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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Robbie Ray is rested as he’s not thrown a pitch in MLB this year.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Snell …..he’s managed 23 1/3 so far this year with a 1.944 WHIP and a 9.51 ERA…..he’s making about $1.5M per start in ‘24…..pump the brakes before taking in next year’s $31M.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Anger mgmt.?
  4. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine a better #7 hitter in baseball? It’s a tribute to the guys in front of him as well, but he really extends the line-up with Jeffers in the bottom 1/3 as well. Speaking of line-up length, Santana - Castro - Miranda….,$8.5M total in ‘24, approximately ……..Wow! ……..,these 3 are consistently performing at the plate!!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. I think he’s just more experienced and better pitch to pitch between his ears.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Seems to continually be getting better - between the ears & with command - can’t change his stuff. With his low walk rate %, if he keeps HR’s down, he’s tough to get many runs off of as an opponent. He’s pitched well before against good line-ups, maybe not recently. I do think his mind is better - he expects to succeed now. I think that’s big.
  7. JD-TWINS
    I wanted Luzardo last year, badly, instead of Lopez……be careful what you wish for…. in ‘24 Luzardo is 3-6 with a 5.00ERA & he’s on the 60 day IL!!! PASS
  8. JD-TWINS
    64K’s/215AB’s…….right? I get 29.8% in ‘24. Maybe my source is off?……whatever, he’s being more effective when not striking out…..we’re talking 2 AB’s in 100 AB’s for the K% difference….not a big deal.
  9. JD-TWINS
    He’s at 29.7% K rate…..not great but it probably fits him. A parallel .260 BA helps one live with the K rate, IMO. Biggest deal is he was on IL for 14 games ……can assume a similar break in 2nd half? If that works out, health-wise, he projects to play 125-130 games……his availability is the key. More Doubles and an OK amount of HR’s works! In 2017, when he played 140 games, he had 36 XBH total for the season. After 63 games played this year he has 24 XBH. With health, his key stat, he projects to 45 XBH or beyond.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I get it, “…..stretches where he’s been the best hitter in baseball….” this is a stretch, outside maybe 3-4 games, 2 or 3 times. Cant though, continually wallow in past failures or disappointments. He cannot hit or recognize most sliders on outer 10% of plate or beyond the zone!! Cannot! Not sure why anyone throws anything in the zone. Fastballs up (many hitters achilles) and sliders down and away………..he strikes out at a 40% rate and probably hits .150. That said, if he hits 18 HR & 25 Doubles for the year while playing in 130 plus games, it’s a big win to have his talent & potential for being a difference maker at #7 in the line-up!!……,and in CF most of the time……,
  11. JD-TWINS
    With today’s OPS average at .706 and League Batting Average at .242 those are lofty standards. His career BA has dropped to .241 after last year. Same thought process, IMO, a .250 BA and 40 XBH would be nice, lower end, expectations. This output combined with his defense and AVAILABILITY get him to his contract level and beyond.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Garver has a lower BA than Vazquez and he’s Seattle’s DH….,at least we aren’t living with that debacle daily!!
  13. JD-TWINS
    If he started more than half the games, it’s so they could get more RH bats in the line-up (both he & Jeffers) is the only logical explanation. I watch nearly every game and don’t recall there not being a strict every other day platoon. Not sure how to access who has started which games at Catcher? I do see Vazquez has been IN 48 games with 167 plate appearances…….Jeffers has been IN 67 games with 264 plate appearances. That equates to 528 PA’s for Jeffers over a season…..a fairly sizable amount it seems. Looks like 6 of the games for Jeffers he was a Pinch Hitter with just 1 AB. It’s obvious that in 2 of the 48 games Vazquez was IN he was subbed in or out? One game he has no AB’s and the other he has 1 AB. The argument is that he was hired for League knowledge - handling pitchers - defense….and he’s getting paid through NEXT year. If a guy at any other workplace was getting paid for future work, even if he wasn’t up to snuff, they’d find something for him to do or some way to contribute…..IMO. That’s where club is at now.
  14. JD-TWINS
    I get it, some people……(most people?) think Vazquez should be replaced somehow. Not happening. Veteran presence catching the staff and solid defensively and $15M due through ‘25, period. ……….it’s the exact same financial timing as Max Kepler last June when everyone, including me, was saying DFA his rear. Not practical. Relative to defense, on one steal the announcing team yesterday said he uncharacteristically threw to the back side of the base instead of the first base side where he had been having so much success this year. On another steal, former pitcher, Glenn Perkins said to Cole Sands through the broadcast booth, “…..come on, you’ve got to be quicker to the plate…”. He missed a catch and an obvious out at the plate yesterday - no doubt. No one play has any bearing on how a guy is treated in an organization…..,it’s like a guy hitting into a double-play on a 2-0 fastball…..it happens, that’s baseball.
  15. JD-TWINS
    So, IMO, The Shiny New Toy comes into play on many of the guys people here want to see……the grass is always greener so to speak. Wanting to see Brooks Lee last year or this year has nothing to do with Vazquez. Lee is the Club’s #1 Draft Pick and there are high expectations…..makes everyone anxious! There’s no need to show stats on how bad Vazquez is offensively…..,I watch all the games, it’s pretty apparent. Sighting Camargo’s offensive numbers from last year are like me sighting Vazquez’s career stats…..don’t really apply to July ‘24. To my knowledge Camargo is getting healthier and contributing in St Paul again….as of last week. Vazquez experience with pitchers, other MLB hitters, and his defense were the principal reasons for his signing. Bottom line is he’s owed $15M for next 1.5 seasons and is going nowhere, save injury. We might as well get used to it sooner than later.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Usage limited, IMO, due to 2 issues. Coming off arm issues……,has problem with walks. He was in a game 10 days or so ago where he walked 3 guys in one inning. He fortunately worked around it but I think there’s a hesitancy due to that issue. He may have needed “some rest” in the view of the organization? Not sure if he has options left - if not, could be just giving him a break on the Big Club’s roster? He has performed, no doubt!!
  17. JD-TWINS
    What’s the transition from MiLB to the Show in numbers? What does “near .800 OPS” get you in the Show? Nobody knows, that’s the issue. Replacing Vazquez with Camargo may net us an inexperienced receiver along with a .620 OPS & to me, that’s not an upgrade. Vazquez missed a play at home a couple games ago and it may be more tolerable if he was hitting - granted. He catches every other day. Bringing up a kid into a situation where he cannot make any mistakes behind the plate, with the staff having a big comfort level with Vazquez is a big ask! I can’t see upsetting things to get another 5-6 hits over 100 AB’s - essentially what Camargo’s upside may be, IMO.
  18. JD-TWINS
    A log jam of options is obviously better than the flip side, agreed! I echo a lot of your thoughts……can’t move off Margot as he’s actually been playing above expectations for more than a month, regardless of the tone here at TD occasionally. Today, IMO, the next move is Lee up and Martin gets displaced (though undeserving). No hurry for this as things are going pretty well. They have certainly given Farmer opportunities …….can’t be easy to get right when playing sporadically but that’s pro sports! If he’s still at .190-.200 late July something serious needs to & probably happens then. I do think Lee gets a shot before Wallner since they essentially know what to expect on the high end from Wallner. It’s probably not a bad idea to get Lee up to play 2-3 weeks before releasing Farmer at some point. Starting Martin at 2B yesterday may signal they are going to respect his performance and keep him up - however, Farmer replaced him late for defense……..?
  19. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati……Montas started the season red hot …….not so impressive since. The Reds organization thinks they are a decent club that’s been snake bitten by injuries……couple guys that have maintained health are underperforming. National League has a real chance of a Wildcard getting in with 85 wins. Due to this, everyone “has a chance” and few will sell. They also have a bunch of guys that are up & coming or hurt - no NEED. for prospects. Montas is interesting. He may not be much different than Paddack though. The Reds only have him this year - somebody that can contribute, that they can control, may be enough……,they’d be dumping salary, which they like. Maybe for Okert? Maybe for Sands?….,these guys could help the Reds in ‘25.
  20. JD-TWINS
    WON 4 of last 5 games, while on the road, without any real offensive help from Lewis. Correa didn’t play today. Couple days ago Larnach and Kepler sat. Jeffers is getting plenty of rest to be solid down the stretch. Starters are throwing into the 6th or better nearly every day. Byron Buxton is playing regularly! Byron Buxton is batting 7th in the line-up and taring it up!! Castro - Miranda - Santana have combined to help the team have arguably the longest line-up in baseball, along with Baltimore. Good stuff. Detroit - Houston - White Sox - Giants heading into the Break. Would be Sweet if Team could take 4 consecutive Series before some time off!!!
  21. JD-TWINS
    I’m not as concerned with the Pen as you seem to be……guys that are available, generally, aren’t that effective. A team might pick up a mercenary like Matt Moore? Through the balance of the Season, Topa probably has about a 10% probability to help out. Henriquez has about a 20% probability to help out. Thielbar becoming revitalized is about a 35% probability of becoming real. Funderburk & Okert & Sands & Staumont are somewhere around 50/50 of being effective. (I don’t see anybody we might actually trade for being any higher level than the guys mentioned above) Alcala - Jax - Duran are guys to be leaned upon! By August 15th, there will be a commitment to Varland to the Pen. He would join the high-end group. October…..Paddack moves to the Pen! If Sands or Topa are the 8th guy in the Pen in October……things are good. Paddack - Varland - Staumont - Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Duran ………Funderburk &/or Okert in October works for me…….Topa? Sands?
  22. JD-TWINS
    It was like watching a poorly coached 5th grade little league team……truly bizarre, hitter after hitter….could have gotten out of it with no runs with a couple basic plays ALSO could have given up 5 runs with the repeated chances given to Seattle. Literally, could have had 7 outs in the inning. I said out loud to myself that I’d never seen anything like this in 55 years of watching baseball……..10 seconds later Perkins said essentially the same thing on the broadcast.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Last two outings he’s given up a solo homer in 14 innings with 23 K’s. Worked out of a couple jams but was then dominant again…….not the 2 best line-ups in baseball but a nice step in right direction……ERA from 5.63 down to 4.88 over 2 starts. Down around 4.00 by end of August and things are going well!!
  24. JD-TWINS
    I don’t think Duran at 100.3 or whatever is a big problem. His breaking stuff being located better has been his issue along with throwing too much breaking stuff. 100.3 fastball - 96 splinker - 85 curve would all be down 3 MPH from his norm or typical high end self, but still awfully good!!! He can get plenty of guys out with his current velocity - just needs to not throw hanging stuff in the middle of the plate. I never see guys squaring up his fastball. Pablo seems to be in his own head at times ……ahead continually on Saturday night v. Seattle but constantly NOT throwing his fastball in the zone, but rather an inch or three off the plate. Get ahead and then after 3 fastballs just off the plate he’s in a 3-2 battle with most batters - no efficiency! Trying to be perfect and pitching away from contact at every turn - this rolls into way too many pitches thrown. He stabilized and got the last 10 guys in a row - but again, like in Oakland, not facing murderers row.
  25. JD-TWINS
    1.100 OPS over last 17 games!!!
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