Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Graterol has to be added to the 40-man by November anyway. And I'm not sure we'll fill our empty spots by September. I agree, it seems unlikely given the shoulder rehab. But maybe they want Graterol to get some September innings anyway, to make up for lost time... -
The 18 year old has been in A ball all season, not rookie leagues. Maybe he's the next Deolis Guerra.
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I mean, we certainly could have beat it. If not Balazovic and Duran, then Graterol plus one of those two, I would think those offers could have topped the Mets. (Not to mention, Lewis or Kirilloff could do it too!) The question is, do you want to beat it by offering that much? I'm not sure, for Stroman. Especially if those prospects could be part of a Syndergaard deal instead. Now, maybe a Syndergaard deal is a long shot at best and we should have grabbed Stroman instead. It's worthy of debate. Hopefully the next few days give us some more data.
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And those guys are all rated at 40 FV or lower at Fangraphs, below the two Mets guys. Obviously we don't exactly how the Jays view all of these guys, but it's not clear-cut that we could have easily beat it.
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It could be competitive but I don't know about "easily beat". Fangraphs has these two at 50 and 40 FV, while both of the Mets guys were 45 FV. MLB Pipeline seems to grade higher, and has them all at 50. (Another factor could be that Thorpe is on the 40-man right now and Duran will need to be added this winter. The older of the Mets guys will need to be added this winter, while the younger one won't be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2022 season. Again, not a deal-breaker or anything, but it could be a factor.)
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Minor doesn't have any track record of this kind of success, he's way out-performing his FIP this year, and his July performance looks like he might be coming back to earth. I'd take him over Leake for sure, though.
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I wouldn't say the Mets got him for almost nothing. For example, those two prospects are 45 FV at Fangraphs. The only Twins pitching prospects at that level or higher are Balazovic (45), Duran (50), and Graterol (50). 2 of those 3 probably beat the Mets offer -- but 2 of those 3 is a fairly steep price for Stroman too!
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I really doubt this. Stroman doesn't have any leverage in the matter. If it's a guy stuck in AAA or a mediocre veteran or something, sure I could see a team doing him a "solid" and sending him to his hometown. But Stroman has too much value for that.
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2 years less, actually. Ray has 1.5, Boyd 3.5.
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Technically and precisely, yes, 0 WAR is replacement, but in reality, we'd expect replacement level player performance to fall within a range. And that range actually ventures further into positive WAR territory than you might think, because guys who are in negative WAR territory tend to get cut. In full-time play, I think of -1 to +1 WAR as a a general replacement level range. Cron has had a few seasons in that range, but is a still a little bit above that. So I agree that I wouldn't call him replacement level -- but one doesn't have to be replacement level to be replaceable either!
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- sergio romo
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Could be, but I could see preferring Stroman, especially at a lower arb salary than Bauer. Not to mention, "a bird in the hand" and all that -- might be worth a little premium now to lock in one rather than hope the other is still around later. Who knows, maybe the Mets already know Cleveland wouldn't take these two prospects for Bauer.
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Moved from the Lynn thread: I agree with the theoretically, but reality might not always align with the theoretical. They likely didn't have the option to only buy 1 year of Stroman. Among other upcoming 2020-2021 free agents, there is Bauer and Robbie Ray. It's questionable whether either would be available this winter either.
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Fangraphs has the two Mets prospects as 45 FV in the Stroman deal. That's the same as Balazovic, although neither one seems as good as Balazovic -- the older one looks like more of a back-end starter, and the younger one is still a little behind Balazovic. How does that look as a premium? Stroman had that bad 2018, but logged 5.2 bWAR in 2017 and is on pace for another 5.0 this year. Worse by fWAR, of course, but on pace for a career high 4.6 this year. How easy is it to get that level of pitcher this winter? (And that's not really rhetorical, I am honestly asking and open to input here!)
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Are Stroman level pitchers available at reasonable cost every offseason in trade? There have been some but it sure doesn't seem like it is necessarily an every offseason type thing. And if a team doesn't forecast any that they like being available in this upcoming offseason, that could justify the premium, no?
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I think it might be a little harder to find them in the offseason than you are giving credit for. Depending on the FA market, sometimes there are very few such pitchers, with a lot of suitors, and they can command $50+ mil or even $100+ mil long term contracts. In that sense, getting a single prime year of such a pitcher might be worth the prospect premium. Especially if you like the specific pitcher -- if the Yankees, Astros, etc. trade for him now, you simply can't acquire that pitcher for 2020 no matter what. Obviously depends on the premium. I guess we have some evidence now with Stroman going to the Mets...
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Possibly, but it seems doubtful that would be the "most likely" explanation. There are lots of PTBNL deals and very few involve recent draftees, no? It could be as simple as Miami being willing to give us 1 from a group of 3 agreed-upon players, and the Twins just wanted a little more time to check them out, and/or monitor their health if hurt, etc. They weren't at the 11th hour of the trade deadline, but I bet the Twins wanted Romo immediately and didn't want to hold the deal up to look at more minor leaguers.
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This is true. But Greinke's list is a little unusual, even in that "leverage" context.
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Is that true for Greinke? I have seen annual no-trade provisions like that before, but I don't know if that is universal or if it applies to the Greinke deal. If it was yearly, it would seem to be nonsensical that Greinke would list Baltimore and Detroit for 2019. "limited no-trade protection: may block trades to 15 clubs (Baltimore, Boston, Cincinnati, Colorado, Detroit, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, Minnesota, NY Yankees, Oakland, Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis, Toronto as of 11/18)"
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I think his point is, if the Twins are on there with the Yankees, Red Sox, etc., it probably has nothing to do with contention status. Thus, the fact that the Twins are contenders in 2019 might not sway him as much as we think.
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FWIW, Greinke's contract also has a $2 mil one-time "assignment bonus" in the event that he is traded.
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I think it's enough of a factor to at least mention it. Also, it's not a full no-trade clause, which further works against the Twins a bit. If it affected every team equally, you could more easily dismiss it, but as it is, the Twins are on the no-trade list but contenders like the Braves, Astros, and Brewers are not. If the Diamondbacks simply want to move him for primarily salary relief, those teams are going to have an easier path to consummating a deal than the Twins.
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Enlow has a below league average K%, ERA, RA9, and FIP so far in the FSL. If we're going to give bonus points when evaluating hitters in that environment, I think you've got to give some demerits to pitchers in that environment too.
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I'm guessing that poster was referring to the Nick Anderson trade from this past winter.
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My gut tells me that the Twins aren't actually interested in acquiring a SP right now. They're just doing their due diligence in advance of offseason negotiations, or in case something changes between now and the deadline (i.e. a starter getting hurt). Some RP will probably be acquired, though.
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Lance Lynn 2019 actually reminds me a bit of Phil Hughes 2014. Career year in the first year of a modest 3 year deal. (Lynn has the better track record as a starter, though, while Hughes had the age advantage.)
