present hope of sustainable success. The organization has one of baseball’s best farm systems, and prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez or Marco Raya could be used as trade chips. However, depleting the pipeline has long-term consequences that the Twins have historically avoided. It’s not as if this front office is incapable of pulling off a win-now move. The trade of Luis Arraez for Pablo López is a shining example from two years ago. That deal worked out as close to ideally as the front office could hope, with López anchoring the rotation and signed to a long-term deal with the club. But those kinds of trades are exceedingly rare. It would take another masterstroke for the Twins to escape this offseason unscathed. On paper, Minnesota might already have the best roster in the AL Central, which some fans might find hard to believe after last year’s collapse. There are no glaring holes on the roster, and they have depth at multiple positions. Many of Minnesota’s top prospects finished last season at Double-A or higher, putting them on a path to debut in 2025. The challenge now is returning to 2023’s level of success, while working within financial constraints. This roster can compete if healthy, but health has been anything but a guarantee for this franchise. The reality is that the Twins’ front office is operating in a nearly impossible situation. Any significant subtraction will hurt the team’s chances in 2024, while any addition seems unlikely to move the needle enough to justify the cost. Grading this offseason will be about context, but the final marks won't be kind, even understanding the challenges. Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll must walk a tightrope in the weeks ahead. Their decisions will shape not only the 2025 season, but also the perception of this regime’s ability to build a contender under constraints. No matter what they do, it’s hard to see a path to a grade above a C for this offseason. The pieces don’t fit, the math doesn’t work, and the Twins are left in the unenviable position of trying to tread water while the rest of baseball races ahead. What grade has the front office gotten for the offseason so far? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

It was widely reported that the Twins were expected to trim the club’s payroll for the 2025 season. However, quotes from the team’s newly appointed general manager might point to the contrary. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins have habitually found ways to remain competitive while managing a middle-tier payroll. Most projections have the Twins sitting with a payroll north of $140 million for 2025, and it had previously been reported that the ownership wanted to be closer to $130 million. However, in a surprising shift, the team may no longer be expected to reduce payroll this offseason. This revelation, shared by GM Jeremy Zoll, opens the door for intriguing possibilities as the organization navigates its offseason priorities. On Thursday, Zoll addressed the financial outlook for the club, noting that trimming payroll is not a driving force behind the team’s decision-making process. “We feel like the spot we’re in is something that allows us to be creative and opportunistic,” Zoll said. “[We’re] continuing to vet all the different options and ways that we can make the team better. But at this point, we don’t feel like cuts are in order from an overall payroll perspective. Just working to find ways to explore every opportunity to do the best we can.” For Twins fans, this is an encouraging sign. Over the last decade, the team has walked a delicate balance of building competitive rosters while maintaining financial flexibility. Yet, this offseason’s lack of a mandate to cut payroll suggests confidence in the team’s financial health and a willingness to invest in the club’s immediate future. It may also be tied to other reports that the sale of the franchise is trending toward completion. New owners may be more willing to invest in the team’s payroll than the Pohlads have been in recent years. Many in the industry expected that the Twins were attempting to shop multiple veteran players this winter, including Chris Paddack, Christian Vázquez, and Willi Castro. Trade speculation around these players has increased recently, especially following the Twins’ acquisitions of two catchers who played at Triple-A last season in the form of Diego Cartaya and Mickey Gasper. If the right opportunity arises, these moves might make it easier for Minnesota to part with Vazquez or Ryan Jeffers. “From our perspective, building out our catching depth feels really good,” Zoll said. “It always feels like you can never have enough quality catching options. We felt like it was an opportunity to try to catch some upside, and we really love the package of tools [Cartaya] brings to the table and the reputation he has from a makeup perspective.” This shift doesn’t mean the Twins will recklessly pursue high-priced free agents or load the roster with big contracts. Instead, Zoll’s comments indicate a more nuanced approach with a commitment to staying agile and opportunistic. This approach could mean adding a high-impact player if the situation is right, retaining current talent, or exploring creative trade opportunities to address roster needs. It’s important to note that baseball’s unpredictability means situations can evolve quickly. As any seasoned baseball executive will tell you, it only takes one phone call to change the course of an offseason. A surprising trade proposal, a free agent unexpectedly within reach, or a sudden shift in the market could prompt the Twins to reevaluate their plans. The lack of pressure to cut payroll also highlights a level of stability within the organization. Over the last few years, the Derek Falvey-led front office has focused on building a sustainable model for success. In that model, they have prioritized player development, targeted acquisitions, and strategic spending. This framework has allowed the Twins to remain competitive while avoiding the dramatic boom-and-bust cycles that plague some franchises. Minnesota’s roster might already be set with only five weeks remaining until spring training. However, as Zoll’s comments suggest, the Twins will remain open to opportunities to improve the club. Whether by retaining key contributors, making a splash in the free-agent market, or engineering a trade that adds a difference-maker, the Twins are signaling they’re ready to take calculated steps forward. And in the unpredictable world of baseball, that’s all fans can ask for. Will the Twins enter the 2025 season with a payroll above $140 million? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Griffin Jax is staying in the Twins’ bullpen for 2025. However, the broader baseball community may not have noticed how valuable he has been in recent seasons. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images This offseason has been filled with speculation about Griffin Jax’s role with the Minnesota Twins. Rumors swirled about possibly moving him back to the starting rotation, following examples set by pitchers like Reynaldo López and Seth Lugo. However, the Twins have put those rumors to rest, at least for now, with GM Jeremy Zoll confirming Jax will remain in the bullpen for the 2025 season. While this decision may have disappointed fans hoping to see Jax take on a more significant role, it’s a smart move that solidifies Minnesota’s bullpen and leverages Jax’s elite skill set in high-leverage situations. "It's something we've been working through heavily throughout the offseason with Griffin, his agent, his family, all those things," Zoll said on the Inside Twins show. "As we've worked through all that, our plan is to keep Griff in the bullpen for 2025." Jax's Exclusion from MLB’s Top-10 Relievers List Despite his stellar 2024 campaign, Jax was left off MLB.com’s recent list of the top-10 relievers in the game. This omission highlights how undervalued Jax remains in national discussions, even as his numbers speak for themselves. He had a 2.03 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts in 71 innings pitched in 2024. Jax finished with ten saves and allowed just four home runs all year. He was worth 2.8 WAR, tied for seventh-most among all MLB relief pitchers. The Twins clearly recognize his value, even if the broader baseball world hasn’t caught on yet. Rotation Depth vs. Bullpen Needs The argument for moving Jax to the rotation hinges on his background as a starter and the success other teams have had transitioning relievers into starting roles. However, Minnesota’s current roster construction doesn’t necessitate such a move. The Twins have a wealth of starting pitching depth in the upper minors <knock on wood>, with Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Marco Raya all projected to begin 2025 at Triple-A St. Paul. This pipeline of young talent provides ample options for the rotation without disrupting the bullpen. Conversely, the bullpen is a more pressing area of need. While Jhoan Duran remains one of the game’s most electrifying relievers, the Twins lack proven depth behind him and Jax. Cole Sands emerged as another late-inning option last season, and other young arms could set into a more significant role. Keeping Jax in the bullpen ensures the Twins have two reliable late-inning arms to anchor a unit that is still developing consistency. "Obviously, he was tremendously valuable in 2024," Zoll said. "We feel like he's one of the best relievers in the game and feel really good about that role and plan for the upcoming year, and know Griff's excited about that as well." The Potential for a Trade One wrinkle in this story is the possibility of a trade involving either Jax or Duran. Both pitchers are entering arbitration and will become increasingly expensive in the coming years. Duran will earn $4.1 million in 2025 and Jax will earn $2.4 million. The Twins have not ruled out the idea of moving one of their top relievers if the right deal materializes, though Zoll’s comments suggest such a move is unlikely in the near term. If Jax continues to excel, he could become an attractive trade chip for a team looking to bolster its bullpen. For now, the Twins appear committed to maximizing his value as a reliever. Lessons from Around the League The Twins can learn from how other teams handle similar situations. The transition of pitchers like López and Lugo demonstrates the value of flexibility and highlights the risks of removing an elite reliever from their comfort zone. Minnesota hopes that Jax’s continued dominance will make such a transition unnecessary, allowing him to remain a cornerstone of their bullpen for years to come. "At the end of the day, through the different conversations in the offseason with Derek (Falvey) and Rocco (Baldelli) and Griff and the whole group, we feel like there's a lot of alignment for the upcoming year," Zoll said. "Everyone's in a really good spot with the decision. It's definitely something Griff has thought about and processed. At this point, he feels good about that decision and we're all on the same page for the upcoming year. Not ever ruling anything out for the future, but ultimately think this puts everyone in the best spot for success in 2025." As the 2025 season approaches, Griffin Jax’s role in the Twins’ bullpen seems firmly established. His ability to shut down opponents in critical situations makes him vital to Minnesota’s roster. While the debate about his long-term role may persist, the Twins’ decision to keep him in the bullpen is a testament to their confidence in his abilities and commitment to building a winning team. For now, Jax will continue to fly under the radar as one of baseball’s most valuable relievers, even if MLB.com’s top-10 list doesn’t reflect it. Should the Twins have moved Jax to the rotation? Is Jax one of baseball’s top-10 relievers? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

What if? It’s a question that fans can ponder for decades after critical moments, seasons, and games. For the Twins, one player’s season stands out as the team’s biggest “What If” moment. Image courtesy of © Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports Throughout the Minnesota Twins’ long and storied history, countless “what if” moments have occurred. What if Tony Oliva hadn’t injured his knee? What if Kirby Puckett had remained healthy beyond 1995? What if Francisco Liriano's elbow had held up in 2006? Yet, no singular moment casts a longer shadow than July 7, 2010, when Justin Morneau’s career trajectory changed forever. Recently, MLB.com picked out some of the biggest “what if” seasons in recent history because Kyle Tucker had a tremendous start to 2024 before landing on the IL. For the article, the players on the list had to play fewer than 100 games and included names like Jacob DeGrom (2021), Troy Tulowitzki (2014), and Ivan Rodriguez (2000). Justin Morneau and his tremendous start to 2010 also make the list. From 2006-2009, Morneau was a cornerstone for the Twins and one of the most feared sluggers in the game. Over that span, the Canadian first baseman averaged 30 homers per season with a 132 OPS+. He collected the 2006 AL MVP award, was the runner-up two years later, earned two Silver Sluggers, and represented Minnesota in three All-Star Games. He was a symbol of consistent excellence and on a tremendous career path that could have put him among the all-time Twins greats. But in 2010, Morneau found another gear. He posted video game-like numbers through the season’s first half: a .343/.436/.620 (1.056) slash line. His 44 extra-base hits tied for third-most in the Majors, and his advanced metrics underscored his dominance. His wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) sat at an otherworldly 183, meaning he was 83% better than the league-average hitter. His 4.7 WAR was more than he accumulated in the 2006 or 2008 seasons when he was a top-2 MVP finisher. He wasn’t just on track for a second MVP award because he was rewriting his career peak. Then came Game 81. In the top of the eighth inning against the Blue Jays, Morneau slid into second base, attempting to break up a double play. His helmeted head collided with the knee of Toronto infielder John McDonald, and Morneau stayed on the ground momentarily before walking off under his own power. At the time, the severity of the injury wasn’t apparent, but it was soon revealed that Morneau had suffered a concussion. That slide ended his 2010 season and, in many ways, his days as one of baseball’s elite hitters. Without Morneau, the Twins forged ahead, clinching the AL Central title behind a deep roster and contributions from Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Francisco Liriano, and others. But it was clear that the lineup wasn’t the same without their MVP-caliber first baseman. In the postseason, the Twins were swept by the Yankees, with their offense struggling to capitalize in key moments. It’s impossible not to wonder how a healthy Morneau might have changed that series and the Twins’ October fortunes. The aftereffects of Morneau’s concussion lingered far beyond 2010. He returned in 2011 but was a shadow of his former self, slashing .227/.285/.333 (.618) with a career-worst -1.1 WAR in 69 games as recurring symptoms derailed his season. Though he would enjoy moments of resurgence (including winning a batting title with the Rockies in 2014), Morneau never again approached the power numbers he posted in his prime. Over his final seven seasons, he never hit more than 19 home runs in a year. “It’s something that will always be with me," Morneau told ESPN.com's Jim Caple in the spring of 2015 while the Rockies. “I look at it like a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery -- every time he throws or his elbow gets sore or something happens, you’re going to go back to that. I just needed time to build confidence on it. The further away you get from it, the better you feel. But it’s one of those things that will never ever be out of my mind or be completely gone. That’s the reality of the situation. But you know what? I feel good today and am able to go out and compete, and that’s all I can ever ask for." For Twins fans, the “what if” surrounding Morneau’s 2010 season is unavoidable. What if he had stayed healthy? What if he had continued his torrid pace into the second half and postseason? Could the Twins have finally exorcised their playoff demons? It’s not just about the awards and accolades that might have been. Morneau’s injury robbed him of a chance to solidify himself as one of the great hitters of his era. For fans, it represents a pivotal turning point in a franchise that, despite its successes, has always seemed to be one step away from ultimate glory. Morneau’s career remains one of resilience and class. His induction into the Twins Hall of Fame in 2021 was a fitting tribute to a player who gave everything to the organization. But for anyone who watched him in his prime, the memory of his 2010 season that was cut short just as it reached historic levels will always linger as the biggest “what if” in Minnesota Twins history. Are there other “what if” moments that should rank above Morneau’s 2010 season? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Developing into a regular big-league player is challenging, and some player’s skill sets are better suited to becoming above-average regulars. For two former Twins players, their story is one of stalled development. So, what went wrong? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins made headlines in 2009 when they signed a pair of international teenagers who quickly became cornerstones of their top-ranked farm system. Max Kepler, a lanky outfielder from Germany, and Miguel Sanó, a Dominican phenom with prodigious power, were tabbed as future stars destined to lead the Twins into a new era of success. As top prospects, their development was closely watched, and their MLB debuts brought with them waves of optimism. However, as their Twins tenures unfolded, neither player lived up to the lofty expectations set during their formative years. Instead, their careers tell the tale of unfulfilled potential and stalled development. Max Kepler: The Enigma of Consistency Kepler’s Twins tenure was a puzzle. From his debut in 2015, his athleticism and defensive acumen stood out. He became one of the league’s premier defenders in right field, routinely saving runs and earning high marks from advanced metrics. But his offense, despite flashes of brilliance, never found the consistency needed to make him a true star. The 2019 season appeared to be Kepler’s breakout campaign. He slugged 36 home runs, posted a .855 OPS, and finished with down-ballot MVP votes for the AL Central-winning Twins. However, context matters. That year saw baseballs flying out of ballparks at a historic rate, leading many to question whether Kepler’s power surge was sustainable. Unfortunately, the following seasons provided the answer: it wasn’t. A deep dive into Kepler’s offensive profile shows a player who never fully realized his potential at the plate. His career batting average on balls in play (BABIP) consistently hovered well below league average, fueling speculation that he might be plagued by bad luck. His career BABIP of .258 is 38 points below the MLB average. Yet, year after year, his BABIP stubbornly resisted normalization, suggesting that Kepler’s issues stemmed from something more intrinsic. A pull-heavy approach and frequent weak contact limited his ability to adjust when pitchers exploited his tendencies. Despite his elite defense and occasional power surges, Kepler’s offensive shortcomings turned him into a league-average hitter rather than the cornerstone the Twins envisioned. Being league average has value, but expectations were higher for Kepler. Miguel Sanó: A Tale of Power and Whiffs If Kepler’s career has been a story of steady mediocrity, Sanó’s has been one of extreme peaks and valleys. After finishing third in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2015, Sanó appeared destined for stardom. His raw power was unmatched, and his ability to drive the ball to all fields made him a terrifying presence in the batter’s box. By 2017, he earned an All-Star nod and mashed 28 home runs in 114 games. But even then, cracks were beginning to show. Sanó’s strikeout rate was always a concern but ballooned to unsustainable levels in subsequent seasons. He struck out in 44% of his plate appearances in 2020 and has compiled a 36.5 K% in his big-league career. While he continued to hit mammoth home runs, his inability to make consistent contact prevented his power from translating into sustained offensive value. Opposing pitchers exploited his weaknesses, and Sanó’s approach at the plate offered little in the way of adjustments. Defensively, Sanó’s struggles compounded his offensive issues. Initially pegged as a third baseman, he was eventually moved across the diamond to first base, where his defensive shortcomings were less glaring but still noticeable. From 2020-22, he combined for a 101 OPS+ with 298 strikeouts in 808 PA with a 0.1 WAR. By the end of his tenure with the Twins, Sanó’s liabilities in the field and at the plate made it difficult to justify his place on the roster. Unfulfilled Promise Both Kepler and Sanó brought value to the Twins during their careers, but neither reached the ceiling once projected for them as teenage phenoms. Kepler’s defense and Sanó’s power were undeniable assets, but the inability to pair those strengths with consistent offensive production kept them from ascending to superstardom. The Twins’ decision to sign both players in 2009 represented a bold investment in international scouting and player development. That investment paid dividends to an extent, as both were key contributors to playoff teams. However, the careers of Kepler and Sanó stand as reminders of how difficult it is to translate potential into sustained success at the big-league level. As the Twins look toward the future, the lessons of Kepler and Sanó’s stalled development loom large. Prospect hype is tantalizing, but the path from teenage phenom to franchise cornerstone is fraught with challenges. For Kepler and Sanó, their journeys underscore the thin line between good and great in Major League Baseball. What stands out about the Twins tenures of Kepler and Sanó? How can the Twins avoid similar stalled development with current top prospects? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins farm system has plenty to get excited about during the upcoming season. Here are five prospect storylines to follow in 2025. Image courtesy of William Parmeter With the 2025 season fast approaching, the Minnesota Twins farm system is buzzing with anticipation. Between elite talents on the cusp of the big leagues and under-the-radar players ready to break out, the season promises to be filled with intrigue. Here are five key prospect storylines to follow as the year unfolds. 1. Walker Jenkins’ March to the Majors Few players in the Twins’ system have generated as much excitement as Jenkins. The fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft has quickly cemented himself as one of baseball’s top prospects. He finished the year at Double A as a 19-year-old, while hitting .282/.394/.439 with 32 extra-base hits in 82 games. More impressively, he coaxed more walks (56) than strikeouts (47) while facing older pitchers in all but eight of his at-bats. After his performance in 2024, Jenkins enters 2025 knocking on the door of the major leagues. The Twins have a crowded outfield at the big-league level, but Jenkins’s combination of power, plate discipline, and defensive prowess could force the organization’s hand. If he continues to rake in the upper minors, it’s not a matter of if, but when he will debut. Twins fans should circle August as a potential timeline for his arrival. The real question: how impactful can he be once he arrives in Minnesota? 2. Other Top Prospects Poised to Debut While Jenkins is the headliner, he’s not the only prospect in the system ready to make an impact. Outfielder Emanuel Rodriguez could claim a regular role in the Twins’ outfield by mid-2025, since he finished last season at Triple-A St. Paul. In 47 games, he hit .280/.459/.567 with 25 extra-base hits and a 62-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In many other farm systems, Rodriguez would be the top-ranked prospect. Rodriguez’s advanced approach at the plate and defensive versatility make him a prime candidate to fill a need at any outfield position, depending on the Twins’ roster configuration. Outside of Rodriguez, the Twins have plenty of other depth in the system’s upper levels. Out of the current Twins Daily Top-20 Prospects, half finished last season at Double or Triple A. Luke Keaschall, Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, and Cory Lewis each rank among Twins Daily’s top-10 prospects and have a strong chance of debuting in 2025. 3. Who Will Be the Next Breakout Twins Starting Pitcher? The Twins have successfully developed homegrown pitchers in recent seasons, including Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. The 2025 season could see another arm take a leap. Marco Raya reached Triple A last season, a month after turning 22. The Twins limited him to fewer than 75 pitches in 98% of his first 55 appearances, but he ended the year by crossing the 75-pitch mark five times in seven starts. The right-handed pitcher utilizes a five-pitch mix, which should help him to get through lineups two or three times—if the Twins allow him to pitch over 100 innings for the first time in 2025. Another name to watch is C.J. Culpepper, whose combination of size and an improving five-pitch mix makes him an intriguing prospect. Last season, he reached Double A and posted a 3.55 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a 26.8% strikeout rate. With solid numbers in the upper minors, Culpepper could be a midseason call-up candidate if injuries or performance issues arise in the big-league rotation. 4. Who Will Be the Next Breakout Twins Hitter? Every year, a prospect seemingly comes out of nowhere to grab headlines. Last season, Keaschall played through a torn elbow ligament but played well enough to be considered the team’s number three prospect. In 2025, Kaelen Culpepper could be that player. Last year’s first-round pick boasts an enticing mix of speed and power; he posted a solid 90th-percentile exit velocity during his time at Fort Myers. He’s also considered a very patient hitter, with a mature understanding of the strike zone (11 walks in 112 PA) that will help him as he moves into the upper minors. Brandon Winokur, a power-hitting multi-position defender, is another candidate. Winokur’s impressive athleticism and raw power have drawn attention since his selection in the third round of the 2023 draft. In 2024, as a 19-year-old, he spent the full season at Low A, posting a .249/.327/.434 slash line across 94 games, including 36 extra-base hits. He showed notable improvement at the plate, reducing his strikeout rate by more than 4% and boosting his walk rate by 2.7% compared to his professional debut. 5. Potential Trade Packages With the Twins in the thick of contention, their prospect depth gives them ammunition to pursue upgrades at the trade deadline. However, the front office has hesitated to deal prospects away over the last two trade deadlines. This strategy may be based on the disastrous 2022 trade deadline, when Minnesota added Jorge López and Tyler Mahle. The front office could use a combination of young big-league players like José Miranda, Austin Martin, or Edouard Julien to address minor roster needs, but those players' value is low after poor 2024 seasons. If the Twins want to swing big, it will take one of their top prospects. For example, if the Twins seek a frontline starter, a package centered around a prospect like Rodriguez or Keaschall might be necessary. Conversely, more modest additions could involve mid-tier prospects, giving the team flexibility depending on their position in the standings. As the season unfolds, these prospect storylines will provide plenty of drama for Twins fans. Whether it’s the debut of future stars like Jenkins or the emergence of unexpected contributors, 2025 promises to be a pivotal year in shaping the franchise’s future. Buckle up, Twins Territory, because it’s going to be an exciting ride. Which storyline will you be following most closely? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Ryan Jeffers seems like a player who is part of the Twins' long-term plans, but sometimes, the front office must shake up the team’s core. Here are two trade proposals for sending Jeffers to the San Diego Padres. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Few front offices are as aggressive or creative regarding trades as AJ Preller's San Diego Padres. After an offseason filled with bold moves and big contracts, the Padres are now in a peculiar spot. They need to shed payroll while addressing glaring roster needs, with catcher sitting near the top of that list. While Christian Vázquez has been a popular name linked to San Diego, another Twins catcher checks all the Preller boxes: Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is young, cost-controlled, and still carries significant upside. In many ways, he’s an ideal target for a Padres team trying to remain competitive while managing its finances. An argument can also be made for Minnesota to try to extend him. The Twins must find some wiggle room in their payroll to make additions, particularly if they can address a bullpen need or bolster their farm system in the process. Here are two trade scenarios that could make sense for both sides. Proposal 1: A Cash-Neutral Swap for Wandy Peralta The Padres have made it clear they’re looking to trim payroll (currently projected at over $200 million), but they can’t do so at the expense of roster functionality. Wandy Peralta is a veteran lefty who landed in San Diego before last season via free agency. He signed a four-year, $16.5-million contract, but each year is a player option for over $4 million per season. The Twins’ front office tends to avoid spending money on the bullpen, but Peralta’s track record might change their opinion. Peralta is a reliable bullpen arm with a knack for generating ground balls and neutralizing left-handed hitters (.649 career OPS vs. LHH). Still, he is a potential candidate to be moved if the Padres can find value in a different position. Last season, Peralta posted a 3.99 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in 46 appearances. His most significant issue in recent seasons has been his propensity to allow home runs. Peralta’s home run rate has surged from 0.3 per nine innings in 2022 to 1.2 in 2023 to 1.4 in 2024. Perhaps the Twins can find a way for him to get back to his previous levels. In this scenario, the Twins send Jeffers straight-up to the Padres, for Peralta. The deal is cash-neutral, since Jeffers is projected to make $4.7 million in arbitration this year, but it provides both teams with something they need. The Padres get a youngish, controllable catcher, while the Twins add a dependable lefty to their bullpen, something the club is missing. From Minnesota’s perspective, this deal may seem light in terms of return for Jeffers, but the Twins are in win-now mode, and acquiring a proven bullpen arm could pay immediate dividends. Meanwhile, the Padres shore up their catching situation without adding to their payroll, a win-win for Preller’s front office. Proposal 2: A Multi-Team Deal with Salary Relief and Young Talent If the Padres want to make a bigger splash, a three-team deal could be the answer. Let’s say the Padres want Jeffers and need to offload a chunk of their salary to stay under their own budget limit. Enter a third team, perhaps the Reds or Athletics, willing to absorb a contract like that of Luis Arraez or Dylan Cease in exchange for prospects. The Padres receive Jeffers and cash relief in this scenario, by moving a mid-level salary. The Twins, meanwhile, could target one of the Padres’ intriguing young arms, like Henry Baez, Isaiah Lowe, or Victor Lizarraga. The third team gets involved by taking on salary, while picking up a low-level prospect or two from the Padres. This trade offers long-term upside for the Twins by adding controllable pitching talent, while San Diego upgrades at catcher and clears some breathing room on the payroll. It’s the kind of outside-the-box maneuvering that Preller is known for, and could satisfy all parties involved. Why Jeffers is a Fit for San Diego Jeffers represents everything the Padres covet: youth, affordability, and potential. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a .791 OPS while playing in a career-high 122 games. Over the last two seasons, he has been worth -15 runs defensively, but he performed better in CS Above Average and Pop Time last season. While Vázquez might be the more obvious trade choice given his expiring contract, Jeffers’s age (27) and contract status make him an appealing medium-term piece. Multiple contending teams would likely want to add Jeffers, but the Padres are a natural fit. Whether it’s a straight swap for immediate help (like Peralta) or a more complex deal involving multiple teams, there are paths to making this work. Twins fans, stay tuned: this could get interesting. Which trade proposal makes the most sense for the Twins? Should the front office attempt to trade Jeffers? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Louie Varland is destined for a bullpen role in 2025. How will his pitch mix change with that shift, and how can he attack hitters? Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins have a long history of developing starting pitchers who eventually find their calling in the bullpen. Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, and Taylor Rogers are recent examples of former starters finding a late-inning role in the bullpen. As Louie Varland transitions to a relief role in 2025, the Twins have an opportunity to maximize his unique skill set. With Varland’s five-pitch arsenal and improved sinker performance in 2024, the question now becomes: what does the best version of Varland (the reliever) look like? The Five-Pitch Foundation In 2024, Varland leaned on a four-seam fastball/cutter combination, while modestly incorporating a sinker, curveball, and changeup. His fastball sat in the mid-90s, touching 97-98 mph in short stints, and his slider-ish cutter remained a reliable weapon. Meanwhile, the sinker emerged as a viable option, and his curve and changeup added depth to his repertoire. Typically, relievers cut back on the number of pitches they utilize when shifting from starter to reliever. However, the Twins have seen Jax succeed using a five-pitch mix, a model that Varland can follow in his transition. Here’s how he can optimize his pitch mix against righties and lefties. Against Right-Handed Hitters Primary Weapon: Four-Seam Fastball (45%) Varland’s four-seam fastball is his bread and butter, especially in relief. It’s a pitch that plays well up in the zone, due to its rising action and increased velocity in shorter outings. In 2024, his four-seamer generated a 29.9 Whiff% and a 23.9 Put Away%. It was a pitch that he worked on extensively in St. Paul last year, as he focused on locating it in the upper third of the zone. Against righties, Varland should focus on elevating it to generate swings and misses or weak contact. Secondary Weapon: Slider/Cutter (40%) The cutter remains Varland’s most trusted secondary pitch. It’s a pitch he can throw early in counts for weak contact or use to fool hitters who try to cheat on his four-seam fastball. Last season, he threw this pitch 36% of the time against righties, so there can be an expectation that he will increase the usage of the pitch in a relief role. The issue with it is, it doesn't miss bats quite the way you'd like to see from a breaking ball-shaped cutter. Its velocity is too close to that of his four-seamer to do that, but when he works as a starter, it also isn't hard enough to bully hitters the way a power cutter sometimes can. With an extra two ticks on it in relief, we have seen the offering play up nicely. Situational Weapon: Curveball/Knuckle curve (10-15%) The knuckle curve gives Varland a weapon to induce soft contact. Last season against righties, it was a pitch with a 42.3 Whiff%, a .176 opponent SLG and a -3° launch angle. It’s a good weapon to keep in his back pocket, especially since it is over 12 mph slower than his four-seamer. His sinker and changeup were used sparingly against right-handed hitters last season (45 pitches), so he will likely focus on his better pitches in a relief role. Pitchers don’t need as full a repertoire out of the bullpen because they won’t face a lineup multiple times. Varland can throw his best pitches with a higher velocity. Against Left-Handed Hitters Primary Weapon: Four Seamer (45-50%) His four-seamer has been a significant part of his arsenal, and Varland uses it even more regularly against lefties than righties. Last season, he held batters to a .254 xBA with a 20.0 Whiff% on the pitch. Elevated fastballs can effectively change eye levels, especially after a steady diet of his secondary offerings. The question here is whether he can get more consistent in his location of the heat. Too often, so far, his high-aimed fastballs end up in the middle of the zone instead. Against righties, he can mitigate that problem by using the sinker a bit more, but sinkers to opposite-handed batters are nitro balls. Thus, barring the development of a truer, higher-riding cutter, he needs to hit his spots on the top rail of the zone with the fastball. Secondary Weapon: Slider/Cutter (25-30%) Although the slider isn’t traditionally a lefty-killer, Varland’s ability to backfoot the pitch makes it a useful situational weapon. It’s not a primary offering, but can be mixed in when needed. Lefties destroyed this pitch last season with a .800 SLG, but his xSLG was over 200 points lower, so there is room for improvement. Most importantly, those numbers came while working as a starter; the pitch can ramp up and be much more potent if he's working in short bursts. Out of his secondary pitches, his slider/cutter had the highest Whiff% and Put Away% versus lefty batsmen. Situational Weapon: Curveball/Knuckle Curve (15-20%) Varland’s curveball is the pitch that keeps lefties honest. It showed flashes of effectiveness in 2024, with a 21.3 Whiff% to help neutralize left-handed power. He should focus on throwing it down and in to draw swings over the top. He throws it in the same location in the zone as his cutter, but the 6-mph difference in the pitches can lead to more swings and misses. Last season, Varland used his changeup nearly 17% of the time against lefties, but the pitch was ineffective at generating swings and misses. He had a 6.7 Whiff% and a 6.3 Put Away% with his changeup. Varland can use the pitch sparingly against lefties, but the rest of his repertoire will hold up better when he needs strikeouts in a relief role. Why This Mix Works Moving to the bullpen is about leveraging Varland’s strengths while simplifying his approach. The four-seam fastball and cutter remain his bread-and-butter pitches against righties and lefties, while the curveball can keep batters off-balance. He seems likely to ditch some of his less-used pitches (perhaps the sinker, if the four-seam fastball command comes along as hoped), while keeping his changeup to use sparingly. By focusing on matchups and situations, Varland can become a versatile, high-leverage weapon for the Twins. Combined with a well-thought-out pitch mix, the added velocity in relief could transform Varland into a dominant late-inning option. If the Twins can hone this approach, they might unlock the best version of Varland yet: a bullpen ace with the tools to dominate any hitter in any situation. What pitch mix makes the most sense for Varland? How should he approach righties and lefties? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins began seeing some value on their side of the Jose Berríos trade during the 2024 season. So, what does ZiPS project for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson in the coming years? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn, Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins made a bold move at the 2021 trade deadline, sending homegrown ace José Berríos to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. Nearly three years later, the trade remains pivotal in both franchises' trajectories. With another season in the books, let's evaluate the trade's current and future impact, focusing on the contributions of Martin and Woods Richardson in 2024 and the broader context of Berríos' value to Toronto. The Berríos Side of the Trade Berríos was an anchor in the Twins' rotation, making two All-Star appearances and consistently providing innings and durability. After the trade, Toronto locked him up with a seven-year, $131 million extension. Following the trade deadline in 2021, he was outstanding, providing Toronto with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 70 1/3 innings. He compiled 1.7 fWAR in two months' worth of starts, which was one of the better stretches of his career. Berríos struggled in 2022 during his first full season in Toronto as something was off for a pitcher who had been one of the AL’s most consistent starters. In 172 innings, he combined for a 5.23 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and -0.3 fWAR. He led all AL pitchers in hits allowed and total earned runs. The end of 2021 and the entire 2022 season were the years of team control Minnesota was trading away with Berríos, so he combined for 1.4 fWAR. Trading Berríos was a tough but necessary decision from the Twins' perspective. He wanted to be paid like a front-line starter, but that wouldn’t happen with the Twins. With the team out of contention in 2021, flipping him for controllable young talent aligned with their long-term goals. However, the deal’s ultimate success hinges on the development and contributions of Martin and Woods Richardson. Austin Martin’s 2024 Contributions and Future Outlook Martin’s journey since the trade has been anything but linear. Once viewed as a high-floor, contact-oriented hitter with defensive versatility, injuries, and swing mechanics issues slowed his ascent. Last season, Martin began impacting the big-league roster despite some growing pains. In 93 games, he hit .253/.318/.352 (.670) with 20 extra-base hits and seven stolen bases. Looking ahead, Martin’s ability to carve out a consistent role will be critical. The Twins value his versatility, and with further development, he could be a key piece as a utility player in their lineup for years. His LA Sweet-Spot%, Squared-Up%, and Chase% were in the 85th percentile or higher even though he didn’t qualify for the leaderboard. Questions remain about his ability to add power and sustain his offensive production, but his 2024 season showed he can make solid contact and get on base regularly. FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski used ZiPs to project Martin’s performance during his remaining years of team control. Martin is seen as a slightly below-average hitter with an OPS+ in the low 90s while also providing minimal WAR per season. If ZiPS holds true, Martin would combine for 3.3 fWAR plus -0.2 fWAR from 2024 for a total of 3.1 fWAR. He would likely become expensive in arbitration to the point where the Twins may non-tender him if his offensive performance doesn’t improve. Simeon Woods Richardson’s Contributions and Future Value Woods Richardson also took significant strides in 2024 as he arguably saved the Twins’ starting rotation in the first half. In 16 first-half starts, he posted a 3.51 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 2.96 SO/W. His second half saw a dip in his performance as he ended the year with a 4.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 133 2/3 innings, showcasing a refined slider that generated a 24% whiff rate. His ability to adjust to the big-league level made him a valuable asset in a pitching staff with multiple injuries. The Twins envision Woods Richardson as a mid-rotation starter, but he showed flashes of his potential upside. His fastball velocity ticked up last season from averaging in the low-90s during his early career to over 93 mph last season. His uptick in velocity helped him rely less on his four-seamer because his other pitches also had more velocity. His contributions in 2024 demonstrated why the Twins were willing to gamble on his upside. Long-term, ZiPS views Woods Richardson as a league-average starter with over 120 innings pitched per season. That player type is valuable in a back-of-the-rotation role. SWR is projected to 9.4 fWAR from 2025-2030 to go with the 1.8 fWAR from 2024 to reach 11.2 fWAR. He was seen as the lesser prospect at the time of the trade, but he has developed to the point where he might produce the most long-term value. Trade Verdict and Long-Term Impact Evaluating the trade nearly three years later, both teams have reasons to be satisfied. Toronto received a reliable starter in Berríos, whose extension ensured the trade wasn’t a short-term rental. Meanwhile, the Twins bolstered their system with two promising players who contributed at the MLB level in 2024. The trade's ultimate verdict will depend on Martin and Woods Richardson’s continued development. If Martin can become a versatile utility player and Woods Richardson solidifies himself as a rotation fixture, the Twins could declare the deal a win. Conversely, if their growth stalls, the Blue Jays' decision to bet on Berríos’ stability might look wiser in hindsight. As it stands, the trade underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of deadline deals. For the Twins, the hope is that Martin and Woods Richardson represent key contributors to their next competitive window. For now, 2024 offered a glimpse of what could be a bright future and a reminder of why trading an established starter like Berríos can be worth the gamble. How should the Twins view the Berríos trade? Can either club be declared the winner of the trade? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Every MLB Draft comes with teams who make surprising picks while trying to find extra value. The 2020 MLB Draft will be talked about forever, and the Twins might have been the draft's biggest loser. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge The 2020 MLB Draft posed unprecedented challenges for front offices across baseball. The COVID-19 pandemic shut down high school and college seasons, forcing teams to lean heavily on previous scouting reports, data analysis, and virtual interviews. While some organizations struck gold in this shortened five-round draft, the Minnesota Twins are now widely regarded as one of the biggest losers, as Baseball America’s five-year review casts a harsh light on their decisions. Contextual Challenges Revisiting the draft’s circumstances is essential to understand Minnesota's struggles fully. The pandemic forced scouts off the road, canceled in-person workouts, and left teams relying on incomplete information. For the Twins, this meant entering the draft with limited insight while trying to bolster a system that was trying to improve from what the previous regime had left behind. Additionally, the Twins forfeited their third-round pick to sign free agent Josh Donaldson, and they dealt their compensation-round pick to the Dodgers in the Kenta Maeda trade. These moves left the team with only three selections, putting extra pressure on their top picks to succeed. A Swing and a Miss: Aaron Sabato With the 27th overall pick, the Twins selected first baseman Aaron Sabato, a slugger from the University of North Carolina. At the time, Sabato’s raw power and plate discipline drew comparisons to MLB standouts like Pete Alonso. However, Sabato’s professional career has been riddled with inconsistency five years later. At the time, the Twins liked him for his offensive profile and signed him to an above-slot deal. Injuries and strikeout issues have plagued Sabato, and while he’s shown flashes of power in the minors, his inability to adjust to high-level pitching has kept him from reaching the big leagues. As of the 2024 season, he remains in Double-A with little indication of breaking through. Last season, he hit .199/.308/.336 (.645) while being older than the average age of players in the Texas League. Meanwhile, other picks taken shortly after him have already accumulated positive WAR. Austin Wells (28th overall) has 2.6 WAR in 134 games, while Jordan Westburg (30th overall) has 3.7 WAR in 175 games. Sabato would always need to hit at a high level to impact the big-league roster, but that has yet to happen. Alerick Soularie: A Risk That Didn’t Pay Off The Twins’ second-round pick, Alerick Soularie, was a versatile outfielder from the University of Tennessee known for his athleticism and offensive upside. Unfortunately, Soularie struggled to find his footing in pro ball. He’s battled injuries and inconsistent performance, and his defensive versatility hasn’t been enough to offset his lack of production at the plate. Here’s what the Twins said at the time. Minnesota released Soularie in May 2024 after he posted a .598 OPS in 33 games. He signed with the Giants organization and played 24 games before heading to an independent league to end last season. The Twins gambled on his potential in a year when scouting was limited, but that risk did not pay off. Marco Raya: A Rare Bright Spot The lone bright spot in Minnesota’s 2020 draft class is fourth-round pick Marco Raya, a high school pitcher from Texas. Raya has displayed a promising mix of velocity and secondary pitches, rising through the system as a potential middle-of-the-rotation arm. He remains one of the team’s top pitching prospects and could still salvage some value from this otherwise underwhelming draft haul. Last season, he finished the year at Triple-A at only 21 years old. In 25 starts, he posted a 4.05 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. Raya faced older batters in over 90% of his plate appearances because the Twins have been confident in moving him up the organizational ladder. Minnesota has limited his workload in recent seasons, so the 2025 campaign is crucial for him to prove he can throw over 100 innings in a season. Kala’i Rosario: Another Chance for Late-Round Value Besides Raya, the Twins have also given Rosario every opportunity to succeed in the organization. Minnesota selected him out of high school in Hawaii, and he has consistently moved up the ladder, including being sent to the Arizona Fall League the last two seasons. The Twins left him unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter, but no teams selected him. Now, he must prove his worth to the organization and put himself back on the prospect map. Last season, Rosario reached Double-A and hit .235/.321/.405 (.726) with 30 extra-base hits in 69 games. He missed a good chunk of time due to an elbow injury. He’s combined for over 30 K% in his professional career, so there has been plenty of swing-and-miss with his power totals. He was the Midwest League MVP in 2023, pointing to his long-term potential upside. The Cost of Missed Opportunities To be fair, the Twins weren’t the only team hamstrung by the challenges of the 2020 draft. However, the combination of limited scouting, forfeited picks, and questionable selections has left Minnesota with one of the weakest draft classes from that year. The Sabato pick, in particular, looms large as a missed opportunity, especially considering the elite talent still available in other rounds. Draft misses are inevitable in baseball, but the 2020 MLB Draft will likely serve as a cautionary tale for the Twins. With the team now facing increased pressure to develop homegrown talent, the lack of impact players from this class is a glaring hole in their long-term plans. As Baseball America’s review suggests, the 2020 draft may be remembered as pivotal in the Twins’ struggles to build a sustainable contender. For Minnesota, the hope is that players like Raya and Rosario can eventually make an impact, but five years later, it’s clear the team’s early-round picks were a missed opportunity in an already challenging year. Were the Twins the biggest losers of the 2020 MLB Draft? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article