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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Usage limited, IMO, due to 2 issues. Coming off arm issues……,has problem with walks. He was in a game 10 days or so ago where he walked 3 guys in one inning. He fortunately worked around it but I think there’s a hesitancy due to that issue. He may have needed “some rest” in the view of the organization? Not sure if he has options left - if not, could be just giving him a break on the Big Club’s roster? He has performed, no doubt!!
  2. JD-TWINS
    What’s the transition from MiLB to the Show in numbers? What does “near .800 OPS” get you in the Show? Nobody knows, that’s the issue. Replacing Vazquez with Camargo may net us an inexperienced receiver along with a .620 OPS & to me, that’s not an upgrade. Vazquez missed a play at home a couple games ago and it may be more tolerable if he was hitting - granted. He catches every other day. Bringing up a kid into a situation where he cannot make any mistakes behind the plate, with the staff having a big comfort level with Vazquez is a big ask! I can’t see upsetting things to get another 5-6 hits over 100 AB’s - essentially what Camargo’s upside may be, IMO.
  3. JD-TWINS
    A log jam of options is obviously better than the flip side, agreed! I echo a lot of your thoughts……can’t move off Margot as he’s actually been playing above expectations for more than a month, regardless of the tone here at TD occasionally. Today, IMO, the next move is Lee up and Martin gets displaced (though undeserving). No hurry for this as things are going pretty well. They have certainly given Farmer opportunities …….can’t be easy to get right when playing sporadically but that’s pro sports! If he’s still at .190-.200 late July something serious needs to & probably happens then. I do think Lee gets a shot before Wallner since they essentially know what to expect on the high end from Wallner. It’s probably not a bad idea to get Lee up to play 2-3 weeks before releasing Farmer at some point. Starting Martin at 2B yesterday may signal they are going to respect his performance and keep him up - however, Farmer replaced him late for defense……..?
  4. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati……Montas started the season red hot …….not so impressive since. The Reds organization thinks they are a decent club that’s been snake bitten by injuries……couple guys that have maintained health are underperforming. National League has a real chance of a Wildcard getting in with 85 wins. Due to this, everyone “has a chance” and few will sell. They also have a bunch of guys that are up & coming or hurt - no NEED. for prospects. Montas is interesting. He may not be much different than Paddack though. The Reds only have him this year - somebody that can contribute, that they can control, may be enough……,they’d be dumping salary, which they like. Maybe for Okert? Maybe for Sands?….,these guys could help the Reds in ‘25.
  5. JD-TWINS
    WON 4 of last 5 games, while on the road, without any real offensive help from Lewis. Correa didn’t play today. Couple days ago Larnach and Kepler sat. Jeffers is getting plenty of rest to be solid down the stretch. Starters are throwing into the 6th or better nearly every day. Byron Buxton is playing regularly! Byron Buxton is batting 7th in the line-up and taring it up!! Castro - Miranda - Santana have combined to help the team have arguably the longest line-up in baseball, along with Baltimore. Good stuff. Detroit - Houston - White Sox - Giants heading into the Break. Would be Sweet if Team could take 4 consecutive Series before some time off!!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    I’m not as concerned with the Pen as you seem to be……guys that are available, generally, aren’t that effective. A team might pick up a mercenary like Matt Moore? Through the balance of the Season, Topa probably has about a 10% probability to help out. Henriquez has about a 20% probability to help out. Thielbar becoming revitalized is about a 35% probability of becoming real. Funderburk & Okert & Sands & Staumont are somewhere around 50/50 of being effective. (I don’t see anybody we might actually trade for being any higher level than the guys mentioned above) Alcala - Jax - Duran are guys to be leaned upon! By August 15th, there will be a commitment to Varland to the Pen. He would join the high-end group. October…..Paddack moves to the Pen! If Sands or Topa are the 8th guy in the Pen in October……things are good. Paddack - Varland - Staumont - Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Duran ………Funderburk &/or Okert in October works for me…….Topa? Sands?
  7. JD-TWINS
    It was like watching a poorly coached 5th grade little league team……truly bizarre, hitter after hitter….could have gotten out of it with no runs with a couple basic plays ALSO could have given up 5 runs with the repeated chances given to Seattle. Literally, could have had 7 outs in the inning. I said out loud to myself that I’d never seen anything like this in 55 years of watching baseball……..10 seconds later Perkins said essentially the same thing on the broadcast.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Last two outings he’s given up a solo homer in 14 innings with 23 K’s. Worked out of a couple jams but was then dominant again…….not the 2 best line-ups in baseball but a nice step in right direction……ERA from 5.63 down to 4.88 over 2 starts. Down around 4.00 by end of August and things are going well!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    I don’t think Duran at 100.3 or whatever is a big problem. His breaking stuff being located better has been his issue along with throwing too much breaking stuff. 100.3 fastball - 96 splinker - 85 curve would all be down 3 MPH from his norm or typical high end self, but still awfully good!!! He can get plenty of guys out with his current velocity - just needs to not throw hanging stuff in the middle of the plate. I never see guys squaring up his fastball. Pablo seems to be in his own head at times ……ahead continually on Saturday night v. Seattle but constantly NOT throwing his fastball in the zone, but rather an inch or three off the plate. Get ahead and then after 3 fastballs just off the plate he’s in a 3-2 battle with most batters - no efficiency! Trying to be perfect and pitching away from contact at every turn - this rolls into way too many pitches thrown. He stabilized and got the last 10 guys in a row - but again, like in Oakland, not facing murderers row.
  10. JD-TWINS
    1.100 OPS over last 17 games!!!
  11. JD-TWINS
    As of Sunday a.m. the 30th…….Buxton hitting .364 over last 17 games with 5 HR and 1.100 OPS …….he’s been pretty good for 3 weeks….keep the truck rolling!
  12. JD-TWINS
    If Kepler was “hurt” or off the Team tomorrow I think Larnach/Margot play RF ………Martin/Castro play LF ……..Lee/Castro play 2B. Kiersey may be a September guy? Wallner, IMO, is behind Lee in any opportunity with big club…….Castro flex’s back to OF.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Just saw on MLB network…..Buxton hit .242 first 40 games with 3 HR……last 17 games hitting .364 with 5 HR. His success seems fairly recent & brief but he’s been rolling for 3 weeks. He is a BIG piece in the lengthening of the line-up. Don’t think any other team in baseball pencils in his talent in the #7 spot in the line-up every day. CC is playing as well as anyone in baseball.
  14. JD-TWINS
    The shock would be a concern to the clubhouse much more than to the fans. His performance goes up & down over months sometimes…..not very exciting to look forward to through the summer. A Qualifying Offer from the Twins is not coming since it’s a crazy move - he can and would accept the offer - $20M plus is nuts to offer a guy that will be 32 next year and has big swings in consistency on offense with a much higher % of downswings. He was the MVP of the club for the last 3 months of last year! Nothing now points to relying upon some comeback this year other than just “hope”. He’s capable but no idea how he’ll perform. Would anyone here make him the 2nd highest player on the team going forward in a budget crunch, or anytime? The assumption seems to be, “we’ll just make him a QO and get a draft pick”…..he can accept the offer though. K.C. & the Twins aren’t making any trades for Kepler. The Phillies would be a trade partner where the other side may have a real desire for Kepler. In the end the move makes sense for Twins offense, maybe? That maybe and the certain downfall in defense, along with clubhouse turmoil, will stop the FO from doing anything.
  15. JD-TWINS
    As I said, there’s no vendetta. I expected Julien to be one of the top 3-4 hitters on the Club going into the season. He looked great for a few weeks but then seemed to continually struggle. There’s no ignoring what he did in April, however, his good April numbers prop up the next 7 weeks and they were not good. If his OBP in April was .350 (guessing) his overall when he got sent down was .309……from late April on his OBP had to average. sub .300. Glad to hear he’s improving his numbers in St. Paul ……,I still think he’s our best option at 2B long term with Lee at 3B and Lewis in LF…..2025. I’d like to see some sustained high level in St. Paul & maybe he’s done enough to be back up in 3 weeks?
  16. JD-TWINS
    Luzardo is on 60 day IL, I believe, with back problems. …..Everyone in baseball wants Crochet. If the White Sox GM trades him he should be fired immediately. He’s 25 and on pace to throw 190 innings - his mid season WAR is 3.8……,he strikes out guys at 11.6/9 innings. Team control for 3 more years. 3.06 ERA. Not sure if you saw Camargo hit in the one game he got a chance in earlier this year in the Show? He looked like somebody Vazquez was working with to help him with his approach. Farmer may go in the next 30 days??? Buckle-up, Vazquez is here through ‘25!
  17. JD-TWINS
    If he’s league average, why does everyone on the site and in the organization think he sucked? Any conversation at TD since he went to St. Paul about him returning to the Show? His “average” could be reasonable but really good for 3.5 weeks and terrible for 7 weeks is not what Teams want from Eddie or any player. Bottom line is he’s in AAA with no clear path back to 2B or anywhere else, particularly with Castro playing everyday now and with Brooks Lee in the picture. This isn’t some personal vendetta …..he was underperforming big time, regardless of what WAA says on Baseball Reference.
  18. JD-TWINS
    In what context was Eddie “league average”? MY EXPECTATIONS???……..I didn’t send him to St. Paul ……….he was embarrassing himself at the plate - plain and simple. Obvious to everyone at TD other than you apparently. His BA was .207 & his OBP was .309………last year his OBP was .381. ……..he didn’t/doesn’t need to meet last year but can’t have him hit with zero power & hit 60 points less than last year while striking out at a 39% rate. THIRTY NINE PERCENT……..how does that line up anywhere near “league average”. …..FYI, league average for K% is at 22%.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Lewis’ throwing error when Alcala pitched not long ago(3-2 loss)……Lewis getting thrown out at 3B in 10th and erasing ability to score(loss)……Jax walking lead-off batter and then the Miranda error(loss)……..all in the last 8-9 games. It’s a problem!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Gotta win games and have a plan within the organization to make that happen……if somehow that goes sideways a Team can then look at players for “the future”. The Twins are trying to catch the Division leader and things are set-up, with various guy’s performance improvement over the month of June, plus. That improvement along with the addition of Lewis should allow the club to have a better 2nd half…..maybe 94 wins? It isn’t time now to see if someone has the stuff to rely upon going forward in ‘25. That said, I think Lee will be up within the next month………no rush.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I have no problem pointing at Griffin Jax (one of my favorites) as the reason for the loss…..,no way you can come into the game and walk anyone in their line-up other than possibly Rodriguez. He pitched like he has Dylan Florio’s stuff…..it was ridiculous and it set up all the upheaval! I get guys aren’t perfect but he has pitch after pitch to set things right and Miranda had a weird play with a guy crossing in front of him, etc. ……One Play…….sn unearned run but the situation should not have come about IMO.
  22. JD-TWINS
    In agreement with all the LVP comments until this one - I mentioned Farmer as THE LVP earlier, he deserves this, but saying Julien doesn’t deserve consideration is questionable since he has 47 more AB’s than Farmer even after being sent down for 3 weeks. The offensive expectations were higher for Eddie - he had 7 HR’s by April 27 and he never hit another one for essentially 6 weeks. ……If Farmer hits his career average over the next 47 AB’s he’ll surpass Julien’s BA…….certainly not a lofty goal.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Lewis surely adds huge value but an awfully small sample for an 81 game mention ….. probably more appropriate for 2nd half…fingers crossed. All other stuff seems pretty spot on. Farmer (& I’m a backer of his) seems to be squarely the biggest issue. I can’t say “one of the best defensive catchers in A.L.” and then say he’s the biggest disappointment. Vazquez is tough to watch at the plate, no question.
  24. JD-TWINS
    The changes in line-up would have been essentially moot, other than Jeffers pinch-hitting and having a little better opportunity. Kepler has to do better in the 10th, he’s spiraling again. I get your point that Martin could have run and played 2B …. moving Castro to 3B but weakening the defense (on paper) isn’t something typically done in extra innings. Gotta move the runner to 3B with first hitter, somehow. 3-4 extra inning games w/o scoring in the 10th……..guy starts on 2B…..frustrating! JAX walking the lead-off guy in the 8th, to me, not the Manager, cost the Team the ballgame!……..I’m sure I’m wrong but I didn’t recall Jax throwing a fastball in the zone until the 5th batter in the inning. Constantly trying to get guys to chase w/o starting pitches in a competitive spot (over the plate) & his stuff is better than that!
  25. JD-TWINS
    What oddsmaker on September 1st picked the D-Backs to be in the World Series in ‘23?? How about on October 3rd? Again, if you don’t get in the Playoffs you have no chance to get to the Series. Once in, odd, unintended things can happen and injuries also a have leveling effect. Seldom do the “favorites” win since more and more teams are involved.
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