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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    Nothing shocking here. If Cleveland continues to progress, the Guardians are an obvious pick. The question is whether they can make that happen. The Sox tend to overperform the expectations about once every five years and underperform the other four, so they are getting their usual (too much) respect. I know they have some good pitchers and potentially star offensive players, but I just don’t see it. The Twins will almost always fly under the radar everywhere but in the upper Midwest, so it’s not a surprise. The national press knows that Correa signed here and that Arraez was traded but the rest of the details are fuzzy — it’s always that way with the Chicago writers at least (plus they always refer to the Twins as “pesky”,). Will the Twins exceed the middling expectations? I’d like to think so but that’s why we play the games!
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    Not interested. First of all, trading an MLB level starting pitcher for a Single A prospect seems like a pretty big stretch, since Parada has a lot of ground to cover before he even gets to the majors. However, in this case, you really aren’t trading the player that Bailey Ober is now, you are trading the player that you think he will become, with several years of team control, and the projections for Ober look to be good. Maeda, with only this year of control, would be another story. That trade I would definitely consider. Remember, the Mets only need coverage in the short term (at least in their minds).
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    Just like a team can never have too many athletes who are/were good enough to play shortstop, there can never be enough starting pitchers. Between injuries (both temporary and career altering), ineffectiveness, and players that just never put it together, there will always be more need. Besides, some of them will be turned into relievers and contribute that way. These are, however, strange times for the Twins pitching staff!
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    Completely agree! Of all the acquisitions, this one is perhaps the most underrated and yet might become one of the most important to prevent those awful dominoes from falling! And he gets to debut opening day against his old team as well!
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    It would be absolutely ideal if it works out (as you say) with Jorge Lopez in a somewhat traditional closers role. That means that Duran and Jax are likely able to duplicate last years numbers, Thielbar has another season left in the tank, and Alcala and Moran take a step forward. THAT would be a top ten bullpen! And look, I haven’t even mentioned he shall not be named!
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    It’s about time! The thought that MLB, a multi-billion dollar for - profit enterprise, was being subsidized by salaries so low that players had to rely on host families for lodging is utterly shameful and ridiculous.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    So you’re saying that if last year’s starting pitchers had just pitched more innings, the Twins would have had a better record? (That is the goal after all.) I will agree to disagree, but that rotation just wasn’t good enough to warrant that. Except for a few Gray and Ryan starts (and not that many) I would much prefer a fresh arm going out there. I will agree that circumstances on the field should (and I think do) dictate when a starter is done for the day, but the idea that it is an arbitrary decision seems unlikely. Bringing in the bullpen when you are ahead 3-2 at the end of the fifth is preferable to down 5-3 at the end of the sixth.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    The Twins were at 4.8 innings per start last year. The number one team (surprise surprise, they also led in pitches per start at 92) was the Astros at 5.9 innings per start. Now compare the quality of starting pitcher on the Astros (or the Padres, or . . . . ) with the Twins, and I'm certain we can figure out why. If the Twins get an extra out per game they are at about 5.1 or 5.2, which was the league average for starters. Eliminating Bundy and especially Archer will help that situation quite a bit, but you have to ask yourself whether a fatigued starter facing the third time through the lineup is better than a fresh bullpen arm. The statistics say that the third time through the lineup is a disaster for most starting pitchers. Being ahead 3 to 2 after five innings is definitely better than being behind 3 to 5 after six.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    It still comes down to who you think has the best chance at keeping the opposing team at bay in the sixth inning (or 5th or 7th, etc.). If you think that the fatigued starter, especially if it's Bundy or Archer, has the best shot the third time through the lineup, then leave him in there. However, if you think that a fresh arm, maybe not even one as good on paper as the starter, has the better chance of success, then that is the way to go. In a vacuum, assuming that last year's bullpen was less good than last year's starters (not a sure thing), then leaving the starter in was the better play, but there are too many variables for blanket statements like that. It seems just as likely that that extra inning may have meant being behind by a run instead of ahead by a run, which puts more pressure on the offense.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Excellent summary article that ties together the many loose ends that the offseason brought. Aside from all of the personnel moves, I had forgotten about the scoreboard and the uniforms. Things really will look different this year! Unless injury Armageddon happens again, it seems likely that this team should be improved over last year’s record. If a lot of things go right, even with a few things going wrong, this will likely be a 90+ win team. Let’s go play some games and see whether we’re right!
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    This has become the favorite red herring of Twins fans. There was a perfect storm of activity last year that led to short starters not just in MN but across the league. Initially, the short spring training after the lockout led to “extended spring training” of a sort to start the season for everyone. The major issue for the Twins as the season went on was that they didn’t have very good starting pitchers and that they would tend to implode after twice through the lineup or would be inefficient enough that the pitch count would escalate through five innings. I don’t think that we are likely to ever go back to a bunch of complete games and/or games where we see starter and then closer. However, I think this year’s group has a good shot to at least start that third time through the lineup. Lopez proved he could do that last season, as did Mahle (although injury is a concern, if we ever figure out what the problem really was/is). Joe Ryan should be another year older and another year wiser. Sonny Gray has an expressed frustration with the early hook. That leaves post-Tommy John Kenta Maeda as the only one of the rotation likely to get the early hook. Another poster somewhere pointed out that having the starters go one more inning is indeed a lot, and a lot more than it seems like, as that leads to 162 inning less in bullpen workload. Let’s hope for an out or two extra from everyone and a successful season for the Twins.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think THIS is the right question. For me, Maeda only gets about two or three. Mahle about four. The other three guys I roll with a long time.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    Ober getting optioned to St. Paul is certainly disappointing, but it is no real surprise and quite necessary given the team’s current roster. One of the other five starters will be either injured or ineffective in short order (this is the nature of pitching!) and he will be starting for the Twins. I would bet on 20+ starts for the Twins from Ober this year (if HE is healthy). I’m soooooooooo happy that we’re not calling up Aaron Sanchez (yet) or Chris Archer. I’m oddly excited about Willie Castro. Every now and then, there is a lightning in a bottle non-roster guy that winds up playing really well for a while at the beginning of the season and I think hat Castro might be that guy. Defensively, he’s certainly very useful and maybe he can do enough offensively that we won’t miss Polanco and Kiriloff so much.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’d put the odds as follows: Duran to the All-Star team, about 80%. Gallo for 30 HR, about 50%. Joe Ryan as a Cy Young Contender. This would be something that would really propel the Twins team and bode awfully well for the next few years. However, not yet. Maybe. . .20% Buxton in 115 games, about 80%. I would like to add a couple of predictions. Trevor Larnach finds his health, puts up 25 HR and claims a regular starting spot. Carlos Correa puts himself in the MVP conversation with excellent defense, consistently good offense, and outstanding veteran leadership. I don’t really think it’s Buxton and Correa’s team. By the end of this year, it will be Correa’s team, and that’s a very big reason why the team signed him. Max Kepler will continue to frustrate everyone — the fans, the team, and likely Max Kepler.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think it is reasonable to think that Buxton, based on his numbers from the past three years, is going to be a solid DH to begin the year — probably stronger than anyone else we were going to play there. In the field, Taylor will play an excellent center field, even if he is not a great hitter. However, when we think of Taylor, he’s not replacing Buxton’s bat in the lineup. He’s replacing the bat of the DH who would bat if Buxton weren’t there. Some days that might be a strong hitter, like Miranda, but on plenty of others, that hitter won’t be that much better than Taylor, who is a very long distance from the black hole that Miguel Sano or someone like him would be. I also think Buxton is the new “we signed him to a big contract and now he needs to be Superman” argument that many made about Joe Mauer when he was playing. First of all, Buxton’s contract is for about $15M per year, which he is likely to well-earn, even in a year he isn’t playing 140 games. Second, $15M doesn’t buy nearly as much as it used to. Third, if this results in him playing even 120 games this year, I’m not at all worried about the value the Twins will get from him. Let’s let something go wrong before we search for reasons for problems that haven’t occurred yet.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    First of all, anyone who is complaining about “Cheap Pohlads” obviously wasn’t around during the Calvin Griffith ownership years. When Carl Pohlad bought the team he was absolutely a savior for MN baseball. The late 1970’s were PAINFUL. Second of all, it’s a business. Of course they would like to turn a yearly operating profit, just like the hair salon or mechanic shop down the street. Sometimes they will do really well and sometimes it is a bad year. I grew up on a farm and I get that entirely. What everyone (including the Pohlad family) needs to realize is that the big money to be made is when the team is sold for many millions (billions?) more than it was bought for. In the meantime, I’m sure they would like to make a few bucks off of their investment, whether they are promoting their product/putting a good product on the field or not. Are these numbers absolutely accurate? Of course not, because much of this is difficult to quantify. However, this is the best we have and it seems reasonable that one can compare between teams. That’s what the article is about.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    You have hit on five guys with a lot of reasons to root for them. I think the most likely candidates are Ober and Larnach. Trevor Larnach has intermittently looked good at the MLB level after being wildly successful during his full seasons in the minors. Now that he’s healthy it seems like he is poised for more success. Ober, who is my number one candidate for a breakout, may start at St. Paul, but I think the chances of all five starters ahead of him being healthy and effective are very slim, so he will get plenty of opportunities to shine. I think he will get 20+ starts with the Twins this year and will have a solid (3.00-3.50) ERA as well. By the way, I’m going to hope for all five of your candidates to breakout! Wouldn’t that be something!
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m right with you on these predictions. I have faith that the improved pitching can get us to 90+ wins and that the Guardians will be right there with us. I think that ultimately our depth will be the difference. The White Sox couldn’t be less predictable. I think their ceiling is probably 90 wins, but their floor might be 90 losses. I think they will miss Jose Abreu and his magic RBI machine much more than they think they will. Hate to see him go to the Astros though. The Tigers and the Royals are bad enough that I almost find myself rooting for them to win some more games. They could get hot for a few games but there is just no depth there whatsoever. Strikeout #3K should be a nice highlight for the future hall of fame pitcher Zach Greinke, but I’m not seeing the highlight out there for the Tigers. Ouch.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    This year's bullpen seems pretty solid on down to about 4 or 5 guys. The back of the bullpen is a little iffy, but that's how we find the guy who's "next" to be good. Predicting how the bullpen will fare I think is much more difficult than the starting rotation. It could be one of the very top ones, but also given the nature of bullpens, could also be one of the worst. Having Duran certainly helps stabilize it, but remember, nobody is a sure thing in pitching. Bullpens are the ultimate in trying to judge small sample sizes. If a relief pitcher has two or three bad outings to start the season (this isn't about Pagan, he was pretty awful for longer than that), they get an ERA of about 8.00 and that looks really bad. Plus pitching in small samples it takes a very long time to get that back under control. Other pitchers can have a consistent decent ERA while still allowing runs to score here and there. Personally, I'd rather have the reliever with an ERA of 3.50 that throws a dumpster fire once in a while and then is lights out rather than a reliever that is "pretty decent" all the time but gives up a run here or there consistently. The former may cost you a game here or there, but the latter will trickle away leads all season long.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    It's true. On paper we have arguably the Twins' best starting rotation in memory. Be honest, when was the last time you weren't scared to death when the Twins trotted out their number five starter, or worse yet, the replacement for the number five starter? Being realistic about it, because it's pitching, one of them will spend a large amount of time on the injured list and another one will be mysteriously (or not so mysteriously) ineffective. Now we're down to three of the original five. Bring up Ober and Varland and the rotation is back to being pretty good again (and it could be argued that there is more talent left to tap into at St. Paul). THAT is why I'm extremely optimistic about the chances of competing for the division title and in the playoffs this year. Now let's go play some ballgames!
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    Great shots! Thanks for putting them out there!
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    Awesome night for Arraez! I am rooting for him to win another batting title and Lopez to win an ERA title! That's how trades are supposed to work out. It makes it easier and more productive for both teams to do business the next time!
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    This was a great kick off the season article. Sometimes we as fans let the perfect be the enemy of the good. If after thinking this offseason through, you can't come up for any reason for optimism, then you are very difficult to please. Did they do EVERYTHING I wanted them to do? Of course not, but they have made some solid decisions in the past 12 months that make me believe Twins management is serious about trying to put a contender out there. Do I think that every decision is a perfect one? Nope, but they're working the problem instead of sitting on their hands. Is Rocco Baldelli going to make every perfect decision this year? I'm sure not, but he is a professional manager that is preferable to a lot of other guys out there. (I hear Tony LaRussa is available!). What I think we forget as the season goes on is that (nearly) every other team out there is also trying to field a contender and sometimes certain plans work out better than others. We can all say that we want to be just like . . . .<insert team name here>, but that team doesn't always win either and may have some circumstances that prevent that. Houston has a great team (currently, but definitely not historically), maybe the Yankees do, but we're not them. Which other AL Central team would you like to be? None of those seem obviously better than the Twins. Or would you rather be the Angels? How about the Rangers? I like our chances to be pretty good. I'd love the perfect but I'll certainly take some good! Time to enjoy some baseball!
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    Figuring out potential relief pictures is an incredibly nebulous process. Bullpens across baseball are filled with failed starters whose stuff plays better in small samples, “mystery guys” who don’t seem to have great stuff but seem to get guys out, and lights out killers who just get up and blow people away. It sounds like Hoffman might have unlocked something, putting him in the first category, but I’m guessing we’ll learn a bit more in the next couple of weeks as he gets more use. If they have some faith that he could be effective, it makes a lot of sense to send Megill to St. Paul. It’s like having an extra reliever (and certainly more flexibility) for little to no investment. Psychologically, I feel better with this than I do with the continuing Pagan fixation, even if Pagan has the better stuff on paper.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    This has got to be one of Baldelli’s most difficult calls. Kepler’s great glove gives him a high floor such that he doesn’t hurt the team immensely if his bat isn’t working very well - even at a slugger position, but on the other hand, sometimes the bat gets so bad that the glove just can’t make up for it. He’s obviously the starting RF on opening day, but if things go South with his hitting, I think he’s going to get a lot fewer at bats as the season progresses. There is just too much depth behind him not to try some new players at the position.
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