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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    So far, they have weathered the injuries well, (Larnach, Farmer, etc. have really stepped up) but the holes in the lineup continue to get deeper. These next couple of weeks, when hopefully we get a few guys coming back and hopefully picking up where the replacements have left off, will be a big indicator for how this team will be able to handle adversity. Along the way, we're finding out a bit more about Solano, Farmer, Julien, etc. and you've got to like what we see so far. The pitching staff has responded magnificently and if we can keep them healthy, it takes a lot of heat off of the hitters -- I can't believe I'm typing that about the Twins! Let's leave the injuries on the lineup side. They are somewhat less dangerous to replace.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    Nice break down. Unquestionably, a stronger season from one of their outfielders would be very beneficial, but that's not quite the entire story. Realistically, Buxton is likely to be successful in a manner similar to last year, and with Taylor around, the urgency to have him play center field isn't as intense. Taylor, for his part, looks like he will be a model of "OK"ness with the bat, which is also fine along with the as advertised defensive chops. Larnach looks to be beginning to truly break out. Kepler and Gallo are real wildcards, although Gallo in particular looks to be making some progress. However, at the end of the day, it depends as much on the situational aspect of their hitting as anything. Taylor was extraordinarily valuable in the game yesterday, but on another day, his contributions wouldn't have made the difference. If the offense ever starts to all wake up at the same time, they could be excellent. This is the time of year when patience is hard to have, because we are looking at the small sample size low batting averages and OPS's and going crazy. Give it three or four more weeks. We'll know a lot more then, plus some of the reinforcements might be closer to ready by then.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    This article is far too sensible and level-headed. You are absolutely right in that we do tend to sweat over the most minute details as though those were necessarily going to be the difference between an 80 win team and a 100 win team. I'm with you. . . if I'm really going to enjoy Twins baseball, I need to step back, watch, and relax. Smile when things go well. Maybe curse a little when they don't. But it's a lot less stressful and a lot more pleasant than the alternative. Go Twins!
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    The good news is that the team is winning games and mostly looking pretty good. The pitching has been mostly as advertised, even if there are still questions out there (Name a team that never has questions about at least one member of their starting rotation). Holding down the opposition means that even though the Twins' hitting has just been "OK", the team can still compete. Good start, now let's keep it going through the tougher schedule coming up!
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    Well. . . it would speed up the game! But yes, too different.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    Excellent article. Let’s see. . . Some injury concerns? Check Several prospects passing him in the pecking order? Check Good “stuff”? Check Maximizing the personnel on the roster? Check Looks like he could be successful in the pen? Check Twins have had success converting starters to relievers? Check He checks all the boxes for me. Give him a key to the bullpen door!
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    In my (former) world, as a band director, we were forced to find ways for data to drive everything we did. That's a fine idea when the question is "How many math problems can Johnny do correctly on this test?" but not always useful when describing someone's consistency in producing a quality product in music or art. So, as fine arts teachers, we are faced with using anecdotal data, meaning what and at what level do we observe something and and do we observe it frequently. As the teacher/manager/director/coach you develop a "feel" for how someone can perform something. I don't think that's better (or worse) than a good healthy statistical analysis. There are things that anecdotal data describes very well and things that it does not. In fact, I think that the best knowledge comes from having both statistical data and anecdotal data, but that's not always easy or even possible. In the case of the mental part of the game, anecdotal data may be the best (if imprecise and inconsistent) way of measuring it.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    Thanks for doing these every week. It’s great to tie together a longer narrative than just following the daily grind, which can be overly depressing or overly elating depending upon the day. Go Twins!
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think most of these are on the money. Gray, Mahle, and Taylor are going nowhere, and shouldn’t. In fact, I think one of those pitchers plus possibly Taylor get resigned/extended. Gallo. If he keeps hitting like today, he’ll play all 162 games and we’ll be happy he is doing it, regardless of what the strike out counters say. I actually think that Kepler has a shorter leash than he does and we trade him for a prospect and a bag of balls if he doesn’t start hitting soon. Maeda is such a wildcard. If he could pitch like it’s 2020, it’s a no brainer to keep him around, but if he is slow to regain form or is just ineffective, he becomes Chris Archer. I think that the first “demotion” would be to the bullpen, but he’s got to be effective to keep a job. I actually think that Solano will be the first guy to go, either as a minor trade or a cut. When Lewis gets healthy/someone else forces the issue through strong performance at St. Paul, he’s the logical guy to go. Pagan. Argh! Nuff said. I don’t think anyone else is going anywhere unless the team is in a lot of trouble.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Nothing shocking here. If Cleveland continues to progress, the Guardians are an obvious pick. The question is whether they can make that happen. The Sox tend to overperform the expectations about once every five years and underperform the other four, so they are getting their usual (too much) respect. I know they have some good pitchers and potentially star offensive players, but I just don’t see it. The Twins will almost always fly under the radar everywhere but in the upper Midwest, so it’s not a surprise. The national press knows that Correa signed here and that Arraez was traded but the rest of the details are fuzzy — it’s always that way with the Chicago writers at least (plus they always refer to the Twins as “pesky”,). Will the Twins exceed the middling expectations? I’d like to think so but that’s why we play the games!
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    Not interested. First of all, trading an MLB level starting pitcher for a Single A prospect seems like a pretty big stretch, since Parada has a lot of ground to cover before he even gets to the majors. However, in this case, you really aren’t trading the player that Bailey Ober is now, you are trading the player that you think he will become, with several years of team control, and the projections for Ober look to be good. Maeda, with only this year of control, would be another story. That trade I would definitely consider. Remember, the Mets only need coverage in the short term (at least in their minds).
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    Just like a team can never have too many athletes who are/were good enough to play shortstop, there can never be enough starting pitchers. Between injuries (both temporary and career altering), ineffectiveness, and players that just never put it together, there will always be more need. Besides, some of them will be turned into relievers and contribute that way. These are, however, strange times for the Twins pitching staff!
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    Completely agree! Of all the acquisitions, this one is perhaps the most underrated and yet might become one of the most important to prevent those awful dominoes from falling! And he gets to debut opening day against his old team as well!
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    It would be absolutely ideal if it works out (as you say) with Jorge Lopez in a somewhat traditional closers role. That means that Duran and Jax are likely able to duplicate last years numbers, Thielbar has another season left in the tank, and Alcala and Moran take a step forward. THAT would be a top ten bullpen! And look, I haven’t even mentioned he shall not be named!
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    It’s about time! The thought that MLB, a multi-billion dollar for - profit enterprise, was being subsidized by salaries so low that players had to rely on host families for lodging is utterly shameful and ridiculous.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    So you’re saying that if last year’s starting pitchers had just pitched more innings, the Twins would have had a better record? (That is the goal after all.) I will agree to disagree, but that rotation just wasn’t good enough to warrant that. Except for a few Gray and Ryan starts (and not that many) I would much prefer a fresh arm going out there. I will agree that circumstances on the field should (and I think do) dictate when a starter is done for the day, but the idea that it is an arbitrary decision seems unlikely. Bringing in the bullpen when you are ahead 3-2 at the end of the fifth is preferable to down 5-3 at the end of the sixth.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    The Twins were at 4.8 innings per start last year. The number one team (surprise surprise, they also led in pitches per start at 92) was the Astros at 5.9 innings per start. Now compare the quality of starting pitcher on the Astros (or the Padres, or . . . . ) with the Twins, and I'm certain we can figure out why. If the Twins get an extra out per game they are at about 5.1 or 5.2, which was the league average for starters. Eliminating Bundy and especially Archer will help that situation quite a bit, but you have to ask yourself whether a fatigued starter facing the third time through the lineup is better than a fresh bullpen arm. The statistics say that the third time through the lineup is a disaster for most starting pitchers. Being ahead 3 to 2 after five innings is definitely better than being behind 3 to 5 after six.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    It still comes down to who you think has the best chance at keeping the opposing team at bay in the sixth inning (or 5th or 7th, etc.). If you think that the fatigued starter, especially if it's Bundy or Archer, has the best shot the third time through the lineup, then leave him in there. However, if you think that a fresh arm, maybe not even one as good on paper as the starter, has the better chance of success, then that is the way to go. In a vacuum, assuming that last year's bullpen was less good than last year's starters (not a sure thing), then leaving the starter in was the better play, but there are too many variables for blanket statements like that. It seems just as likely that that extra inning may have meant being behind by a run instead of ahead by a run, which puts more pressure on the offense.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    Excellent summary article that ties together the many loose ends that the offseason brought. Aside from all of the personnel moves, I had forgotten about the scoreboard and the uniforms. Things really will look different this year! Unless injury Armageddon happens again, it seems likely that this team should be improved over last year’s record. If a lot of things go right, even with a few things going wrong, this will likely be a 90+ win team. Let’s go play some games and see whether we’re right!
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    This has become the favorite red herring of Twins fans. There was a perfect storm of activity last year that led to short starters not just in MN but across the league. Initially, the short spring training after the lockout led to “extended spring training” of a sort to start the season for everyone. The major issue for the Twins as the season went on was that they didn’t have very good starting pitchers and that they would tend to implode after twice through the lineup or would be inefficient enough that the pitch count would escalate through five innings. I don’t think that we are likely to ever go back to a bunch of complete games and/or games where we see starter and then closer. However, I think this year’s group has a good shot to at least start that third time through the lineup. Lopez proved he could do that last season, as did Mahle (although injury is a concern, if we ever figure out what the problem really was/is). Joe Ryan should be another year older and another year wiser. Sonny Gray has an expressed frustration with the early hook. That leaves post-Tommy John Kenta Maeda as the only one of the rotation likely to get the early hook. Another poster somewhere pointed out that having the starters go one more inning is indeed a lot, and a lot more than it seems like, as that leads to 162 inning less in bullpen workload. Let’s hope for an out or two extra from everyone and a successful season for the Twins.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think THIS is the right question. For me, Maeda only gets about two or three. Mahle about four. The other three guys I roll with a long time.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    Ober getting optioned to St. Paul is certainly disappointing, but it is no real surprise and quite necessary given the team’s current roster. One of the other five starters will be either injured or ineffective in short order (this is the nature of pitching!) and he will be starting for the Twins. I would bet on 20+ starts for the Twins from Ober this year (if HE is healthy). I’m soooooooooo happy that we’re not calling up Aaron Sanchez (yet) or Chris Archer. I’m oddly excited about Willie Castro. Every now and then, there is a lightning in a bottle non-roster guy that winds up playing really well for a while at the beginning of the season and I think hat Castro might be that guy. Defensively, he’s certainly very useful and maybe he can do enough offensively that we won’t miss Polanco and Kiriloff so much.
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’d put the odds as follows: Duran to the All-Star team, about 80%. Gallo for 30 HR, about 50%. Joe Ryan as a Cy Young Contender. This would be something that would really propel the Twins team and bode awfully well for the next few years. However, not yet. Maybe. . .20% Buxton in 115 games, about 80%. I would like to add a couple of predictions. Trevor Larnach finds his health, puts up 25 HR and claims a regular starting spot. Carlos Correa puts himself in the MVP conversation with excellent defense, consistently good offense, and outstanding veteran leadership. I don’t really think it’s Buxton and Correa’s team. By the end of this year, it will be Correa’s team, and that’s a very big reason why the team signed him. Max Kepler will continue to frustrate everyone — the fans, the team, and likely Max Kepler.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think it is reasonable to think that Buxton, based on his numbers from the past three years, is going to be a solid DH to begin the year — probably stronger than anyone else we were going to play there. In the field, Taylor will play an excellent center field, even if he is not a great hitter. However, when we think of Taylor, he’s not replacing Buxton’s bat in the lineup. He’s replacing the bat of the DH who would bat if Buxton weren’t there. Some days that might be a strong hitter, like Miranda, but on plenty of others, that hitter won’t be that much better than Taylor, who is a very long distance from the black hole that Miguel Sano or someone like him would be. I also think Buxton is the new “we signed him to a big contract and now he needs to be Superman” argument that many made about Joe Mauer when he was playing. First of all, Buxton’s contract is for about $15M per year, which he is likely to well-earn, even in a year he isn’t playing 140 games. Second, $15M doesn’t buy nearly as much as it used to. Third, if this results in him playing even 120 games this year, I’m not at all worried about the value the Twins will get from him. Let’s let something go wrong before we search for reasons for problems that haven’t occurred yet.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    First of all, anyone who is complaining about “Cheap Pohlads” obviously wasn’t around during the Calvin Griffith ownership years. When Carl Pohlad bought the team he was absolutely a savior for MN baseball. The late 1970’s were PAINFUL. Second of all, it’s a business. Of course they would like to turn a yearly operating profit, just like the hair salon or mechanic shop down the street. Sometimes they will do really well and sometimes it is a bad year. I grew up on a farm and I get that entirely. What everyone (including the Pohlad family) needs to realize is that the big money to be made is when the team is sold for many millions (billions?) more than it was bought for. In the meantime, I’m sure they would like to make a few bucks off of their investment, whether they are promoting their product/putting a good product on the field or not. Are these numbers absolutely accurate? Of course not, because much of this is difficult to quantify. However, this is the best we have and it seems reasonable that one can compare between teams. That’s what the article is about.
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