Cody Christie

Major League Baseball held its first-ever Draft Lottery on Tuesday night. Were the Twins lucky enough to move into the top-six picks? Yes! Image courtesy of Twins Daily MLB’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) instituted a Draft Lottery like the NBA and NHL. Previously, the team with the worst record from the previous season was guaranteed the top overall pick. Now, the worst teams aren’t guaranteed a top-six pick, and the bottom three teams have the same odds of getting the top pick. The 18 teams that missed the postseason have a chance at the top overall pick. Minnesota entered the draft with the 13th-best odds of receiving the top pick (0.9%). There are also restrictions on how often a team can participate in the lottery. Teams that don’t receive revenue sharing (large-market teams) can not receive a lottery pick in consecutive drafts. Revenue-sharing recipients (small-market teams) are prohibited from being awarded a lottery pick in three consecutive years. Teams prohibited from a lottery pick can’t receive higher than the 10th overall pick. MLB Draft Lottery Results As expected, the 2023 MLB Draft order shifted because of the Draft Lottery. The Twins made the biggest jump of any team by moving from the 13th overall pick to fifth overall. For 2022, the first 18 picks will follow this order: 1. Pirates (Up 2) 2. Nationals (Down 1) 3. Tigers (Up 3) 4. Rangers (Up 3) 5. Twins (Up 8) 6. A's (Down 4) 7. Reds (Down 3) 8. Royals (Down 3) 9. Rockies (Down 1) 10. Marlins (Down 1) 11. Angels (Down 1) 12. D-Backs (Down 1) 13. Cubs (Down 1) 14. Red Sox 15. White Sox 16. Giants 17. Orioles 18. Brewers Competitive Balance Round Pick Earlier this week, MLB announced the Competitive Balance Draft picks to teams that fall in the bottom 10 in revenue or market size. Competitive Balance Round A takes place after the completion of the first round, and these picks are the only ones that clubs are allowed to trade. Minnesota can hang on to this top-40 pick, or it might be an intriguing piece to trade this winter. The Round A picks are as follows: 1. Mariners 2. Rays 3. Brewers 4. Twins 5. Marlins 6. Tigers 7. Reds 8. A’s Minnesota’s Recent First-Round Picks In the 2022 MLB Draft, the Twins took Brooks Lee with the eighth overall pick, and he has shot up national top-100 lists because of his strong professional debut. During the 2021 MLB Draft, Minnesota had two picks in the top 36. Chase Petty was the team’s first pick (26th overall), and the Twins traded him to the Reds organization for Sonny Gray. Noah Miller was a Competitive Balance Round pick (36th overall) and posted a .627 OPS in 108 Low-A games last season. The 2020 MLB Draft was shortened due to the pandemic, and Minnesota selected college slugger Aaron Sabato with the 27th overall pick. He ended last year at Double-A and posted a .774 OPS for the 2022 season. In 2019, the Twins also had two first-round picks, with Keoni Cavaco selected 13th overall and Matt Wallner picked in the Competitive Balance Round. Wallner has entered the team’s long-term plans after a tremendous season in the upper minors. Cavaco will likely spend 2023 at Cedar Rapids as he continues to develop his swing. What thoughts do you have on the first-ever MLB Draft lottery? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

MLB’s Winter Meetings can be a time for front offices to put the finishing touches on trades. If the Twins want to add to the 2023 roster, here are the organization’s three most tradeable prospects. Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel, USA Today Sports The Twins were very active at last year’s trade deadline, which saw the team acquire two relievers (Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer) and one starter (Tyler Mahle). Acquiring these players cost multiple prospects that were close to big-league ready. Minnesota may need to dip deeper into an already depleted farm system to acquire other players to improve the 2023 roster. Rising Stock: Edouard Julien Twins Daily Prospect Rank: 10 Earlier this week, MLB Pipeline named Julien as the most tradeable prospect. Last season at Double-A, Julien hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 39 extra-base hits in 113 games. He carried that performance to the Arizona Fall League, where he led the league in hitting (28-for-70, .400 BA). Julien did so well that he was named the AFL’s Breakout Player of the Year. Currently, there is no direct path for Julien to the big leagues, as his defensive future isn’t clear. Minnesota may decide that other better infield options can make Julien expendable. His stock is likely at its highest point, so the team may want to sell high. Top Talent: Brooks Lee Twins Daily Prospect Rank: 2 On most national rankings, Lee is considered the team’s top prospect entering the 2023 campaign. He was widely considered the best college bat in the 2022 MLB Draft, and the Twins were lucky he fell to them with the eighth overall pick. During his pro debut, he impressed by hitting .303/.389/.451 (.839) with ten extra-base hits in 31 games. Minnesota was also aggressive with him by pushing him all the way to Double-A for Wichita’s playoff run. The Twins will likely want to hang on to Lee, but the club might want to acquire a top of the rotation starter. Trading for that type of pitcher will require Lee to be included in the prospect package. Upside Starter: Simeon Woods Richardson Twins Daily Prospect Rank: 5 At this time last year, Woods Richardson saw his stock drop to the point where he fell off national top-100 prospect lists. He had a resurgent year in the upper minors with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP on his way to making his big-league debut. Woods Richardson is entering his age-22 season, so it seems likely for him to reappear on top-100 prospect lists this winter. Woods Richardson seems the least likely to be traded out of the players on this list. He has multiple years of team control, and he is big-league-ready. Minnesota can include him in a trade for a top-tier starter, or the club can hold on to him and hope he continues to develop. Many fans get attached to top prospects because they offer unlimited hope for the future. Unfortunately, no prospects are guaranteed to succeed at baseball’s highest level. The Twins roster is far from complete for 2023, and trading prospects is undoubtedly one path the front office has to consider. Do the Twins want to go all-in for 2023 and trade other top prospects? Or should the team hang on to the names above and hope they can help the club in the years ahead? Will the Twins consider trading any of these prospects? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Carlos Correa is one of the biggest keys to the Twins' offseason plan. So does the team need to set a deadline for whether they are in or out on Correa? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports With the Winter Meetings starting this week, the hot stove might begin to heat up. Plenty of the biggest free agents and their representatives will be traveling the halls in San Diego. Scott Boras, who represents Carlos Correa, is usually one of the most active people at the annual event. Besides Correa, he represents other top free agents like Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Nimmo, and Carlos Rodon. Boras can see how the market plays out for his top clients, but the Twins might not have the time to wait on a Correa decision. Minnesota has payroll flexibility this winter, with around $50 million in payroll to spend. The Twins will likely get outbid for Correa's services, and the team will have to pivot to other options. However, the Twins might end up with no viable free-agent options if Correa's contract negotiations drag out over the next few months. Some top free agents like Jacob deGrom and Jose Abreu are already off the market, and other names may sign as more conversations occur at the Winter Meetings. Last winter, the market didn't play out in Correa's favor. He switched agents, and the lockout forced him to wait until spring training started to ink a deal. Correa can choose to be patient this winter to see what clubs miss on Aaron Judge before turning their attention to the other top names on the market. Correa likely wants a decision sooner rather than later, but he's expected to sign a contract covering the remainder of his career. It must be a good fit from the team and player's perspective. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have proven the ability to be patient and let the market play out in their favor. However, that strategy almost didn't play out in their favor last year as Correa fell into their laps as spring training began. In previous offseasons, they had made offers to some of the top free agent starters like Zack Wheeler before signing Josh Donaldson to a multi-year contract. Thankfully, the team was able to jettison the Donaldson contract, but this winter might be the time for the Twins to change their off-season strategy. Internally, the Twins should set a deadline to sign Correa so they have enough remaining time in the offseason to make moves that put themselves back in contention. The AL Central is one of baseball's worst divisions, and Minnesota has finished below .500 in two consecutive seasons. Things will be challenging for AL Central clubs, with MLB schedules becoming more balanced next season. According to the preliminary ZiPS projected standings, FanGraphs expects the Twins to finish 81-81, one game behind Cleveland for the division title. Obviously, a player of Correa's caliber can be worth enough WAR to push the Twins to another level. According to reports, the Twins have made multiple contract offers to Correa from six to ten years in length. It's certainly good that Minnesota's front office is engaging him in contract talks, but the team can only afford to see so many free agents sign with other clubs. Bogaerts seems like the player the Twins will turn to after Correa, and the team may need to pivot to him at some point in the coming weeks. If Correa returns to the Twins, it would be in the team's best interest to have a deal in place before the end of December, so the front office can continue to improve the roster around him. Otherwise, the team may be left without few moves to make. Do the Twins need to set a Correa contract deadline? How long can they wait for him to make a decision? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota protected multiple players before the Rule 5 deadline, but only some players can make the cut. Would losing Steven Cruz come back to haunt the Twins? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge The 2022 Rule 5 Draft will take place on Wednesday, December 7, as part of the Winter Meetings in San Diego. It will be the first Rule 5 Draft in two years since last year's draft was canceled due to lockout. It also marks the first Rule 5 Draft since rosters expanded to 26 players. This may allow teams the roster flexibility to carry an extra player for the entire season, especially a relief pitcher that has traditionally been easier to hide. In the last Rule 5 Draft, the Twins lost Akil Baddoo and Tyler Wells, who have each had promising starts to their big-league careers. Baddoo posted a 2.0 WAR season as a rookie before struggling in his sophomore campaign. Wells shifted to a starting role for an improving Orioles squad looking to get back into contention. Will Steven Cruz follow a similar path as Baddoo and Wells? Minnesota initially signed Cruz as an international free agent in March 2017 for $30,000. His professional debut came in the Dominican Summer League, where he posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 16 appearances. He moved stateside in 2018 and saw his strikeout rate jump from 8.0 K/9 to 11.4 K/9 with the GCL Twins. In 2019, he improved with a sub-3.00 ERA and 48 strikeouts across 31 innings for Elizabethton. His walk rate continued to be higher than teams want from a reliever, but he was showcasing some strong strikeout ability. Cruz's first taste of full-season affiliates had to wait until 2021 after the 2020 season was canceled. All but three of his appearances came at Low-A, where he was slightly older than the average age of the competition. In 50 innings, he posted a 4.32 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and 80 strikeouts. His 14.4 K/9 was a career-high, and his walk rate dropped from 6.7 BB/9 to 5.9 BB/9. He was making improvements, and his stuff was becoming hard to ignore. Minnesota was aggressive with Cruz in 2022 by sending him to Double-A with only two appearances above Low-A on his resume. He pitched the entire season out of Wichita's bullpen with 46 appearances. In 56 innings, he compiled a 5.14 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and a 72-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His walk rate dropped for the second consecutive season, and he has a 12.1 K/9 for his professional career. He proved he could routinely hit triple-digits with his fastball, and his slider is a solid secondary offering. MLB.com ranks Cruz as the organization's 27th-best prospect with a 75-grade fastball and a 50-grade slider. Even though he is a righty, he held lefties to a .640 OPS with 30 strikeouts in 89 at-bats. Nearly 85% of his plate appearances came against older batters because it was the first time in his career that he was significantly younger than the average age of the competition. There are no guarantees that Cruz will be selected in next week's Rule 5 Draft, but elite fastball and strikeout totals give him a chance. Plenty of non-contending teams across baseball can take flyers on relievers like Cruz that can pay big dividends down the road. Do you think the Twins will regret leaving Cruz unprotected? What can his ceiling be at the big-league level? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Every minor-league player is searching for a path to the big leagues. In recent years, the Twins have had mixed results with players acquired through the Rule 5 Draft. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Sports (Wells), Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports (Baddoo) Next week, the MLB Winter Meetings will take place in San Diego, and the Rule 5 Draft is part of the annual event. The opportunity is given to teams to select unprotected players from other organizations that meet specific criteria. Rule 5 Draft eligibility is tied to when a player first signed with their club. Players signed at 18 or younger must be added to the 40-man roster within five seasons. Players signed at 19 or older have four seasons before they must be protected. For this year's draft, high school or international picks signed in 2018 had to be added to the 40-man roster, and college players signed in 2019. There are also rules tied to the drafting of a player. During the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft, drafting clubs pay $100,000 to select a player. From there, the player has to stick on the team's 26-man roster for the entire season or be offered back to his former team for half the selection fee ($50,0000). Over the last decade, here are some of the players tied to the Twins through the Rule 5 Draft. Minnesota's Best Pick: Ryan Pressly The Twins had the fourth overall pick in the 2012 Rule 5 Draft after finishing with 99 losses the previous season. There were plenty of holes to fill on the roster, so the Twins selected Ryan Pressly from the Red Sox organization. Pressly spent six seasons in the Twins organization and posted a 3.75 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. He had an 8.0 K/9 and a 112 ERA+ before the Twins traded him to the Astros at the 2018 trade deadline. Pressly has gone on to have a tremendous career in Houston with multiple All-Star appearances and a World Series title. He provided plenty of value to the Twins before the trade, and both players acquired from Houston project to impact the 2023 roster (Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala). Twins fans can play the "What if?" game with Pressly, but he likely wouldn't have reached the same level of success without moving to Houston. Minnesota's Worst Loss: Akil Baddoo Baddoo was Minnesota's second-round pick one year before the current front office took over. He had shown some promise as a prospect, but he had played fewer than 30 games above the Low-A level, making it easier to leave him unprotected. The Tigers took him with the third overall pick in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, and he went on to have a tremendous rookie campaign. In 124 games, he hit .259/.330/.436 (.766) with 20 doubles, seven triples, and 13 home runs. He provided 2.1 WAR for a Tigers team that started moving in the right direction. From the Twins' perspective, losing Baddoo was challenging because the club desperately needed outfield depth during the 2021 campaign. Last season, Baddoo struggled at the big-league level as his OPS dropped to .558, and the Tigers sent him to Triple-A to find his swing. He posted a .905 OPS with 14 extra-base hits in 30 games, so there is some hope for him to return to his performance level from his rookie season. The Jury's Still Out: Tyler Wells Minnesota left Wells unprotected in the same Rule 5 Draft as Baddoo, and Baltimore took him in the second round with the 17th overall pick. The Orioles used him as a reliever throughout the 2021 season, and he compiled a 4.11 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and 10.3 K/9. Last season, the Orioles transitioned him to a starting role, and the results were mixed. In 23 starts (103 2/3 innings), he had a 4.25 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a 76-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He ranked in the 59th percentile or higher in xBA, BB%, and chase rate. His fastball spin also is among the league's best, in the 93rd percentile. Baltimore was a surprise team in 2022, and Wells tied for the second-most starts on the team. He will continue to get opportunities to start in 2023, and he plans to focus on consistency and endurance to become part of Baltimore's long-term plan. The Rule 5 Draft can be challenging for teams to find big-league talent, but it's been nearly a decade since the Twins found a consistent big- league player. Do you think the Twins will regret losing Baddoo and Wells? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

There are multiple ways to address a team's flaws during the offseason. A quick examination of the Twins' 40-man roster shows that the club has a corner outfield conundrum. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Every front office spends the offseason trying to create a roster that can be competitive for multiple seasons. This takes a balancing act that includes established veterans, young prospects, and supplemental players. Minnesota has already changed the 40-man roster this winter by trading Gio Urshela and adding Kyle Farmer. These moves help the team set a floor at multiple starting positions, but there is still room to improve. Corner outfielders are one area where the Twins have a surplus, with nine outfielders on the 40-man roster. Minnesota hopes Byron Buxton can make most of the team's starts in centerfield, leaving eight players for the two remaining outfield spots. Luckily, many of the team's other outfield options have defensive flexibility. Let's take a look at the team's options. Projected Starters: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach Kepler is one of baseball's best outfield defenders, providing significant value even if his bat has recently taken a step back. There is a chance that banning the infield shift will help Kepler's numbers, but it's likely only to generate a few extra hits per season. There is also a chance the Twins will attempt to trade Kepler before the season starts because of the younger and cheaper options available. Injuries have limited Larnach to fewer than 91 games in each of the last two seasons. Last season, he finished 11th on the team in WAR, even though he only played 51 games. He can play both corner outfield positions, but his defense is more limited than some of the team's other options. Entering his age-26 season, Larnach must prove he can stay healthy and produce at the big-league level. Bench Options: Gilberto Celestino, Nick Gordon, Mark Contreras, Kyle Garlick Celestino provides the Twins will insurance for Buxton in center field, but he isn't far removed from being considered one of the team's top outfield prospects. He's only played 51 games at the Triple-A level because the Twins have had an outfield need over the last two seasons. He destroyed the ball last May by hitting .364/.426/.418 (.844), but his second-half OPS dropped to .582. Celestino will play significant innings, but it seems in the team's best interest for those innings to be in center. Gordon surprised many with his 2022 performance by hitting .272/.316/.427 (.743) with a 113 OPS+. Kepler was the only corner outfielder to accumulate more WAR last season, and his OPS+ was 20 points lower than Gordon's. Among AL left fielders, Gordon ranked fifth in SDI, which was impressive considering he had limited innings at the position entering the year. Entering 2023, Gordon will likely continue to fill a utility role. From a roster construction standpoint, it will be intriguing to see if Garlick and Contreras can survive the offseason on the 40-man roster. Together, they form a natural platoon, with Contreras being a lefty and Garlick being a righty. However, they are lower on the team's depth chart at both corner outfield spots, so they seem unlikely to make the Opening Day roster. They each have minor league options remaining, so they can offer organizational depth. Other Outfield Options: Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner Kirilloff was considered one of the team's best prospects before injuries limited him in his first two big league seasons. For his career, he has hit .251/.295/.398 (.694) with a 94 OPS+, but a wrist injury has impacted his power production. Kirilloff underwent a unique wrist surgery in August, and few professional athletes have had this procedure. If healthy, Minnesota's best defensive alignment likely has Kirilloff at first base. Wallner powered his way through the upper minors last season with a .953 OPS. Minnesota waited until the middle of September to call him up, and he posted a 105 OPS+ in 18 games. He is one of the best power-hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization over the last decade. His stock continues to rise, and the team will likely make him the first man up from Triple-A when there is an injury. It's great to have depth at any position, but it's easy to see where the Twins may have too many corner outfield options. Can the team deal one or more of these players to fill other needs? Or are there enough injury concerns to keep all eight players on the roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have multiple young players on the cusp of impacting the big-league level. So, which players have a chance to insert themselves into the AL Rookie of the Year conversation? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota has yet to have an AL Rookie of the Year winner since Marty Cordova took home the hardware in 1995. Other winners in team history include Tony Oliva (1964), Rod Carew (1967), John Castino (1979), and Chuck Knoblauch (1991). The five candidates below will attempt to end the Twins' nearly three-decade drought without a ROY winner. 5. Royce Lewis, SS Lewis is the highest-ranking prospect on this list, but his Rookie of the Year candidacy is complicated. Following his second ACL surgery, Lewis won't be on the field until the second half of 2022, and that's why he is lower on this list. He can return and significantly impact the line-up, especially if the team doesn't sign one of the top free-agent shortstops. If the Twins are in contention, Lewis can provide a second-half boost that might make it hard for voters to ignore. 4. Edouard Julien, 2B Julien was arguably Minnesota's highest-rising prospect during the 2022 season, and the team has already added him to the 40-man roster. In 113 games at Double-A, he hit .300/.441/.490 (931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. His hot hitting continued in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 1.248 OPS with five doubles and five home runs in 21 games. He was named the AFL Breakout Player of the Year, and it looks like his bat is big-league-ready. Julien ranks lower on this list because other players are ahead of him on the depth chart, and he has yet to play at Triple-A. 3. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP Woods Richardson is the organization's highest-ranked pitching prospect who projects to pitch significant big-league innings next season. In 107 1/3 innings last season, he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 115 strikeouts. He only faced younger batters in 14 plate appearances this season since he didn't turn 22 years old until September. He's been a step behind other pitchers in the organizational depth chart, and that's why he sits at this spot in the rankings. 2. Louie Varland, SP Last season, Varland became the Twins' first back-to-back Minor League Pitcher of the Year since Jose Berrios. In 24 minor league appearances, he posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 10.4 K/9. Currently, Varland is scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but there are questions about the health of other Twins starters. If others are healthy, it might be more challenging for him to accumulate the innings needed to put himself in the ROY conversation. 1. Matt Wallner, OF Wallner is an exciting name to consider when examining the Twins' future. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach were considered better prospects than Wallner, but he may have passed them over the last year. His power profile comes with many swings and misses, with strikeouts in over 37% of his minor league at-bats last season. Still, Wallner's power is legitimate, as he combined for 35 doubles and 29 home runs between three levels last season. Wallner may not start the year in the big leagues, but he will be one of the team's first call-ups. Who has the best chance to win the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Award? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins always seem to be searching for starting pitching. One solution to that problem is to lock up young starting pitching, and Joe Ryan is an intriguing extension candidate. Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports 2022 Recap: Ryan joined the Twins at the 2021 trade deadline and made five starts at the season's end with 30 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. It was an impressive start to his big-league career, raising expectations for his 2022 campaign. All three national prospect rankings had him on their top-100 lists entering the season. During spring training, Rocco Baldelli named Ryan the Opening Day starter, which added pressure to the start of his rookie campaign. Ryan ended up leading the Twins starters in innings pitched, K/9, and WHIP. Only Dylan Bundy started more games than Ryan, and only two pitchers (Jhoan Duran and Sonny Gray) ranked higher than him in WAR. Still, his rookie campaign was impressive, with a 109 ERA+. His Hard Hit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and K% all ranked in the 63rd percentile or higher. He surpassed his career high in innings by nearly 25, and his strikeout rate jumped from 7.9 to 10.7 K/9 in the second half. Ryan's lack of secondary pitch usage was one of the most significant issues in his minor league numbers. He was able to dominate hitters with a fastball up in the zone which resulted in some high strikeout totals. Last year, he used his four-seam fastball around 60% of the time, but his slider's development helped keep hitters off balance. Batters hit .245 against his slider but slugged nearly .500 against it. However, the xSLG versus his slider was 143 points lower, so that might point to luck from batters against that pitch. If Ryan wants to be a top-tier starter, he will need to continue refining his secondary offerings. Current Contract: Ryan is in an interesting spot because he didn't debut until age 25. The Twins currently have team control of Ryan through the 2027 season when he'd be 32 years old. In fact, he won't be arbitration eligible until the 2025 season. A lot can happen with a pitcher over the next half of a decade before he reaches free agency. Injuries and poor performance can impact even the best young pitchers, but Ryan and the Twins are at an interesting point in his career. Contract Proposal: Ryan has yet to make life-changing money in his career. As a seventh-round pick, his signing bonus was $147,500, and he will make close to the league minimum ($700,000) until he reaches arbitration. Last season, Braves rookie pitcher Spencer Strider signed a six-year, $75 million deal that includes option years. He will make $1 million in each of the next two seasons and $4 million in 2025. His salary will jump to $20 million in 2026 and then move to $22 million for the final two guaranteed years. Atlanta also holds a $22 million option with a $5 million buyout for 2029. Atlanta has been aggressive with signing their young players, and it is undoubtedly a strategy the Twins could explore. However, Strider had a historic rookie season, while Ryan didn't pitch to that level. A more reasonable option for Ryan could be six years, $31 million with the following structure. 2023: $1m (1.033) - Age 27 2024: $2m (2.033) - Age 28 2025: $3m (3.033 - 1st Arb) - Age 29 2026: $5m (4.033 - 2nd Arb) - Age 30 2027: $7.5m (5.033 - 3rd Arb) - Age 31 2028: $10m (6.033 - FA) - Age 32 2029: $18m option (with $2.5m buyout) - 2nd FA - Age 33 This deal adds two extra years of team control and guarantees Ryan a lot of money at an early juncture in his career. Would the Twins consider this kind of offer for a young pitcher? Would Ryan accept this kind of deal? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER EXTENSION CANDIDATES - Sonny Gray - Luis Arraez View full article

Blayne Enlow was once considered one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects. Now, he is entering the most pivotal season of his professional career, where he needs to put himself back on the prospect map. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Minnesota drafted Blayne Enlow in the third round of the 2017 MLB Draft from high school in Louisiana. He received a $2 million signing bonus to coax him out of his commitment to Louisiana State University. After signing, the Twins assigned him to the GCL Twins and saw immediate results. In 20 1/3 innings, he allowed three earned runs with a 19-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Twins were aggressive with Enlow in 2018 by sending him to Cedar Rapids, where he was almost three years younger than the average age of the competition. For the season, he only faced younger batters in 13 plate appearances. In 94 innings, he posted a 3.26 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. He allowed a hit per inning, and his 6.8 K/9 was low, but there were other positives to work on as he climbed the organizational ladder. Enlow began the 2019 season back at Low-A, where he saw his strikeout rate improve to 9.6 K/9. In eight starts, he had a 4.57 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP. Most of his struggles were tied to his home run rate jumping from 0.4 HR/9 to 0.9 HR/9. He continued to make improvements after being promoted to High-A. Across 69 1/3 innings, his ERA dropped to 3.38, and his H/9 dropped below 8.0 for the first time since rookie ball. Enlow was holding his own while being young for his level. Unfortunately, Enlow faced some challenges over the next two seasons. Like many players, he missed a critical year of development with no minor league season in 2020. Enlow worked to refine his delivery during the shutdown, and he started the 2021 season with something to prove. His strikeout rate jumped to 14.1 K/9 through his first three starts while limiting opponents to three earned runs. Shortly into the season, he threw a bullpen, and his velocity was down. Eventually, the organization discovered that he had a torn UCL and needed Tommy John surgery. Enlow missed the remainder of 2021 but returned to the mound in May 2022, 11 months after his surgery. Also, the Twins thought highly enough of Enlow to add him to the 40-man roster even though he’d be returning from injury. In 25 appearances (11 starts), he posted a 4.73 ERA with a 1.63 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. He posted the highest H/9 and BB/9 of his career, but it can take time for a pitcher to return to his previous form following Tommy John. Last season, Enlow pitched the entire year at Double-A, where he was still young for his level. He is likely to return to Double-A this season now that he is further removed from his procedure. 40-man roster spots are valuable, so Enlow needs to get closer to the player he was before surgery. The Twins will likely need pitching depth in 2023, and Enlow’s presence on the 40-man roster makes it more likely that he will make his big-league debut. If Enlow struggles, the Twins will need his roster spot for other players. Enlow’s 2023 season will be intriguing for fans to watch. He is part of the team’s pitching pipeline, but questions remain about his future. Can he regain his form as a top prospect? Or will he end the season in another organization? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Luis Arraez is coming off a season where he won the AL Batting Title and a Silver Slugger. Do the Twins want Arraez to be part of the team's long-term core? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, USA TODAY Sports Minnesota has multiple items on its offseason checklist, including finding a shortstop, upgrading the offense, and adding to the bullpen. It's also the time of year when teams can approach players about long-term extensions. The Twins have kept their payroll clean for multiple years into the future, and now is the time to capitalize on the organization's flexibility. 2022 Recap: Minnesota originally signed Luis Arraez back in 2013, so the 2022 season marked his ninth season in the Twins organization. As a prospect, Arraez showed signs of the type of hitter he'd become at the big-league level. In nearly 370 minor league games, he batted over .330 and got on base over 38.5% of the time. His limited power and lack of defense skills dropped him on prospect rankings, but his hit tool has followed him throughout the organization. During the 2022 season, he played in over 125 games for the first time in his career, which helped him to qualify for many of the accolades he received at the season's conclusion. His first half was tremendous as he hit .338/.411/.445 (.856) on the way to his first All-Star Game selection. There were second-half struggles as he fought through injuries. In 60 games, his batting average dropped to .289 with a .715 OPS. Clearly, he wanted to stay on the field to fight for the batting title and kept Aaron Judge from achieving the Triple Crown. Besides his All-Star Game appearance, Arraez has been honored with multiple awards since the season concluded. He became the inaugural winner of the Silver Slugger for utility players as he beat out Shohei Ohtani for the honor. At Twins Daily, Arraez beat out Carlos Correa for the team MVP honor. He was also the only Twins player to receive votes for the AL MVP as he finished 13th overall. Current Contract: Arraez was arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2022 as he accumulated enough service time to be designated a Super-Two player. He earned $2.125 million last season, and the Twins have team control over him through the 2025 season. MLB Trade Rumors projects Arraez to make $5 million through the arbitration process this season. He's starting to get expensive, and this might be the best time for the Twins to lock him up long-term. Contract Proposal: The Twins control Arraez through his age-27 season, so the front office needs to decide what value he provides the team in his late-20s and early-30s. The 25-year-old already doesn't have a defensive home while fighting multiple injuries in his career. The Twins will have younger and cheaper options with a similar skill set when Arraez is no longer under team control. That being said, his hit tool should age well, and the Twins may want him as a veteran leader in the future. Over the last two seasons, FanGraphs says Arraez provided the Twins $38 million in value. It seems unlikely for the club to offer him an extension that pays him near the value he has provided, but the team can be creative. Minnesota bought out free agent years from Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco by providing both players with guaranteed money. Both deals look like very team-friendly deals in retrospect, and it will be interesting to see if the Twins can do something similar with Arraez. Kepler and Polanco can provide a blueprint for a deal that might work for Arraez and the Twins. Polanco was guaranteed $25.75 million with options that could make it worth $47.25 million. Kepler's contract was worth $35 million with an option that takes the total value to $44 million. Would Arraez sign a contract that pays him $50-55 million for five years? This type of contract gives the Twins some cost certainty while also allowing Arraez to get life-changing money. Do the Twins want Arraez past his age-28 season? What kind of deal can keep him in Minnesota? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. OTHER EXTENSION CANDIDATES - Sonny Gray View full article

Minnesota traded Gio Urshela last week and handed Jose Miranda the third base job. So, what does the upper minors' depth chart look like at the hot corner? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Gio Urshela was one of Minnesota's most consistent players in 2022, but that didn't guarantee him a spot on the 2023 roster. Comments from the front office at the season's end pointed to them wanting to hand the reins to Jose Miranda after a strong rookie campaign. Offensively, Miranda struggled down the stretch, but he was one of the organization's top prospects entering the season. His future's still bright, but where will the Twins turn if he struggles or gets injured? MLB Options: Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Luis Arraez Minnesota is entering the season with Miranda penciled in as the starting third baseman. He isn't the strongest defender, so Miranda will likely see time at first base and designated hitter. Last season, he played over 70% of his innings at first base, but Urshela's presence forced the Twins to use the better defender at the hot corner. Last week, the Twins also acquired Farmer in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds. During the 2022 season, Farmer played 74% of his defensive innings at shortstop, but he started 35 games at third base. At shortstop, only two qualified players had a lower SDI total than Farmer. He posted -2 defensive runs saved at third base with a 0.1 UZR. He has defensive flexibility, but he currently projects as the team's starting shortstop. Arraez is coming off a season where he won the AL Batting Title and a Silver Slugger as a utility player. The Twins likely want Arraez to move back to the utility spot to try and keep him healthier than last season. During the 2021 season, Arraez played over 400 innings at third, but the presence of better defenders meant he was limited to fewer than 45 innings last season. Nick Gordon can fill in at third base in a pinch, but he saw very limited innings at the position last season. Triple-A Options: Andrew Bechtold, Yunior Severino, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee Bechtold played over 80 innings at four defensive positions in 2022, but third base was the lone position he logged over 400 innings. In 123 games, he hit .233/.329/.400 (.729) with 16 doubles and 19 home runs. Severino split time between second and third base last season while reaching Double-A. He's been limited to fewer than 100 games in two consecutive seasons, but he posted a .907 OPS during the 2022 campaign. Neither player is on the 40-man roster, so that adds an extra wrinkle if they are needed at the big-league level. Fans can debate whether Lewis or Lee is the Twins' top prospect, but both can fit into the team's future plans at third base. Lewis is out following his second ACL surgery until the middle of the 2023 season. He has played 21 defensive innings at third base in his professional career. Lee's played shortstop since the Twins drafted him with the eighth overall pick, but many project him to move off the position. Lee likely starts the year at Double-A, but the Twins showed last season that they would be aggressive with his promotions, especially with his college experience. Double-A Options: Edouard Julien, Seth Gray, Jake Rucker Julien was one of Minnesota's breakout prospects in the 2022 season, and he'd likely get a big-league shot before the other minor-league options on this list. He played 113 games at Double-A last season and hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. His success continued in the Arizona Fall League, where MLB recently named him the AFL's Breakout Player of the Year. Julien hasn't played a lot of innings at third in the minors, but his bat will perform at any defensive position. Minnesota took Gray in the fourth round of the 2019 Draft, and he spent most of 2022 at High-A. In Cedar Rapids, he had a .740 OPS with 31 extra-base hits in 113 games. He splits time between both corner infield positions, but he likely needs more upper-minor experience. Rucker played at three levels last season, even getting a short stint at Triple-A. Last season, he made 47 starts at third base, the position he played most regularly in college. In 124 games, he hit .236/.333/.378 (.711) with 25 doubles, six triples, and nine home runs. Who do you think the Twins will turn to if Miranda struggles or gets injured? Does Minnesota have enough depth at third base? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Many consider Sonny Gray the Twins' best pitcher, so what will it cost to keep him in Minnesota? Does a long-term extension make sense for both parties? Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel, USA Today Sports Minnesota has multiple items on its offseason checklist, including finding a shortstop, upgrading the offense, and adding to the bullpen. It's also the time of year when teams can approach players about long-term extensions. The Twins have kept their payroll clean for multiple years into the future, and now is the time to capitalize on the organization's flexibility. 2022 Recap: Minnesota traded for Sonny Gray and Francis Peguero during the last offseason by parting with their 2021 first-round pick, Chase Petty. At the time, it was easy to see the logic from the Twins' perspective. Petty was multiple years away from impacting the big-league level, and high school arms are never a guarantee. Gray was an established veteran with multiple years of team control. Minnesota's winning window was still open, and Gray helped solidify the top of the rotation. Gray's first season in Minnesota didn't go perfectly, but he was near the top of the team in multiple pitching categories. In 24 starts, he posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a 117-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Some minor injuries hampered him at different points and limited him to his fewest number of starts since 2016 outside of the COVID shortened campaign. His improved on field performance might be related to changes instituted after he joined the Twins organization. For the first time in three seasons, Gray's four-seam fastball was his most utilized pitch. In 2021, he used his sinker nearly 30% of the time, while his curveball was his most utilized pitch in the shortened 2020 season. During the 2022 season, he utilized all three pitches over 24% of the time. Batters posted a wOBA above .300 when facing his four-seamer and sinker, but his curveball resulted in a .232 wOBA and a 25 Whiff%. All three of his top pitches resulted in a negative run value for opponents for the first time since 2019. Current Contract: Gray's current contract was completed as part of his trade to the Reds from the Yankees. With Minnesota exercising the final option year, the contract's total value will be five years and $50.7 million. He has never reached free agency even though he has ten years in the big leagues as part of four organizations. He's made over $60 million in his career, and next off-season will be his first chance to hit the free agent market. Contract Proposal: The 2023 season may add clarity for the Twins to decide if they want to try and extend Gray. Minnesota is likely fine paying the 33-year-old an annual salary of around $12 million if he continues to perform. Last winter, Steven Matz signed for four years and $44 million, while Yusei Kikuchi inked a three-year, $36 million deal. Both those pitchers are younger than Gray, but his track record is better. Gray and the Twins will have to find a middle ground that balances his age and the length of the contract. As baseball moves further from the pandemic, player contracts will start rising again because of a revenue influx. Paying $12-14 million per season for an aging Gray isn't the worst proposition, especially as $100 million contracts are handed out to the top-tier starters. Gray also might be more willing to stay in Minnesota depending on what the club adds during the rest of this off-season. He also voiced some frustration last season about not going deeper into games, but starting pitcher usage continues to evolve. Does a three-year, $40 million contract keep Gray in Minnesota, or will it cost more than that? How high would you be willing to go for a starter entering their mid-30s? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article