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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure most/many here get the 75%/25% split in RH v. LH pitching. There’s just uninformed guess work in the thinking that if Larnach saw more in game left handed pitching, he’d be much closer to serviceable in that situation. There’s “baseball people” around Larnach - Wallner, etc. that see the struggles v. LH pitching 8 months of the year - year after year, behind the scenes. That said, letting a 29 year old guy go, that has a career OPS near .770 v. RH pitching, (75% of our foes) because $4.5M is too much to spend is nuts. At least sign him until Rodriguez shows he can be healthy for more than 45 days in a row - Roden shows he can hit consistently - Jenkins appears to be comfortable enough to move to MLB - Wallner shows he can hit .230 and actually collect some RBI. Can always trade a productive hitter mid-season if youth has shown out at AAA. To me, Larnach is insurance to being at a “competitive level” offensively until it’s deemed others around him aren’t keeping Team competitive….. then move whoever makes sense to move. Somebody mentioned yesterday Roden has hit .320 at AAA ……… Kiersey hit .300 in ‘24 at AAA and is 20 for 184 over his AB’s at the MLB level. My point with Larnach is he’s “the devil we know!”
  2. JD-TWINS
    You’re right, it’s not that hard…… HE SUCKS! He hit .177 with RISP …….. no “coaching demons” in that. He has no ability to dial back to make contact. He strikes out 34% of his AB’s. His bat to ball skills are often non- existent. His OBP of .311 is a combination of his 68 hits & 46 walks. One can’t strike out (114) the same amount of times one gets a hit or he walks. That has a little bit to do with his inability to drive in runs. 392 plate appearances and his walks plus strikeouts = 160 or 41% of the time he doesn’t put the ball in play……..that makes it difficult, when guys are on base, to produce runs. 392 plate appearances and he had 18 RBI other than driving himself in with a HR. Nearly statistically impossible to do!
  3. JD-TWINS
    I don’t dislike the “guy” but relative to critiquing his hitting……I guess I’d be considered one of the hounds you refer to above. I just don’t understand how one can have 22 HR with 40 total RBI over nearly 400 AB’s??? Getting “his stats” are what every guy is trying to do - I get that, but Wallner (getting back to his stats) walking as much as he does along with his pretty good frequency and total of HR’s, his Production as contribution to Wins is abysmal! I guess that after ‘25, I have lost any confidence in the guy. In ‘24, he started so slow that he was sent down for 10 weeks. He came back and had a pretty decent last 10 weeks. One can’t be hurt or performing poorly for big chunks of time, season after season, AND be involved in a Teams plans for the future!
  4. JD-TWINS
    I just think he has too many holes to be exploited with his current/past approach. He’s not shown much in the RBI dept. (.177 with RISP in ‘25). IMO, if he wasn’t a native Minnesotan, TD would be carving him up continuously!! .245 - 30 HR - 70 RBI would be a remarkable season for Wallner. assuming he gets to 550 PA’s this season. He needs to figure out how to stay healthy enough and productive enough to warrant consistent time over a whole season! ’23 - 2.2 WAR ……’24 - 2.2 WAR ……’25 - 0.3 WAR He played in 30 more games in ‘25 than in the other two years. BIG drop in production AND in the potential for any shine going forward!
  5. JD-TWINS
    An awfully lot of volatility with Ron from a physical health perspective………and he’s 74. Nobody’s hiring him for the Top Spot anymore. I think that Flaherty from Cubs with Twin’s organization mating him with Washington as bench coach would be a great mix, on paper anyway. I wish Ron the best!
  6. JD-TWINS
    I like the Flaherty angle. Any extension of Craig Counsel makes sense to me. He’s a Pro’s pro after 8 years as a utility guy & similar length of time as coach. Seems like a guy others would want to coach for in a building situation. (None of us know who might be best!) Won’t matter w/o Wallner & Lewis playing much better, along with some FA help in infield and Pen. Hiring the Yankees coach takes Team back into the middle of the ”Hit for Power” offensive strategy - that makes sense if coaching Soto - Stanton - Judge! Twins don’t have those guys, Anyone that was bitching about hitting approach for Twins in ‘24 should volunteer to eat crow! Popkins took over a relatively ineffective group in Toronto and they are an offensive juggernaut!! 4 guys at or above .300 & 7 guys over .265. Strikeouts are down as well. Twins, with existing group, need to promote contact and barrel contact without locking in on launch angle. Hit the ball & hit it hard whenever possible……..baseball 101. Blue Jay’s ‘2025 mantra at the plate!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Maybe the 6th time in last 5 weeks I’ve stated this, the $425M infusion that garnered 20+% of the ownership stake wasn’t a charitable donation. Cannot make that move w/o an expectation that the Team will be made marketable by acquiring some talent. Can’t invest those $$ and know the fan base hates the current product, as is, without some positive changes on the near-term horizon. I don’t expect Big Name signings but 4-5 FA’s can blend with the current core and make a run at the Division Title. C - 1B - PEN (2-3). Rotation is in decent shape, talent wise. There are 2-3 guys back in the PEN ……. another 2-3 to consider ……… 2-3 young arms that can be blended into Relief role …… 2-3 FA’s and the PEN is more than adequate. To me, if $$ are the chief issue, you don’t trade the $5.8M guy and keep the $22M guy when both have ”like effectiveness”. Lopez on the trade block would have Team’s salivating at a known cost for a couple more years. I don’t trade either - spend up to $130M and win the Division.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Would you like to compare 2024 stats between Bo & Luis? In 2025 for Twins: Lewis had 52 RBI and hit .237 with 89 hits & 376 AB’s Clemens had 52 RBI and hit .216 with 74 hits & 342 AB’s Arraez had 181 hits ……… v. their 163 hits. RBI are created by a player batting in runs by getting HITS and putting the ball in play if making an out. Arraez struck out 21 times in ‘25 & lead the N.L. in hits.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Because he’s lead-off or batted 2nd for most of his career - if Bichette didn’t hit in the 4 spot for Toronto this year he wouldn’t have had 94 RBI. My arguement isn’t that Arraez “is Bo Bichette”, my arguement is that a “contact guy” can thrive when coming to the plate with base runners……. i.e. Bichette in ‘25! Bichette: .294/.337/.469 for his 7 year career Arraez: .317/.363/.413 for his 7 year career If Arraez hits 5th every day for the Twins for 145-150 games, his ability to reach 80 RBI is almost guaranteed…….if he hits 5th in Toronto he might have a 100 RBI………Matt Wallner is proof that HR’s don’t directly lead to RBI totals being high. My other point is “productivity per $$ spent” …….. Arraez at $11-$12M is a great value for a guy that’s played 144 - 147 - 150 - 154 games over past 4 seasons……….again, Bichette is expecting $25M for 3-4 more years & he’s only a year younger.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I looked at Bo Bichette’s stats & in 2025 he has 628 PA’s over 139 games, with 63 XBH (18 HR’s) and hit .311 with a .357 OBP (.337 OBP career) along with 94 RBI………..in ‘24 he had 336 PA’s over 81 games, with 21 XBH (4 HR’s) and hit .225 with a OBP of .277. He plays a premium defensive spot at SS for the Jays - he’s assumed to be signed for $25M/yr for 7 years and he’s an oft injured 27 year old. Goldschmidt has retired from MLB. Luis Arraez in 2025 has 675 PA’s over 154 games, with 42 XBH (8 HR) and hit .292 with a .327 OBP (.363 OBP career) along with 61 RBI…………in ‘24 he had 672 PA’s over 150 games, with 39 XBH (4 HR’s) and hit .314 with a OBP of .346. He has averaged 149 games per year over last 4 seasons. If he hits 5th every day for MN he collects 180-195 hits and 80 plus RBI with 7 HR’s. First base is handled for 3 years at $11M/yr. His defense is adequate, not great and he’s 28………btw, he hit .265 v. LH pitching in ‘25 & .311 v. RH pitching …….. no big platoon need! For 48% of Bo Bichette’s salary, offensively he’s 90% of the output offensively. That’s if Bichette has a good year and stays healthy. Bichette wants 7 years and is 27 ……… Arraez would sign for 3-4 years and is 28. I don’t understand the hate for Luis here at TD? He’s not perfect - sure. He’s a hell of a lot of a better risk/signing than Rhys Hoskins!!!
  11. JD-TWINS
    As others have pointed out and my eye test would agree with, the fact that he looked pretty good at 3B from mid-summer forward AND he stole 11 of 12 times over last (roughly) 35 games. To me, the legs, and confidence to use them, is back. He needs to sort himself, with coaching input, at the plate.
  12. JD-TWINS
    I have more hope with Martin than Lewis. 😉 Seriously, the first round picks that Team is leaning on for ‘26 (expectations), obviously, Buxton……. but it may be Martin - Lewis - Lee in descending order …….. that’s a lot different than everyone thought at beginning of ‘24. Lee too, is nearly unplayable for big stretches of time………as you state, at least Lewis has seemed to recapture a bunch of his athleticism. Not sure how much there ever was for Lee?
  13. JD-TWINS
    Sign a LH guy at 1B is the sentiment from you & I agree! ……..Clemens is not the answer with regular playing time. Clemens may be the 13th guy, until youth is ready, because he can play 4 positions. Maybe? Per you, won’t be able to compete for Naylor. O’Hearn at around $8-$10M will be tough for organization to pull the trigger on, but it’s needed. Probably other clubs in the mix for him as well. Wallner - Larnach - Clemens - etc. as a 1B solution are all bad ideas if trying to actually be competitive. Don’t see the OF guys magically becoming competent at 1B ……. Wallner has plenty of issues just focusing on struggles at the plate. 2 position signings needed (C & 1B) with 2 reliever signings needed. Can get these done for $35M - right? Takes them to $130M total (less than 2022 spend) with current roster guys. LH free agent at 1B with Jeffers being the platoon RH guy at 1B (40 games). Hopefully, LH guy at C from free agency and Jeffers catches 30 games & is DH 70 games, with Parades (?) on the Roster for 50 games.
  14. JD-TWINS
    So, Popkins got fired as hitting coach after ‘24. Everyone here bitching about approach and poor results from players for big chunks of time due to “poor coaching.” Immediately, Toronto hired Popkins. Blue Jays, with essentially same core that didn’t perform to expectations in ‘24, took off! 4 guys at .300 or better - 7 guys at .265 or better. How does this happen?…….Popkins is clueless, it couldn't have anything to do with his input - right? Players play & execute, on their own, in the box. Coaches tweak - suggest - encourage - build good habits - instill confidence………. players play!! Blaming coaches for poor play from players is nuts, IMO. Baldelli hit .290 over first 3 full seasons in MLB - he knows something about approach both mentally and physically. Earl Weaver had a .583 winning % in Baltimore. Don’t see Earl in or around the cage coaching up Frank or Brooks or Boog. He managed good pitchers and good position players and THAT is what generates W’s!
  15. JD-TWINS
    League average or slightly better (L/R) hitter that can play all 3 OF spots if necessary and provides depth as needed at 2B & 3B certainly has value. I’d at least make him an offer for 1 year at $5M or 2 years at $8.5M……..don’t know how that snakes out with his “perceived value” via his metrics? Gut feel, not a bad signing, not exciting. I’d much rather have Castro at the plate & live with his OF defense (utilize his IF flexibility) than Roden!!! I have zero faith in Roden at the plate and very, very little faith in Outman. Keaschall “ready to take a step forward” ……can you take a bigger step than starting essentially every day one is healthy enough to play?
  16. JD-TWINS
    I like trying to sign Vazquez (or Vazquez like) or another FA to catch 80 games. Paredes catches 60 games. Jeffers stays competent and adds roster flexibility while catching 22 games (3-4 per month). He can DH after he catches to keep his bat in the line-up as MGR chooses. He’s the principal at 1B, playing 100 games there. I think with lighter defensive load and a bit of tweaking his HR power returns. Gotta be realistic on the HR comments, he “averaged” 17 per year previous two seasons and fell back to 8 or 9. He was out with injury a bit which, I assume, reduced his AB’s in ‘25? Didn’t fall off a cliff! I like his size/strength & general durability! His strikeout % being under 20% is a good sign as well. 10% walks - good rate! Gotta sign him & IF there’s a 3 year deal to be made, go for it from TWINS perspective.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Well, if you’re named as one of only two Captains in Team History then Twins HOF seems to be nearly a given - right? I don’t know that Byron wants to be thought of as a guy on any other level than the rest of his teammates? He leads by example and does the right thing nearly always. I think he’s good with that. Guy above said, he imagined Team was begging him to wave his no trade clause ….. why would they do that? He costs $15M plus another 10% in bonuses for hitting some productivity goals. He played to about a $35M (guessing) level in ‘25. He’s 31 and as healthy as he’s ever been. Trading him for hopeful youth is nuts at his salary level. I don’t think youth respects a “title” like Captain nearly as much as they respect the Captainlike behavior!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Judge hit .179 in 84 AB’s at age 24 in MLB …….. Winokur has plenty of time. If he HITS he can play wherever there’s a fit. Until he shows he can HIT, his defensive position is a moot point. 3B - OF - 1B possibly?
  19. JD-TWINS
    His offense is his upside with the Club. He’s fine at the plate - always up & down, but that just seems to be common across most rosters. His strike out & walk rates are pretty good! I keep promoting the idea that could get him 550 AB’s. Play him behind the plate 18 starts per year - 3 times per month……. just enough to stay sharp & viable. He’s the 3rd Catcher that provides depth & flexibility. He gets 100 plus starts at 1B and 18 at Catcher and 18 as DH. They sign a FA Catcher and have Pereda catch 50-60 games.
  20. JD-TWINS
    They signed a Free Agent Catcher and paid him $10M/year (3 years) so both he & Jeffers could stay fresh and to minimize injury & performance drops due to fatigue. The FA, Vazquez, failed to HIT to his career norms but he was good/better behind the plate. The Manager manages the players/resources he has in front of him……his limited Catching duties allowed Jeffers to be in the line-up as DH as well.
  21. JD-TWINS
    If you can figure out how to get Diaz - fabulous!! I live in Cincinnati and have watched Andujar carve up LH pitching for the last 2 months - excellent! But that’s it …….DH or PH & 25% or so of pitchers are LH. Kody Clemens can’t be a 70-75% platoon guy at 1B, not on a competitive Club. I guess all this is moot if there’s no idea what the spending plan might be. I don’t get the Arraez hate though? If it’s just the money - I get it. If it’s hitting .262 v. LH pitching and “that sucks” I don’t get it…….his OBP was .327 and he hit .294, so he walks 3 times out of 100……..Wallner has OBP of .311 and he hit .205, so he walks 10.5 times out of 100. Arraez struck out 21 times in 675 PA’s. Wallner struck out 114 times in 392 PA’s. Not being able to advance runners nor drive RISP in is a hole in Twin’s line-up. Arraez had 61 RBI (64 over 162) and 42XBH in ‘25……….Wallner had 40 RBI (62 over 162) and 41 XBH in ‘25. Arraez OBP from ‘22 - ‘25 is .375 - .393 - .346 - .327………….Byron Buxton’s OBP from ‘22 - ‘25 is .306 - .294 - .335 - .327 ………things fluctuate year to year. Arraez, however, plays 93% of games.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. Gotta have ability for sure but Killebrew played LF at one point before 3B & 1B……..it’s not crazy. Surely, it’s not a good move for everyone & I assume someone in Twin’s organization has had the thought that 6’3” & 6’5” slow outfielders should be considered for a move to 1B, haven’t done it for baseball reasons……..lack of capabilities maybe?!?!?!!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Matt Wallner hit .202 in ‘25 Matt Wallner hit .177 with RISP in ‘25 Matt Wallner hit .195 v. RHP in ‘25 Why would anyone think that Wallner learning how to play 1B is of any benefit to the Club? He hit 22 HR’s and Kody Clemens hit 19 HR’s. Kody can play 1B - 2B - RF - LF. I’m not trying to promote starting nor even keeping Clemens - just pointing out how truly disappointing Wallner’s year was. If he was from Stevens Point instead of Forrest Lake he would be run out of Target Field. ……… Potential, sure! Eddie Julien also has potential …… as well as a dozen other guys that have washed out in past 2-3 years. I thought he’d be a Top 3 hitter on the Club in ‘25………was woefully mistaken! btw - Luis Arraez hit .294 in 2025 ……. .287 with RISP ……. .304 v. RHP ……… ..262 v. LHP …… Lead N.L. in hits last 2 seasons and had 203 hits in 2023. He played in 154 games in ‘25…… 150 games in ‘24. IMO, sign him for 3 years at $40M total ……. & bat him 5th in line-up every day.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Seriously, your argument is based on a half dozen Post Season games? How did Wallner do in ‘23 post season? Oh, he was 0-8 with 5 strikeouts - shocking! The fact that Wallner sucks AND can’t stay healthy speaks volumes. My point is, let Arraez hit in the middle of the line-up v. the Top 2 spots when fewer guys are on base. He would have 80 RBI w/o issue if batting 5th…….also, these would be “real & not projected IF he played”. Matt Wallner was out at least twice this past season, maybe 3 times. Arraez played in 154 games - that’s a knock on Arraez? In ‘24 Wallner was in the minors for 8-10 weeks because he was so bad after his first 19 games they had to send him down. Arraez had 200 hits ……..obviously, Matt’s a better guy to have in the line-up.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Logic - refreshing!! I can’t believe you don’t think that “……they can just practice some grounders this winter & next spring, and then be good to go…..” Yes, there are “baseball people” evaluating guys for years and they are not idiots, regardless of what those here at TD seem to think. ……..Moving Wallner or Larnach to 1B to “maybe” be on a similar level as Eduard Julien, is not the answer.
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