Otto von Ballpark

To be fair, I don't think Riddle was in the lineup yesterday to rest a regular. He was in because Simmons was out and Donaldson was just coming back and probably couldn't play the whole doubleheader.

Our offensive performance was basically equal to that of the Dodgers in 2019. And you already told us to ignore 2020, and 2021 is only two weeks old, so... what's your evidence of this again? I mean, I won't argue with the idea that our roster is not as talented overall as the Dodgers. Perhaps no team is right now. But how about the Rays? As Tom points out, a quick glance suggests they rest regulars more than we do, and have been successful.

Tight hamstring. The info came out in the media between games of the doubleheader.

So what's the OP's specific criticism based on then? Dodgers and Twins top starting position players look similarly rested in 2019 and 2021 too.

No, the 27th man is available for both games today. If the postponed game was from yesterday, the 27th man would have been for game 2 only: If the postponed or suspended game was from the previous day, a "27th player"... can be temporarily added to a club's MLB Active List for the second game only. https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3508

Unless this post is missing an emoji... It's impossible for the home team to give up a lead in extra innings.

Just to be clear, it will count as a day of service time -- but only a day. If he goes back down tomorrow, it just means we'll have to call him up a day later, down the line (if we are aiming to stay below a service-time threshold -- currently an April 22nd or later call-up will get us an extra year of control).

Actually I made a mistake! If a player finishes the season with 20 or fewer days on "optional assignment" to the minors, then those days count toward MLB service time (and the team doesn't lose an option year). This applies to guys already on the 40-man like Kirilloff (and not to guys who haven't been added to the 40-man yet, like Kris Bryant in 2015). With opening day (April 1st) counting as the first day of optional assignment, Kirilloff could potentially get credit for a full season of service time if we call him up before April 22nd.

Blown saves are highly context-dependent. Save opportunities, as well as the margin of lead in those opportunities, are dependent on your team's offense, starting pitching, etc. No one would say Oakland's or PIttsburgh's pen has out-performed the Twins pen this year, even though those teams have zero blown saves compared to the Twins 2. No one would say the Twins pen performance so far is equal to that of Detroit, even though the two teams have an equal number of blown saves. Save percentage isn't much better either. If you want to derive any meaning from these particular stats, the best way is to add saves plus holds (because blown holds also count as blown saves), divided by save opportunities. And also account for raw total opportunities (converting 19 out of 20 is more difficult, and likely a better measure of pen success, than converting 2 out of 2). The Twins are tied for 12th in save + hold percentage, but we're also 4th in total opportunities. That seems to track well with being tied for 6th in bullpen fWAR, and 3rd in bullpen WPA/LI. That's not to say there isn't room for improvement -- 16th in RE24, which is like WPA/LI but based on run expectancy rather that win expectancy.

FWIW, if they promote Kirilloff this Friday April 16, he will finish the 2021 season with no more than 171 days of service time, 1 short of the current threshold for a full season. (Assuming the regular season doesn't somehow extend beyond Oct. 3, of course.) Correction: April 22nd is the first day we could call up Kirilloff, since he's already on the 40-man and finishing the season with 20 or fewer days on optional assignment would mean those days count as MLB service time days.

That's what the Astros did against us in the playoffs last year (with game 1 following an off day too), and it worked for them.

Probably 9-0 in the 9th inning alone, and 12-0 in the 9th inning or later (with the 3 extra inning losses).

Once, when we needed Hoard to get 37 yards, he got us 52: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2DHO8Ewhmo

Would that make him "Delino DeShields III"?

Problem is, Astudillo isn't selective about his contact at all. He swings at everything, so a decent pitcher can pitch to him in a way that's going to prevent him from advancing the runner. Like the playoff game last year -- first pitch swinging, he grounded out to third. And yesterday, he swung at all 3 pitches and popped them all up.

You mean contact? We're tied for the 4th worst (non-pitcher) K rate in baseball so far. But, 129 (non-pitcher) wRC+ is the 4th best too.

The rule for pitchers should be assuming they'd pitch like Jim Deshaies in 1994 over their remaining innings.

Not quite like a coin toss — in the scenario you describe, the visiting team already failed to do something (score in top of inning) and the home team succeeded at something (preventing a run in the top of the inning). It is not a random event that advantages the home team in that scenario, it is their own good play. That’s like saying the advantage shifts to the offense after a lead off triple — of course it does, they did something good! Also while it may seem advantageous to be able to play for 1 run, some of that is neutralized by the defense being able to play for preventing 1 run too. In the top of the 10th, there is a real downside for the home team on defense to issue intentional walks, play the infield in, etc. But those strategies become acceptable— recommended, even — for the visitors playing defense in the bottom of the inning. The home team may still get a slight net advantage but it could be rather small and easily dwarfed by other factors. Would be interesting to see a study on this, if we have enough data.

I think that you're somewhat right on Baddoo vs Garlick -- but it doesn't stop there. It's also Baddoo vs every non-40-man prospect that's ahead of him in the Twins system. At the time of the Rule 5 draft, the Twins were probably expecting Royce Lewis to make a debut in 2021, as well as Larnach, maybe Winder, Sands, and other guys we don't even know about. The Twins don't have to leave 40-man spots open for all of these guys, of course, but they do need to keep some flexibility. Every guy like Baddoo that you add makes the roster less flexible at a high cost -- you basically have to plant him on the 40-man for at least the next year or lose him on waivers. Garlick is no star, but he doesn't have to offer much to offset the cost of rostering Baddoo in that scenario. So leaving off a guy like Baddoo, and challenging other teams to keep him on their 26-man roster for the whole season in Rule 5, is a perfectly understandable choice. Rule 5 is a much more difficult for teams than simply claiming a guy on waivers. Of course, if you absolutely love Baddoo, you can find a way to protect him too. But if he's just another guy with potential, with virtually no shot to play in 2021 and well behind others on the org depth chart, you sometimes have to take a chance with exposing them in Rule 5.

Just to clarify: radio streams are NOT blacked out on MLB.com or in the MLB apps. But they do require a subscription. You can get a full MLB.TV subscription (which include all radio broadcasts as well as out-of-market live video) for free or cheap right now through April 5th if you follow instructions here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21881-free-mlbtv-for-t-mobile-and-sprint-customers/?p=1018060 Otherwise, the radio-only subscription price is $20 for the season. Individual radio stations generally don't stream the games online, though.

Perhaps, but I don't know how big the advantage is. 1. The home team only gets that advantage if they stop the visiting team from plating the same runner in the top of the inning. So it's not a neutral advantage in that scenario. 2. If it happens, the visiting team can tune their strategy 100% toward preventing that one run. Bring in the best strikeout pitcher, adjust defensive positioning, and even intentionally walking a batter to put the double play in order -- things the home team can't or won't necessarily do in the top of the inning.

Vaccinations are recommended before eating the hot dog.

How to watch the Twins in 2021 (With vaccine and hot dog in hand!) This post is about streaming video (those without cable/satellite TV service, aka "cord-cutters"). This post and its discussion will be limited to legal methods. First and foremost, you should know if you are in the Twins TV market or not. This will determine MLB.TV blackout policy. Enter your zip code at this link to check: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/subscribe#blackout-restrictions The Twins local blackout areas are all of Minnesota, Iowa, and both Dakotas, plus parts of east-central Wisconsin. Outside the Twins TV market: Get MLB.TV! You'll only be blacked out of the national TV games and any games where the Twins play the team in your local market. (You can also listen to all of the radio streams, which are not subject to blackout.) MLB.TV is $130 for the season, less 35% if you are student or military -- or better yet, free if you are a T-Mobile or Sprint customer (or know one, or spend $5 to buy from one) and you sign up through April 5th. See details here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21881-free-mlbtv-for-t-mobile-and-sprint-customers/?p=1018060 Inside the Twins TV market: In 2015, there were zero streaming services carrying Fox Sports North (now Bally Sports North). A few years later, there were 5. Last year, we were down to 3. Now there can be only one: The Highlander AT&T TV. For fans in Minnesota, the Dakotas, east-central Wisconsin, and western/nothern Iowa: You can subscribe to AT&T TV to get streaming access to Bally Sports North. You can confirm channel availability by searching with your ZIP code here: https://www.directv.com/DTVAPP/packProg/attLocalChannels.jsp?assetId=att_cms_local_channels You'll need their "Choice" level package or higher, and the monthly no-contract price for this package is $85. There should be no special fees or taxes beyond that, and since there is no contract, you can cancel at any time without penalty. This package also includes MLB Network, ESPN, FS1, and TBS, so you should have access to all nationally broadcast games too. While that is a higher monthly price than other services from previous years, note that AT&T TV allows up to 3 devices to simultaneously sign in and watch outside your home, in addition to up to 20 devices within your home. I think you will also be able to use your AT&T TV login credentials to watch through the Bally Sports website/app when it launches March 31st, which wouldn't count toward your AT&T TV device limits. For fans in the rest of Iowa: While AT&T TV doesn't appear to carry Bally Sports North outside of western/northern Iowa (check your zip code at the link above to make sure), if an AT&T subscriber elsewhere shares the account with you, they can set the game to record on the AT&T cloud DVR and you can watch the recording, in progress, from anywhere. All AT&T TV plans include 20 hours of cloud DVR in the base price. Recording the games on the DVR is probably recommended anyway, as the AT&T TV app doesn't let you pause or rewind live TV on most devices -- but you can do all that while watching a DVR recording, even one in progress. In-Market wildcard: Bally Sports app You can't subscribe directly to it for 2021, but the Bally Sports website and apps, launching March 31st, should allow you to sign in with a supported pay TV login (including AT&T TV) and stream Bally Sports North (as long as you are in a location where that pay TV provider offers Bally Sports North). This is especially useful as pay TV providers limit how many devices/locations can watch simultaneously, but Bally Sports North streams shouldn't count against those limits. Summary Use MLB.TV if you can, share a pay TV login for Bally Sports if you can, or split AT&T TV if you must. Feel free to share your baseball streaming experiences in the comments. Happy streaming! Go Twins!

The 2021 redemption window for this offer is open now through April 5th. If you are a T-Mobile or Sprint customer, just log in to the T-Mobile Tuesdays app to redeem. If you are not a T-Mobile or Sprint customer but you know onw, you could ask them to redeem it on your behalf (it's pretty easy). Or, you can trade a $5 Amazon gift code to one of the people offering their subscriptions in the deal discussion thread over at Slickdeals: https://slickdeals.net/f/14839990-t-mobile-sprint-customers-2021-season-of-mlb-tv-more-free-via-t-mobile-tuesday-app More folks trading their subscriptions at Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/tmobile/comments/mgbnc5/tmobile_tuesday_discussion_for_march_30_2021/?sort=new Just note that your subscription could get cancelled if you use it on a mobile data network other than T-Mobile or Sprint. (But any wifi should be fine.)

It's not easy to maintain offensive value with Cave's K rates either. In 2018-2019, he had ~.360 BABIPs to help prop up his offense. In 2020, his BABIP was still above average at .323 but his overall offensive performance was below average (his BB% and ISO also dropped, and the ISO may be hard to recover to 2019 levels if the ball has changed since then).