Hawkeye Bean Counter

LOL, for a team that has just kind of thrown a bullpen together, we seem to want to try to build an elite bullpen by accumulating as many options as possible. Not sure how we can carry them all.

This team has a very high ceiling with a healthy Correa and Buxton (I know know 😉). If Kepler is the Kepler from the second half with Lewis and Julien. Those are 5 very good to elite batters. I like the pitching staff, especially if Paddack and Desclafani are healthy.

Damn you beat me to it. I really like Miller, and his walk improvement, OBP and OPS rise throughout the end of the season, was a major reason for success of the high A team, but also a hopeful precursor for things to come with Miller.

If Priellip is on the list, it means he has been healthy and productive. He will not be in the majors in 2 year after not pitching for almost 3 years.

To me this is just taking the high draft picks and throwing them up on a board. Ok lets look at outside of number 1 or number 2 picks in 3 years who is in AAA on the verge of mlb and top 5 pick. My top player basically because it is the safest pick and I have a ton of confidence in is Tanner Hall. In college he was an elite pitcher with mediocre fastball velocity. If the Twins add 3-4 mph to his fastball, with his command and secondary pitches, you have a low end #1 or a high end #2. That will play and play well in the minors. Corey Lewis - the kids stuff is nasty. 5 pitches, can handle them all well with 1 of them being a randomly thrown knuckleball that hitters have no clue what to do. A sub 2.5 ERA in A and A+ ball. He can pitch. If the stats continue he will continue to rise on the prospect list. I am going to cheat here. 1 of our pitcher picks in rounds 8-13. Stoffal, Dougherty, Dunn, Langenberg, Pasqualotto, Lee. That is a stupid amount of talent in the late mid rounds. Every year we have lower picked pitchers in the draft flash. We picked better talent in these rounds than we normally do, and more of them. I have no doubt one will flash, and be a very very bright spot. For hitters, I think Jenkins and Rodriguez is up in 2026. So I am left with 2 outfielders to pick from Winokur and Gonzalez. Gonzalez has the hit tool. Winokur has everything else with a questionable hit tool. I lean towards Winokur. I think he will flash more and will be viewed more as an athlete with power and elite defense, while Rodriguez is a bat only option. Invariably 1 of our other draft picks will be up there but I am going to throw out a wild card. Noah Miller. Some may laugh. The kid is already an elite defender at short stop. Late last season something started to click. He had an .820 OPS in August. Look at his OBP rise - June .240 July - .320 August .354 Sept .365. That is a kid figuring it out and becoming more confident in his approach. He also had 38 BB in his last 2 1/2 months, only 61 during the entire year. His first half was crap with the bat . He was our minor league version of Kepler. If he can begin to be more consistent and bring a high 700 OPS low 800 OPS as a defensive shortstop, that is a hell of an asset. We have some pitchers with high ceilings we just don't know much about them or have injury concerns. Priellip, Soto, maybe even Questad to a degree. There is just too much variability and lack of performance to be confident in picking any of them as a top 5 prospect in 2 years. I hope they flash, but the track record on high school pitchers or heavily injured players is not good.

Didn't they do that with Correa, Buxton, and Lopez. With a payroll our size there is only so many of those contracts you can have. I think managing a ball club is a lot harder than most here think. Who would you have signed this year, and then we will discuss if it was a realistic option. As to injured players, in my opinion they got Desclafani for free or in my opinion actually a negative asset in the trade. If he is injured he is put on the 60 day and we are in the same spot. Lets see how Paddack does this year. Maeda performed pretty well for us all things considered. Mahle was a train wreck. For your concern spending on a player like Joey Gallo- you also had players like Donny Barrels, MAT and Castro sign for low money or even a AAA contract and perform well above expectations. The dollars spent on depth last year won us the division. So I find that a weird angle to go after. You will hit some on Gallo like players - but most times won't. In reality we took the same risk the cubs did with Bellinger. Its just Bellinger paid off. Honestly, regarding payroll dollars I wouldn't have signed Correa the 2nd time. I would have traded him at the all star break. Now that may work in our favor keeping him, but I wanted Lewis as our shortstop. We may end up though with an elite infield. Lewis, Correa, Lee. Correa can slide over and one of young bucks take over for Correa if his defense starts to decline. They have rebuilt a team, organization and farm system. The Twins are expected to win the Central again. Is that truly failure even if in a weaker division. Although I will say the Central appears to be on an upswing. Of mid to small markets, I think only the Rays have done better in the last 7 years. When you look at the farm system we have a ton of promise coming up, we will see if it comes to fruition.

I agree, we are on the same path here. Pohlads felt comfortable letting the salary be high knowing a lot of the salaries would be coming of in the next few years.

Who were you going to sign that was going to make a difference? The only contract that made sense at this point would be Sonny Gray. 3 years $75 mil is a fair contract. The issue is we got a very good draft pick for letting him go.

If he isn't healthy, it means the strain isn't healing on its own, or with PRP injections, meaning he will need Tommy John. Even if cleared I am going to be having Paddack nightmares in those first 2 months worried it gives out. If he can get 3-4 months in should be good to get through the season.

Do you trust Montgomery to perform like he did for a 1/2 season for the next 5-6 years? I don't. The Twins don't spend big on pitchers for free agency. Yes if he wanted a 1 year 20 mil contract I think the Twins would jump on it. I don't see it happening.

1 question for everyone, do you believe ownership allowed the Twins to skyrocket payroll for 1 year last year after they had already pivoted away from Correa and then were able to sign him. I fully think last year was a one off. Add in the RSN issues and its a 1 off the other way. Even still the team is in my opinion having better health and depth than last year, especially in the bullpen and then at this point with Buxton (knock on wood). Yes I would rather have Gray than Paddack, but with that being said Paddack may have even a higher ceiling than Gray especially in a playoff scenario (even though he hasn't shown it accept in fleeting moments). For me a lot comes down to the health of Desclafani. Is he even a pitcher we can count on this year or not. If he is I feel a lot better on this season. If not then we need to make another move at some point and may still need to make a move on the SP market even if he is healthy.

Staumont when he talks is already throwing the ball. Maybe not at 100% and maybe taking a little longer to get his feel back. I agree I don't think they plan to put him on the 60 day. The only change in that philosphy is that the plan was always to put him on the 60 day, and treat him as almost a trade deadline player that you don't have to trade any assets for. Desclafani's situation is just weird as he hasn't been given an all clear for almost 8 months.

I really think we need another arm. In reality we have room for 1 more player, 2 if my biggest concern comes to fruition and Desclafani is put on the 60 day and may be done for the year.

Honestly he could stay healthy, my concern would be is the following. Adrian is a much better contact hitter than Buxton. To me buxton would have to improve his contact. Right now just too much swing and miss.

I would agree if you put those 2 together into 1, you would have potential hall of famer.

Almost completely agree with your take. I do think he can play in the outfield with his elite arm even with a bit of poor foot speed. As to his bat and prospectus as a player, a top 150 ranking is about right. He has the ability to be one of the top hitters . . . if and its a bit if . . . he can develop more plate discipline. He crushes anything in the zone. He can crush somethings out of the zone similar to Vlad Guerrero, but he also has lots of weak contact to add in. Its a great project for AA. I think he will be much more developed and with more training will show much better than he did in last years cup of tea. Now the question is can he be elite like he was in A ball? That is the question.

Its a bad take. Also after a full season of these kids playing and another draft, I am firmly of the opinion that this will be a top 10 possibly top 5 Farm by the end of the year but I am assuming Lee is still not a full time member of the MLB yet and still a prospect.

I agree with this philosphy for the pitching side I am going to be really following highest ceiling pitchers this year. Canterino, Raya, Priellip, Soto - then the next tier of Festa, Lewis and the rest of the 2022 and 2023 draft picks. I know the depth is really starting to show up on the pitching side, but I want to see a true #1 or #2 develop out of these options and I think there is a pretty good chance it happens even if its 1 to 2 or even 3 years out.

Well we have added Ryan Jensen to AAA who still has an option. Will see what happens to Balazovic, Duarte and Thompson, see if they get claimed or not. It looks like teams who can put teams on the 60 day in the next day or 2 are Dodgers and Padres, otherwise the rest of the teams rosters seem fairly filled out right now.

Does anyone have any update on Desclafani and his elbow. I have read where they expect him to be healthy, however that doesn't quite jive with what has occurred. So Desclafani, was struggling they found the grade 1 flexor strain and shut him down, after 2-3 weeks or a month can heal on its own. They checked him again in July, it had not healed. They then gave him a prp injection, which if works should be healed in 8-12 weeks, He was expected to be cleared at the end of Sept. early October and said it in an interview. However, at the trade we received an update he has still not been cleared. DeSclafani was limited to 19 starts in 2023 due to a right flexor strain, and while the hope is that he'll be ready for Opening Day, he's yet to get the all clear. Once healthy, he'll compete with Chris Paddack and Louie Varland for one of the final two spots in MInnesota's rotation. So he has gone now almost 7-8 months and it still hasn't healed on its own, even with the PRP injections. Am I missing something here? To me looks like a Tommy John candidate unless he is close to getting full bill of health they are just waiting a little longer to ensure strength. Does anyone have any input on this?

Dodgers are the first team to hit their 60 days as their spring training starts tomorrow. Then the following day the Padres do as they prepare to play their first game overseas. Otherwise the rest of the teams 60 days can be done in about a week. Looks like a rolling time frame, not a set in stone. Dodgers I don't think will mess around with the options, Padres could not sure. But would likely only have room for 1.

Yes I guess there is a slight difference that we are initially putting them out to be claimed (after we had claimed them). Duarte, Weiss, Thompson, and Jensen and Bubba all have options left. Balazovic does not. As Chpettit posted in another post, a lot of these players are rated similarly. The Twins are trying to collect as many as possible to outright to AAA. If they get picked by another team, its part of the business and we have already passed Jensen through. Bubba is an interesting player and I continue to say is very similar to Willi Castro. I do hope he is able to pass through. He has had good numbers in AAA and has immense speed that could be a problem on the base paths similar to Castro. Castro was surprise last year. Most people hated or dismissed his signing. Every once in a while one of these AAA signings or players placed through waivers flashes, or figures something out. To put them all in similar bucket like Chpettit has said as well, is not a crazy strategy that the Twins are utilizing.

I am saying minor league players can have affect on the big leagues. Willi was signed to a minor league deal last year. We are trying to pass these players through waivers likely to play in AAA. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/twins-sign-willi-castro-to-minor-league-deal.html

Not great, but Royals are having to market a better team for getting the new stadium. We are having RSN issues. Yes it is not great, but its the world we are living in. Cleveland has done much less than us and have talked about trading their closer that they have under control for 5 more years - they are also dealing with the RSN issues.

So likely an issue with trying to squeeze the other 2 into AAA good to know.