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Woof Bronzer

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Everything posted by Woof Bronzer

  1. Woof Bronzer
    It's because strikeouts obviously do matter. This is the problem, their entire philosophy relies on factually untrue things. If strikeouts didn't matter the Twins would fill out their entire staff with cheap Carlos Silvas, yet their offensive philosophy pretends otherwise. Baseball strategy is not simply about selecting one "right" formula and stubbornly sticking to it regardless of results. You might need a different strategy given the score, the inning, how the game plays out, the opponent, the point in the season, the pitcher, the hitter, the weather, health, who's on the bench/in the pen, whatever.
  2. Woof Bronzer
    Incredible. Any idea on the length of this sequence in real time?
  3. Woof Bronzer
    There's a reason Falvey hires young, hungry, inexperienced guys like Popkins and Baldelli: they're willing to carry out his philosophy uncritically, and they don't have a track record of success that would give them the equity or expertise to push back or disagree. If Popkins or Rocco are fired they'll get replaced by clones. For me, as long as this organization is unfailingly committed to a deeply flawed philosophy built upon severe misunderstandings of statistics and the game of baseball itself, nothing will change.
  4. Woof Bronzer
    I like the creative thinking....my fear would be that Duran's arm would explode after two starts because I just don't trust the Twins to manage him safely through a significant ramp up. But it's probably past time for new and different thinking so I hope the FO is thinking about creative ways to dig out of this mess.
  5. Woof Bronzer
    I think you should write about whatever you want to write about Lou! Good work.
  6. Woof Bronzer
    A strikeout is just another type of out. Just ask any sabermetrics guru.
  7. Woof Bronzer
    I think fans probably define pipeline differently. Falvey's philosophy to pitching is extremely simple: "grip it n rip it". It isn't about "pitching" as much as "throwing" and he definitely has a lot of throwers in the organization. For extreme sabermetrics guys like Falvey results don't matter - only "velo" - so it wouldn't surprise me if Falvey believes he actually HAS delivered a pipeline.
  8. Woof Bronzer
    Plenty of blame to go around - I'm getting strong "Total System Failure" vibes about this season.
  9. Woof Bronzer
    Good piece but I think fans are going to have to firmly push back on the injury scapegoat that the Twins are inevitably going to trot out. Let's not fall for it. Just about every team is dealing with a huge injury or 2 (Bieber's season ending injury is much more impactful to the AL Central race just to name one. Strider, Cole, etc.) And the Twins know full well that injuries happen in waves with this team. They saw last year how many starters it takes to get through a season - then actively decided to thin out the depth of the rotation. That decision is hurting the team as much as any other.
  10. Woof Bronzer
    Exactly. Asset in the bullpen, liability in the rotation.
  11. Woof Bronzer
    Sure...but there's a direct and obvious correlation between payroll and roster quality. The Twins themselves seemed to acknowledge this; they simply thought they could cut payroll and still waltz to a division title (this is precisely why Joe Pohlad cited the Os and Rays as models he admires). All the FO wizardry in the world wasn't going to allow Falvey to sign a #2 starter to replace Gray while cutting $30mil at the same time. Again: I'm not a Falvey fan and he botched the budget he was given, I agree with you there. I just don't think you can blame him for the payroll cuts, that was clearly a Pohlad choice.
  12. Woof Bronzer
    Don't get me wrong, Falvey has his hands all over this mess too, but this is the first time I'm hearing speculation that he was the one to make the decision to cut payroll and not the Pohlads. Do you have a source for this?
  13. Woof Bronzer
    George Orwell could not have come up with a better, more concise illustration of how sabermetrics has warped the collective mind of an entire sport.
  14. Woof Bronzer
    Oh, gee, well if his xwOBA is good, there's no debate to be had here....case closed! My take: an OPS around .300 is bad.
  15. Woof Bronzer
    I, and many other posters, have explained to you the problems with your "analysis". It's clear you are extremely invested in your narrative and nothing anyone says is going to change your mind. That's totally fine, you do you. But I'm not going to engage any further. Good luck to you on your intellectual journey and remember: there's nothing more powerful than an open mind.
  16. Woof Bronzer
    Congratulations for assembling statistically meaningless, cherrypicked data. If you are serious about working with data I'd recommend taking a statistics 101 course . EdX or the like have some good online options, or check your local community education center or community college. Honestly it's not the most exciting material but it's one of the most helpful courses I ever took as an undergrad. Once you do a lot of the things posters here have been telling you might make more sense. Good luck to you on your journey.
  17. Woof Bronzer
    The term for this is "cherrypicking". You looked at one variable. This would be like looking at the 4 "successful" businesses and saying, they all have a website, so that must be the key to success. What your "research" wouldn't turn up is that several unsuccessful businesses also have websites, so having a website actually is a terrible indicator of success, and your research was absolutely meaningless.
  18. Woof Bronzer
    Did you think the Pohlads actively making the team worse was going to increase attendance? My theory is that some fans are very sick of the Pohlad greed are deciding to spend their money elsewhere.
  19. Woof Bronzer
    I cannot fathom why.
  20. Woof Bronzer
    Going back and reading your previous posts in this thread now that you've admitted that you didn't actually do the research you claimed, thus nullifying every single point you were arguing, to do is a blast. This one is my favorite so far, in which you pat yourself on the back for doing a "great deal" of research...that you didn't actually do. Incredible.
  21. Woof Bronzer
    Stunning. So your "research" is not actually research. You're just playing the sabermetrics game of finding a data set, any data set, that confirms your preexisting opinion. In this case, that everything ownership and the FO do is absolutely brilliant and beyond criticism. Incredible stuff. Can't wait for you to lecture us again on "facts", should be fun!
  22. Woof Bronzer
    I don't understand the hand wringing about the offense. This is the FO's vision for baseball. It's working perfectly. Falvey and even Rocco lectured fans all offseason that their process wasn't going to change because exclusively hitting home runs is the only way to win baseball games in 2024. For the sabermetrics crowd, outcome doesn't matter; it's the process that counts. And the Twins are executing the process - swing as hard as you possibly can, strikeouts are totally fine - to a T.
  23. Woof Bronzer
    Biggest concern from me is this entire organization, from its words and actions from ownership down to the players, from the minute the offseason started to free agency to spring "training" to Week 1, firmly believes they are going to cakewalk to this division title. They might still be right. But in my experience the baseball gods don't look too favorably upon hubris. And the "vibes" around this team right now are not good.
  24. Woof Bronzer
    Mostly by spending money! One team in the bottom third of payroll has won the Series since 91. So if you think the Twins strategy of cutting payroll, dumping salary, and exchanging proven major league talent for fliers, is a good way to build a "sustainable" good product, then we (and history) disagree. Do you have those lineups showing 9 better Twins hitters than Polanco yet? We're all waiting...
  25. Woof Bronzer
    Yes, Mr. Dunning-Kruger, I'm going to go out on the limb and suggest that Falvey saying "I think our focus might turn more to the position player route", coupled with the actual fact that the Twins did not pursue or sign another starter, meant they were done looking for starters. Your take seems to be that Falvey lied and the Twins were actively pursuing a starter and failed. Which would make Falvey really incompetent, and a liar to boot. Interesting take.
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