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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He just has to hit over .800 to be worth the $11 million. Now that he has gone nearly a month and has an 1120 OPS and a 208 OPS plus is pretty good. FYI Arreaz at his incredible start is only at a a 202 OPS+.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Which hitter on our roster has been more productive than Gallo in this early season so far? I think this answers your question. Now he could go on a hitless streak and prove your point.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Ummm . . . seems slightly backhanded there. I think a few people thought that he had a change to get to 1.000 OPS and if he did that he would be well worth the $11 million we are paying him. Yes he had had poor production the last 2 years so it was a bit of a gamble, but it is looking like he is performing pretty well here in the early going. We need a few more hits but overall a good OBP and good OPS.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I really want to watch Cossetti some more this spring. See if his bat continues to perform and potentially at higher levels. Right now he is leveling A ball pitchers so far. If he provides some promise we may not need to look at catcher as something we need to address in the 1st round. To me there are 2 elite bats and 2 elite pitchers. Can we get 1 of the 4.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He has hit .250 once in his lifetime, the thing is can the Twins get his batting average closer to .250 than .190? The higher it goes the more valuable he becomes. He has had an over .800 OPS 4 times. Last year the threshold for a top 30 hitter was right around .800 OPS. The goal is that Gallo would be higher than that.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    There is 2 things you aren't accounting for, 1 is a more compact swing, 2 is less shift. He should have an additional hit to his total as well for what was counted as an error in the Kansas City game. I don't anticipate to hit at this level. However, if he maintains a .250 batting average he will be a top 30 hitter in the MLB and that is valuable.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I disagree, they started having prospects and ammunition to do the deals they needed to get the type of pitchers we needed. We traded away our 1st round draft pick high school pitcher for Sonny Gray. That was over a year ago. That was 18 months ago. The got Ryan at the end of 2021. They got Maeda in 2020 Health wise the cumulative affect is starting to show up now, due to health and other reasons. It just feels like more has been done. No the difference is they have been gradually getting to this point, we had a health issue with Maeda. We have better catching now to help the pitchers. We also have a better bullpen and better starting pitching which help out each other. You can't rebuild a pitching staff overnight, and the Twins haven't even though it feels that way. As to the pipeline, we have a couple options at higher levels, and we have traded away 4 of the decent pipeline arms for help on the major league team. Even still to have the arms in the major leagues, Paddack available for future years, Varland, Winder, SWR, Balazovic and any other arm that might surprise us in the future. That is light years better than the past. I will stop here as we each have our own opinions.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Quite the change from you were done with this front office 😂 As stated then you have to take the emotion out of a singular signing, lack of signing ect. They have a template and follow it. They continue to gain value on the margins, and the decisions generally always seem to have a positive impact to the organization. The cumulative value is starting to show up. Now can the higher salary players continue to perform. We will see. Here is the thing, they keep taking big swings. The contracts they do are friendly to the team. They keep plugging away. We need to rebuild the minors again and this draft will help, but the front office has done a good job of having immediate success, using trades to continue to be competitive and continue to draft well to keep the pipeline fairly well stocked. We went from a weaker team with a stronger minor league last year, to the opposite this year. The entire organization is light years ahead where it was 5-6 years ago.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think Lopez can be a closer, but I do think there is a learning curve. However I am completely fine where he is slotted now. I think the Twins wanted him to regain his confidence this spring, and he has done exactly that. Jorge has regained more of his control and whiff percentage, although 3 strikeout inning will sure help. We are definitely in the small sample size, but the performance is similar to 2022 beginning. Which tells me a couple things, the first is, his performance last year wasn't a fluke. 2. Is that he likely wore down as the year went on last year which caused possibly a lower arm slot with less movement as the year went on. I think the Twins and Jorge will be cognizant of the arm level and will continue to work on that. I also think Jorge will be better prepared to handle a full seasons worth of work.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    "MLB said time is of the essence, and argued Diamond Sports' request to delay a hearing on the matter to mid-May wasn't reasonable. Still, it agreed to delay the hearing from the originally requested date of April 13 — this Thursday — to April 19, at which point it hopes the court will approve its motion to compel payment or return of the telecast rights." https://www.fiercevideo.com/video/mlb-and-diamond-sports-argue-over-late-payments-amid-bankruptcy I had wondered why we hadn't heard anything. Looks like Wednesday they will have a hearing. They also stated they have the funds to pay for all the licensing fees. Looks like will remain on Bally's for the remainder of the season. I was sure wishing MLB would take over.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Twins deal end after this year, and the Twins are not interested in renegotiating the contract. Thus why the Twins were the last option. If the Twins continue to play well, Bally's may decide to pay up, but as of now I think they let them go to MLB.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If Dollander is available at #5, effectively #4 if we want to out pay the rangers, I think the Twins take it and run. We are also only 150k below the Tigers and only 150k above Seattle who has the 6th, 29th, 30th pick. I think Dollander will regain a little of the feel as the season goes on. You don't find many pitchers that can pump up to 99, and has 3 other mlb pitches. Yes he may need a little coaching, but other than Skenes those both look like strong building blocks to any rotation.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This was the one trade that I felt was an overpay but it happens. As to this trade it really comes down to Steer vs Miranda. I think they will provide fairly equal value, but either one of the 2 players was going to be our long term 3rd baseman, and both may ultimately get bumped by Lee. CES is purely a big bat with some injury history. Most likely a DH bat but again not a whole lot of spots for him. I feel this is good for the Twins if they can extend Mahle, and of the pitchers I think he is the one most likely. If not we will get a draft pick, or comp pick. I think we lose this trade unless an extension occurs. However, its similar to how we got Joe Ryan. The issue was Mahle was never going to be that final piece.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If Larnach becomes a healthy solid player. That leaves us down to Kiriloff, who with Gallo currently playing the way he is, we look protected at 1st. Then the last question mark comes down to Polanco at second. Can Polanco get healthy and stay healthy. If not you have Julien waiting in the wings who could be our lead off hitter of the future.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Wow just looked at Langfords stats . . . wow 1.488 OPS. Gonzalez is 1.055. Looking like we will get a really good player at #5. Will come down to do teams want bats or pitchers.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    What makes the draft crazy is when a team wants to save money for later in the draft and pick a lower prospect to save a couple million. I don't see that happening in top 4 picks but it could. Dollander, Skenes, and Crews definitely seem like the top 3 right now. If anyone of those 3 drops you take them.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Likely picked Dollander Crews Pool of possibly available - Langford, Skenes Waldrep, Clark Gonzalez Next Tier and wildcards - Bradfield, Lowder, Mitchell Its too hard to follow, but right now these are the players I am focusing on. Langford Gonzalez are you college batters Clark has the potential to be elite. We will have a very good pitching prospect available at our pick most likely. Waiting to see injuries and performance. Bradfield has elite speed, depending how this season goes with stealing could prop him up a bit. Lowder has the stuff. Mitchell would be the best Catcher available.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This is a year for Martin to prove his skills. To me he is a .280 to .300 hitter and a .400 OBP player if he can continue to progress and make it to the big leagues. Personally I think of last year as a 1 off year for him. I think he needs good health and confidence, and I think he finally started gaining that confidence towards the end of last year and it rolled into fall ball. With his speed I think he will be a good asset in the outfield. I don't think his defense will make it at SS, possibly 2nd, but might as well use the wheels in the OF.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Boy it appears time plays tricks on us a bit. When we started the offseason it was clear the team was trying to manage the roster with a lot of potential possibilities that they thought the offseason would go. I think they thought they had a shot at resigning Correa but they weren't sure. They wanted Miranda preferably at 3rd and still do. So in a very short order we traded Urshela and then got Farmer for essentially the same price we got Urshela for. Yes Urshela is better than farmer but it made sense at the time. Ultimately we are talking about 9-10 million dollars for Urshela. We then used 11 million on Gallo. The real question is between those 2 who has a better year, my bet would be on Urshela but I could see Gallo winning that. We have some flexibility with this roster, and overall I don't think losing 1 year of Urshela is really that big of a deal. Zips is expecting .280 average .340 OBP and 15 home runs for Urshella. They expect Gallo to have .195 BA .330 OBP and 25 home runs. effectively slightly more upside with Gallo just on expected stats. Eh, we won't know until we play out the season but the offseason went over about as well as anyone could have expected, and if the biggest thing we can complain about is we would have been better off with Urshela than someone like Gallo . . . well lets just say we must not have too much to complain about.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He had like 48 innings of elite production now almost 3 years ago. Now he purposefully did not pitch last year, to hurt his draft stock (it may have done so anyway). Even with the workout, his 3 major pitches are still there. The control was a tad off last June but still rusty. I fully expect him to be very strong at A and A+ ball this year. I have no doubt he will be the ace on each team. His talent is that good.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We only need 1 Pagan. Maybe Barnes could offer a little more upside. I think Pagan performed better in August Sept.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Priellip is far from a lotto ticket. However, he had limited innings success and basically 2 years of not competing. He looks like a #1 or #2 from the left side. We still have to wait and see what he looks like in getting the rust off, however I really think this is going to pay off, and was the reason the twins were willing to trade off our 2 lefty prospects from the 2021 draft.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So we give up Evan Sisk and Cruz but will have possibly added Alexy, Ortega and able to retain Enlow. We gained some lottery arms and gave up a couple and gained an excellent defensive RH OF. The twins keep improving on the margins. I’m still waiting for them to pull the trigger on Kepler. I don’t think the Twins could have a drawn up a much better off-season.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Umm . . . We are creating more of a pipeline, but also realized we used 3 of our better pitching prospects from the 21 draft class to get the current pitchers we have. I personally like it. We can utilize them for now, and worst case flip them for an awfully good prospect at the deadline. We have never said before we have too much pitching. We can now let these pitchers develop in AAA rather than sending them to the wolves. We have a couple projects in AAA this year we have picked up off the scrap heap I am happy about. For long term Pitchers we have Joe as #1. Then I personal think Varland will be the next best pitcher of the next group. I hope 1 of Ober/Winder can stay healthy enough to be a quality pitcher. Personally that is a pretty good pipeline. Add in SWR, Priellip, Raya, Festa and Balazovic, I think the starting pitcher pipeline will be ok.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This is a great position for the Twins to be in. Miranda gets another year to show us what he can do at the MLB level, and 2 is we can get a better baseline of what Lee can do at the pro level by seasoning in AA and AAA. We have seen players hit a wall at AA or AAA - however, Lee who has a very good IQ and work ethic will most likely do fine. he is a high floor, medium to high ceiling. He will likely not be a superstar, but a very very good foundational piece. We are set to continually have a very good infield for the foreseeable future.
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