JD-TWINS

AGREED. Can’t believe how many people in these forums think if our starters pitched 2/3 of an inning more per game we’d still be in the playoffs. Gray, Mahle, Archer, Bundy all have had arm problems plus other issues with their bodies. Period. Ryan was a rookie…..no rookie throws excessive innings, at least not since the 90’s. There are maybe 12 guys in MLB that could be considered Aces…..Houston has 2…….3 or 4 are hurt and not actively pitching much in ‘22. We just need stable guys that can throw 4-7 innings and have us within a run or ahead when they leave. Expecting Rodon (injury risk) to be Bob Gibson for 3-5 years is fantasy. I’m all for adding “front line starter” but there are no Verlander’s (Aces) floating around without the attention of at least 20 other teams!!! As an aside, there is no combination of prospects that are too costly for Shohei Ohtani…….”front end starter” with 2.66 ERA AND he hit 34 dingers and hit .276. He’s 2 really good players in one. Spending prospects to get “2 highly effective contributors” is a wonderful deal if any organization can pull it off!! ……….he’s better offensively than Carlos Correa AND he had a 2.66 ERA!!! $44 million per year for 5 years is a deal!…..maybe 7 years?

60-70 innings in high leverage situations vs. 28 starts & 150 innings in games where you may not score much or get the lead at any time. Less risk for health problems and best value to help WIN GAMES. If that’s not obvious logically, not sure what to say.

Making room for the other left handed hitters, under team control makes some sense. The salary trade to one of them nets over $8 million. With respect, there’s nobody trading a quality SP for Keppler or almost any combination of guys. I love his defense. Ability to play CF if needed with Byron’s issues. I think he hits .260 w/o the shift. He needs more consistent pop to stay on the roster though. He’s a “decent” proven piece in a trade along with one or two young guys.

I like it!! Perfect fit but not sure about the pieces being moved? I think if we target a guy like this we need to sign him up for an additional 3 years immediately to get the trade value right. Also, I think we need to part with one of our left-handed batting outfielders to sweeten the pot for trade partner. Keep Gordon. One of those other 4 guys needs to be offered. Kepler probably doesn’t move the needle. Why: Woodruff for 5 years or Simeon Woods-Richardson’s potential??? Why: They do it to get a reasonable arm into their fold AND high end left handed bat with CONTROL of both for years.

FO’s Gotta be willing to spend right where you suggested……$8million for a real bullpen arm for 2 years………..$22 - $25 million for 4 years for a starter with good stuff and some recent success. With 2021 arm problems for Duran & 2022 success in key bullpen roll……2023 closer roll is where I see his most value. Dropping Maeda into the bullpen & signing 1 new back end talent really gets us to a solid pen! Maybe Paddock - probably Mahle along with Gray, Ober, Ryan, 1 guy from farm system earns a spot, and a front end acquisition gives us some options and depth on the staff.

Pitching health is a continual risk!!! That said, Duran was maybe our most effective player on the roster. If it ain’t broke……..Duran needs to anchor the pen & we need to be happy with that as a decision. There are a whole bunch of guys out there that can help improve our Rotation……no need for experiments that add health risk & mess up our bullpen effectiveness.

Agreed, moving Keppler or Polanco might help spending if Correa stays. Assuming Correa leaves, no immediate trades needed & we go get a “top end guy” & a solid reliever. As a low risk option, how about converting Plesac from Cleveland into a reliever for $6 million. He’s a competitor that has 2 plus pitches & wouldn’t mind throwing 55-60 times per year. I think his attitude has gotten him released from Guardians? Need better “stuff” in our bullpen - obvious when watching good playoff teams!

Correa stays for $35 million for 8 years. Need Closer to compliment Duran for $9 million. Arraez to $5.5million might be rich? Urshella arbitration eligible to $10.5 million gotta move him to afford Correa and Closer upgrade. Putting Maeda into the bullpen gets the most out of him & his $9 million. He’s a good high leverage guy in later innings if needed and a potential bridge guy a couple times per week from starter to pen. Dodgers used him in spots for years. Kepler is forced to earn his daily playing time in front of back up guys. He is there for stability in Center if needed along with Gordon. Gordon fills at 2nd as well. Celestino doesn’t fit our needs if roster is just a little more healthy! Right handed batting outfielder is a maybe need? Once Lewis is back, if they have Correa, it might be Lewis adding OF depth as well as helping at 3rd & 2nd! If we can get Correa back and Closer type I’m suggesting and we’re reasonably healthy, this team is deep & solid!!! Buxton - Correa connection is a special dynamic in the line-up. Really stirs confidence with rest of the guys! C: Ryan Jeffers ($.700M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($5.5M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Miranda ($.700M) SS: C. Correa ($35.00M) LF: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) Utility: Royce Lewis ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($.700M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Lou Varland ($.700M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Lefty Moran ($.700M) RP: Unidentified Closer ($8.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) Payroll is 11.21% under budget

Money spent on Catcher offense, assuming Correa leaves., #1 starter & Closer to compliment Duran. This is $40,000,000 of over baseline $. Arraez to $5.5million might be rich? Urshella arbitration eligible to $10.5 million. Putting Maeda into the bullpen gets the most out of him & his $9million. He’s a good high leverage guy later innings if needed and a potential bridge guy a couple times per week from starter to pen. Dodgers used him in spots for years. Kepler is forced to earn his daily playing time in front of back up guys. He is there for stability in Center if needed along with Gordon. Celestino doesn’t fit our needs if roster is just a little more healthy! Right handed batting outfielder is a maybe need? Once Lewis is back, if they have a SS, it might be Lewis adding OF depth? If we can get the 3 guys I’m suggesting and we’re reasonably healthy, this team is deep & solid!!! C: Wilson Contreras ($14.0M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($5.5M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($10.5M) SS: Farm guy/Royce Lewis ($0.700M) LF: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($.700M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Unidentified #1 starter ($18.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Lefty Moran ($.700M) RP: Unidentified Closer ($8.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) Payroll is 6.86% under budget

Celestinos is the organization’s 6th or 7th outfielder & we only carry 5 on the Big Club. Kepler or Gordon will play center when Buxton DH’s or sits. Larnach - Kiriloff are definitely better options than Celestino. If we have a SS when Lewis is ready he’ll be the next right handed hitting outfielder. Correa leaves & we spend $22 million on NEEDED front end starter and another $10 - $13 million on a real CLOSER (not Lopez!) to help keep Duran fresh and eliminate (within reason) dropping games in inning 8 & 9. Both pitching solutions are easier said than done but the $ should be available! Contreraz at Catcher would be a noticeable upgrade offensively and worth a look!

Not sure why this wouldn’t work - Urshella at 3B 80% of time……Miranda 20%…….Miranda DH 30% of the time & 1B 30%……..Arraez 20% at 2B & 1B 50% & DH 25%………Kiriloff DH 20% & 1B 20% & 40% LF. Arraez needs days off (DH) for his legs. Same with Polanco, so Arraez plays some 2nd along with Gordon. Arraez was hurting in 2nd half and had hit .360 in first half so his average being down when DH in 2nd half at bats has a little more behind the reasoning than just not hitting at DH. Polanco plays 2B 7 of 10 games and DH’s 1 or 2 times every 10 games. Buxton will need to DH at times as well! Right handed hitting outfielder - maybe R. Lewis? That along with pitching is our need! Kepler, Walner, Larnach, Gordon, & Kiriloff have the corner OF & CF covered when facing RH pitching………need a right handed bat!!!

Problem is he’s had 2 ACL injuries and expecting him to hold up at SS for any length of time is blue sky…….may happen, but not much certainty there. If they can sign a SS they’ll fit Lewis in at 2nd, 3rd or OF going forward. Polanco may be washed? Only makes sense to pay Urshella one more year. Need a right handed batting outfielder……Lewis fits all 3. Sure, try him at short but sign one if can make a solid deal.

Can’t win with Top Players injured: Ober, Paddock, Varland, Mahle, Gray, Ryan with Maeda & Winder as Long Relievers……Jax, Lopez, Thielbar, Moran, & Duran………assume Correa leaves………we displace one of our starters with a free agent front end guy at $20 million & get some solid depth in bullpen for $10 million and displace a reliever. With a couple more potential arms from our system we should be able to put together a very reasonable staff opening day. Buxton plays 115 games, Arraez moves to 1st everyday, Lewis comes back by July 4 and bats .260 for balance of the year. Kiriloff or Larnach are healthy…..Miranda DH or 3rd & Urshella against lefties. Offense could use a right handed bat. All seems realistic with some breaks with player health. We’re top 4 - 6 teams in AL in 2023!!

Arraez has now played in parts or most of 4 seasons and he’s a .314 career hitter. Won title this year at .316…….my point is there’s more of the same to come. I don’t understand how batting average is not a very important stat anymore in baseball? If a batter gets a hit 32 out of 100 at bats vs. 24 out of 100 at bats the Team’s scoring opportunities have to be significantly higher!!! Where do we play him in 2023? Kiriloff - Miranda - Urshella - Arraez - Polanco. So he leads the league in average & has to play 2-3 defensive positions & DH. Plays when banged up! Need him in line-up 150 games per year going forward!! I like Polanco’s potential POP & his defense at 2nd & his demeanor & he’s a switch hitter! May need to move him to split 2nd base between Arraez & Gordon. Need youthful energy & offense throughout the line-up!

Great plan!! ……I was going to suggest, if Correa leaves, we trade Urshella straight up for Red’s SS Farmer. Similar bat & we will need a SS. I like committing to Urshella though and trying to stretch to June/July with someone else at short until Lewis is strong enough to play every day. Urshella is consistency we need - not flashy - but solid.

I agree that Baldelli is somewhat robotic and that the organization smoothing over things continually drains all involved of emotion needed for success!! The move with Ryan after 7 innings was the right move for the TEAM……you needed him ready for his next start in a tight race…….he came back with 3 hits spread over 7 2/3 this weekend. That’s a success. Can’t complain about that! Play to WIN THE GAME not excite the fan base by seeing if Ryan can throw a no-hitter.

I like this outfield mix as well but don’t know if there’s room to roster Celistino? After this year, one would assume Buxton is back and manages to play 100 games in Center in 2023 with Gordon starting the other 62. Gordon’s earned another 40 starts in left & a dozen between 2nd & SS when needed. A “utility guy” that can play 5 positions, start 120 games and can run and hit .275 is a real find. Larnach can play left field…..Kiriloff can play LF & be our 3rd choice at 1B. In my opinion, watching Celistino never hit the ball to left field & watching him run the bases is all we need to see that proves the only way he’s playing is because Gordon’s forced to play 2nd & Keppler can’t go to CF due to his injury. Celistino is our 4th option in CF. As much as I love his defense, Cave is the 7th-8th outfielder, behind Celistino & Garlick if all guys are healthy. Need to trade, maybe not until July, Cave, along with either Larnach or Kiriloff or Keppler. Way too many left handed batters with Gordon already in the mix. I see Arraez & Miranda filling the 1st base DH rolls for a number of years to come. No room there for Kiriloff.

14-7 (3 of 5 in Cleveland) rest of the year gets us into a possible Tie (85 wins) for the division. We are starting back-ups at 5 positions (whole outfield, 2B, & catcher)…….gonna be tough but have a shot!! Arraez has to play (leg problem) - can’t drop another key guy! More interesting & fun than 2021! I just checked Guardian’s schedule and unless there’s a mistake, they finish with 6 straight home games vs. the Royals. Tough to overcome that.

The overview of more frustration this year is accurate. MUCH rather be in contention & frustrated with injuries - move on from problems, (J. Smith - T. Duffey - E. Pagan eventually) - still have a 10% chance if we go 14 - 7 down the stretch…….than to be out of it by May 15! To not be competitive over a 6 month season is torture if you’re a fan in my opinion……..I live in Cincinnati & see it & hear about it daily.

Agreed on the pitching!! (Varland another #4-#5 in his rookie year of ‘23) I think getting a #2 is $ realistic. Need another stud with Duran in bullpen as well!

Today a win is needed & then 3 of 5 in Cleveland as well. Both doable. That gets us to 1.5 back. A chance, but the reality has dropped to maybe 33%?

Can’t believe that after the Athletic article 3-4 weeks ago statistically/factually proving he’s been the worst reliever in baseball over the past 3 years that Pagan hasn’t been DFA’d to make room for anyone else!!! 97mph occasionally - nice spin rate - MIDDLE/MIDDLE about every 6 or 7 pitches.

Remember, Joe started the analytics drive in Tampa and that seems to be a big part of the fan base disappointment with Baldelli. Rocco can’t bat for Keppler & Polanco nor can he pitch for Duffey, Pagan, nor J. Smith……..nor our recently acquired closer, Mr Lopez….. Neither can Joe Madden.

1) Pagan - J. Smith - Duffey……minimum of a dozen games lost & that’s allowing for the 5 - 10 additional losses/blown holds or saves that are going to happen to every club (set of relievers). I agree, it’s not Pagan’s fault we haven’t DFA’d him some weeks ago! 2) Buxton hitting 28 homers and not much else - the guy should hit 35 doubles per year playing 110 games! How can you have more extra base hits than singles??? I guess you focus on launch angle and are satisfied batting .225. 3) Polanco & Keppler batting 40 points and 30 points under their career averages respectively………,,Buxton - Polanco - Keppler are the 3 guys we have “locked up” & they are collectively killing us with missed games and a complete lack of run production!!! Can complain about analytics & Baldelli’s handling of starting pitching but with the lack of performance from the 6 guys above we can’t compete!

The FO was on the broadcast during the game saying Varland would be sent down - 10 day minimum. Back up for another doubleheader start in September and likelihood he will remain if successful. Open discussion on national broadcast - planned. These guys in FO might not be perfect but they aren’t idiots!