Rod Carews Birthday
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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday
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If you could get a deal done for four years in the 30's, that would be pretty great. It seems likely he will make around $15M for the next two years in arbitration -- more if he breaks out a little more. That means that in 27 and 28 you would be paying him around $15 - 20M for two more years, OR TRANSLATED, probably less money per year than we are paying Vasquez now. -
We obviously disagree on Julien's value, which is just fine. However, "IF Julien indeed fixes his problems" you are expecting next year's list to be different. Certainly true. He could very well rocket quite a ways up the list (development is a marathon, not a sprint) -- perhaps from 20th to the top ten. The premise of my point was that Julien's problems as manifest so far in his career aren't that different than those of Brooks Lee (who hasn't hit anything at all) and Royce Lewis (who seemed to have forgotten how to hit at the end of the year). Even though they also had issues, we seem to collectively give them a free pass. Taking your premise that hope isn't a strategy, does that put the two of them off the list as well?
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- edouard julien
- marco raya
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If he can be had for a simple waiver claim, it's a no-brainer. If we have to pay something in trade, then we need to investigate his fall off a little more seriously. HOWEVER, if we have someone in the system that we like, I wouldn't want this lottery ticket taking playing time away from someone who we think we might believe in.
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- jair camargo
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This is a really cool article. My compliments to the research on this compelling story from yesteryear. Sometimes history is just sitting out there and we charge by without paying attention. Thanks for making me stop to observe. I wonder how many stories like this exist in other cities as well.
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Maybe. But maybe not. Have Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis been exposed too? Lee didn’t really hit at all and Lewis hit (and stayed in) a long nasty slump the last major portion of the season. Many are counting on them as key pieces and yet both have less plate appearances in the majors than Julien. I’m continually surprised that many people have seemingly written off Julien completely after last year. I think that we would find that he still has a fair amount of trade value if he were made available. To suppose he is “exposed” implies an inability to learn and make adjustments to his game. Last offseason, the complaint was that he was a butcher at second base, however, when 2024 started, he came in with substantially improved defense (although some will painfully argue against that point). That tells me that he has already demonstrated an ability to learn and improve in one area. It may take some time spent at AAA, but why not hitting next? He’s done it every year of his career except last year. If the over/under is Julien being “exposed” and not having any more MLB career, then I’ll take the over every time.
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- edouard julien
- marco raya
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I take your point, but not entirely dishonest. The strawman argument is the disingenuous assertion ABOUT analytics that gets thrown out at every turn whenever Rocco Baldelli’s name is brought up. “It’s too much”. “Spreadsheet manager”. “He’s on his computer again.” . On and on it goes, when in reality nobody really knows “how much” goes into it except for Rocco Baldelli. When people say “I dislike Baldelli because he platoons too much” or “I think he is too quick to pinch hit” I will buy the argument whether I agree with it or not. But too often the criticism just takes the form of the same old platitudes over and over again that lack specificity to the point of being nothing but noise, so I choose to call to call it out.
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THIS. EXACTLY. It’s amazing how a word or two can become a weapon that just gets tossed in no matter what the argument. The argument as I understand it is that Rocco Baldelli isn’t a good manager because he uses “analytics” too much and/or manages “with a spreadsheet”, and that it would be better if he managed “by feel” and “with his gut”. YIKES! To me, managing with his gut would seem to suggest a guy sitting in his lazy boy with a beer just throwing stuff out there. What information exactly does anyone think goes into a managerial decision from the gut? I would think that it would involve information based on the experience of the manager and the perceived tendencies of the player(s) involved. That’s it. Spreadsheet or no, analytics is a part of everything we do. The implication that he manages “with a spreadsheet” to me implies that he is considering so much data, mere pencil and paper nor human mind can keep track of it all. That seems OK. “From the gut” implies a careless attitude about decision making and I don’t think any of us want that. For the record, I am Baldelli indifferent. I don’t think that he (or any manager) makes us great or makes us terrible. The right players make any manager look really good. In answer to the original question, yes, with the team for sale he’s probably a lame duck unless he has a spectacular season. I see that as little cause for distress nor celebration.
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Is Feduccia better than Gaspar? He might be, but it's definitely not obvious. He strikes me as someone who the Dodgers can't use that's been dressed up in a nice suit and showcased. I'm not sold.
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I'm sure that Dobnak is available to any team that wants to take over his contract. We're not "hanging on" to Dobnak. We just can't get anyone to take the salary.
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Not enthralled with the return. A pitcher and a catcher would be fine, but I'd like them to be better than these two guys. Just because they are coming from the "World Champion" Dodgers doesn't make prospects better than if they come from anywhere else, but sometimes we are just as guilty of big market bias as the media is.
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- jhoan duran
- hunter feduccia
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Actually in 1979, a $1.8M salary would have been a huge deal, not something minor. Our top salary that year was indeed a closer, Mike Marshall, who made $300K. The minimum salary was $21K. back then so the investment was substantially smaller. In fact, the first million dollar player, Nolan Ryan, came in 1980.
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The thought that individual fans can organize themselves in such a way as to affect the bottom line of the club in any meaningful amount is silly. If you are frustrated, which is understandable, you have the ability to spend your time and money elsewhere, but don't be deceived about its effect.
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Among position players, I worry most about Wallner. His strikeout rate with a limited track record means that he will always be living on the edge and could fall apart. On the other hand, there are plenty of hitters who have not only lived, but thrived on that edge -- even a few HOFers. Among pitchers, Duran scares me. In 2023, he was ridiculous. Nobody could touch him. In 2024, with just a little velocity lost, he was just "good". Lose another tick and he could be in real trouble. Personally, I would trade him. Now is the time. You have Jax as the closer and a lot of solid bullpen arms. He could correct himself and be back to his unhittable ways, but I would rather let someone else worry about that. On the starting staff, outside of the injury threat which is always present, Lopez and Ryan don't scare me at all. Neither of them seems to need to bring their best stuff to every game while still being effective. For me, they are ceasing to be "young pitchers" and are morphing into "dependable veteran pitchers". If either of them had the dream season where everything goes right and they always have their best stuff, they would positively be amazing. Ober is close, but I feel like he still needs a little bit of seasoning to get there. Could one of them regress? Sure, but I think they are pretty dependable at this point. Now SWR on the other hand. . . hmmmm. Expecting him to repeat his 2024 performance might be a stretch.
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- carlos correa
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Moran also was left exposed to the rule 5 and no one took him (for almost free). So. . . the trade was rule 5 guy for former rule 5 guy. On paper, that's a good one because the former rule 5 guy did enough to warrant adding him to the 40 man roster while the current rule 5 guy did so little he was left unprotected (and untaken).
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I do think that this is possible, but I think that the common opinion on TD is that his bat is cooked and that he will never regress back to what he was from 2019-2022. What I don't think will happen is that he will be worse in 25 than he was in 24. He kind of is what he is, which considering his defense, isn't nothing. The big question is whether the Twins will step up the payroll slightly to keep everyone on board.
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- carlos correa
- matt wallner
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This. There doesn't seem to be a ton of urgency to trade to dump salary, AND they tendered Willi Castro (which was the right decision regardless). Maybe "won't cut payroll" just means that they will roll the team back out there and hope for some positives to go their way this summer. Probably not, but a guy can hope!
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- james mccann
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Agreed that Margot didn't move the bar except backward, but Miller did manage to work his OPS back up to .668 -- AFTER being demoted from AA to A+ (Yikes!). I think fault is at the feet of the Twins for giving Margot so many at bats and not cutting bait, but they didn't exactly give up a kings ransom to get him. On paper, the acquisition wasn't terrible, but on the field it was a disaster. They needed to recognize it sooner and give those at bats to a player that actually might have a future with the team.
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Oops almost forgot the most important question. Which is better, Gaspar's mustache or Austin Martin's use of face paint?
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I think this is one of those longshot, lottery ticket style trades. There are some underlying traits that could play well, but not much to show for it -- and also not much of an opportunity gotten from the previous team. Teams do this all the time. Not a big cost, but not a big return either -- just hoping to catch something useful. They did it a couple of years ago with a claim on Willi Castro. In the Twins current situation, I really like the trade. They weren't going to pitch Moran, and it appears the league agreed with that assessment. They could use a lottery ticket as a catcher (he could be the insurance policy on them trading Vasquez) and it appears that he has a few other flexible defensive skills. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he winds up on the opening day roster. We all thought Willi Castro wasn't going to stick a few years ago too. Getting into the cheapness factor or the bad management factor or the bad trading factor (all of which are relative, and perhaps not always based in reality) does the Twins or the fans no good at all. From a purely baseball standpoint, this makes a ton of sense. Now go out and trade a middle infielder or two.
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Agreed on the '84 Twins turning into the '87 and '91 Twins. None of those additions were amazing players though. They were certainly contributors, but none of them were players who could carry the team on their backs. I would argue that most of the improvement came from guys like Hrbek, Gaetti, and Puckett getting better and carrying the team on their performance. My hope is that guys like Wallner, ERod, and Jenkins can do a similar thing for this latest group. With Correa, Buxton, and Lopez already in the fold, the potential is certainly there.
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So. . . .you’re saying that a difference in fielding percentage (not the best stat on Earth but we’ll use it) of .015 is going to be crippling to a right fielder with a cannon arm and will completely negate the offensive production difference (139 OPS+ in three years vs. 102 OPS+ in ten years with a most recent 91 OPS+) — production that we’re admittedly not sure of but that seems to have tons of potential to grow in a full season? OK. . . It would seem that Kepler is a better outfielder, but the bat just isn’t holding down the position. I do believe, that Minnesota wanted out of Kepler also.
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- max kepler
- brent rooker
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Gosh, if only weak contact Kepler were there to drive in all of those runs. . . . . oops. . . wait a minute, it doesn't work that way. I think Max Kepler might be the nicest guy in the world, but as a baseball player he got way too many chances with the Twins. I wish him well and hope he has a great season elsewhere. It was past time for him to move on.
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- max kepler
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Tune into the 70's and 80's sometime. It had some very shiny moments but a lot of misery and pain. The mid-90's weren't special either.
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People think he was really something because he occupied a spot for a long time. He was not without his merits, but I don't think he will be missed much at all. He had one great season, and two periods of about 10 weeks that were good. Otherwise. . . . zzzzzzzz.
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- max kepler
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Apparently your history as a fan doesn’t go back far enough to appreciate what low morale really was. It has plenty far to go down.
