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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    On the other hand, Bauer might be overrated. Fangraphs projects him for 1.6 WAR the rest of the 2019 season, which is actually an improvement on his 2019 performance thus far (just using his 2019 numbers so far would only give 1.2 WAR the rest of the way). Puig and Reyes are projected for 1.2 WAR the rest of the way too, and they are replacing guys who have -0.7 WAR for the season so far. No doubt it will hurt Cleveland's pitching, but even with a replacement level starter, they should be able to make up for it on the offensive side of the ball. And at least they have some wild cards coming back from injury with the potential for above-replacement starting pitching, as opposed to offense where I don't think they had any hope for immediate internal upgrades.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Statcast says Franmil Reyes, in 2019, is: Top 7% in Barrel % Top 5% in Exit Velocity Top 4% in XSLG (Expected SLG) Top 10% in XWOBACON (Expected wOBA on contact) Top 7% in Hard Hit % https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/franmil-reyes-614177?stats=career-r-hitting-mlb His XSLG would be 2nd on the 2019 Twins, behind only Cruz. His XWOBA would be 3rd, behind only Cruz and (somewhat inexplicably) Castro: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/142
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt Chapman is much, much more valuable! But a 125 OPS+ isn't anything to sneeze at, even at DH. Carlos Santana has a career 120 mark, and Encarnacion only had a 122 in his time with Cleveland.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    B-Ref has Reyes at 0.4 WAR, but Fangraphs has him at 1.4. (B-Ref uses DRS for defense, which has him at -10 runs this year, while Fangraphs uses UZR which has him essentially average. In a comparable number of games last year, DRS had him as essentially average, and UZR at -4.4, so maybe 2019's -10 is a bit of an outlier?) I'm not sure where you are getting "Sano-like injury concerns" for Reyes? He's big, I guess, but here are his career games played: 2014: 128 games played in 139 team games 2015: 123 / 128 2016: 130 / 140 2017: 135 / 140 2018: 145 / 162 (MLB rookie season) 2019: 99 / 107 If you think he's a risk to pull something while running in the outfield, note that Reyes has already played 740 career pro games in the outfield, the last 160 in MLB. Sano only lasted 39. (And of course, if Reyes gets time at DH, that helps going forward.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I think so too, although I'm not sure I'd want to do that trade!
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's fair to guess that if we ate Kennedy's salary, we could get him for a modest prospect return: Royals Reportedly “Not Inclined” To Pay Down Salary In Trades https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/royals-trade-rumors-ian-kennedy-danny-duffy-salary.html
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Does Will Smith come with all 3 wishes?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    There have been Diekman, Wood, Phelps, and Martin dealt already... although I guess they're probably close to the Romo class...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    As long as it's not Pretzel Night at Target Field, Levine should be okay.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    "Zach Duke in Reverse" may be a disappointing trade, but could be a great Elvis Costello song! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptnXM6rsxSY
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    To those downgrading Trammell (myself included): Trammell is a 21 year old corner outfielder with 107 wRC+ at AA this season. Kirilloff is a 21 year old corner outfielder / first baseman with a 109 wRC+ at AA this season. Neither one is hitting for power in 2019, and have roughly equal strikeout rates. Kirilloff's advantage is in BABIP, while Trammell's is in walks and stolen bases. Kirilloff obviously was much better in 2018, and we hope this downturn is due to an injury from which he can recover -- but he's up to 287 PA on the season now, including 150 PA (with a 96 wRC+) since his last trip to the DL. If you're not crazy about Trammell, I could see why Kirilloff may not be a real attractive headliner for a blockbuster trade right now either.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    baseballtradevalues.com has the Indians as the winner, and Reds as the loser, but I suspect they have Taylor Trammell overrated. Although that wouldn't really affect the Cleveland side of things, as they neither gave up nor received Trammell. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/real-life-scorecard-tracking-our-values-against-the-2019-summer-trade-deadline/
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't call it a big win for Cleveland, but: Fangraphs projects Puig and Reyes to be worth 1.2 WAR the rest of the season. And they are likely replacing Jake Bauers and Greg Allen, who were projected at 0 or slightly negative WAR the rest of the way (and have combined for -0.7 WAR already this year). On the flip side, Fangraphs projects Trevor Bauer to be worth 1.6 WAR the rest of the season. Even if they replace Bauer with a 0 WAR starter, this could be close to a wash for 2019. 2020 is tougher -- Bauer projects at 3.9 WAR, vs Reyes at 2.4 -- but presumably that is where MLB ready pitching prospects Allen and Moss come into play, plus ~$20 mil salary savings and longer range prospect Nova.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    First response: get a sympathy card for Max Kepler...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually just once off Johan -- the second HR, in the 9th inning, was off of Crain, and proved to be the decisive run. I was at the game. A weekday noon start at the Metrodome. What a bummer of an afternoon.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh, I agree. I didn't mean to suggest a Buxton trade now would be reasonable. Just that the Mets asking about Buxton wouldn't really be notably more *unreasonable* than if the Twins said Lewis and Kirilloff were both off the table.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm guessing talks were nowhere near actual offers, but I think this is the likely track. If the Twins maintained Lewis and Kirilloff were still untouchable, even for Syndergaard, it seems defensible to inquire about Buxton -- not so much to actually acquire him, but just to figure out what the Twins could possibly be thinking.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    It's been mentioned. How would you feel about it, if the Mets only asked about Buxton *after* the Twins said neither Lewis nor Kirilloff were available, as suggested by previous reports? I agree a trade match is unlikely to be found in that situation, but I wouldn't call the Mets side ridiculous in those circumstances.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    This earlier report suggests the Jays may not have required Lewis or Kirilloff, and/or the Twins reticence extended beyond Lewis and Kirilloff: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1154889022000340992?s=20
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    There wasn't anything confusing about the Lowrie and Familia deals, though. They haven't worked out well, which might be a strike against the Mets evaluators, but the motivations behind the deals were fairly clear and sensible. The off-field stuff was a circus, for sure, but to date it hasn't really affected their transactions.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fine, but I strongly suspect the Buxton inquiry came after the Lewis/Kirilloff question. If you want to re-engage, I suspect the Twins just need a different answer to the Lewis/Kirilloff question, rather than a counter to the Buxton thing.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Mets were buyers last offseason, and are still buyers for 2020 and beyond, but have become sellers for 2019 as they have fallen out of the race. Every move they have made is perfectly consistent with that. Buyer/seller doesn't have to be a static, binary thing. Keep in mind they're not "actively shopping" Syndergaard with any kind of urgency -- they are looking for an elite return on him (i.e. Mackenzie Gore, or Lewis/Kirilloff), which again makes sense given their position. Sorry for mentioning the Buxton thing, but a lot of posters seem to be using that as a cue to bash the Mets FO right now.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Have you considered the possibility that asking about Buxton was perhaps the Mets way of giving the Twins "a dose of our own medicine"? It's still quite possible the Twins were unwilling to commit two top prospects to a Syndergaard package, you know. (Especially given the delayed, Twins-sided reporting of this Buxton thing.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    What's the problem with what the Mets are doing, aside from the Cano trade? They extended deGrom through 2022-2024; they seem to have made a good deal for Stroman who has 2020 control; they salary dumped the mediocre Vargas; they are shopping Wheeler who is a pending FA; and they have a high asking price for Syndergaard and his 2.5 years of control, and likely Diaz and Lugo with their 3.5 years control, for whom there is no urgency to deal. Is it because they inquired about Buxton, after the Twins quite possibly said neither Lewis or Kirilloff were on the table for Syndergaard? Look, I would have never hired Brodie as my GM, and I glad he is not the GM of my team, but I think some of this "Mets are crazy/bad/crazybad" talk is rather exaggerated, at this point in time.
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