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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    I have a degree but took stats last in 1982 ……. not really sure what you are getting at with the parentheses, etc.? I can look at Baseball Reference and the number of appearances & innings for all the pitchers on the Staff are shown…….. there is nothing there regarding mode nor mean nor median…… simply appearances and innings. I see nothing in those numbers suggesting over use of the guys in the Pen………should the Guardian’s Manager be fired? Do the Guradians have some reliever superpowers? Again, the Pen innings are an average of use across all games. If they use less Pen innings when Ober/Ryan/Lopez pitch, I would think that would be logical. MLB average in ‘23 & ‘24 for all starter innings was 5.18 & 5.24 ……… Twin’s starters were more than these (slightly) average innings per start both years. Not sure why openers would be omitted? These starts certainly impact Pen innings greatly - maybe Twins don’t do it often & you’re leveling with Tampa specifically (for unknown reason?). Anyway, we obviously see this issue differently. Probably not going to change.
  2. JD-TWINS
    If the TWINS / ROCCO were on an island with Pen usage …. whether it be appearances or pitches or innings…… then I might be swayed. Twins use their starters and relievers as well or better than a big majority of successful teams. Checkout the Guardians Pen usage. Our staff is solid - talent amongst the Rotation guys but not necessarily a lot of guile via experience, at this point. Festa - SWR are “becoming every 5th day guys” ……. Lopez threw 5 innings with mediocre command in his first stint off the IL - no reason to push his innings. Our Pen, on paper, is supposed to be Top 5 or close, so not to use them as needed or as the Manager sees fit, seems like a poor approach to me. IMO, if offense was worth 2 cents and we had another 3-4 wins, nobody would be worried about Pen appearances. Paddack is not a 32 start guy (he’s not!) so they protect him - Festa is trying to become an every 5th day, 30 start guy - SWR is trying to build to 160 innings this year. All this is in the interest of keeping guys competitive over 162 games and trying to set team up to win as much as possible. There’s no Pennant Flag for being “Top 5 in starter innings” at end of September.
  3. JD-TWINS
    It’s April 26th. As you state, Team is at or higher than MLB average in starter innings in recent 2 seasons. The point that I assume everyone understands is that a reliever’s potential to be sharp or even just “serviceable” is a much higher % since his outing is going to be an assumed 8-25 pitches based on effectiveness that day. Max effort 2-3 innings per week breeds much more success. Other than Varland, nobody projects more than 67 innings over the season. I gotta disagree that innings for relievers are moot. If a guy throws 1 2/3 one day and another 2 innings 3 days later his potential to keep runs surrendered down is not as good as if he throws 1 inning 3 times over 7 days…….this is treating “relievers” all the same and not distinguishing long guys v. short ……. relievers that are tailored to face 3-5 guys per inning are going to have better outing to outing ERA success than guys that “pitch less often” and throw to 6-11 guys and get more outs per outing. Look at the Guardians PEN usage. They have a potential problem with games pitched and reliever innings - 7 guys with 60-75 appearances (5 guys at 72 innings plus and same # of potential appearances) ……. pretty different look than Rocco’s screwed up usage of his Pen.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Guy on base and multi time former MVP coming up and SWR was living by his 4 seamer on Saturday…… not the best match-up to get out of an inning unscathed. Stewart came in and threw 6 pitches. I just do not understand the issue with the bullpen use? Varland is on pace for 84 innings - that’s a bunch for many PEN guys but Varland has been a starter until now and is a horse……still, he is at top end usage with this approach. Duran is on pace to throw 67 innings & Jax is on pace to throw 66 innings. Sands - Alcala - Coulombe are on pace for 60-61 innings ……… Topa 55 innings. Starters typically throw more innings after first handful of starts. Where’s the abuse? Is the expectation for these guys to throw less innings than shown here? 26 weeks in the regular season …… 68 innings over the year is 2.62 innings per 7 day week………I’ve posted these same comments 4 times in last couple weeks…….I don’t get what I’m missing? Typical for a minimum of 3 PEN arms per game……..get used to it as it isn’t changing. 2024 - 5.24 innings per start across MLB….. Twins were at 5.26 innings per start. SWR was 5.33 innings in yesterday ……… pretty standard move going to Stewart.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Certainly if they need a guy - at this point, today, I don’t know who he’d replace…….if somebody goes south then sure thing.
  6. JD-TWINS
    He’s more valuable in St. Paul in case someone gets hurt at MLB level. If they bring him up now, who does he displace? Seems any body knocked off the 26 man gets DFA’d and scooped up by another club………can’t just “knee jerk add” without considering the roster moves and risks elsewhere.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Starters first game back from IL - struggling with command……..pick a real issue…….that’s my opinion. There’s not a reliever that projects over 81 innings at this point - Varland, former starter, has most potential innings. The other 4 most used relievers project to 62-64 innings over 162. It’s April 26th - starters throw deeper into games as season wears on - same every year. In late August the starters “will be in need of a break” - same every year. Varland has thrown 27 pitches over the last 5 days and 20 were last night………..what should his usage be? He’s the most used guy to date out of the Pen………….Average length for a start in MLB last 2 years is 5.18 innings and 5.24 innings……that’s over 6 months not 5 starts.
  8. JD-TWINS
    What are the options 30 days after Opening Day? Let’s here it Wizard. Wallner - Miranda - Martin - Rodriguez - Lewis - Keaschall - Eles - etc. ALL hurt…….. Team supposed to have a duplicate MLB roster at AAA? Reality sucks. There’s no alternatives other than to scramble!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Enter Friday night’s performance ……. got away with 1st pitch HR……didn’t look sharp. Got warmed through the inning & he seems to have good stuff 85-90% of his pitches. He does have a propensity to get hurt despite on a few of those mistakes - at a higher rate than most guys. Optimism - sure thing! Is he polished and ready to assume some major responsibility, haven’t seen that yet - just talent & competitiveness. On a good path in the PEN.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely agree. What does a “ten day minimum prior to release after claimed” do for “families and upheaval?” ………. every 16 games on a MLB roster is $76,000 for the player….., there should be “counseling” for these guys? The players union can do whatever the players body wants to do to support their members - the guys on the fringe - with funds and whatever relocation services they want to provide, etc. etc. ……they aren’t being treated like migrant workers! The players are getting an opportunity and at some point, if good enough. they will stick with a club. Free agents at the end of the season and can pursue a deal with whatever organization that is interested……they aren’t stuck in some feudal system. To your point, searching for a problem. The probable solution is to let Teams keep more guys w/o options via some loophole, and then some teams stockpiling fringe guys and signing them to more lucrative Minor League deals & then tipping the balance of talent/fairness.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Gotta think Wallner & Lewis are back by the end of next week - right? Who goes down? Kiersey obviously ……. Lee as well or does Bride get DFA’d? Correa to IL for wrist? 2 Catchers-Wallner-Bader-Buxton-Larnach-Castro CC - Lewis - Keaschall - France - Julien-(13th guy?)
  12. JD-TWINS
    He’s not “done” but I think he’ll get displaced today when Lopez comes back………might be nice to move Festa to a 2-3 inning guy from the PEN …….potentially wasting innings of good production in AAA……doubtful, but maybe worth a shot?
  13. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - Sands isn’t bad though…….2 guys on & no outs……..better to hold them to 2 instead of the 3, for sure. Bader is doing what he does against RH pitching. Really don’t get him not BUNTING 2 different times against RH pitching with no outs and guys on base……seems to be a strategic error!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Keaschall - at least 1 hit in all 5 games played in the Show along with 5 stolen bases. Making things happen!! Jeffers has had 2 really good offensive performances in past 3-4 games. Larnach 2 consecutive games with HR’s - that’s good to see. Very due! Julien keeps slowly improving in the box. Even Lee contributed. Buxton’s dinger gave some breathing room. Correa really looks rough ……. maybe when Lewis comes back he sits a couple games and Lee or Castro play short? Building some momentum to be ready for more competitive clubs coming soon.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Reds could make playoffs this year or next - 3 good starters & 6-7 decent everyday players. I get your point though. Pretty sure the Reds have as good a shot as the Twins in ‘25 - right? ……..Pittsburgh chooses not to spend and continually trade their future away…..hard to feel bad for that franchise. The Top of the stack of teams is where the problem lies……..Dodgers - Mets - Yankees are all spending at 2 plus the rate of Twins. This going unchecked into the future can create such an imbalance that young fans won’t ever be drawn to the game with competition as the core attraction.
  16. JD-TWINS
    He did - a handle flare on to the right field grass………….he’s now 3-21…… not exactly must see!! Couple decent plays at 3B Wednesday night through 4 innings. As of today, Keaschall - Julien - Castro - Lewis - Correa - France seems to be the infield of the future, in ‘25. Wallner - Larnach - Bader - Buxton - maybe Castro? Lee or Kiersey? ………gotta use Castro in OF and keep Lee up to back up Lewis.
  17. JD-TWINS
    IMO - Alcala needs to go down. I know everyone thinks it’s bad to move a starter out of a normal rotation spot ……… Alcala is all over the place with a 10+ ERA …..guys are hitting Festa at a .167 clip first time they see him…….seems like a good 2 inning plus reliever. I’d prefer to see Paddack in the Pen but that’s doubtful after his last 2 starts.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Agree with Fatbat, that even after a looping base hit fighting off a pitch & 2 walks on Monday, Brooks doesn’t seem to be ready for MLB pitching yet - maybe he grinds through? In the short term it seems like Keaschall & Julien at 2B and Lewis at 3B with Castro behind all 3 as needed…….Brooks back to St Paul……..Correa to at least the #7 hole until something changes. Ober battled - not a great line-up so not overly excited. Duran pitching “backwards”, starting hitters with breaking stuff and then having to throw fastballs to get back in the count is not the way to go…….establish 100 mph in the zone and then work off that.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Wins & Losses are what tells the story, IMO……if Team was winning, people would be at The Park! Public opinion would be a complete 180.
  20. JD-TWINS
    I agree - his book hasn’t been written! He needs a more significant change of speed IMO as his “change-up” sits at 90-92mph. To me that’s an off-season/spring training grip adjustment or NEW grip. Either the sinker or cutter would be the typical variation off of the fastball arm motion. He does need a 4th pitch for some additional deception for the hitter’s heads, if nothing else.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I gotta mildly disagree on whether one can alter or develop a pitch at AAA level that will be a confident change at the MLB level. Guys can find pitches - new grip - arm slot, throwing on the side in the Bullpen w/o a batter present. Sure, at some point you have to take it to the mound in competition. Guys don’t typically experiment on the mound at MLB level - seeing if their new grip will get guys out.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. Not perfect but who is? I live in Cincinnati & I saw this morning that the Reds have scored 3 or less runs in 11 of 23 games. Nobody here is calling for Terry Francona to be relieved of his duties. Starting from first full season at 21, Baldelli hit .290 over his first 3 seasons with an average WAR of 3.0. You’re right, he knows the game & is not inept. A Managerial change wouldn’t be terrible but until the better players are healthy and they also start performing, the Team’s not winning.
  23. JD-TWINS
    The Team is for sale - GM getting fired in this potential transition period just isn’t happening. I can finally see that if things do not change into the right direction by May 9-10……..that’s enough time for Baldelli to make whatever adjustments he can try…….. that would be nearly 3 months of baseball malaise since last August 17. Tough to expect Team results with Correa doing ZERO & Wallner getting put on IL & Larnach doing ZERO & Lopez getting put in IL & Lewis on IL and perpetually doing ZERO. Alcala & Jax with double digit ERA’s. I guess the sum of those issues warrants the firing of the Manager……??
  24. JD-TWINS
    Blame per your comment is 80% FO & 20% Rocco…….. Miranda - Correa - Larnach nearly zero results ……. Lewis hurt - Wallner hurt ……… Gasper - Kiersey - Vazquez nearly zero results (literally) ……… Jax & Alcala with ERA’s over 11.00 ………… Ryan, 3 HR’s in one outing …. Ober 8 runs in 1 2/3 innings…… Paddock’s first 2 starts. To me, the guys that are getting paid to actually PLAY the games and affect results have at least 70% of the blame, at a minimum.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Sonny Gray left for money - period. Removing Ryan in a playoff game has nothing to do with bullpen burnout. The Team’s issue from August 17 - today is the absolute ineffectiveness of their hitters. Some have been injured and some just have disappeared (Miranda - Correa - Larnach) and no juggling of the Rotation nor Pen is going to get around this fact. Sonny Gray beat the Blue Jays in playoffs of ‘23 with a fantastic pick off at 2B to get him out of a 5th inning jam………next inning he was replaced and he got a win with 4 bullpen innings. Next start for Gray, he was brutal v. Houston. Him going wasn’t that big of a deal. Ryan getting hurt around August 10 last year was a big deal …….. SWR - Festa - Matthews as 60% of the Rotation was a problem down the stretch as all were fatigued relative to their pro careers, and a big reason for Pen issues (that had any effect) the last 6 weeks of season. Twins have used starters longer in ‘23 & ‘24 than MLB average use of starters. Recall that last year the guy that lead the Team in HR & RBI for the season was a leading candidate (with Vazquez & Margot) to be DFA’d in April ………. Gold Glove winner, Carlos Santana. My point is, things can change without some mastery of strategy in every possible situation that can later be scrutinized.
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