Cody Christie

If the Twins miss out on Carlos Correa, they can pivot to the other top free agent still on the market. However, Dansby Swanson lacks some traits the Twins have already seen in Correa. Image courtesy of Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa has clearly been the team's focus throughout the offseason. However, as the team awaits Correa's decision, other free-agent players have signed contracts with other clubs. This situation would leave the Twins with limited options if Correa picked another club like the Giants or the Cubs. There were four top-tier shortstops when the offseason began, and now two names remain. Minnesota can pivot to Dansby Swanson, but he is a different type of player than Swanson. Swanson's Lack of Track Record Like Correa, Swanson was the number one overall pick, but the D-Backs took him out of college. He spent his first seven big-league seasons in the Braves infield and combined to post a .738 OPS with a 95 OPS+. During the 2022 season, Swanson put it all together on both sides of the plate. He hit .277/.329/.447 (.776) with 32 doubles and 25 home runs. Defensively, he ranked third among NL shortstops according to SABR's Defensive Index and won his first Gold Glove. Unfortunately, his lack of offensive track record should make teams leery of how he will age. Clubs must decide if last season was an outlier or if Swanson has put it all together at age 28. Correa's Familiarity with the Team's Core Minnesota got the opportunity to take Correa for a test drive last season, which helped the club see what he means to the team's core. He provides leadership on and off the field, with many of the team's young players viewing him as a mentor. Correa is close to Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda, and other key players who will impact the organization over the next decade. Swanson might be able to build those relationships, but Correa already has an advantage in this area. Correa's baseball IQ is off the charts, which will help him age well and impact future prospects entering the Twins' core. Face of the Franchise Potential Swanson is only seven months older than Correa, but their baseball careers have taken remarkably different paths. Swanson has been a role player on some strong Braves teams over the last decade, but it took him time to put it all together. Correa's career WAR is over 2.7 times higher than Swanson's. Both players have been starting shortstops for a World Series champion, but Correa has played over 40 more postseason games with an OPS that is 128 points higher. For the bulk of the next decade, the Twins and their fans would be able to look to Correa as the best player on the roster. He is the type of player to build a franchise around. Swanson is clearly on Minnesota's radar, but it might be the team doing its due diligence. It will take a significant financial commitment to sign either player, but Correa is a different caliber player than Swanson. If the Twins miss out on Correa, the front office should only turn to Swanson if his market significantly declines in the weeks ahead. Does it make sense for the Twins to pivot to Swanson? How much should the team be willing to pay Swanson? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Projection systems can have pros and cons when providing a glimpse into the team's future. Here are four observations from the Twins' recently released ZiPS projections. Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports FanGraphs referred to the Twins as "underwhelmingly adequate," which seems like an appropriate description of the team at this juncture. Even if the team signs Carlos Correa, there are holes to fill on a club that has fallen out of contention over the last two seasons. So, what are ZiPS projections, and what do they show for a team? ZiPS is a projection system that uses multi-year statistics to try and predict how players will perform for an upcoming season. More recent seasons are weighted more heavily, and StatCast data has helped to make the model more accurate. There are hundreds of thousands of baselines for pitchers and hitters. ZiPS is a midpoint projection for a player, so some players will outperform their projections, and others will fall short. That being said, a few observations stand out among the Twins' 2023 ZiPS projections. The Bullpen is Top Heavy Jhoan Duran is coming off a tremendous rookie campaign, and his number one comp is Jonathan Broxton. ZiPS projects him to accumulate a 1.1 WAR with a 125 ERA+ and a 14.5 K/9. Jorge Lopez projects to see a small bounce-back after struggling down the stretch for the Twins. The model projects him to have a 0.6 WAR with 8.7 K/9. ZiPS projects Cody Stashak to pitch well in 2023, but the team dropped him from the 40-man roster and is now a free agent. He is coming off surgery for a torn labrum, so the Twins must not feel he can help the 2023 team. Will the Twins try to add to the bullpen before the season starts? Minnesota's Offense Projects to Be Above Average Carlos Correa still isn't part of Minnesota's 2023 roster, but there are positives up and down the line-up. Unfortunately, FanGraphs said, "There's a larger-than-normal dropoff if injuries happen to hit hard." In 2022, injuries were one of the biggest storylines for the club. For the second consecutive season, ZiPS projects Luis Arraez to hit over .300, but his projection has limitations because of his defensive. Royce Lewis is scheduled to return from his second ACL injury in July, and ZiPS still has him projected for more WAR than Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers. Buxton's Comp is Disappointing Byron Buxton projects to finish with the team's top WAR (3.9) though the model has him limited to 350 plate appearances (10 more than in 2022). He projects to hit .256/.323/.544 with a 134 OPS+ and 22 home runs. ZiPS lists Jeff Heath as the comp for Buxton, who showed plenty of promise but was also often injured. Fans can hope that Buxton plays in over 100 games for the first time since 2017, but it is unlikely to happen at this point in his career. The Starting Rotation is Bland It's hard to look at any projection system for the Twins starters and have faith in what will occur in 2023. Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Bailey Ober all dealt with injuries last season, and there's no guarantee they can be relied on for a full workload in 2023. Mahle projects to pitch the second-most innings behind Joe Ryan, but there are still questions about his shoulder. The projections have Ober and Maeda pitching 90 innings or fewer. The Twins project to have a bunch of back of the rotation starters, which can help the team contend. However, the team likely needs another playoff-caliber starter to end the team's playoff losing streak. What thoughts do you have about the team's ZiPS projections? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Dansby Swanson might turn into the Twins’ backup option if Carlos Correa signs with another club. Here’s the latest on Minnesota’s pursuit of Swanson. Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota’s offseason focus has been re-signing Carlos Correa to a long-term contract. However, the team has kept other options open, including pivoting to other free-agent shortstops, including Dansby Swanson. Swanson is time to multiple teams, so let’s review what the Twins have done recently. Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic reported that the Twins met with Swanson over video conference during the recently completed MLB Winter Meetings. Swanson could not attend the meetings in person because he married US Women’s Soccer player Mallory Pugh on Saturday. It’s clear that Minnesota is trying to keep as many options as possible open as they pursue a shortstop. Besides the Twins, four other clubs have shown interest in Swanson, including the Cubs, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Braves. The Cubs are in an interesting spot as a rebuilding team but can use a player of Swanson’s caliber. Boston missed out on re-signing Xander Bogaerts as he was offered a significantly higher contract from the Padres. Swanson would upgrade the current shortstop options in St. Louis, but signing Willson Contreras might limit their spending. The Braves would like to keep Swanson if the deal makes sense for the team and the player. Swanson is coming off his best MLB season, as he posted a 5.7 WAR. In 162 games, he hit .277/.329/.447 (.776) with a 115 OPS+ to go along with 32 doubles and 25 home runs. He was a first-time All-Star, won the NL Gold Glove at shortstop, and finished 12th in the MVP voting. Swanson’s 2022 numbers boosted his career totals as he entered last season with a 90 OPS+. However, he has averaged over 32 doubles and 25 home runs in the last two seasons. Free agent deals have been massive this winter, and there is no guarantee the Twins will want to pay Swanson what he is expected to earn. Philadelphia signed Trea Turner to a $300 million deal, while Xander Bogaerts received $280 million even though he is older than Swanson. Would the Twins be willing to go that high to acquire Swanson? Correa and Swanson will be compared because they are the top free agents left on the market. Swanson is seven months older than Correa. Over the last three seasons, he has hit more home runs and stolen 32 more bases than Correa. Swanson has been healthier recently, as he has only missed 39 games over the last four seasons. That includes just two missed games over the last three seasons. Both Correa and Swanson provide significant positive value on the defensive side of the ball. Swanson won the National League Gold Glove and finished third among NL shortstops in SABR’s SDI. Correa won the Platinum Glove in 2021, but his defensive numbers took a hit last season as he ranked 9th among AL shortstops in SDI. His Outs Above Average ranked in the 97th percentile in 2021 and dropped to the 18th percentile with the Twins. Could that be a sign that Swanson sticks at shortstop longer than Correa? The Twins remain focused on Correa, but Swanson is also an All-Star caliber player that has put it all together over the last few seasons. Do you believe the Twins are interested in Swanson? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

There’s no question the pandemic left a lasting impact on baseball. Over the next three seasons, the Rule 5 Draft will be impacted by players signed during the COVID shortened season. Image courtesy of Steve Buhr (Sabato), William Parmeter (Raya) Baseball is entering an unprecede nted time when it comes to prospect development. The pandemic caused the 2020 MLB Draft to be limited to five rounds because high school and college seasons were truncated. Another wrinkle was the fact that the 2020 international free agent class couldn’t officially sign until January 2021. Over the next three seasons, these players will be entering their 40-man roster evaluation year. College players taken in the 2020 Draft must be added to their club’s 40-man roster next winter to be exempt from the Rule 5 Draft. Most high school players taken in that draft will have their Rule 5 decisions made following the 2024 season. International players signed in January 2021 need to be added prior to the 2025 Rule 5 Draft. Baseball America expects there to be a lack of eligible players for upcoming Rule 5 Drafts because of the shortened draft and the canceled international signing period. Minnesota’s 2020 Draft Results The Twins took Aaron Sabato with the 27th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. In 103 games last season, he hit .215/.336/.438 with 17 doubles and 22 home runs. He struck out 142 times in 372 at-bats between High- and Double-A. Many evaluators don’t consider him one of the team’s top prospects, because his bat hasn’t developed as quickly as expected. Unless Sabato has a huge 2023 season, Minnesota is unlikely to add him to the 40-man roster next winter. In the second round, the Twins took Alerick Soularie from the University of Tennessee. Over the last two seasons, he has been limited to 125 games while hitting .231/.343/.376 (.719). During the 2022 season, he combined for 28 extra-base hits in 91 games. He was slightly younger than the average age of the competition in the Midwest League this year. The 2022 season will be critical to show he can find success in the minors’ upper levels. Marco Raya is Minnesota’s highest ranked prospect from the 2022 Draft. Last season, he made his professional debut as a 19-year-old in the Florida State League. In 19 games (65 IP), he posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. Raya has a chance to develop into one of the best starting pitching prospects to come through the organization in quite some time. With his limited professional innings, it will be interesting to see how the Twins handle his workload in 2023 and beyond. Kala’i Rosario was the Twins’ final pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. In 2022, he played the entire season in Fort Myers where he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition. In 109 games, he hit .239/.320/.408 (.727) with 36 extra-base hits. Since he was a high school draft pick, the Twins get two more seasons to decide if he should be added to the 40-man roster. International Signing Period (January 2021) Danny De Andrade and Fredy Michel were the highest ranking international free agents signed by the Twins in January 2021. Last season, De Andrade came stateside and played 48 games in the Florida Complex League. In 178 at-bats, he hit .242/.333/.371 (.704) with nine doubles and four home runs. De Andrade will likely get his first taste of full-season action with Fort Myers in 2023. Michel is following a similar development path to De Andrade with his first season in the Dominican Summer League before playing 2022 in the FCL. Last season, he hit .163/.317/.233 (.549) with five extra-base hits in 40 games. When he signed, Baseball America compared him to a “young Eduardo Escobar,” so there is still hope for him to develop in the coming years. It seems likely for him to repeat the FCL in 2022. It’s clear there are going to be fewer options for teams in upcoming Rule 5 Drafts. The players listed above have important seasons facing them over the next three years. Raya is the lone 2020 pick that looks like an easy decision to add to the 40-man roster. Other players need to show some growth before the team adds them into the organization’s long-term plans. Do you think any of these players can take the next step in 2022? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Padres made a splash on the final day of MLB's Winter Meetings by signing Xander Bogaerts. So, why can't the Twins spend like the Padres? The answer is complicated. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Fans of every MLB team want their franchise to spend more money. It is one of the most straightforward solutions to improve a team because increasing payroll allows clubs to add the best free agents. However, spending more money is no guarantee of success. Plenty of small market teams are annual contenders because of their player development and smart front offices. The Twins and the Padres take different approaches to create their 26-man roster, so why are these clubs so different? Payroll Comparison Last season, the Padres had a payroll of $214 million, with three players making more than $16 million. Minnesota's payroll was $72 million less than the Padres, with Carlos Correa accounting for 24.7% of the team's $142 million payroll. San Diego has Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. signed to contracts worth over $300 million. Yu Darvish and Wil Myers are making $20 million or more in 2022. Currently, the Padres only trail the Mets and Yankees for the highest projected payroll for the 2023 campaign. Market Size Compared to other MLB teams, the Padres are a clear mid-market team, which is one reason San Diego is down to one professional sports team. MLB's three largest markets (New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago) all have multiple MLB franchises The San Diego metropolitan area, and the Minneapolis-Saint Paul markets are similar in population. It seems logical that both teams can spend similar amounts on payroll, but that isn't the case. TV Deals One of the club's most significant revenue sources is its TV deal. Minnesota is entering the final year of a 12-year, $480 million deal that pays the club around $40 million annually. In 2012, the Padres signed a 20-year deal for $1.2 to 1.5 billion, putting the average annual payments to the club in the $50-$75 million range. The Padres also have a 20% equity share in the network broadcasting their games, which means the club can earn more revenue as more fans watch games. Minnesota's expiring TV deal will be interesting to watch over the next year. Will the club be able to spend more in 2023 and beyond because of increased revenue from a new deal? AL Central Comparison Minnesota is in one of baseball's weakest divisions, and the club has a higher payroll than every team in the division besides Chicago. Last week, Ted Schwerzler discussed that the Twins' payroll should be closer to $160 million than $140 million. Cleveland easily won the AL Central last season with a payroll below $70 million. Some expect the Guardians' payroll to increase as a new ownership group gains more say in the team's spending. Detroit has also shown a willingness to spend when the club is in contention. There are similarities between San Diego and Minnesota regarding market size, but the Padres have continually outspent the Twins. Rosters are incomplete for the 2023 season, but it seems unlikely for the Twins to get anywhere near the $235 million projected for the Padres. Minnesota's TV deal is hampering some of its revenues, but they are spending more than enough to be competitive in the AL Central. Should the Twins spend similarly to the Padres? Will a new TV deal help the team's willingness to spend? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Ryan Jeffers is the lone catcher on the Twins' 40-man roster, so it's a clear need for the team. What are some available trade options as the hot stove begins to heat up? Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports The Twins still have plenty of confidence in Ryan Jeffers, but the club prefers to have catchers split time behind the plate. Last season, Jeffers hit .208/.285/.363 (.648) with ten doubles and seven home runs. However, those numbers only tell part of the story. Jeffers destroys left-handed pitching with a .909 OPS against lefties in 2022. The Twins will still use Jeffers against right-handed pitchers, but adding a left-handed hitting catcher would be the team's preference. Finding a southpaw backstop might be a challenging proposition. MLB's Winter Meetings allow front offices to continue trade conversations, and the Twins have already discussed trading for catching depth. According to KSTP's Darren Wolfson, Minnesota has spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Braves about their catching depth. Let's reevaluate the trade options on each of these clubs. Oakland: Sean Murphy Murphy's name has swirled in the rumor mill over the last couple of days, with reports saying a deal was getting close. Atlanta (see below) was rumored to be involved, but the Braves have made it clear they are out of the running. Oakland wants to get major league ready players instead of prospects for Murphy, and they have shown the ability to be patient in the past. In 2022, Murphy hit .250/332/.426 (.759) with 37 doubles and 18 home runs in 148 games. He started 111 games at catcher last season and ranked ninth in SABR's Defensive Index. Murphy also ranks in the 96th percentile for pop time to second base and in the 86th percentile for framing. He is under team control for three more seasons, so acquiring him will take quite the offer. Blue Jays: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno The Blue Jays have a surplus of big-league-caliber catchers on their roster, so it makes sense for the club to deal one of them. Jansen posted a 141 OPS+ in 72 games last season, but he isn't as strong behind the plate as some of the other trade options. Kirk is coming off an All-Star season where he accumulated 3.9 WAR, so it will be hard to pry him away from the Blue Jays. Moreno had an .806 OPS at Triple-A last season and hit .319/.356/.377 (.733) in 25 big-league games. The Blue Jays may want to hang on to their young catchers if a player becomes injured, but the Twins may have something to help Toronto's roster. Atlanta: Travis d’Arnaud Like the Blue Jays, the Braves have three MLB-caliber catchers on their 40-man roster. William Contreras broke out last season, which might allow the team to trade a veteran like d'Arnaud. Atlanta owes him $8 million in 2023, and there is an $8 million team option for 2024. Last season, he hit .268/.319/.472 (.791) with 25 doubles and 18 home runs on the way to his first All-Star selection. He is an above-average pitch framer (76th percentile) and ranked second among NL catchers in SABR's Defensive Index. If Atlanta acquired Murphy, d'Arnaud might be easier for another team to acquire. The Twins clearly need to add to the organization's catching depth. Of the names mentioned above, d'Arnaud is a good target for the Twins. He doesn't form a natural platoon with Jeffers, but left-handed catchers can be rare. His years of team control and past offensive performance make him intriguing, especially if the Twins want an upgrade behind the plate. Will the Twins trade for a catcher? Which name is the most logical trade target? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Major League Baseball held its first-ever Draft Lottery on Tuesday night. Were the Twins lucky enough to move into the top-six picks? Yes! Image courtesy of Twins Daily MLB’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) instituted a Draft Lottery like the NBA and NHL. Previously, the team with the worst record from the previous season was guaranteed the top overall pick. Now, the worst teams aren’t guaranteed a top-six pick, and the bottom three teams have the same odds of getting the top pick. The 18 teams that missed the postseason have a chance at the top overall pick. Minnesota entered the draft with the 13th-best odds of receiving the top pick (0.9%). There are also restrictions on how often a team can participate in the lottery. Teams that don’t receive revenue sharing (large-market teams) can not receive a lottery pick in consecutive drafts. Revenue-sharing recipients (small-market teams) are prohibited from being awarded a lottery pick in three consecutive years. Teams prohibited from a lottery pick can’t receive higher than the 10th overall pick. MLB Draft Lottery Results As expected, the 2023 MLB Draft order shifted because of the Draft Lottery. The Twins made the biggest jump of any team by moving from the 13th overall pick to fifth overall. For 2022, the first 18 picks will follow this order: 1. Pirates (Up 2) 2. Nationals (Down 1) 3. Tigers (Up 3) 4. Rangers (Up 3) 5. Twins (Up 8) 6. A's (Down 4) 7. Reds (Down 3) 8. Royals (Down 3) 9. Rockies (Down 1) 10. Marlins (Down 1) 11. Angels (Down 1) 12. D-Backs (Down 1) 13. Cubs (Down 1) 14. Red Sox 15. White Sox 16. Giants 17. Orioles 18. Brewers Competitive Balance Round Pick Earlier this week, MLB announced the Competitive Balance Draft picks to teams that fall in the bottom 10 in revenue or market size. Competitive Balance Round A takes place after the completion of the first round, and these picks are the only ones that clubs are allowed to trade. Minnesota can hang on to this top-40 pick, or it might be an intriguing piece to trade this winter. The Round A picks are as follows: 1. Mariners 2. Rays 3. Brewers 4. Twins 5. Marlins 6. Tigers 7. Reds 8. A’s Minnesota’s Recent First-Round Picks In the 2022 MLB Draft, the Twins took Brooks Lee with the eighth overall pick, and he has shot up national top-100 lists because of his strong professional debut. During the 2021 MLB Draft, Minnesota had two picks in the top 36. Chase Petty was the team’s first pick (26th overall), and the Twins traded him to the Reds organization for Sonny Gray. Noah Miller was a Competitive Balance Round pick (36th overall) and posted a .627 OPS in 108 Low-A games last season. The 2020 MLB Draft was shortened due to the pandemic, and Minnesota selected college slugger Aaron Sabato with the 27th overall pick. He ended last year at Double-A and posted a .774 OPS for the 2022 season. In 2019, the Twins also had two first-round picks, with Keoni Cavaco selected 13th overall and Matt Wallner picked in the Competitive Balance Round. Wallner has entered the team’s long-term plans after a tremendous season in the upper minors. Cavaco will likely spend 2023 at Cedar Rapids as he continues to develop his swing. What thoughts do you have on the first-ever MLB Draft lottery? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

MLB’s Winter Meetings can be a time for front offices to put the finishing touches on trades. If the Twins want to add to the 2023 roster, here are the organization’s three most tradeable prospects. Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel, USA Today Sports The Twins were very active at last year’s trade deadline, which saw the team acquire two relievers (Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer) and one starter (Tyler Mahle). Acquiring these players cost multiple prospects that were close to big-league ready. Minnesota may need to dip deeper into an already depleted farm system to acquire other players to improve the 2023 roster. Rising Stock: Edouard Julien Twins Daily Prospect Rank: 10 Earlier this week, MLB Pipeline named Julien as the most tradeable prospect. Last season at Double-A, Julien hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) with 39 extra-base hits in 113 games. He carried that performance to the Arizona Fall League, where he led the league in hitting (28-for-70, .400 BA). Julien did so well that he was named the AFL’s Breakout Player of the Year. Currently, there is no direct path for Julien to the big leagues, as his defensive future isn’t clear. Minnesota may decide that other better infield options can make Julien expendable. His stock is likely at its highest point, so the team may want to sell high. Top Talent: Brooks Lee Twins Daily Prospect Rank: 2 On most national rankings, Lee is considered the team’s top prospect entering the 2023 campaign. He was widely considered the best college bat in the 2022 MLB Draft, and the Twins were lucky he fell to them with the eighth overall pick. During his pro debut, he impressed by hitting .303/.389/.451 (.839) with ten extra-base hits in 31 games. Minnesota was also aggressive with him by pushing him all the way to Double-A for Wichita’s playoff run. The Twins will likely want to hang on to Lee, but the club might want to acquire a top of the rotation starter. Trading for that type of pitcher will require Lee to be included in the prospect package. Upside Starter: Simeon Woods Richardson Twins Daily Prospect Rank: 5 At this time last year, Woods Richardson saw his stock drop to the point where he fell off national top-100 prospect lists. He had a resurgent year in the upper minors with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP on his way to making his big-league debut. Woods Richardson is entering his age-22 season, so it seems likely for him to reappear on top-100 prospect lists this winter. Woods Richardson seems the least likely to be traded out of the players on this list. He has multiple years of team control, and he is big-league-ready. Minnesota can include him in a trade for a top-tier starter, or the club can hold on to him and hope he continues to develop. Many fans get attached to top prospects because they offer unlimited hope for the future. Unfortunately, no prospects are guaranteed to succeed at baseball’s highest level. The Twins roster is far from complete for 2023, and trading prospects is undoubtedly one path the front office has to consider. Do the Twins want to go all-in for 2023 and trade other top prospects? Or should the team hang on to the names above and hope they can help the club in the years ahead? Will the Twins consider trading any of these prospects? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Carlos Correa is one of the biggest keys to the Twins' offseason plan. So does the team need to set a deadline for whether they are in or out on Correa? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports With the Winter Meetings starting this week, the hot stove might begin to heat up. Plenty of the biggest free agents and their representatives will be traveling the halls in San Diego. Scott Boras, who represents Carlos Correa, is usually one of the most active people at the annual event. Besides Correa, he represents other top free agents like Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Nimmo, and Carlos Rodon. Boras can see how the market plays out for his top clients, but the Twins might not have the time to wait on a Correa decision. Minnesota has payroll flexibility this winter, with around $50 million in payroll to spend. The Twins will likely get outbid for Correa's services, and the team will have to pivot to other options. However, the Twins might end up with no viable free-agent options if Correa's contract negotiations drag out over the next few months. Some top free agents like Jacob deGrom and Jose Abreu are already off the market, and other names may sign as more conversations occur at the Winter Meetings. Last winter, the market didn't play out in Correa's favor. He switched agents, and the lockout forced him to wait until spring training started to ink a deal. Correa can choose to be patient this winter to see what clubs miss on Aaron Judge before turning their attention to the other top names on the market. Correa likely wants a decision sooner rather than later, but he's expected to sign a contract covering the remainder of his career. It must be a good fit from the team and player's perspective. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have proven the ability to be patient and let the market play out in their favor. However, that strategy almost didn't play out in their favor last year as Correa fell into their laps as spring training began. In previous offseasons, they had made offers to some of the top free agent starters like Zack Wheeler before signing Josh Donaldson to a multi-year contract. Thankfully, the team was able to jettison the Donaldson contract, but this winter might be the time for the Twins to change their off-season strategy. Internally, the Twins should set a deadline to sign Correa so they have enough remaining time in the offseason to make moves that put themselves back in contention. The AL Central is one of baseball's worst divisions, and Minnesota has finished below .500 in two consecutive seasons. Things will be challenging for AL Central clubs, with MLB schedules becoming more balanced next season. According to the preliminary ZiPS projected standings, FanGraphs expects the Twins to finish 81-81, one game behind Cleveland for the division title. Obviously, a player of Correa's caliber can be worth enough WAR to push the Twins to another level. According to reports, the Twins have made multiple contract offers to Correa from six to ten years in length. It's certainly good that Minnesota's front office is engaging him in contract talks, but the team can only afford to see so many free agents sign with other clubs. Bogaerts seems like the player the Twins will turn to after Correa, and the team may need to pivot to him at some point in the coming weeks. If Correa returns to the Twins, it would be in the team's best interest to have a deal in place before the end of December, so the front office can continue to improve the roster around him. Otherwise, the team may be left without few moves to make. Do the Twins need to set a Correa contract deadline? How long can they wait for him to make a decision? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota protected multiple players before the Rule 5 deadline, but only some players can make the cut. Would losing Steven Cruz come back to haunt the Twins? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge The 2022 Rule 5 Draft will take place on Wednesday, December 7, as part of the Winter Meetings in San Diego. It will be the first Rule 5 Draft in two years since last year's draft was canceled due to lockout. It also marks the first Rule 5 Draft since rosters expanded to 26 players. This may allow teams the roster flexibility to carry an extra player for the entire season, especially a relief pitcher that has traditionally been easier to hide. In the last Rule 5 Draft, the Twins lost Akil Baddoo and Tyler Wells, who have each had promising starts to their big-league careers. Baddoo posted a 2.0 WAR season as a rookie before struggling in his sophomore campaign. Wells shifted to a starting role for an improving Orioles squad looking to get back into contention. Will Steven Cruz follow a similar path as Baddoo and Wells? Minnesota initially signed Cruz as an international free agent in March 2017 for $30,000. His professional debut came in the Dominican Summer League, where he posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 16 appearances. He moved stateside in 2018 and saw his strikeout rate jump from 8.0 K/9 to 11.4 K/9 with the GCL Twins. In 2019, he improved with a sub-3.00 ERA and 48 strikeouts across 31 innings for Elizabethton. His walk rate continued to be higher than teams want from a reliever, but he was showcasing some strong strikeout ability. Cruz's first taste of full-season affiliates had to wait until 2021 after the 2020 season was canceled. All but three of his appearances came at Low-A, where he was slightly older than the average age of the competition. In 50 innings, he posted a 4.32 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and 80 strikeouts. His 14.4 K/9 was a career-high, and his walk rate dropped from 6.7 BB/9 to 5.9 BB/9. He was making improvements, and his stuff was becoming hard to ignore. Minnesota was aggressive with Cruz in 2022 by sending him to Double-A with only two appearances above Low-A on his resume. He pitched the entire season out of Wichita's bullpen with 46 appearances. In 56 innings, he compiled a 5.14 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and a 72-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His walk rate dropped for the second consecutive season, and he has a 12.1 K/9 for his professional career. He proved he could routinely hit triple-digits with his fastball, and his slider is a solid secondary offering. MLB.com ranks Cruz as the organization's 27th-best prospect with a 75-grade fastball and a 50-grade slider. Even though he is a righty, he held lefties to a .640 OPS with 30 strikeouts in 89 at-bats. Nearly 85% of his plate appearances came against older batters because it was the first time in his career that he was significantly younger than the average age of the competition. There are no guarantees that Cruz will be selected in next week's Rule 5 Draft, but elite fastball and strikeout totals give him a chance. Plenty of non-contending teams across baseball can take flyers on relievers like Cruz that can pay big dividends down the road. Do you think the Twins will regret leaving Cruz unprotected? What can his ceiling be at the big-league level? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Every minor-league player is searching for a path to the big leagues. In recent years, the Twins have had mixed results with players acquired through the Rule 5 Draft. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Sports (Wells), Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports (Baddoo) Next week, the MLB Winter Meetings will take place in San Diego, and the Rule 5 Draft is part of the annual event. The opportunity is given to teams to select unprotected players from other organizations that meet specific criteria. Rule 5 Draft eligibility is tied to when a player first signed with their club. Players signed at 18 or younger must be added to the 40-man roster within five seasons. Players signed at 19 or older have four seasons before they must be protected. For this year's draft, high school or international picks signed in 2018 had to be added to the 40-man roster, and college players signed in 2019. There are also rules tied to the drafting of a player. During the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft, drafting clubs pay $100,000 to select a player. From there, the player has to stick on the team's 26-man roster for the entire season or be offered back to his former team for half the selection fee ($50,0000). Over the last decade, here are some of the players tied to the Twins through the Rule 5 Draft. Minnesota's Best Pick: Ryan Pressly The Twins had the fourth overall pick in the 2012 Rule 5 Draft after finishing with 99 losses the previous season. There were plenty of holes to fill on the roster, so the Twins selected Ryan Pressly from the Red Sox organization. Pressly spent six seasons in the Twins organization and posted a 3.75 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. He had an 8.0 K/9 and a 112 ERA+ before the Twins traded him to the Astros at the 2018 trade deadline. Pressly has gone on to have a tremendous career in Houston with multiple All-Star appearances and a World Series title. He provided plenty of value to the Twins before the trade, and both players acquired from Houston project to impact the 2023 roster (Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala). Twins fans can play the "What if?" game with Pressly, but he likely wouldn't have reached the same level of success without moving to Houston. Minnesota's Worst Loss: Akil Baddoo Baddoo was Minnesota's second-round pick one year before the current front office took over. He had shown some promise as a prospect, but he had played fewer than 30 games above the Low-A level, making it easier to leave him unprotected. The Tigers took him with the third overall pick in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, and he went on to have a tremendous rookie campaign. In 124 games, he hit .259/.330/.436 (.766) with 20 doubles, seven triples, and 13 home runs. He provided 2.1 WAR for a Tigers team that started moving in the right direction. From the Twins' perspective, losing Baddoo was challenging because the club desperately needed outfield depth during the 2021 campaign. Last season, Baddoo struggled at the big-league level as his OPS dropped to .558, and the Tigers sent him to Triple-A to find his swing. He posted a .905 OPS with 14 extra-base hits in 30 games, so there is some hope for him to return to his performance level from his rookie season. The Jury's Still Out: Tyler Wells Minnesota left Wells unprotected in the same Rule 5 Draft as Baddoo, and Baltimore took him in the second round with the 17th overall pick. The Orioles used him as a reliever throughout the 2021 season, and he compiled a 4.11 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and 10.3 K/9. Last season, the Orioles transitioned him to a starting role, and the results were mixed. In 23 starts (103 2/3 innings), he had a 4.25 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a 76-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He ranked in the 59th percentile or higher in xBA, BB%, and chase rate. His fastball spin also is among the league's best, in the 93rd percentile. Baltimore was a surprise team in 2022, and Wells tied for the second-most starts on the team. He will continue to get opportunities to start in 2023, and he plans to focus on consistency and endurance to become part of Baltimore's long-term plan. The Rule 5 Draft can be challenging for teams to find big-league talent, but it's been nearly a decade since the Twins found a consistent big- league player. Do you think the Twins will regret losing Baddoo and Wells? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

There are multiple ways to address a team's flaws during the offseason. A quick examination of the Twins' 40-man roster shows that the club has a corner outfield conundrum. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Every front office spends the offseason trying to create a roster that can be competitive for multiple seasons. This takes a balancing act that includes established veterans, young prospects, and supplemental players. Minnesota has already changed the 40-man roster this winter by trading Gio Urshela and adding Kyle Farmer. These moves help the team set a floor at multiple starting positions, but there is still room to improve. Corner outfielders are one area where the Twins have a surplus, with nine outfielders on the 40-man roster. Minnesota hopes Byron Buxton can make most of the team's starts in centerfield, leaving eight players for the two remaining outfield spots. Luckily, many of the team's other outfield options have defensive flexibility. Let's take a look at the team's options. Projected Starters: Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach Kepler is one of baseball's best outfield defenders, providing significant value even if his bat has recently taken a step back. There is a chance that banning the infield shift will help Kepler's numbers, but it's likely only to generate a few extra hits per season. There is also a chance the Twins will attempt to trade Kepler before the season starts because of the younger and cheaper options available. Injuries have limited Larnach to fewer than 91 games in each of the last two seasons. Last season, he finished 11th on the team in WAR, even though he only played 51 games. He can play both corner outfield positions, but his defense is more limited than some of the team's other options. Entering his age-26 season, Larnach must prove he can stay healthy and produce at the big-league level. Bench Options: Gilberto Celestino, Nick Gordon, Mark Contreras, Kyle Garlick Celestino provides the Twins will insurance for Buxton in center field, but he isn't far removed from being considered one of the team's top outfield prospects. He's only played 51 games at the Triple-A level because the Twins have had an outfield need over the last two seasons. He destroyed the ball last May by hitting .364/.426/.418 (.844), but his second-half OPS dropped to .582. Celestino will play significant innings, but it seems in the team's best interest for those innings to be in center. Gordon surprised many with his 2022 performance by hitting .272/.316/.427 (.743) with a 113 OPS+. Kepler was the only corner outfielder to accumulate more WAR last season, and his OPS+ was 20 points lower than Gordon's. Among AL left fielders, Gordon ranked fifth in SDI, which was impressive considering he had limited innings at the position entering the year. Entering 2023, Gordon will likely continue to fill a utility role. From a roster construction standpoint, it will be intriguing to see if Garlick and Contreras can survive the offseason on the 40-man roster. Together, they form a natural platoon, with Contreras being a lefty and Garlick being a righty. However, they are lower on the team's depth chart at both corner outfield spots, so they seem unlikely to make the Opening Day roster. They each have minor league options remaining, so they can offer organizational depth. Other Outfield Options: Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner Kirilloff was considered one of the team's best prospects before injuries limited him in his first two big league seasons. For his career, he has hit .251/.295/.398 (.694) with a 94 OPS+, but a wrist injury has impacted his power production. Kirilloff underwent a unique wrist surgery in August, and few professional athletes have had this procedure. If healthy, Minnesota's best defensive alignment likely has Kirilloff at first base. Wallner powered his way through the upper minors last season with a .953 OPS. Minnesota waited until the middle of September to call him up, and he posted a 105 OPS+ in 18 games. He is one of the best power-hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization over the last decade. His stock continues to rise, and the team will likely make him the first man up from Triple-A when there is an injury. It's great to have depth at any position, but it's easy to see where the Twins may have too many corner outfield options. Can the team deal one or more of these players to fill other needs? Or are there enough injury concerns to keep all eight players on the roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have multiple young players on the cusp of impacting the big-league level. So, which players have a chance to insert themselves into the AL Rookie of the Year conversation? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota has yet to have an AL Rookie of the Year winner since Marty Cordova took home the hardware in 1995. Other winners in team history include Tony Oliva (1964), Rod Carew (1967), John Castino (1979), and Chuck Knoblauch (1991). The five candidates below will attempt to end the Twins' nearly three-decade drought without a ROY winner. 5. Royce Lewis, SS Lewis is the highest-ranking prospect on this list, but his Rookie of the Year candidacy is complicated. Following his second ACL surgery, Lewis won't be on the field until the second half of 2022, and that's why he is lower on this list. He can return and significantly impact the line-up, especially if the team doesn't sign one of the top free-agent shortstops. If the Twins are in contention, Lewis can provide a second-half boost that might make it hard for voters to ignore. 4. Edouard Julien, 2B Julien was arguably Minnesota's highest-rising prospect during the 2022 season, and the team has already added him to the 40-man roster. In 113 games at Double-A, he hit .300/.441/.490 (931) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 17 home runs. His hot hitting continued in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 1.248 OPS with five doubles and five home runs in 21 games. He was named the AFL Breakout Player of the Year, and it looks like his bat is big-league-ready. Julien ranks lower on this list because other players are ahead of him on the depth chart, and he has yet to play at Triple-A. 3. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP Woods Richardson is the organization's highest-ranked pitching prospect who projects to pitch significant big-league innings next season. In 107 1/3 innings last season, he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 115 strikeouts. He only faced younger batters in 14 plate appearances this season since he didn't turn 22 years old until September. He's been a step behind other pitchers in the organizational depth chart, and that's why he sits at this spot in the rankings. 2. Louie Varland, SP Last season, Varland became the Twins' first back-to-back Minor League Pitcher of the Year since Jose Berrios. In 24 minor league appearances, he posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 10.4 K/9. Currently, Varland is scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but there are questions about the health of other Twins starters. If others are healthy, it might be more challenging for him to accumulate the innings needed to put himself in the ROY conversation. 1. Matt Wallner, OF Wallner is an exciting name to consider when examining the Twins' future. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach were considered better prospects than Wallner, but he may have passed them over the last year. His power profile comes with many swings and misses, with strikeouts in over 37% of his minor league at-bats last season. Still, Wallner's power is legitimate, as he combined for 35 doubles and 29 home runs between three levels last season. Wallner may not start the year in the big leagues, but he will be one of the team's first call-ups. Who has the best chance to win the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Award? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article