Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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But in RA9-WAR, Lynn is only 22nd by this measure, at 4.7. Lynn's had an outstanding season, but his argument for being near the very top is dependent on both FIP and park factors, probably a bit more than I am comfortable with. Still looks plenty valuable, though, even if he's not top 3 or whatever. -
I wonder how much of that was scapegoating, though. It was a disappointing season for the whole team in 2018, and it would be pretty natural to lay that at the feet of newcomers/short-timers. That said, I have no idea if he's a good trade target for us now.
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We were as low as 8 games under .500 in 2006...
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Diekman is indeed 11th among qualified relievers in K/9 at Fangraphs -- but only 21st in K%. His K/9 is inflated a bit by the extra batters he faces (walks).
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I know you are a defender of the Capps trade, but I feel it is my sacred duty to correct this mis-information. Allow myself to quote... myself: Short version: Capps performed well for us in 2010, but was almost entirely a non-factor in the Twins beating the White Sox for the division title that year. As far as Mauer/Ramos, even before the concussion, remember it was "bilateral leg weakness" that sunk Mauer's 2011 season, a season where we had contention aspirations but had to start Butera and sign catchers off the street. The Twins had the worst catcher performance in baseball in 2011 (-3.0 WAA per B-Ref, and even worse WAR) while Ramos did quite well (113 OPS+) in 435 PA for the Nationals in 2011, with zero days on the DL. We were bad enough in 2011 that I don't know if even Ramos would have saved the season, but it clearly was a bigger factor than TR re-signing Capps as you complain about (Capps wasn't great but did manage 1.0 bWAR in 95 IP from 2011-2012).
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Yup, and for what? 1 extra inning out of Odorizzi? It's not like he was going the distance or anything close. We were going to need at least 4-5 innings from our pen anyway, so asking them for 6 wouldn't have been that big of a deal.
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- jake odorizzi
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You'd need another starter Saturday then, and Smeltzer would only be on 2 days rest.
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I noted yesterday that Norfolk is the Orioles AAA affiliate, and they seem to be playing like their parent club. The Norfolk starting pitcher last night has an 0-9 W-L record, with an 8.39 ERA for the season.
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Isn't it a seven man pen today, including Torres? There are 8 relievers on the roster, and the only one truly unavailable would be Smelter, no? Thorpe could even provide some length again, if needed.
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Could be, although Dobnak isn't yet Rule 5 eligible this winter (unlike Smeltzer and Poppen, for example, or even Stashak and Eades who were already eligible).
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That's all fair, except other posters were claiming there were numerous other egregious calls last night, and/or that they all went in the Yankees favor. Those things can be false, but you're right, it still doesn't necessarily excuse the Duffey call.
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It's probably exacerbated by the AAA competition, though. I wasn't sure of Norfolk's parent affiliation, but looking at the score, I guessed Baltimore and I was right. I also guessed they were using older non-prospect pitchers to give up most of those runs, and sure enough, they were both 27 year olds, drafted in the 29th and 34th rounds 5 years ago, with terrible stats at AAA this year after middling stats last year. Not to take away too much from the accomplishments of our AAA hitters, but these are not pitchers they will get to face much in MLB. (Unless we play Baltimore, perhaps )
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Just looking at the pitcher zones on Brooks Baseball, I see the missed call against Duffey, and one against Stewart. But I also see one in Rogers' favor, plus another one that may have been in Parker's favor. For the game (with the caveat that the Ottavino/Green data seems to be missing right now), I see 3 calls against Twins pitchers and 3 in their favor. I see 2 against Yankee pitchers, and zero in their favor*: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?&game=gid_2019_07_23_nyamlb_minmlb_1/&innings=yyyyyyyyy&month=07&day=23&year=2019 * They do show one really wild one that appears to be in the Yankees favor, but I traced it to the first pitch of the Britton-Cruz AB in the 8th and it was actually a swing and foul tip, so it must have been coded incorrectly.
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Brooks Baseball has Chapman's zone as pretty much perfect: (They don't seem to have Ottavino's available yet, and Gameday isn't working for me at the moment either.)
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Anything that involves prospect values is going to be fairly subjective, and that site in particular probably isn't as responsive to recent health/performance trends (although there are limits to how much these guys values are going to shift over smaller samples too). Diaz and Blankenhorn probably deserve a boost from this season, but the other guys are far enough away, or still have enough performance questions, that I don't think these ratings are that far off. As for Vasquez, it's hard to value all those years of control. You might be right to only offer so much, but the Pirates might be right to reject it right now too -- he's controlled for so long, they can probably get a similar return a year from now if they want. Edit to add: I think the fact you can make a Vasquez deal work without Lewis, Kirilloff, or Graterol show the reliever discount, as compared to starters.
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- will smith
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The A's just traded for the shell of Homer Bailey. Montas is out, Manaea and Luzardo are still out. They may need relievers too, but they could also use starters.
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Actually, I am pretty sure the Reds take that package. Castillo is no Trout.
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If Syndergaard's value is down that much, the Mets don't trade him.
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This trade would seem to fail the baseballtradevalues.com test too -- they don't list Colina, but the other 4 guys are about $15 mil short of Vasquez, and I doubt Colina makes up for all that. Subbing Duran (13) for Colina gets it pretty close.
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Remember, the A's once traded Russell for Samardzija. I could likewise see them getting Stroman for the 2019 pennant race, and then flipping him in the offseason.
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I agree it's fair to quibble with some of those values, but in what universe are the Mets trading Syndergaard for a single top 100 prospect who is missing most of the current season with shoulder issues? Keep in mind, Syndergaard is not an expiring contract, nor are the Mets really rebuilding given their roster. But even if you assume the Mets decided to move Syndergaard right now, I don't see how the Padres would fail to top that offer handily, and probably a few other teams too.
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Gray has 3.7 bWAR so far in 2019. Only 2 fWAR, but comparable FIP/xFIP to Berrios. Gray had a down 2018, but that seems to be behind him.
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What news? He pitched at AA yesterday, no?
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The Rockies want to get out of Blackmon's contract while they still can. The same principle doesn't apply to Gray at all.
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The thing about Archer was he was a bit of a project too. ERA+ marks of 100, 103, and 97 leading up to the trade. Career 107. Durable counting stats, some interesting peripherals, and a team-friendly contract, but it shouldn't be that difficult to identify and avoid that profile in trade.
