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Woof Bronzer

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Everything posted by Woof Bronzer

  1. Woof Bronzer
    Maybe, although I must say I see the "every team does this" a lot on this site, always in defense of the Twins. I just find this to be a weird philosophy, to be proud of maintaining the status quo and doing the same thing as every other team. Wasn't the whole crux of the saber movement to do things differently, to not rely on the same conventional wisdom? Especially when we hear non stop about the Twins market limitations. Should they be doing what every team does? Or should they think outside the box and try to find competitive advantages that may differentiate them from other clubs? Whenever I hear "every other team does this" I say, "that's too bad, why do the Twins want to copy everyone else?" My point here is that the Twins margin of error is pretty thin and they should not take games for granted. As supporting evidence I will point to 2022 - turns out they needed far more wins in May/June than they got, in order to overcome injuries and poor play in September. I would love to see an extensive study on injuries, "load management", etc. It sure feels to me like all these scheduled off days and abundance of caution has not led to a reduction of injuries but rather an increase! But maybe I'm just doing the "back in my day" thing. But 20-30 years ago I cannot recall it being common for teams to have multiple injuries and IL stints just 10 games into a season.
  2. Woof Bronzer
    By my count the Twins have had 2 give-up games (2nd game vs Marlins, this one) in 10 games. At this pace, they will have 32 give-up games this season. I'm guessing the Central will be decided by a handful of games (in other words those 32 games will have a major impact on the division) so I would encourage the Twins to take every game seriously. Why in the world would you sit Buxton on a day when almost all of your decent offensive players are out?
  3. Woof Bronzer
    I get the sentiment here, but I will say, look at last year. The club dropped plenty of winnable games in May/June that at the time, didn't seem like a huge deal because they had a decent lead in the division. Came back to bite them in September. Good managers have an instinct for when to, if not sprint, then at least give a burst here and there. Can't go 100 mph for 162 straight games, but I would have liked the club to put the proverbial boot on throat when they were 4-0. Coming into this series 6-0 would feel a lot different than coming in 4-2 on a 2 game losing streak. Just my thought, I know I'm not making a data driven argument, so feel free to rip away :)
  4. Woof Bronzer
    If you think replay is correct 99% of the time you don't watch sports, sorry. My opinion is that the replay takes fans out of the moment (celebrations are now more muted because people are conditioned to wait for replay confirmation), adds dead time to the game, kills rallies and momentum, and removes a human element from games played by humans. That's just my opinion, of course, many others feel differently.
  5. Woof Bronzer
    This sounds good in theory. The problem is that there no guarantee that they will get it right. Watch a football game - do they get every replay right? Absolutely not. So the question is, would you rather take two minutes and MAYBE get it right?
  6. Woof Bronzer
    Hard disagree. Watching an adult man rip out a base and chuck it into the outfield is one of life's great pleasures. A baseball game is the only place on earth where two men argue by kicking dust at each other. Baldelli flipping the bird to the replay booth was probably the highlight of the 2022 season. Give me all of it :)
  7. Woof Bronzer
    Gotta admit, I believe this is the first piece I've ever read that advocates for a hitter to strike out more. What planet did I land on this morning :)
  8. Woof Bronzer
    Been thinking about something the last couple days. I'm sure it won't go over well here but lemme get it off the ol' chest. I think the club really messed up the Alcantara game by sitting Buxton and trotting out the b squad of relievers. Because they had all the momentum in the world with that 4-0 start, coming off of 2 straight offensive explosions. They took their foot off the gas on Tuesday it seems. End of the world? No, but games count as much in April as in September. Look how different the Twins season feels at 4-2 vs 4-0. That one loss spiraled into 2 with a very much shades of 2022 loss yesterday. Man, if they would have come into the Astro series unbeaten and riding high, hey, maybe they take the series from the defending champs and everyone's confidence level is through the roof. Say what you want about the Falvine/Baldelli era Twins, but they have never possessed a killer instinct and I think the team can get too comfortable with rest days and getaway day lineups and saving good relievers for only when you are winning. I don't know. I know this is "soft" stuff and the saber crowd will ridicule it. But I do think it matters. For the first 4 games I saw a new and improved club. For the last 2 I saw 2021/22 all over again. Okay, feel free to tear me a new one now :)
  9. Woof Bronzer
    They had Friday off, and they have tomorrow off. Are people really suggesting that he needs 3 off days for every 5 he DHs? This is a very legitimate question in my opinion.
  10. Woof Bronzer
    I have the same question...when I saw he was sitting I thought maybe it was a belated April Fools joke. 4 games in 5 days and he needs a break?
  11. Woof Bronzer
    Is this a good thing? Pitching worse guys when you are losing seems like giving up to me.
  12. Woof Bronzer
    I think the modern sabermetrics push has resulted in things like heavy shifts, multiple pitching changes dragging out games, early hooks and prioritizing pitcher velocity over health/longevity resulting in the game's best pitchers throwing less, reduction in strategic plays like stolen bases and bunting, and the trend toward 3 outcome at bets. All of which has been dramatically worse for the entertainment value of the game in my opinion. And it's not just me - I read an article that MLB lost HALF of its World Series viewership in '22 vs '16. Attendance is also down almost across the board. So yeah I think these things matter. Cannot freakin believe I just sided with Manfred on anything, I'm going to go shower now :)
  13. Woof Bronzer
    Main takeaway: my goodness is KC bad. Why in the world didn't they pitch their best starter? I feel bad for KC fans.
  14. Woof Bronzer
    Maybe, unless the Twins decide to sit healthy players for some reason. I took my son to a game last summer (we can only afford one game per year unfortunatley, long story). His favorite player by a mile is Buxton and his favorite thing is when Buxton does the truck honk thing after a homer. He even has a Twins trucker hat. Long story short the game we went to happened to be one where they sat an apparetnly healthy Buxton. (And Correa, coincidentally) My son was in tears, or at least he was until a little ice cream help him get over it :) Ended up being fine, but it was really unfortunate. Obviously would have gone to a different game if we'd known he wasn't playing. I think a lot of folks here are forgetting that baseball is a game, and sports are entertainment. Sure, I guess there's no law that says they have to be upfront with all these things. I also think it's pretty short sighted of the club to do some of these things. I have 91 and 87 memories to sustain my fandom; my boy has literally never seen them win a playoff game. He's a Buxton fan first, not a Twins fan first. And I think the Twins underestimate the fan apathy here especially among young people.
  15. Woof Bronzer
    Thanks! I never knew "a business should be upfront with its customers about its product" would be so controversial!
  16. Woof Bronzer
    Baseball is for fans, fans should know who is playing and who isn't. I'm not asking for his chart.
  17. Woof Bronzer
    Haha nice!
  18. Woof Bronzer
    I think fans who are considering buying tickets for a game deserve the truth.
  19. Woof Bronzer
    Ok, I get what you are saying. I think we are saying the same thing. I definitely don't think there was a staff wide yank point all year - I mean, I sure hope not :) But I still don't like the approach of saying "X starter is going 5 today" or "2 times through the order only" before the game starts. Let the game play out, and react accordingly. I didn't think this would be so controversial, sorry I wasn't more clear and thanks for the conversation!
  20. Woof Bronzer
    But the sample size for those ERAs is also small. Why count a small sample size when it supports your agenda and disregard it when it doesn't? And it's going to be skewed when you are only going partially through the lineup the 3rd time - you don't have 7/8/9 patsies to pad your ERA. If Gray hits the 3rd time through the order and he's cruising with a decent pitch count, he should absolutely keep pitching! This is what drives me nuts about the rigid kind of analytics being advocated here. Cherrypick stats that fit the narrative, discard those that don't, and - yes, the dreaded "manage by spreadsheet" approach where it's predetermined to yank a pitcher after 2 times through the order, regardless of performance or game context.
  21. Woof Bronzer
    I mean, you said everybody knows this and the numbers show it...maybe it's not as simple and obvious as you stated? And yes, when pitchers aren't allowed to pitch 3rd time through the order much, the sample size is going to be small.
  22. Woof Bronzer
    Do we know this for sure though? Forgive the vague numbers, but last season the Twins had 6 or 7 starts where the starter was pulled in the 5th or earlier with 75 or less pitches after giving up 0 or 1 hit. If there wasn't a predetermined yank point, with all due respect, the manager should have joined the trainer in the bread line!
  23. Woof Bronzer
    My ask for this year is that there is no predetermined "yank point", the Twins go in to starts expecting long starts out of their starters, and the manager evaluates if/when to pull starters based on a combination of how the pitcher is doing, the game situation, the opponents, the status of the bullpen, and finally data on both the starter and the potential reliever that would have to replace the starter.
  24. Woof Bronzer
    Thank you so much for putting these numbers together. I owe you one! I think a deeper dive would be required to really come to a definitive conclusion, but my takeaway is that if you're going to use short starts as a proactive strategy, a very strong bullpen is necessary. The other thing I would really like to see is a more balanced evaluation between "Should we pull the starter?" and "Who are we going to replace the starter with?". Even if a starter is tiring somewhat or facing the dreaded 3rd time thru, he may still be the best option on that day, for that inning/at bat, etc. Thanks again, I really appreciate the discussion!
  25. Woof Bronzer
    Thanks so much for the explanation. I better understand now where you were going with this. Personally, I was talking about specific outcomes. I.e., how did X reliever do on X date after Gray was pulled in X inning. I tried looking and it doesn't appear there is an intuitive way to gather this data, so maybe this is a moot point. But to look at it from your perspective I think you'd need to include the entire bullpen right? Not just the best relievers. Because part of my theory is that pulling starters early taxes the bullpen unnecessarily. In other words it forces you down the road to use lesser quality relievers because the better ones are overworked. But of course, this is hard to quantify too.
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