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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If you have been a fan since the 60's you must be forgetting several poor droughts from the Twins with much less hope or even mediocre results. I still go back to the 90's being a fan and just happy when the Twins got a win as a kid. Fans are much more what have you done for me lately and fickle than what they use to be in the past. Especially over a move or non move when we don't have all the information about what players were available and what the cost would be. The exact same claims can be made about the Yankees so this just wasn't a Twins management issue. As to the pitchers claim in the video's the Twins made a lot of the pitching depth signings in the past of injured pitchers trying to fill a pitching staff, because the pitching pipeline at the MLB level and in the minors just wasn't there. The depth throughout the organization is much much better now. The Twins won't have to dig as deep in the barrel but still will likely lean into their philosophy of trying to acquire injured players (pitchers) thinking the value is there. The argument is the front office thinks the Twins are just happy with mediocrity. I don't think its that at all, I think management tries to put the best product on the field at the MLB level while trying to build up the minor and find those elite prospects to build the team around. Personally I am happy with the direction and have hope the season will turn out better and think it well. The run production seems to be better than where we were earlier in the season, also the team willing to now take some small ball approaches. Maybe they can catch lightning in a bottle, more realistically I am hoping to get some wins in the playoffs.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Jenkins for 1 game sample size, the bat, balance and hard hit balls looks very promising for SSS. Keaschall is the one who the last couple games is ripping the cover off the ball. .714 BA in A ball in 2 games. I know its 2 games, but there is very few people who do that in 2 games over the course of the season. Winokur is also looking like a solid selection and with a hit tool that may be slightly more advanced than we may have thought. Its always at the top of the draft that the Twins have struggled if they hit on these, I feel really confident in the pitchers they selected that at minimum they will hit on a few if not a lot more than normal. Early returns are the Twins look like they drafted very well in this draft.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Any update on either of these injuries??
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The cost is perceived negligible, but we thought Cano was negligible move last year as well. The other is in the Pham trade, I think Rodriguez is a player the Mets targeted most likely. Cost may have been perceived much higher for a Twins prospect. Thats beside the point. In another article it state the Twins management must feel pretty comfortable for 2024 and I think they do. The only way they don't is if the wheels completely fall off at the MLB level and I just don't see that happening. This is a very strong team if Buxton and Correa are performing . . . as of yet they are not. I have more concerns about Buxton than Correa in the future. I still think this is a slightly flawed team but one that could catch lightning in a bottle, I just think this has and always was going to be a slightly flawed team. This was never a year that the Twins were expected to be one of the top teams. Last year I felt the same way and felt they used way to much capital in its trades. Its slightly bit them, but with primary infield bats lost, that is not something I am worried about for the Twins in the near term. As to successful season, I am fine with getting to the playoffs and getting a win or two or winning a series. Ultimately I want Maeda, Pablo, Gray to pitch very well down the stretch. Maeda and Gray so we can get potential get compensation in next years draft. Pablo because I want him to assert that he is a #1 pitcher, and I think he will do that as we close the season. It would be great if Ryan's tired arm is just that, however, I would understand if we will have to wait til next season to see him back performing at a high level. I wonder what Twinsdaily would have been like in the mid to late 90's if it existed. Here we have a ton of consternation over a team middling along and leadership that has given us slightly above .500 teams over its term for the last 7 years and whether they should have made a move at the deadline or not.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Martin has primarily played primarily 2nd base. Helman played 90% of his innings in the infield although more of utility player.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The incentive greatly encourages the Twins to put him on the big league team it will just be trying to maneuver the roster and possible more trades in the offseason. The middle infield depth in the minors is just nuts - Prato, Helman, Brooks, Martin, Severino, Gray, Schobel, Yake, Ortega, Ross, Keaschall.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He lost a year when surgery was likely his best option. I still think he will have some of the best ability in the farm system. it is similar to Priellip. They have strong arm talent you hope you can keep healthy and if so will be a big boon to the organization. Once he is healthy I think he could move up quickly even to the big league team if there is a spot open in the bullpen.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You are going to start seeing more movement as I think you will see a few moves at the mlb team and opening up more spots throughout the minors to allow for call ups and the draftees to get their feet wet. This is a very nice progression for Lee. He is on track to potentially be in the majors next year, and with the incentive of a draft pick for rookie of the year, I think that will encourage the Twins to bring him up. The issue is still going to be spots, Kiriloff, Correa, Julien Lewis, Brooks. See how it pans out.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    These are your arguments and claims: The thought that the Twins starting pitchers are starting to wear down 110 games into a season is a very sad statement. First this team has been hit with a lot of injuries and the starters can't hold up over a season when they are barely over 100 innings. That is a sad statement of the process of this FO. - I counter stating the Twins lead the major leagues in innings pitched by the starting rotation. You then state the following Only Lopez (7th) is in the top 27 pitchers in innings pitched, Ryan 28th, Gray 40. so I don't really care about how the Twins starters have pitched the most innings as a team, because individually they are not. Ok so you acknowledge the Twins have 3 of the SP with the top 40 innings pitched. You realize that is statistically significantly very high. You have 1 in the top 10. I guess that shows to me the front office strategy regarding pitching is working. Now players do get dead arm. To me its very clear that Ryan's fastball is no longer getting the ride it was earlier in the season. From wearing out or ect. I guess I don't take this as a negative on the Twins strategy, its just a young pitcher is wearing down some. I understand having frustration and you fully have that right. I have a differing opinion thinking the strategies that the front office has been taking is to continue to put an average to above average team that compete in the big leagues while it tries to build the pitching pipeline and find a couple stars that can lead it into the next decade. I still think the Twins will outperform down the stretch, maybe I am overly optimistic. I think its very clear Ryan needs a break. I personally thing Sonny Gray is ok and will do well down the stretch and Maeda looks very good right now. I think Lopez will be our best pitcher and lead us into the playoffs. I wish you well, just hope we see some better performance here in the next couple of months.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    So you don't think Ryan or Gray have performed well this year and/or that both look a little worn down and could benefit potentially from a skipped start or two?? Whose system exactly do you think we should be based off of, the Rays who have been struggling just as much as us down the stretch??? I am very confused as to what you are arguing or what pitchers you think we should have that would be pitching better?
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Likely pick up a couple free agents give some players from the minor leagues a chance, and drop some players from the 40 man that haven't performed. Also after the rule 5 sign a few more players and try to sneak a few more prospects back into the minors likely every other year. Most likely lose a prospect or two, let the masses fret and move on. All I am showing is we have a lot of free agents that are on the end of deals and some prospects that can be removed from the 40 man to open spots for prospects on the 40 man that deserve it. I don't know what they will do and who they will keep.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Twins starters have pitched the most innings of any staff I believe, if not right up there. That some players that have pitched more innings than previous years are hitting a bit of a wall is not something new to the last century plus of baseball. If we can give them a bit of breather I think could be good for the rest of the season and as an entire pitching staff have the #8 best ERA. I don't think this is the dig you intended it to be. If you want to go after the batters I think you have a stronger argument.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am good with letting him go, and also fine with Chris Williams being given the opportunity.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I guess I think we have a pretty strong team currently underperforming but good talent and a decent core. I like Jeffers, Julien, Correa and Buxton (both who need to perform better), Wallner is looking decent and Kiriloff was beginning to look like a core piece. . Pitching wise Ober, Ryan and Lopez is a really nice core to build around. Lewis and Lee look like solid players if can stay healthy that should be good additions to the mlb team. There is a slew of pitchers in A and A+ ball, plus what we picked this year. I think you give the system another year and it is going to look loaded. What I want to see is a couple pitchers start coming up that look like #1 pitchers. Last year the team over performed and we got lucky signing Correa (although some will not say has actually hindered the team) and we went all in last year when we likely shouldn't have. I still have a bit of a concern that we are not allowing pitchers to pitch how they have previously had success or different methods to have success. Will Lopez succeed in Florida, why couldn't we fix Cano? But then we seem to get something out of Brock Stewart, Pagan is pitching better and as a whole the entire pitching staff has outperformed expectations. I guess I just don't think the grass is greener and think there is still good potential this FO can build a continual quality organization. I like that AAA has been doing well AA is so/so but A and A+ show more quality players coming up the pipe line and players and teams that know how to win.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We haven't promoted Lewis, Wallner, Julien, Varland, Balazovic, Headrick, Prato, Ohl, Cossetti, Yake, Culpepper, Lewis, Matthews, Morris, Raya, Schobel, Martin, Ober, Stewart and many others. Some performance some to fill in for injuries. Most would have said the Twins should have moved on from Pagan after last year. He is performing pretty well so far this year. Many were clamoring to drop Kepler who has 939 OPS in the last 15 games. Right now Gallo is a major source of discontent. Who should we replace him with, and yes I am fine with letting him go. Who should be promoted in the minors- Lee (a player who just before the all star break some were claiming was a poor pick), Prato, Williams??? I guess I am not sure what your master plan would be and how it would drastically change anything.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Mike, I guess I question why you are on your final straw and what you think would be significantly better. Other than the Rays, there is no other current small market team that is consistently outperforming what the Twins are doing in the past 7 years. Bullpen stats the Twins are outperforming this year. Gallo . . . I guess I agree with you, but right now if Kiriloff is out we do need a first baseman. Gallo even in yesterdays game did nothing with the bat, but may have saved us a run by notifying the coaches the player stepped over the bag. This team ultimately will go as far as Buxton and Correa's bat will take them. If those 2 come along this team could do some damage. I guess for me looking at the whole organization I like what they have developed. They have put a pretty good product on the field but would be better if the bats were performing. I like what is coming up the pipeline and I really like the 2022 and 2023 drafts. There are finally some players that could be all star players. Yes its been 7 years, but they outperformed in 2019 ahead of schedule. I have stated before, even last year the negativity on the boards seems extremely high. I probably just need to ignore it. If I would have a concern its that the Twins in the last 7 years have continually tried to put a competitive team on the field rather than do a full rebuild. Every year they have tried to put a quality product out there. As a fan I can appreciate that. The more times you get a chip and chair the more chance lightening can strike. However taking that approach has also cost the Twins some good prospects (trading away essentially the entirety of the 2021 class) and having lower draft picks in general.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Chapman, Suter or Rayley do not make this a WS competing team on their own. A significant injury to Jax or Duran would hurt any chances. Not sure where you are going with this. We are actually getting an additional arm with Thielbar and may be able to eat up additional innings through starting or relief if we add Keuchel which I believe they will. Chapman was basically traded for a higher velocity Varland prospect and someone like a Jose Rodriguez. Suter was for someone like Floro with more years of control and then you have Raley who the Rays almost win any trade they do. The best value would have been Suter and he would have moved the needle the least. Chapman, I don't know, maybe decent but I still see varland as a back of the rotation starter.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    1. Keuchel hasn't left yet. 2. Who was available that they should have overpaid on and with what prospect? Does any of those moves significantly move the needle?
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lets say this team makes the playoff and wins a round, are they suddenly brilliant. What if they give qualifying offers to Maeda and Gray, and they either accept or decline and we get additional picks in next years draft. What if promotions start occurring in the next weak, are they still incompetent? What if they someone catch lightning in a bottle like Philly or Atlanta . . . I am not saying these are base cases but all of these are possibly. To merely dismiss due to either not make move or making moves of prospects slower than your expectations, seem rather an overreach to state you are done with them. This isn't the first time you have made the claim. I would much rather be in our position than White sox, or Tigers. I think Kansas City is beginning to turn a bit of a corner with their bats and defense, but pitching is still going to take a while for them to build up. Lastly I guess you can say we aren't Cleveland. Oh well I will keep cheering on this team.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I also forget Kepler and Polanco who we have options on.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    On merely the idea they didn't add some one - kind of makes sense. However we don't know who they were targeting, if they were a significant upgrade over what we have and what was the cost. It appears for many players the cost was a fairly high bar. In retrospect the Twins would have been better off making no moves last year. As to RH bat, if Correa, Buxton and Polanco perform, doesn't that negate some need for a right handed bat. As to relievers, Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagan, Floro seems like an above average bullpen. You also have the possibility of moving Maeda to the pen. You have a few more arms that give decent innings. Other than a top reliever who would have been very expensive I didn't see any major needle movers that will change whether this team can do well in the play offs or not. This team has the players they just need to perform better than they have.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Honestly I think at times they have a lack of belief in some of the players who are not the quote stars. As to the 40 man they are going to have a ton of spots available. There is a chance they could lose a player or to but not likely a mass loss after the season. Floro, Headrick, Henriquez, Maeda, Moran, Ortega, Sands, Winder, SWR, Gray, Alcala, Stewart Hitters Solano, Castro, Gallo, Taylor That is a lot of fluff and individuals coming off the 40 man. We can protect all or most of quality prospects that have popped up.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Dman - the other interesting thing to look at is the player that had been looked at as a possibility for that 3rd pick, Hurley, he is struggling quite a bit in A ball in SSS. Overall the potential value of a high school bat hitting has immense value.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Keaschall is heavily leaning towards being a great pick by the Twins. Winokur however has the possibility of being a top 100 prospect if the bat plays. So far 15 innings at short and 8 in center. You have an athletic player that may need to switch to a corner spot, but if can stay in Center or short (which isn't likely) becomes a beast if the power and average shows up.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is statistically in the same WAR as the following pitchers - Verlander Burnes, Berrios, Eflin, Alcantara, Gausman, Kirby, Cease Shrezer (.3 War difference) and I expect many more. He is pitching like a #1 to #2 pitcher. Just needs to keep it up.
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