Woof Bronzer
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Everything posted by Woof Bronzer
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Wow you sound like a pleasant person. I hope the rant made you feel better, but you don't really state any facts or useful information whatsoever, other than that you seem to have some anger issues you may want to work through. In fact it seems to me that for all your baseball genius you don't understand the difference between baserunning and base stealing. And you didn't address my point that teams didn't invent base stealing in 2023. Why, in your godlike brilliance, do you think that plenty of teams decided to steal bases prior to that? For example, the As stole 341 bases in 1976. What was the size of the base, O Holy One? And why, milord, would the As choose to do this?
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Thanks for linking. That chart is very illuminating. I know there's a correlation between payroll and winning but the chart is even more stark than I would have guessed. The problem is worse than I thought...
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No thanks. When you use the emotionally based evidence like some guy yelling "Let's Go Mets," to make your case, but demand that others use cold hard facts, you are arguing in bad faith. I get it, your team benefits from the current system and you don't want that to change. Have a nice day.
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Oh great, you made a point that you gave zero thought to, and now just dismiss it as irrelevant. Nothing says "good faith" like "I'm just spitting out words, don't expect me to defend them." Also, some rube yelling "Let's Go Mets" has me convinced: the game is in fabulous shape and we don't need a salary cap. Great job all around, no notes!
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Shockingly, a Yankees-Dodgers Series had more viewers than an Oklahoma City-Indiana NBA championship. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I'll need a little more evidence than that to show that baseball's in great shape. Can you share a comparison between the 2023 World Series viewership and the 2024 NBA finals? I'll patiently wait. There's a name for cherry picking data to support your own beliefs and ignoring the data that doesn't...prop...propag....ack, I'll think of it...
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The dude is a METS fan? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha it all makes sense now.
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Uh, you care, you made the point and you are screaming at all us idiots who dare to disagree. You can't possibly make the argument that the MLB has a ton of parity while hand waving away the data point that 1/3 of teams in every season have almost zero chance of winning a series. Maybe your definition of parity is different than mine, but the last thing I'd call a league where 1/3 of the teams have no chance and 5-6 of them make no effort to try to win in any given year a "king of parity". And it's not "literally true". I know we live in a world where people think something is true just because they want it to be, but that isn't how things work. There's no formula for parity so there's no objective truth to be had here. You are an expressing an opinion; I'm expressing my own opinion that suggesting MLB has more parity than the NFL is absurd.
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I get your point, but no need to use misleading data to support it. How many of those World Series appearances were teams in the bottom 1/3 of payroll? One team with a payroll in the bottom third has won a Series since the Twins' last title (Marlins). In the NFL the smallest market team in professional sports (Green Bay) happens to be one of the more successful franchises. You can say caps benefit owners, which is true, without falsely claiming that there's as much parity in MLB as the NFL. Come on man.
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Don't get me started...
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You mean the guy who once opined that the Twins were a possible landing spot for prime-career Alex Rodriguez isn't credible? Knock me over with a feather!
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This is almost certainly untrue. The $400m has nothing to do with an ownership stake. (Note that the Pohlads have never used the phrase "minority owner" but rather "limited partner". This is intentional.) The $400m is conveniently the amount of the debt. The Pohlads found some hedge funds or private equity to pay off the debt for a certain ROI. The 20% thing is just the Pohlads again trying to artificially pump up the value of the franchise. They did this through the media throughout the "sale" process by feeding things like "buyers are interested" and "a sale is imminent". Stop believing Pohlad propaganda folks.
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Matthew, I hate to break it to you, but according to the last couple Wallner articles, if you criticize Wallner you don't know anything about baseball. Sorry bud. Seriously - good piece, you took a cold scientific approach to this and let the results shape your opinion, rather than start with an opinion and cherry pick stats to support it (and belittle fans who dare to feel differently). Thanks for this!
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Charley Walters was one of the many guys in local media who uncritically printed Pohlad propaganda around how "a sale is imminent" and "there are interested buyers". Once it came out that the Twins were not selling and a sale was never imminent, I would have hoped that these "journalists" would have a moment of self reflection and realize that they were just being used by the Pohlads to generate fake interest in the club to try to drive up the price, and that maybe - just maybe - they should stop printing whatever the Pohlads feed them. It appears that self-reflection did not happen. I refuse to believe a single word attached to the Pohlads. And I really, really wish we had a media willing to challenge them, rather than just carry their water in exchange for "access".
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The title of the article is "Do Twins Fans Know That Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach Are Different People?"
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Fair enough, we must be looking at different articles. For what it's worth I understand that Wallner and Larnach are different people.
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The Twins went 73-89 in 2021.
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Who, specifically, thinks Larnach and Wallner are the same player? I don't know that I've seen a single person make this case on this website. I think there's a feeling that the 2 are redundant, that the Twins have too many left handed hitting one tool outfielders, but that's not what the writer is addressing here. Can we get an example of someone claiming they're the same player?
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I assume you are referring to the rule change about running through 2nd base...or maybe widening the 1st base runners lane....not finding any other recent rule changes. You are saying these rule changes unlocked baserunning and base stealing as a viable strategy? That for the previous 150 years teams were hesitant to run the bases aggressively due to these rules? Interesting take but the data doesn't support that...
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Agreed! "Analytics as a philosophy" is how you get to a point where 8 years into his tenure it finally occurs to Rocco that baserunning is a component of baseball and a strategy/tactic at his disposal.
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- byron buxton
- luke keaschall
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Haha you proved my point better than I ever could! "Sabermetrics is gospel! If you disagree you're an idiot." Analytics are a tool, not a philosophy.
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Yep this demonstrates a misunderstanding of statistics. A large data set may say, all things being equal, over thousands of at bats, your odds of doing X is Y. But the thing is, baseball is actually played in extremely small data sets. These are called at bats. Your odds of doing X in this one at bat depends on 1) the specific pitcher 2) the specific hitter 3) the game situation 4) the weather 5) the park 6) other external and internal factors. What an average hitter does against an average pitcher in an average at bat weather- and park-normalized over many years may be helpful back pocket info, but it really has little bearing on the outcome of particular at bat. Think of football. The coaches card may call for a field goal in a 4th and 3 situation, but if your QB is Tom Brady, the defense is the Denny Green Vikings, and it's likely your last possession, you're going to overrule the spreadsheet and go for it. Yet in baseball, the saber guys will kick the field goal 100% of the time and if anyone dares to question it they'll just say "can't argue with the data, every team in the league kicks that field goal."
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- byron buxton
- luke keaschall
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"Stop with all the negativity! All you guys do is complain about things you have no control over! Also, Dan Gladden must be fired, I hate him so much I made it my username so I'd never forget how bad he is and how much he should be fired! But like I was saying, negativity sucks!"
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- derek falvey
- jeremy zoll
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Thanks for the advice! I'll be whatever fan I want to be though. Enjoy the losing!
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- derek falvey
- jeremy zoll
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If Lee, Keaschall, and Buxton are the core of a team it's a 90 loss team minimum, probably closer to 100 losses.
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- derek falvey
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It's because the saber guys don't understand statistics. Just because data shows that home runs are a more efficient way to generate runs than by stealing bases, for example, does not mean you should try to hit home runs with every swing and never ever steal a base. The saber guys take these huge, extreme leaps with data and they're just wrong. Jocks and math do not mix. I'm guessing 150 years ago when the first baseball game was played, the hitters learned the rules and said "I'll just try to hit a home run every time, that's the best way." And probably by game 2 they realized "easier said than done" and started to understand the value in things like hitting for contact, sacrificing runners, stealing bases. We're living in an age where the saber guys think they've cracked the code to baseball that couldn't be cracked in 150 years. It's slowly starting to turn, but it'll take a while to dig out of this mess.
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- byron buxton
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