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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    So you can overrun the base completely? Or slide to the side and slap the base with your hand to evade the tag, like guys do at home plate? I think making the bases larger (thus shortening the distance between them) and limiting pickoff throws would be far easier and more effective ways to encourage stolen base attempts, and both of those things are being testing in minor leagues this season. I'd be in favor of a time limit on instant replays too, although that seems like an entirely separate concern from incentivizing stolen base attempts.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm sure the Angels hope one of their opponents does that.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a different Murphy -- Sean Murphy. John Ryan Murphy is currently a free agent, although he did see some action for the Pirates in 2020 so perhaps it's too early to consider him "unofficially retired."
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are including Baddoo (who never actually played in MLB for the Twins), then you need to include Huascar Ynoa who has been fantastic in the Atlanta rotation this year. Or, drop Baddoo from the team and replace him with Aaron Hicks and/or Robbie Grossman. Liam Hendriks needs to be on this fantasy team; Curtiss has probably earned it too. Slegers, Kinley, Kintzler, and Hildenberger are all currently active too. No catchers? Jason Castro, Kurt Suzuki, Alex Avila. (René Rivera is back too!) (Others qualifying under the Baddoo rule would be Tyler Wells, Deolis Guerra, and Brooks Raley.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Following up on my previous post, here are the correct Fangraphs positional WAR values and ranks for the 2021 Twins: C: 0.2 WAR, 9th in the AL 1B: 0.4, 7th 2B: 0.0, 13th SS: 0.7, 7th 3B: 1.2, 2nd RF: 0.1, 11th CF: 2.2, 2nd LF: -0.2, 11th DH: 0.9, 3rd As you can see, Cody's erroneous numbers were wildly inflating our 2B and LF performance, while under-rating our C performance.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't blame WAR here, blame the messenger (sorry, Cody). Cody was looking at the combined overall numbers of everyone who has appeared in LF (from the horizontal position list at Fangraphs). So his quoted number covers 297 PA, 2nd most in the AL (over 10 PA per game!), and includes Arraez's full 0.9 WAR, plus 0.5 WAR for Kirilloff and Garlick. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=21,d But what he should have been looking at is the vertical drop-down "LF" split -- that will only show the stats accumulated by guys while playing LF. That covers 116 PA (a much more reasonable 4 PA per game), and only 0.2 of Arraez's WAR has been accumulated in LF (and -0.3 WAR for Kirilloff and Garlick). https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=6&season=2021&month=42&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=11,d As you can see, Cody's figure is heavily distorted to favor teams who rotate a lot of guys through the spot (like the Twins). It might be interesting when reviewing individual LF options within a team, but it's worthless for comparisons between teams. Our correct LF WAR rank per Fangraphs is 11th in the AL, and 24th in MLB. Twins left fielders to date have performed below replacement level (-0.2 WAR).
  7. Otto von Ballpark

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  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rangers made back-to-back trips to the World Series 10 years ago, very nearly winning one of them, with Levine as assistant GM.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    First pitch delayed to 7:10 PM
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It's official now: Kirilloff to the 10-day IL, Sano activated.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It's official: Kirilloff to the 10-day IL, Sano activated.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    That might be a more accurate number for Buxton anyway, considering his inconsistency and durability issues to date. Assuming he doesn't finish this season with a 1.246 OPS, I don't see him getting a Betts-level contract, although he could still do quite well.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are playing to win this division, you may only need to finish a couple games over .500. And even if you discount the significance of winning a bad division, and you're more concerned about advancing in the playoffs, then the difference between 27-27 and 24-30 or whatever on June 1st isn't all that meaningful either. Obviously we want to win, and the sooner the better, but it's a little early to specify punt criteria like this.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Larnach may not be far off, but his AA experience is 181 PA of 27.6 K% and .390 BABIP too. I don't think he demands immediate evaluation at the MLB level.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to be the thread police, but I think this thread is intended to list transactions, for reference, more than discuss them. If there's a specific move or player that you want to discuss, you could create another thread for it (if one doesn't exist already).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB inflation? Mauer's deal was the fourth-largest ever at the time, by both total value and AAV. The fourth-largest deal now by total value is Tatis Jr. at 13/340; by AAV, it's Rendon at $35 mil per year.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton's professed fondness for Sheboygan brand sausages says otherwise!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm sure Colomé was more valuable than Span at the time, but I don't think you can characterize anyone in this deal as a "free add-on." The Mariners were simply willing to pay a combined $6.45 mil (plus two minor leaguers) for Colomé and Span. I don't think this transaction, or his subsequent trade to Chicago, offers any evidence about Colomé's personality. It's not unusual for non-dominant closers to bounce around a bit once their salaries get high.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Colomé and Span were set to earn about $11.2 mil in salary for the rest of 2018. So even though the Rays sent $4.75 mil to Seattle, they still saved about $6.45 mil by making that trade.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Waddell has been optioned, and Thorpe recalled to start tonight.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Good catch on Colomé, although it was late May (May 25, 2018 to be exact). Colomé was still pretty good back then, but he was making $5 mil, in his first season of non-minimum salary, with increasing arb awards expected in the following two seasons. So the frugal Rays sent him with another salary dump (Denard Span) to Seattle. I'm guessing most pitchers in similar situations are traded (or non-tendered) before the season begins. The Rays don't have a reliever making that much money right now, and neither do the Marlins. I don't know if any other organization would be so money-insensitive to make such a move with an effective reliever at the moment.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    If they refuse the assignment, they don't become a free agent. They are still on the roster and their contract is still in effect. Refusing the assignment just forces the team to do something else, if they want to get rid of them (trade, release, etc.). (Technically, players in that situation do have the separate right to elect free agency, but virtually none of them do so. Maybe it's a consideration if the player is already on a league-minimum salary deal, or if a player is still getting paid after being released by a previous team anyway.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Sadly, signs are pointing to Kirilloff going on the IL due to his wrist:
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