Cody Christie

Louie Varland is getting a lot of attention this season, especially with his performance in the upper minors. Another pitcher from Varland’s draft class is also putting his name on the prospect map. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Twins fans know Louie Varland after his impressive debut at Yankee Stadium. He’s the organization’s reigning minor league pitcher of the year, but he might not have gotten the respect he deserved entering the season. Many Twins rankings didn’t have him in the organization’s top-10, and another prospect may be following his path to the big leagues. Drafting and developing pitching is one of the critical strategies for teams to keep their winning window open as long as possible. Varland was a 15th-round pick in 2019, and the Twins have developed him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Picks later in the draft can allow for some sneaky value, and Brent Headrick fits that mold. The Twins drafted Headrick in the 9th round of the 2019 MLB Draft from Illinois State University. It was tough to know what to expect from Headrick as he posted a 6.40 ERA as a sophomore. Following that season, he headed to the Northwoods Summer League and had a 2.63 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings. Some of those positives translated to his junior season, where he posted a 10.8 K/9 with a 1.09 WHIP. Minnesota saw potential and selected him later in the draft. Entering the 2021 season, Headrick was limited to three professional appearances because of the missing 2020 campaign. Minnesota sent him to Fort Myers in 2021, where he was over a year older than the average age of the competition at that level. In 15 appearances, he posted a 3.82 ERA with a 12.6 K/9 over 61 1/3 innings. His biggest issue was allowing more than a hit per inning, resulting in a 1.58 WHIP. Luckily, Headrick has made vast improvements in 2022. Headrick started the year by dominating at High-A, where he posted a 2.34 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP in 15 starts. He significantly reduced the number of hits per nine from 9.3 H/9 in 2021 to 7.3 H/9 in 2022. Since being promoted to Double-A, his strikeout rate has improved to 12.2 K/9, and he is slightly younger than the competition for the first time in his career. Only one Twins prospect has struck out more batters than Headrick this season. Varland has accumulated 146 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings, while Headrick has 130 strikeouts in 104 1/3 innings. For the season, his 11.2 K/9 is the highest among Twins prospects who have pitched at least 80 innings. Headrick is one of a handful of Twins prospects who will pitch more than 100 innings this season, and he is making the most of his time on the mound. Headrick won’t finish the season ranked as highly as Varland, but he is having a standout performance while other top prospects struggle. He should enter next season as one of the team’s top-30 prospects with a chance to prove himself in the upper minors. His ceiling may be a back-end of the rotation starter, but that can provide value to a Twins organization that has recently filled those spots with veterans. Keep your eye on Headrick in 2023 and beyond. What are your thoughts on Headricks’ performance so far in 2022? What is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota may have fallen out of playoff contention over the last week, but many of the club’s affiliated teams will be vying for postseason championships. Here are some of the prospects to watch in the days ahead. Image courtesy of Steve Buhr, Twins Daily On Sunday, the High- and Low-A regular seasons came to a close. Luckily, both of Minnesota’s affiliates qualified for the postseason, and they will begin play on Tuesday. In the Midwest League, the Cedar Rapids Kernels face the South Bend Cubs in a semifinal round. For the Florida State League, the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels square off against the Dunedin Blue Jays. Multiple names below will be getting their first taste of postseason action. Cedar Rapids Prospects To Watch Brooks Lee, SS (TD No. 2) Lee has already impressed during his professional career after being taken as a top-10 pick in June. The Twins had him skip Low-A and head directly to High-A. In 25 games, he posted a .848 OPS with four doubles and four home runs. An argument can be made that he is the organization’s best prospect, and now he has a chance to prove it on a big stage. David Festa, RHP (TD No. 13) Festa was a 13th-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, but his stock has risen significantly over the last year. Between Low- and High-A, he has a 2.43 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a 108-to-34 strikeout to walk ratio. Festa is a year younger than the average age of the competition in the Midwest League, and the team will ask him to get some big outs if they make a September run. Kernels Expected Starters Game 1: David Festa Game 2: Travis Adams Game 3: Jaylen Nowlin Fort Myers Prospects To Watch Noah Miller, SS (TD No. 7) Minnesota took Miller with the 36th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of high school in Wisconsin. During the 2022 season, he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition in the FSL. Miller lacked power production during his first full professional season, but the playoffs offer a new opportunity. He has the potential to be one of the team’s top prospects by 2024. Marco Raya, RHP (TD No. 8) Raya was Minnesota’s first draft pick from high school in 2020 as the team took him in the fourth round. As a teenager in the FSL, over 82% of his plate appearances have come against older batters. In 19 appearances (65 innings), he has a 3.05 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. He missed time at the beginning of August, so he has averaged less than four innings per start in September. Tanner Schobel, SS (TD No. 18) Schobel was Minnesota’s second-round pick in 2022 from Virginia Tech, where he had a .980 OPS in three seasons. He hit 18 doubles and 19 home runs during his final collegiate season. As a professional, he has been limited to a .651 OPS with five extra-base hits in 32 games. Hopefully, his college experience shines through in the postseason. Kala’i Rosario, OF (TD No. 20) Like Raya, the Twins took Rosario out of high school in the 2020 MLB Draft. As a regular in the Mussels line-up, he has hit .239/.320/.408 (.727) with 21 doubles, three triples, and 12 home runs. His numbers are even more impressive, considering that nearly 90% of his plate appearances have come against older pitchers. Mighty Mussels Expected Starters Game 1: Pierson Ohl Game 2: Marco Raya Game 3: Jordan Carr Obviously, any player can shine under the postseason spotlight, but big players step up in critical games. Will any of the names above lead their teams to championships? Who are you looking forward to watching? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota's strong start to the season changed expectations for the 2022 campaign. However, the club might have just taken the long route to return to being a .500 team. Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports Baseball's grueling 162-game season is something that sets it apart from the other major sports leagues. A team can play well for a short period, but flaws become evident as a team deals with the up-and-down nature of a long season. Minnesota's flaws showed themselves in the season's second half, but the team might end up where they were supposed to be from the beginning. Entering the 2022 season, many projection systems had the Twins pegged to finish around the .500 mark. FanGraphs projected the Twins to finish 82-80, which translated to a second-place finish in the AL Central behind the White Sox. After finishing in last place in 2021, this was quite the jump for a team that didn't make significant upgrades in the offseason. Carlos Correa's signing changed the vibe surrounding the team, but one player can't push a team to playoff contention. The Twins early season success changed many fans' expectations for where the team was heading in 2022. Minnesota finished the season's first two months with a 30-21 record (.588 W-L%) as they looked like one of baseball's best teams. Byron Buxton was off to an MVP start, and Luis Arraez seemed to be able to put any ball in play. All the right buttons were being pushed, and it looked like the Twins could walk to the AL Central title. June and July didn't go as smoothly for the Twins as the team posted a sub .500 record in both months. Minnesota's bullpen issues became apparent, and injuries started to mount with all parts of the roster. With the trade deadline approaching, the front office had a clear shopping list, with the team needing multiple relievers and a frontline starting pitcher. Luckily, the team could cross all these needs off their list, but not all the moves have panned out as planned. Tyler Mahle was the team's biggest tradeline acquisition, and a shoulder injury has limited him to four starts with the Twins. Since being acquired, he has spent more time on the injured list than on the active roster. Jorge Lopez was the best reliever acquired at the deadline as the tea immediately gave him the closer role. In his Twins tenure, he has posted a negative WPA, and Minnesota has moved him to a lower-leverage role. Michael Fulmer has performed the best out of trade deadline acquisitions with a 3.24 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings. Minnesota's front office used prospect capital to keep the team in the AL Central race, and mounting injuries have hindered that progress. Every team deals with injuries, but few teams have faced the number of injuries the Twins have accrued in 2022. Minnesota has put more players on the injured list than any other American League team. In fact, the Twins can create a competitive roster with the players currently on the injured list. When Minnesota was playing well, the team could hide injuries with solid performances from other players. Now, injuries will be the team's theme for the 2022 season, and those concerns will follow the club throughout the offseason. There have been exciting moments for the 2022 Twins with early surprises and some strong performances. However, this team looks more likely to finish the season around .500 with double-digit players on the injured list. In the offseason, there will be time to reevaluate the club's future direction, but for now, the team has taken the long road back to mediocrity. Do you think the Twins will finish the season with a .500 record? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota was ecstatic to have Brooks Lee fall to them with the 8th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. Now, he's proving that other teams might have been wrong to leave him on the board that long. Image courtesy of Steve Buhr, Twins Daily MLB scouting departments have followed Brooks Lee since he was a high schooler in California. As the son of Cal Poly's head coach Larry Lee, he has grown up around baseball. In the 2019 MLB Draft, he fell to the 35th round because teams knew he wanted to play in college for his dad. Unfortunately, the pandemic limited his first college season, and he suffered an injury that required knee and hamstring surgery. In 2021, Lee returned and showed why he had been a highly ranked high school prospect. He hit .342/.384/.626 (1.010) with 27 doubles, three triples, and ten home runs in 55 games. Lee also showed tremendous control of the strike zone with a 34-to-18 strikeout to walk ratio. He was named the co-Big West Player of the Year at the season's end. After the season, he headed to the Cape Cod League and continued to hit with a 1.099 OPS. This performance helped improve his draft stock because this league utilizes wood bats, and it didn't stop Lee from putting up strong numbers. It's hard to imagine, but Lee performed better during his junior year, establishing himself as the best college bat in the 2022 draft class. In 58 games, he hit .357/.462/.664 (1.125) with 25 doubles and 15 home runs. Some felt he should be a top-3 pick in the draft, so it was surprising that he fell to the Twins with the eighth overall selection. Another team's loss is Minnesota's gain, as he is already showing his potential in his first professional season. Minnesota has been aggressive with Lee as the team promoted him to High-A after only four games in rookie ball. Since arriving in Cedar Rapids, he has hit .297/.391/.473 (.863) with four doubles and four home runs. Even as a college draftee, he is over a year younger than the average age of the competition at his level, with over 73% of his at-bats coming against older pitchers. It's a small sample size, but Lee is already showcasing his elite hit tool. The Twins drafted Lee as a shortstop, but he will likely move to third base as he continues to mature. His arm is considered above average, so that he will play well at the hot corner. So far in his professional career, all his defensive innings have been at shortstop, so the Twins aren't ready to move him yet. Overall, his hit tool will carry him no matter his eventual defensive position. Many national outlets updated their prospect lists throughout the season, and Lee is in the discussion for Minnesota's top prospect. For instance, MLB.com has Lee ranked as baseball's 33rd best prospect, and that was before his performance at High-A. According to their rankings, Lee is one of three prospects to have a hit grade of 65 or higher, with the potential to reach a 70-hit tool in the future. Lee will likely continue to rise on national prospect lists as other players graduate and he continues to build his professional resume. How high is Lee's ceiling? Where do you think he will rank on top-100 lists heading into the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Few MLB teams have been bitten by the injury bug like the Twins this season. Could Minnesota win the AL Central with the players currently on the injured list? Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's injury list has continued to fill up with players up and down the roster. No AL team has put more players on the injured list than the Twins, making it tough to evaluate the team's overall talent value. Looking back on the 2022 season, it will be easy to point to all the team's injuries as one of the reasons for its downfall. That being said, the AL Central is still up for grabs, so could the Twins' injured players win the division? Catcher: Ryan Jeffers Jeffers was supposed to take over the full-time catching duties this season after the team traded Mitch Garver. Before fracturing his thumb, he saw his OPS+ rise eight points compared to 2021. He also does a great job behind the plate as his framing ranks in the 65th percentile. 1B: Miguel Sano There's no question that Sano struggled during the 2022 season, but this is a player that averaged a 122 OPS+ over the last three seasons. He's been streaky throughout his career, which doesn't help how fans view him. His Twins tenure is likely done, but he was a solid contributor during that time. 2B: Jorge Polanco Polanco had avoided the injured list for much of his career until the 2022 season. He's played through injuries in the past and been relatively productive. This season the injuries were clearly bothering him at the plate, and his defensive numbers took a significant drop. Even with injuries, his WAR ranks in the team's top 5. 3B: No Current Injury <Knock on Wood> Minnesota doesn't have a current injured third baseman, but this position can be filled with an infielder from St. Paul. Andrew Bechtold seems like a possible fit since he can be a replacement-level player and has played third base during the 2022 season. SS: Royce Lewis It's hard not to think about what Lewis might have meant to the 2022 Twins if he had stayed healthy. His first taste of the big leagues was spectacular as he went 12-for-40 (.300) with four doubles and two home runs. Lewis looked like a star, and the Twins could desperately use a right-handed power bat for the stretch run. OF: Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach Minnesota expected all three players to fit into the middle of the lineup this season. Buxton avoided the injured list for much of the season, but now he hasn't been available for the team's stretch run. Kirilloff put together some eye-popping numbers at Triple-A as he returned from injury. Unfortunately, something was still wrong with his wrist, and he underwent a unique surgery to alleviate some of the pain. Larnach had a 105 OPS+ in 2022, and the team has been forced to use replacement-level players to fill in for his production. Rotation: Tyler Mahle, Chris Paddack, Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Randy Dobnak The top three pitchers in the injured rotation have been acquired by the current front office in trades. Now it seems unlikely that any of the three will be available for Minnesota's stretch run. Ober and Dobnak have started their rehab assignments, but it's questionable how much they will be able to provide the club for the season's remainder. Josh Winder is also another name to consider as he is no longer rehabbing but he is getting back to strength in the Saints rotation. Adding him to this rotation allows Dobnak to be a long-man out of the bullpen. Bullpen: Jorge Alcala, Danny Coulombe, Jhon Romero, Cole Sands, Cody Stashak Minnesota's bullpen has been a mess, so it's intriguing to consider what these missing players may have been able to provide the team. Alcala has the make-up to be an elite reliever and had the potential to take over a late-inning role in 2022. Stashak and Sands can fit into this team's imaginary set-up roles. Not much was expected from Coulombe and Romero, but relievers can surprise in small sample sizes. Cleveland and Chicago have flaws, and the Twins roster above might be good enough to compete in the AL Central. Do you think they'd have enough pieces to compete in the division? Is the Twins injured roster better than their current roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Identifying a team's top prospect can be challenging, but looking forward can provide even more excitement for a franchise's future. Here are the names that will be in consideration for the team's top prospect in 2024. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Currently, one can make an argument for both Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee being Minnesota's top prospect. By 2024, both will have graduated from prospect lists and should be helping the Twins at the big-league level. In recent years, Minnesota's farm system has dropped in national rankings, but it's hard not to get excited about the talent level of the players listed below. 1. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF ETA: 2024 Rodriguez's stock has significantly risen this season as many national outlets included him in their updated top-100 rankings. As a 19-year-old, he hit .272/.493/.552 (1.044) with five doubles, three triples, and nine home runs in 47 games. He only faced younger pitchers in four plate appearances during the 2022 campaign. Unfortunately, a knee injury ended his season prematurely. Minnesota can have him repeat Fort Myers to start 2023, and he has plenty of development to do before he reaches Target Field. 2. Connor Prielipp, LHP ETA: 2025 The Twins took Prielipp with their second-round pick in 2022 from the University of Alabama. He was initially projected as a top-10 pick but missed the 2022 collegiate season due to Tommy John surgery. Minnesota will likely hold off on his professional debut until 2023, but he is already in the conversation as one of the team's top pitching prospects. By 2024, Prielipp has the potential to be the team's top prospect if he can return to his pre-injury form. 3. Marco Raya, RHP ETA: 2024 Like Rodriguez, Raya is another player that has put himself on the prospect map as a teenager in the Florida State League. In 61 innings, he has posted a 3.25 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and a 69-to-22 strikeout to walk ratio. Over 81% of his at-bats have come against older batters who Raya has held to a .592 OPS. He has three terrific secondary pitches that should allow him to continue as a starter as he moves up the organizational ladder. 4. David Festa, RHP ETA: 2024 The Twins drafted Festa in the 13th round of the 2021 MLB Draft. It's exciting when a team can find value late in the draft and develop a prospect in the organization. His velocity has significantly jumped since joining the Twins organization, as he can consistently hit in the upper-90s. In 100 2/3 innings, he has a 2.43 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a 108-to-34 strikeout to walk ratio. In 2023, he should get a chance to pitch in the upper minors with a chance to prove he is part of the team's long-term plans. 5. Noah Miller, SS ETA: 2025 Minnesota has traded away much of their 2021 draft class, and Miller is the highest pick still with the organization. The Twins sent him to Fort Myers this season, where he has hit .212/.347/.281 (.628) with 108 strikeouts in 106 games. As a 19-year-old, he still has offensive development to accomplish, especially as he adds weight to his body. His baseball instincts should allow him to stick at shortstop, a position the Twins have previously struggled to fill. Which player will be the team's top prospect in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Under the current regime, Minnesota has acquired multiple pitchers that have suffered an injury after being acquired. Is this bad luck, or is this something the front office can avoid in the future? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Many teams struggled to find enough pitching to make it through the season, and the Twins are no stranger to this problem. Minnesota has been in the middle of a winning window over the last four seasons, requiring the front office to be active in the trade market. Unfortunately, multiple pitchers acquired by the team have ended up dealing with injuries after being acquired. Is this something the team can avoid? Sam Dyson, RP Acquired: 2019 Trade Deadline from the Giants Minnesota’s line-up was firing on all cylinders during the 2019 season, and the team looked to bolster the Bomba Squad at the trade deadline. Minnesota traded for relievers Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo, but Dyson’s Twins tenure was short-lived. He allowed nine earned runs in 11 1/3 innings while also making multiple trips to the IL. Eventually, he revealed that he had been pitching through shoulder discomfort for multiple weeks. The Twins eventually investigated if the Giants knew anything about his injury before the trade. There were no signs of his injury or poor performance before the trade, so this deal looks like bad luck for the Twins. Kenta Maeda, SP Acquired: Before the 2020 Season from the Dodgers The Twins were looking to build off the 2019 season, and acquiring Maeda helped to put them back in contention for 2020. His first season in Minnesota couldn’t have gone much better as he posted a 2.70 ERA while leading baseball with a 0.75 WHIP. Maeda’s second season in Minnesota didn’t go as smoothly as his ERA rose to 4.66, and he eventually needed to undergo Tommy John surgery. There were some concerns with Maeda’s elbow when he originally signed with the Dodgers, and that’s why Los Angeles was able to sign him to a team-friendly deal. He pitched over 760 innings before needing Tommy John surgery, so it doesn’t seem like the Twins should have noticed this red flag. Chris Paddack, SP Acquired: Before the 2022 Season from the Padres The trade that brought Paddack to Minnesota will be discussed for quite some time. In the end, both teams aren’t happy with the results, with all players struggling or dealing with an injury. One of the reasons the Twins were able to acquire Paddack was because of some of his lingering injury concerns. As a prospect in the Padres system, Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery, and his 2021 season ended after he sprained his UCL last September. It was a tough blow for Minnesota because of how well he’d pitched in 2022, but it wasn’t much of a surprise that his season ended with a second Tommy John procedure. Tyler Mahle, SP Acquired: 2022 Trade Deadline from the Reds Mahle was arguably Minnesota’s most prominent trade deadline acquisition, but he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. He has struggled with velocity in his last two starts, which have required stints on the injured list. Now there is no guarantee he will be able to help the team for their most important games in September. Before the trade deadline, Mahle had been on the injured list because of his shoulder, but he had returned and pitched well. Even in 2021, Mahle led all of baseball with 33 games started, so he has been a consistent starter for multiple seasons. His injuries can be even more frustrating when looking at the other names mentioned above. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are forced to be creative when it comes to making baseball decisions. They aren’t going to surrender the prospect capital needed to acquire a top-tier pitcher because of the long-term ramifications of emptying a farm system. This forces the team to examine trades for players with flaws, including previous injury concerns. Nearly every MLB pitcher deals with injuries at some point in their career, so Minnesota has gotten unlucky with some players mentioned above. In retrospect, Dyson’s deal looks the worst, but the other three pitchers have the potential to impact the 2023 Twins. Do you think the Twins can avoid these types of pitchers in the future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Louie Varland is scheduled to make his big-league debut on Wednesday in Yankee Stadium. Here are four things to keep an eye on during his much-anticipated debut. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Louie Varland's rise from 15th-round pick to top pitching prospect has been well documented at Twins Daily. Since the Twins drafted him, there have been over 50 articles where he has been tagged at the site. Varland, a St. Paul native, will be debuting for his hometown team with the added pressure of being in a tight division race. Here are some things to watch as he debuts against the New York Yankees. 1. Fastball Velocity Throughout his collegiate career, Varland topped out in the low 90s with his fastball. With no 2020 minor league season, he used his time to rework his arm action to put less stress on his joints. These changes allowed him to see a significant jump in velocity as he averaged 94 mph during the 2021 season, and he can now reach into the high 90s. He will likely have some adrenaline pumping during his debut, so he will likely be able to reach back and hit the higher end of his velocity range. 2. Strikeout Totals Striking out batters in the minor leagues differs from attacking hitters at the big-league level. Throughout his professional career, Varland has posted 11.3 K/9, including 10.4 K/9 in 2022 at Double- and Triple-A. He has struck out seven or more batters in three of four Triple-A appearances. Unfortunately, the Yankees don't strike out much as their 22.2 K% ranks 7th in the American League. Varland can hope that New York will be unfamiliar with his repertoire since none of their batters have faced him. 3. Minimizing Home Runs Yankee Stadium is famous for its short outfield porch that allows for more regular home runs. As a right-handed hurler, Varland will likely face multiple lefties in the Yankees line-up. During the 2022 season, lefties have hit .249/.320/.385 (.704) with eight home runs against Varland. For his career, he has allowed 0.8 HR/9, including 15 home runs in 24 appearances this season. Luckily, many of the Bronx Bombers' best hitters are right-handed, including Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and DJ LeMahieu. Judge's bat in this series has already hurt Minnesota, so Varland needs to minimize the damage done by the long ball. 4. Enjoy the Moment Pitching at Yankee Stadium can be a thoroughly unenjoyable experience, but players only get one chance to make their big-league debut. Varland has been a great story to follow throughout the last two seasons. The Twins named him the organization's minor league pitcher of the year last season, and he has a chance to win back-to-back honors. He and his family also have deep roots in the Twin Cities. Varland was born in St. Paul and attended college at the same school as his brother, a prospect in the Dodgers organization. Twins fans have clamored for this front office regime to produce pitching prospects, and Varland is one of the best starting pitchers produced under their watch. What will you keep an eye on during Varland's debut? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

As the season winds down, it's easier to focus on some players who may be the team's secret weapons. So, who have been Minnesota's most underappreciated players in 2022? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports Last week, MLB.com attempted to name the most underappreciated player on every team. This can be a challenging exercise for a national writer who can't focus on the day-to-day of every MLB team. The Twins have players that have exceeded expectations and others that have struggled to fill their roles. Here are the team's most underappreciated players this season. Gio Urshela, 3B MLB.com picked Urshela as the team's most underappreciated player for multiple reasons. Surprisingly, he has a higher OPS than Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson. That doesn't tell the entire story with Urshela. His defense at third base has dramatically improved in the second half, which helps his overall value to the club. During the offseason, the Twins will need to decide whether or not to offer Urshela arbitration in his final year of eligibility. Urshela's contributions to the team may be underappreciated because of baseball's offensive drop this season. He has an OPS near his career mark of .744, which translates to a 114 OPS+ in 2022. According to FanGraphs, Urshela has provided his second highest amount of value ($10.6 million) in any big-league season. Minnesota may consider this when deciding whether or not to bring him back for 2023. Caleb Thielbar, RP It's easy to look at Thielbar's overall numbers for the season and not be impressed with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. However, some poor appearances near the season's start cloud those numbers. Since April 30, Thielbar has posted a 2.36 ERA with a 57-to-12 strikeout to walk ratio in 42 innings. For much of the season, he has also been the team's only left-handed pitcher out of the bullpen. While others have struggled, Thielbar has been invaluable as a late-inning option. Before the 2020 season, Thielbar was close to retiring from baseball as he was going to take a college coaching job. Luckily, the Twins convinced him that he had something left in the tank. Over the last three seasons, Thielbar has provided the Twins with nearly $20 million worth of value, including close to $9 million in 2022. Relievers can go through ups-and-downs with the small sample size of innings they pitch in a season, but Thielbar has continued to be consistent into his mid-30s. Gilberto Celestino, OF In 2021, Celestino's first taste of the big leagues couldn't have gone much worse. He hit .136/.177/.288 (.466) with three doubles and two home runs in 23 games. Minnesota rushed him to the MLB level without playing at Triple-A, so the results should have been expected for a 22-year-old. He has improved significantly during the 2022 campaign, including a month when he was one of the team's best hitters. Back in May, he hit .364/.426/.418 (.844) across 19 games. With Byron Buxton getting regular rest, Celestino has been needed to fill the void in center field. Celestino can't compare to Buxton's defensive prowess, but few players can be that good. Defensively, Celestino ranks in the 82nd percentile for Outs Above Average, and his sprint speed is in the 65th percentile. He is an above-average defender that has provided offensive value that impacts the line-up. Some may forget that he is only 23 years old and has played fewer than 120 games at the big-league level. Minnesota will need him to continue to fill an outfield role in the years ahead. Who do you think have been the most underappreciated Twins players this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Baseball’s final weeks can be an exciting time for contending teams as they fight for limited playoff spots. Here are five Twins predictions certain to come true in September. Predictions can be fickle when it comes to baseball, but things become more apparent as the season progresses. Players and teams have performed to a certain level at this point in the season, and those trends may or may not hold true over the final weeks. How many of the predictions below will come true? Luis Arraez Wins His First Batting Title August was Arraez’s worst offensive month of the 2022 season as he hit under .270. Luckily, many other AL hitters also struggled in recent weeks. Arraez ended August leading the AL’s batting race by nine points over Jose Abreau, with Xander Bogaerts sitting one point behind in third. To help Minnesota’s offense, the Twins need Arraez to get back to the players he was in the season’s first half. Jhoan Duran Leads the AL in WPA Duran has been dominant in his rookie campaign as he quite literally helped save the Twins bullpen. Following the trade deadline, Rocco Baldelli has used Duran in the game’s most pivotal moments, which has helped increase his Win Probability Added. Duran currently leads all AL pitchers according to WPA, as he currently sits ahead of Justin Verlander and Emmanuel Clase. Minnesota will have close games down the stretch, and Duran’s WPA total will continue to rise. Max Kepler Wins the Gold Glove Minnesota’s defense has significantly improved in the season’s second half, with multiple players putting themselves in the Gold Glove conversation. Kepler has been near the top of the AL’s SDI rankings for right fielders throughout the season and has a chance to finish atop the leaderboard. He should easily be a Gold Glove finalist and has a chance to become the team’s first Gold Glove winner since 2017. Chicago Will Be a Thorn in Minnesota’s Side The White Sox were supposed to run away with the AL Central, but not much has gone right on Chicago’s Southside. Minnesota has three September series against Chicago, and the White Sox have a chance to play spoiler. One thing to keep an eye on is how the White Sox respond without their manager Tony Larussa, who stepped away from the team due to a medical issue. If they want to win the division, the Twins have to win a majority of their games against the AL Central in the season’s final month. The Twins Will Win the AL Central Cleveland has taken over the division lead in recent weeks, but Minnesota has eight games left against the Guardians. From September 16-19, the Twins play five games in four days in Cleveland which will likely decide the division winner. There is an outside shot that the Twins can win a Wild Card spot if they fail to overtake Cleveland, but that is significantly less likely than winning the division. The AL Central will have one playoff team, which will be the team that walks away with the division title. What predictions do you have for the season’s final weeks? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s defensive numbers have improved significantly over the last month and a half. How many Twins players have put themselves in the Gold Glove conversation? Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric developed by the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) is called the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, MLB has used SDI as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on August 28, 2022. Pitcher (AL Ranking): No Twins Pitchers Qualify The Twins have yet to have a pitcher qualify for the SDI leaderboard in this season's rankings. Many of the team's top starters have missed time during different parts of the season, which means they don't have enough defensive innings to appear on the leaderboard. Former Twin Jose Berrios currently ranks 4th in the AL with a 1.4 SDI. Catcher (AL Ranking): Gary Sanchez 0.2 SDI (11th) Sanchez came to the Twins with a reputation as a terrible defensive catcher. Last season, he ranked as the AL's worst catcher with a -8.2 SDI, which was 1.4 points lower than the next qualified player. His increase of over eight SDI points this season shows how much he has improved. In the last SDI ranking, Ryan Jeffers was sixth in the AL with a 2.0 SDI. His recent injury means he no longer qualifies for the leaderboard. First Base (AL Ranking): Luis Arraez 1.2 SDI (2nd) Arraez's bat has cooled off recently, but his defensive performance has vaulted him into the Gold Glove conversation at first base. Only Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a higher SDI total among AL first basemen, and Arraez trails by 0.3 points. In July's rankings, Arraez was ninth in the AL with a -0.5 SDI. Can Arraez pass Guerrero Jr. in the season's final month? Second Base (AL Ranking): Jorge Polanco -2.6 SDI (13th) While Arraez improved significantly, Polanco's SDI steeply declined over the last month and a half. Polanco has been a strong defender since switching from shortstop to second base. Last season, Polanco finished fourth among the AL's second basemen in SDI. One must wonder if Polanco's knee injury impacts his ability to get to balls defensively. Third Base (AL Ranking): Gio Urshela -0.2 SDI (T-8th) Urshela's defense vastly improved compared to earlier in the season. In July, only one AL third baseman ranked lower than Urshela, but his SDI total improved by 1.6 points. Form Twin Josh Donaldson leads all AL third basemen with 7.8 SDI, which ranks as the fifth best SDI total in the AL. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa 3.1 SDI (5th) Correa posted an MLB-high 15.8 SDI last season on his way to winning the American League's Platinum Glove. His early season defensive numbers were disappointing, but he has slowly climbed the SDI leaderboard. Correa improved his SDI total by 2.5 since the July rankings, and another month like that would move him into the AL's top three shortstops. Left Field (AL Ranking): Nick Gordon 0.8 SDI (5th) Gordon was an infielder throughout his professional career until the Twins shifted him to a utility role for 2022. Injuries to regular outfielders like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have forced the Twins to use Gordon regularly in left field. His leaderboard position has improved in each SDI update as he becomes more comfortable in the outfield. Center Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified No Twins center fielders have appeared on the SDI leaderboard this season because Byron Buxton has been getting regularly scheduled rest days and time at DH. According to Baseball Savant, Buxton has an Outs Above Average in the 95th percentile, which places him among baseball's best defenders. The Twins also added Billy Hamilton to the big-league roster to improve the team's outfield defense. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 5.7 SDI (2nd) Fans may be frustrated by Kepler's offensive woes this season, but he continues to be an elite defender in right field. Only Houston's Kyle Tucker ranks higher than Kepler among AL right fielders. Over the last month, Kepler has closed the gap on Tucker, and he has a chance to finish the year in first place. Can Kepler win his first Gold Glove? Which rankings above surprise you the most? Will Kepler or Arraez win the Gold Glove? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Every year some prospects exceed expectations and start rising in an organization's top prospect rankings. So, who is the best Twins prospect you've never heard of? The Dodgers originally signed Jair Camargo as a 16-year-old out of Colombia. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .250/.309/.346 (.654) with eight extra-base hits in 41 games. Over the next three seasons, he climbed the Dodgers' organizational ladder, continuing to be young for each level. In 2019, he played 79 games at Low-A with a .642 OPS as a 19-year-old. Minnesota acquired Camargo along with Kenta Maeda for Brusdar Graterol and Luke Raley. His organizational debut was forced to wait until 2021, when he spent the season at High-A. Camargo was 1.5 years younger than the average age of the competition, and he posted a .697 OPS, which was his best total in a full-season league. His numbers still weren't impressive, but the team hoped he could continue to improve as he got closer to Target Field. In 2022, Camargo seems to have put it all together, and he's doing it at Double-A. He returned to Cedar Rapids for the season's start, where he hit .296/.314/.496 (.809) with 11 extra-base hits in 28 games. Minnesota promoted him to Double-A, and his bat got even hotter with Wichita. In his first 32 Double-A games, he hit ten home runs, and he's over two years younger than the average age of the competition. Over 73% of his at-bats have come against older pitchers, which makes his performance even more impressive. Defensively, Camargo spends most of his time at catcher, but he has also seen time at first and third base. For the season, he has thrown out 35% of attempted base stealers. Since joining the Twins organization, he has yet to post a fielding percentage below .982 at any level, and he has a .979 fielding percentage in his catching career. He is indeed a prospect to watch by adding his improving offensive skills to a solid catching frame. Currently, Twins Daily doesn't rank Camargo as one of the team's top-30 prospects, which points to how much his season came out of nowhere. MLB Pipeline recently updated their top-30 list, and Camargo was also absent from their rankings. If he continues to play this well, it will be hard to keep him off these lists entering the 2023 season. In recent years, Ryan Jeffers has been the top catching prospect to come through the Twins organization. Jeffers made his debut in 2020 as a 23-year-old after hitting .264/.341/.421 (.762) at High- and Double-A in 2019. If the Twins follow a similar development plan, Camargo has a chance to debut in 2023, especially if there are injuries at the big-league level. If Minnesota wants to keep Camargo, he must be added to the 40-man roster this winter. There are plenty of other prospects the Twins will need to consider adding before the Rule 5 Draft, including Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino, Matt Wallner, and Louie Varland. Young catchers with big bats are not easily acquired, so the Twins will need to evaluate if his power surge is real before making a roster decision. Do you think Camargo has put himself into the team's long-term plans? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article