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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    I understand they weren’t aggressive by any means! DeScla - Varland were assumed to be a combined 5th starter. SWR in 6th slot as depth. Didn’t work out. I see glass half full going forward…….IMO, SWR is serviceable as 4th starter, with only a couple clunkers in 18 starts. Gotta piece together 10 more starts in the 5th starter slot. Assuming Paddack can get healthy over next 6 weeks, I see a complete/strong staff by September 10-15th. Duran - Jax - Alcala - Sands - Varland - Paddack - along with some combination of 2 more guys from following ……….. Topa - Stewart - Thielbar - Okert - Headrick - Richards - Henriquez Ryan - Ober - SWR - Lopez in Playoff Rotation …..this seems to work as a staff! Maybe what you say, competitive but not W.S. contenders? I like the Pen a lot………particularly if the 7th & 8th guys are Stewart & Topa.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree…..hitters mature……they start to understand what certain pitchers are trying to do……..I just think 20% K rate is an unattainable number for Wallner, while maintaining 30 HR power over a season. I think 30% is a great goal - if he gets below that he’s a Superstar……he may be that at 35%?
  3. JD-TWINS
    Listing 4 of the maybe top 6 HR efficiency guys in the GAME. Is Matt Wallner that? Do we expect that of Matt Wallner?……Freddie Freeman - Carlos Santana - Ryan Jeffers - etc., I get it……. 12 guys out of maybe 150-200 guys considered to be significant HR threats……..8–10% to me, that’s not “plenty of HR hitters”, they are big time outliers. Not talking about guys that might hit 20 HR in a good year……Wallner has 35 HR power with enough PA’s. HR “threats” are guys that could hit 30 in a season, IMO. Wallner has struck out at near or around 40% rate……..saying he’s be better at under 20%, again to me, is a fantasy baseball thought - he’s not that guy. He won’t be that guy at 32 or 36 either.
  4. JD-TWINS
    While I get the sentiment - not many guys striking out under 20% of the time that hit HR’s at an above average rate - actually, none. The suggestion of not swinging “full out” to reduce strikeouts has some merit but even “approaching” 20% would stifle Wallner’s value! The logical move is to do what you do……until you get to 2 strikes……then a player needs to dial it back in 80-90% of the situations. It’s nothing that’s not 130 years old…… “shorten up” and “put the ball in play” and “fight off pitches” …….all 2 strike adages still hold up & could/should help Wallner be even more effective and reduce his K’s (my target is 30%) to a reasonable level.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Am not an apologist for ownership but this trade prospects for a veteran or two and if it doesn’t work out, spend your way out of it……..sounds like Roulette. I completely disagreed with the $30M slash of payroll……..Team is back to 2021 spending in ‘24…….sucks! That said, they spent $154M last year and won a playoff series. Buxton - Lewis - Correa are all coming back in ‘24 in better health than in ‘23………. a “we should be just fine” in ‘24 mentality is not surprising! Add some expectation for a guy that finally broke through with a 117 OPS+, Kirilloff, - as well as Julien and Wallner at the same level or better………”we should be just fine”………. DeSclafani & Topa contributing with just a bit of positivity with Paddack & Varland both appearing competent after ‘23 playoffs “we should be just fine”. Not terribly surprising they didn’t go out and spend a bunch or even similarly to ‘23, IMO. Spending in ‘24 doesn’t show deep commitment but the positives going into ‘24, in January/February can be rationalized into ownership not needing to do much more.
  6. JD-TWINS
    ??? The premise seemed to be that they were willing to entertain trading within the Division (our opponents) but that “the ask” was ridiculously high. Surprising, no! Why trade to make a foe better in short term unless you get back something that not only helps your club but also stings for the Twins? I didn’t get anywhere that they absolutely would not trade in the Division.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Well deserved for Ober, with some STIFF competition!!! Sands - Alcala - Jax are guys flying under the National Media ……..I did see Jax get interviewed on MLB Network. Sands & Alcala were both “maybe” guys …….even in April & May. Really nice month for both of them!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Soto should be interesting!! Assuming, assuming that he had his fingers in the Correa decision……..little different animal there. I guess with the Club squarely in the Wildcard, didn’t seem to do much at the deadline (maybe I missed something?) and to me, that says he’s being more prudent and less FAN like?
  9. JD-TWINS
    Around a long time as well. Don’t love current ownership but there’s no hate. To me, the acquisitions that would have helped the club (many of them) were not specifically $$ issues they were “prospect capital” decisions. These are conscious decisions about the health of the future of the club. Another guy at TD stated Gonzalez - Severino - Kiersey for A.J. Puk may have been an option - I agree with that from Twin’s angle but maybe not enough in this market. Trying to get better trading with NEED in the SAME DIVISION is setting yourself up to get raked over the coals for high end prospects. Not really I practical option/approach. While I do think spending contraction of $30M was stifling for the club’s progression in ‘24, the deadline was more about making prudent trades and not tossing guys away for a short term pat on the back. Probably missed out on 2-3 different trades that could have been made but have to be real with the fact that there were a dozen other buyers out there making offers as well. All in all, if Topa does anything positive & Correa can be 85% of what he’s been & back in a couple more weeks, things will be “OK”. They still make the Playoffs - going to be teams at their heals for 50 more games - playoffs aren’t a given. If things click (‘23 D-backs) they are fully capable, with this roster, to get to ALCS!
  10. JD-TWINS
    I get your sentiment. Sure seems the Fan shifted gears quickly last year trading both Scherzer & Verlander away……his new toys weren’t helping them get competitive so he moved them and still had to eat big chunks of their salaries. Maybe not the ideal way to spend all that $$$? They haven’t extended Alonso - yet……he seems to have gotten a dose of “frugal owner” in ‘24. Odd how building across the board with balanced talent v. the big names, have paid off for Mets this year. Obviously, their payroll isn’t thin but he certainly stepped back and seems cautious moving forward.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely no problem promoting him to AA and using him in short stints to simulate a reliever. Am excited to see him progress! I just think saying he’s the best lefty we have is premature after just a few innings at a low level in ‘24. It’s a long way from trying AA on August 10th & pitching in a pressure cooker in the Show on September 15th. To me, not the organization, it seems like a hell of a stretch.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Q: Who gets demoted if Topa comes up in a week or so? Staumont has been OK but seems to be losing his edge…….just saw he’s been DFA’d! Thielbar & Okert have been ineffective. I assume the guy they got from Toronto gets 3-4 opportunities before any judgement is made. Stewart is back on IL. Duran - Jax - Alcala - Sands - Richards - TOPA - Dobnack - Thielbar - Okert …..personally, I think Ronny Henriquez deserves consideration as well for promotion.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Headrick had two nice starts in St. Paul to start the year……I have confidence that he can get guys out in short bursts in the Show after 3-4 more weeks of work. Prielipp is really a stretch, as you point out. He’s hurt 80-90% of the time it seems……he did well in Florida Coast and now one TWO INNING appearance at next level. “Striking out guys like crazy” seems to be a bit of wishful thinking as he would move up 3 more levels. I’d like to see him finish the year without hurting his arm…..,,a low bar. Can’t imagine him ever getting a chance with the big club in ‘24. His stuff might play an inning at a time for big club but protecting his arm and future has to be highest priority over next couple months.
  14. JD-TWINS
    I realize you state his Post-season is limited……4 1/3 innings is almost non-existent. My point is we all here get excited about other’s stats without picking them apart - i.e. Sonny Gray, etc. ………I didn’t call Ober an ACE as I think there may only be 10 in all of baseball. He’s very good - consistent for the most part. EVERYONE pitches against weak opponents………Ober’s successful numbers are spread over 19 starts so somebody in there had a capable line-up or maybe 8?
  15. JD-TWINS
    They are or are not trying to win? I may have misunderstood what you’re getting at here……if so, sorry.
  16. JD-TWINS
    How does moving Kepler help them win? He’s a 2 month rental with good defensive skills and slightly better than average offensive numbers. He may net a AA pitcher and a lottery ticket from Low A. Nobody’s sending Team some stud pitcher for Kepler.
  17. JD-TWINS
    1 hit over 8 innings is a tall order against a AAA Team IMO ……..3.17 over 19 consecutive starts - some good teams and some bad ones, yes - pretty good numbers!! Every other pitcher in MLB that Ober is compared to pitches against good teams and bad teams as well!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Paddack’s availability will play into this strategy - big time! Using him to start every 10-12 days could allow a skipped start for each guy & keep Paddack’s innings manageable as well over next 50 games. To me, an extra day isn’t a big help but an extra 5 days is like a second All-Star break.
  19. JD-TWINS
    3.17 ERA over last 19 starts (omitting only his 1st start) …….to me, that’s a broad enough sample size to have confidence in him against any line-up in the League……..his dominance reaches back further than Detroit’s mediocre line-up. Last year Ryan was much better at home so they set him up to start at Target…….this year, I think it’s the reverse. Depending upon where we play & when, relative to rest, Ober could be Game 1 or Game 2 starter. Rocco loves continuity, so Lopez - Ryan - Ober is most likely, obviously. No doubt, if they are active, Ober will pitch!
  20. JD-TWINS
    7 games with a 7.75 ERA & then last 7 games with ERA of 2.86……..he’s trending as they say. I’d like to see an outing where he doesn’t give up a homer just to prove he can do it - I think Larnach saved him from giving up 2 instead of 1 yesterday.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Hope you are right in Martin ……..seems to me, he’s sent down when Correa comes back. I get he had an impact yesterday and did what he’s good at, shown in your comments. There have been many, many AB’s that he hasn’t shown - I get, “that’s baseball” but his OPS+ is in mid 70’s. He needs to try and add 5 lbs or more of increased strength over the off-season, IMO. Needs a bit more gap power to make his speed play more. Hope he keeps improving.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Road split of 6 games - not bad thing. Need some momentum build this weekend - agreed!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Team loses 45% of the time, so the sky is falling regularly……..am wondering additionally about Paddack for late September-October in the Pen, any updates on his health? An aside - any Correa health updates?
  24. JD-TWINS
    As a fellow fan (I like activity & spending too) after winning a Playoff Series for first time over 18 years ……THAT should bring equity with the fans & excitement should be there! Not the latest deal. The Team signed Correa - traded for Lopez & extended - drafted Buxton & Lewis & Lee……,seems to me they are doing things to add to fan excitement and success! The Fan perspective is continually, “….what have you done lately”. IMO, not realistic view of how the Team should be run, regardless of how much money the owners have. Look at 2023 METS v. 2024 METS….,a very good contrast of Wild spending and then a conservative approach while still EATING the salaries they had going into last year. I get this is a downer attitude or point of view. I just think realism needs to be part of the equation and not just what the Fans want today being the gospel.
  25. JD-TWINS
    As an illustration, the Cardinals attendance in 2023 (a losing season) was 40,013 per game & it was down 900 people per game from previous year. That’s 3.24 million per year in attendance. EVERY YEAR. Gray has given up 5 runs in 4 consecutive starts………Arenado is not performing to contract this year nor any other with St Louis…….Goldschmidt has not performed for past couple years. Their youth is driving their season offensively, generally. Fans come out regardless - am assuming their games are on local TV but this goes beyond just 2024. Their attendance hasn’t wavered since 2006. Excuses to not go to games and blah attendance when a Team won a playoff series a year ago and is in the mix in ‘24 isn’t helping the spending issue. Not the only problem …..but get out & support the players, IMO.
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