JD-TWINS

Snell threw 11 2/3 innings prior to May 22. Since May 22 he’s thrown 36 innings. He’s started 10 total games in 2024. He makes $31M/year & has the flexibility to opt out of his current deal for ‘25 for a longer term deal…….nearly a certainty IF he’s healthy. If he’s not healthy a franchise is paying him $31M to rehab again. He struck out 15 in his last outing and has a .104 BA against over last 4 starts. HIGH end stuff!! This is his career, up & DOWN! Does it make sense to pursue this guy - really make sense - not just a cool move? I’d push Prospect chips in for Fairbanks from Tampa……some modified move for Tanner Scott as a rental……can’t see pursuing Snell as he might not throw another pitch after next week……waaay too much risk!

I agree that a move of some sort would help Fandom’s attitude and may help the Club if it’s the right move. I too do not see being able to add a starter better than SWR, let alone any of the Top 3 guys. Not enough guys fit this profile & the 3-4 guys that might will cost too much in prospect capital &/or $…..just the way it is. To me Fedde - Crochet - Skubal are guys that are not getting traded within the A.L. Central……,that makes the remaining list of choices pretty short. LH pitcher for Pen (T. Scott) OR just another high end contributor to the Pen (Fairbanks) would be huge!! That stuff said, Calvin Griffith was cheap - the Pohlad’s run the Team “like a business” and that can be tough to root for at times. Real tough! They have been a part of 2 Championship years and have been part of multiple playoff entries……I get the lack of success - that’s Pro Sports - many factors involved in the lack of success (stiff competition) …….Citing the Royals as a big spender relative to market size is definitely a one off this year!!! They spent a bunch around a potential star with Witt and they were/are trying to influence a local vote for a new stadium…..different animal to me. If they go out and get somebody else I’ll believe they have turned a corner. However, traditionally not a very big $ spending franchise!

If there was really a “problem” with Jeffer’s foot seems he would not get the nod as DH today……IMO. My view of the Manager is he likes continuity and consistency in his decisions and for clubhouse vibe. The every other day catching approach isn’t going to be altered unless there’s a necessity due to injury.

Both 4-6 over previous 10……they opened a window & we stumbled. Watching the daily results for the Guardians reminds me of Butch Cassidy & Sundance…., “who are those guys?”!!

To me, Team can piece 11 starts together with Festa - Varland - Matthews (?) - Paddack to get through the regular season. ……..somebody mentioned, what if Ryan or Lopez goes down? ….every team has that issue and there’s no insulating your roster with infinite experienced depth……just gotta deal with it & move forward. In agreement with you guys on the best move being (1) Tanner Scott or (2) being Fairbanks or guys like these two. Again, IMO, Scott makes the Pen elite! Sands or Staumont are the #7 & #8 guys…….pretty solid with this move…….Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Duran - Staumont - Sands - Topa (?) - Varland - Paddack - SCOTT. Sure seems this becomes a Team with as good of a chance as any with Correa back & this pitching addition. Gotta try to displace the Thielbar/Okert tandem.

The prospect exchange probably wouldn’t be more than for a lesser arm due to assumed lower competition……..I may be wrong but Snell is viewed a huge injury risk & at $31M, the balance of the season is costly for anyone. $31M is his option next year so he could walk for a longer deal elsewhere……essentially a high risk physically, expensive, & a rental. To me, he’s interesting but doesn’t seem to be worth the risk, if I’m running the team. He looks great from my couch though! Giants are 10 games over .500 at home & 3.5 games out of the Wildcard with 54 games to go……if he pitches & stays healthy, they have a shot at the Playoffs. They’ve been waiting for him and Ray all year and now they seem ready & able. Just don’t think Giants pursued him & signed him to get a dozen starts and then trade him for couple decent prospects.

Anybody see or hear of some problem with Larnach’s health? Seems pretty odd that he didn’t DH today with Jeffers getting the nod against a RH pitcher. I read somewhere tonight that Jeffers has a nuisance injury with a foot ……seems he would get/need the day off instead of a fairly hot Larnach - right? Wondering if maybe the pitcher today has bad reverse splits? ………forgot, didn’t see the first 5 innings - bullpen game. Margot did well regardless v. RH pitchers.

Over, after his first start v. Royals Ober’s got 19 other starts with a 3.17 ERA over those 19. Not sure if faithful here don’t want to jinx SWR’s success or if many are just blind to it or just non-believers? In 17 starts SWR has a 3.27 ERA. Routinely it is discussed that we have 3 decent starters ……… I’m wondering how long and how much success Richardson needs to have to be included in the “pretty good” group? To me, ideally, Team trades what’s needed to get Tanner Scott and the holes are pretty well plugged at that point. Twins can limp every 5th start for two months. Festa - Varland - Dobnack - Matthews - Paddack can cover 11 starts - right? Hope something positive happens in the Pen! I’d take Fairbanks from Tamp and make believe he’s left handed if that’s best we can do.

Great to know - thanks!!

You are right - I misunderstood what is above……I saw “options” and jumped to conclusion. TEAM has Options for 2 years to extend him past ‘25 …. quite a bit different than what I thought I read. My bad.

They didn’t look good in relief - for sure. Can’t win with 2 runs in the first inning though….,the offense blew it for 8 innings.

Agreed on Ober - since first start of the year v. Royals his ERA is 3.40 …….strikes guys out and doesn’t walk many. Very solid!

If they were to create a 40 man spot for him, the post says he still has 2 options left, so no risk of needing to DFA him. At least that’s my understanding…………seems to be worth serious consideration to help somebody skip a start in August/September. Finding a 40 man spot seems to be the challenge! He could be an add with Roster expansion in September to help with a couple spot starts?

Can’t trade Paddack this year but off season is reasonable. ……the other guys have no experience this year, yet, and the real issue is Paddack is currently hurt so his value is low relative to this coming off season. If we can scrape together 8-10 starts from Festa & maybe Varland & Matthews……..Team can keep Paddack fresh for Bullpen use back half of September & October.

No problem with the premise …”gotta give up serious value to get serious value” …..the details are not that important because they are subjective with every potential trade partner. Agreed in general! I live in Cincinnati - Steer wouldn’t displace Castro he’d have Margot’s spot on the roster with the Twins. Steer was voted Red’s MVP last year in his first full season. He’s got 64 RBI & 41 XBH including 15 HR’s …….he’d be a big plus for the Twins…….playing 4 different defensive positions and he has a 1.7 WAR with 60 games left & Margot has a -.80 WAR. pretty big difference 70% through the season. Bottom line - nobody knows who’s going to end up doing what, until it happens…. just trying to give the organization best shot by assembling low risk, high potential guys. SWR has started 17 games and has his WHIP down to 1.114……..ERA of 3.25…..he’s 23. Do not, IMO, think it makes any sense to include him in a package. I think the Team should jump in with both feet for Tanner Scott to tighten up the Pen………with him it could be elite over the last 2 months. Q: Who does the organization go after that is worth 3 of Twin’s top prospects……who is the worthy pitcher? Being willing to make a trade using high value pieces is one thing but there has to be a balancing, worthwhile piece coming back. IMO, Tigers aren’t trading to help the Twins - White Sox not trading to help Twins. Packaging Julien as an upside throw in with a valued prospect or Kirilloff as an upside throw in with a prospect are both reasonable moves. Again major subjectivity here……a high value prospect like Raya - Julien - Severino could come together to get someone of value - not sure they’ll offer enough to get anyone back that’s better than SWR - ……that’s your point I guess!

Tanner Scott is the absolute perfect fit! Could give a rip about Margot….tired of the whining about Margot for four months. Arozerena is hitting .214, with a .714 OPS stands all on its own. He’s not that good of player - period. I know Puk was made a starter - so what - he’s pitched 44 innings total and it’s the end of July. Obviously, he didn’t rack up too many innings in his starting role. His ERA is what it is……I could make up a list of 4-5 reasons Okert’s ERA isn’t representative of his best work either. PUK STARTED SOME GAMES THIS YEAR & WAS NOT VERY GOOD. Is that transparent enough?

At his age he’s the best defensive 1B in the A.L. ……he deserves real credit IMO……. Julien may never play in the Show for the TWINS again after this weekend. Him being a 1B is brought up here routinely - not happening. If the Team thought he had any potential of filling that roll he’d be getting “some” reps there in St Paul With Lee now & Keaschall ready by ‘26 to fit in somewhere …….Castro through ‘25 at least, I think Julien is part of a “change of scenery” trade in a package for some immediate pitching help in our Pen. Eddie struck out looking 3 straight times the other day - that’s gotta rival Margot’s pinch hit streak - struck out looking the next day as well. He’s got a problem and may benefit from some fresh surroundings? Miranda is the obvious everyday 1B going forward for the club unless his offense completely disappears. IF Julien has any chance at 2B via some miraculous comeback at the plate in ‘25, Lee to 3B and Lewis to 1B occasionally and LF mostly could be a good move as well.

Puk is a harder throwing Okert …….. both at 4.30 ERA this year - both ERA’s are higher than career average - both have poor WHIPs this year. To date Puk has a 0.00 WAR for this season and Okert has a -0.10 WAR …….need a bigger upgrade!

Margot and Arozerena have the same career Batting Average……….Arozarena is more athletic…….he’s hitting .214 with a .712 OPS……Seattle is offensively challenged, to say the least, Randy is hardly going to carry them into the playoffs, IMO. His postseason OPS is cited here but it’s meaningless on July 27th with 60 games to go. Margot is hitting .235 with a career average of .254 - Arozerena is hitting .214 with a career average of .256. To me, he doesn’t move the needle. Puk is a big strong guy (so is Funderburk) but in ‘24, he’s mediocre at best! He strikes out 1 guy per inning but his WHIP is 1.341….not good…..ERA of 4.30……IMO, he’s not our guy. Would love to see Team go after a “difference maker” not just somebody we’ve all heard of in year’s past. Tanner Scott or bust from my point of view………how about Okert (2 more years of control) back to Marlins to help fill the void going forward along with Severino & Keirsey…..,,does Headrick have any upside for a trading partner? Scott’s only with them another 2 months and they are in trade mode - just a matter of who offers best deal.

He’s on the roster to hit lefties and as long as that’s the case he’ll get sent up there………maybe the rationale last night was also to let him pinch hit when the game is not on the line, low pressure AB, to get him over the hump on this streak?

Didn’t get to see the game tonight ……. glad to see Larnach stay on the ball - Vazquez & Lee both rolling as well. Lopez 7 strong - nice W! Rocco sucked as usual due to his pinch hit choice of Margot……otherwise his roster choices seemed to work out.

I believe you - where do you find those numbers? My assumption, as I stated, the pitcher was getting turned around nearly always. The post shows his BA is less v. lefties when including his Pinch Hits so you are being validated there. If his OPS v. LH pitching is .789 & his average is .298, (inclusive of PH appearances) I think the Team, Baldelli, etc. needs to keep sending him up there and assume the % will start to balance. He was hitting .100 or so going into May overall, and 3 months later he’s at .235 with really good numbers v. LH pitching……….. with a .354 BA in non- PH situations. I’m not in love with the guy but he seems to be doing, in general, what they acquired him to do. He was a poor PH before he came to Minnesota - he hit LH pitching well. Doing same things. Obviously, Ofer as a PH is unbelievable - can’t cover that up!

So, I get the frustration & joining the club that likes to beat on Baldelli. Everyone has their opinion……no problem. However, to say they’d have the best record in baseball and be leading the Division if Baldelli was not the Manager is just fantasy talk that sounds way over the top, IMO. Team is on a 90 win pace as of this morning. Prior to season starting, assuming BETTER HEALTH than they have had over past 4 months, they were supposed to win 88-92 games, for whatever those predictions are worth? Team has a shot to win the Division and most would assume, at this point, they have an excellent chance of making the Playoffs. I guess expectations for Manager & Club can always be higher but, with the health or lack of from a few key guys, I think he’s doing a good job with what is there to work with. And then there’s Wallner’s start to season - Kirilloff’s collapse - Julien’s non-existence after month one - Varland contributing less than one would imagine……..coupled with the injuries.

……btw, both left handed hitters facing a skewed % of RH pitching then & would be now. I get Margot has been beyond terrible as a PH. The biggest reason he PH’s v. LH pitching is to get the other Team to make a move back to a RH pitcher to help the bulk of the line-up & to get a guy who has a rhythm going to get removed from the game. Substituting and getting an automatic out is not productive - no argument for that - but the logic to get the reliever out of the game and to force using more guys in opponent’s Pen is good logic. I do not have the data but would assume that of his 29 PA’s as a PH, Margot has faced a RH pitcher (essentially always after a pitching change) in his AB’s……at least 25-26 of the 29 PA’s.

Well, the guy was hitting .080 against all RH pitching 3 months ago ……..probably not a leap to ease him back in against the side he’s supposed to be able to hit first. The experimentation desire in The Show doesn’t seem prudent heading down the stretch of the season. He’s been having success over about a dozen games so far…….let’s keep the momentum going and let him evolve v. RH pitching and then add opportunities v. LH pitching in the future - meaning in ‘25.