Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    In spring training 2019, the Kansas City Royals had the best offense by far, batting .293/.376/.497 for a .873 OPS. (The next best team OPS was .835.) During the following regular season, KC non-pitchers batted .247/.310/.402 for a .711 OPS, third-worst in MLB. That same year, LAD, ATL, and BOS ranked 24th, 26th, and 27th in spring training team OPS, respectively. During the regular season, those same clubs ranked 3rd, 6th, and 8th in non-pitcher OPS.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Tell that to this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPWNmtK-SJA But seriously, pitch selectivity is pretty much built in to the modern hitting approach, not necessarily for working walks but just getting the best pitch to drive. And professional hitters aren't casting that approach aside in spring training games like it's batting practice. As of now, the league-wide BB% this spring is 10.2%. The 2020 regular season was 9.2%. Some of that is on pitchers of course, but some is still due to the baseline offensive approach. In 2019, the spring training walk rate was 8.7%, exactly the same at the regular season non-pitcher walk rate. For one player like Kirilloff, or even one team like the Twins, it's such a small sample that I don't think we can draw many conclusions from the stat line alone -- but I also don't know that we can universally dismiss a lack of spring training walks either.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there's also the potential risk of injury. If Kirilloff were to get injured before he was optioned, he'd have to go on the MLB injured list and accumulate MLB service time. That's why prospects on the 40-man roster generally get sent out earlier than other players, as soon as their path to making the team closes. FWIW, the team will gradually be increasing spring at-bats for MLB regulars, but they also want to evaluate other minor leaguers too -- to help determine classification, positions, call-up priority, maybe even next winter's 40-man decisions, etc. With Kirilloff, all of that is pretty much settled already -- he's already on the 40-man and staying there, he'll be assigned to AAA, and he'll likely come up as soon as regular MLB at-bats open up at one of his positions. Sure, giving him continued reps would be nice, but it probably has less marginal net benefit than giving those reps to other guys at the moment.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Update: Still no word about Thorpe, but the Cubs allegedly *have* been granted a 4th option year for Adbert Alzolay: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/adbert-alzolay-has-fourth-minor-league-option.html Alzolay's case looks very similar to Thorpe's. Both debuted stateside in 2013, both used their 3 minor league options in 2018-2020, and both pitched in MLB in 2019-2020. The two players do have a few differences: - Thorpe signed a year earlier (2012) although he didn't pitch in the Twins org that year - Thorpe pitched a bit professionally with the Melbourne Aces in Australia in 2012-2013 while under contract with the Twins (Alzolay was apparently assigned to the Venezuelan winter league in 2014 but I couldn't find any source confirming he actually pitched there, he's not listed in their stats at B-Ref or mlb.com) - Thorpe has a bit more credited service time to date, 137 days vs 50 days per B-Ref None of these differences technically matter in determining a 4th option year by the rule book, but perhaps they might matter to an arbitrator, when deciding how to weigh the shortened 2020 season?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, that's what I mean -- if we use that projection as a template, then there's already an open spot for Thorpe.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    It's likely not Thorpe vs Dobnak. More like Thorpe vs Law, or Thorpe vs Thielbar.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The most recent TD roster projection had this bullpen: Bullpen (9): Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Alex Colome, Jorge Alcala, Hansel Robles, Caleb Thielbar, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak, Shaun Anderson So Thorpe could take Anderson's spot, unless you wanted it for Law. Thielbar has an option year remaining too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    As we await an arbitrator's ruling on a fourth option year for Lewis Thorpe, it sounds like some similar decisions are coming down, not granting the fourth option. In case you missed it, Thorpe and a few other players would be eligible for a fourth option year in 2021 under a strict reading of the rule that a "full season" must be at least 90 days. Usually this rule only applies to rookie league seasons and seasons missed due to injury, but 2020's unusual schedule was technically shorter than 90 days too. So the players and teams have taken these cases to an arbitrator. MLBTR reports that the Nats lost their claim on a fourth option year in 2021 for Erick Fedde, although his situation was a little different than Thorpe's (Fedde had a 4th option for 2020 that the Nats didn't use, keeping him in MLB for the entirety of the shorted 2020 season): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/nationals-rumors-erick-fedde-out-of-options.html But the St. Louis beat writer suggested on Twitter that the same ruling will come down for the Cardinals' Justin Williams (who is in Thorpe's same position):
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    This has been discussed today under the Kirilloff article. Despite the spring training stats so far, it's not clear Broxton is better than Cave at the plate or overall: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/49860-has-alex-kirilloff-played-himself-off-the-opening-day-roster/page-3?do=findComment&comment=1017069 http://twinsdaily.com/topic/49860-has-alex-kirilloff-played-himself-off-the-opening-day-roster/?p=1017080 Also noted in that thread, Broxton doesn't have an opt-out clause in his minor league contract, so he can be assigned to AAA while the Twins continue to collect data on if/how he could potentially help the team, relative to other players.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins official site beat writer said Broxton does *not* have an opt-out at the end of spring training: There's actually a good chance of the Twins being able to hold on to Broxton without breaking camp with him because he doesn't have an opt-out at the end of Spring Training. https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-inbox-can-broxton-make-the-team
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Enlarging the bases also slightly reduces the distance between them, encouraging more of a running game. If you like the excitement of the running game, you should be in favor of this rule change. As it is, offenses are largely ignoring the running game now, preferring instead to move baserunners station to station while batters swing for the fences. Buxton attempted 3 steals for all of 2020, for example. Putting a limit on pick-off throws (combined with larger bases and shorter distances between bases) could encourage more teams/players to run again. Here's what the linked article had to say about the potential effect of these rule changes: When this rule was tested in the Atlantic League in 2019, runners were more ambitious with their leads and more successful with their stolen-base attempts. Conceivably, this change could have an impact on the pitcher-hitter dynamic, as well. If the pitcher is more mindful of the running game, he may throw more fastballs in the zone, leading to more offensive action.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I just went to the Statcast site and saw some spring training games, but when I did a search it returned this warning at the top: Only games played in the spring homes for these teams will return data: ARI, COL, DET, MIA, MIN, NYM, NYY, PHI, PIT, STL, TOR. So yes, there is some public data, but it's limited. There have been some write-ups using spring data from around the league. Broxton gets mentioned in this article: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/new-exit-velocity-highs/ Former Twin prospect Akil Baddoo gets mentioned in this one too: https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-statcast-standouts-in-spring-training
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    But they also won a playoff game in 2004, so the "sweep streak" rests solely on your shoulders!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that in the modern game, and particularly on this team, pinch-running would be the smallest part of the role, by definition. The Twins only pinch-ran 43 times combined over 2019-2020, and they're generally not attempting steals either, so the relative difference between Cave and Broxton as pinch running options is minimal. The difference between their career batting lines, on the other hand, is worth about 7.9 Rbat prorated to 228 PA (which was the 2019 PA total for both of them). On defense, the career gap between Broxton and Cave, prorated to Broxton's 2019 innings, would be about 2.3 UZR or 6.6 DRS. Broxton turns 31 soon, though, which could be a negative factor in his defensive projection going forward? Cave's advantage in ZiPS projections, including defense, is about 8.2 runs (or 0.8 WAR) prorated to 228 PA.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you a superstitious person? Could your website(s) be linked to the curse?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Astudillo has a few games at first this spring (and previously in his career). Blankenhorn has a game there this spring too, although he hadn't played it in the minors in 6 years (since rookie ball). Garver's had a few innings there each season, Rooker has some games there in the minors and college but none yet this spring.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not so sure on that last point. ZiPS projects Broxton at a 55 wRC+, and Cave at a 98. Even if you think Broxton has righted himself after his disastrous 2019, he was only at 85 wRC+ for 2017-2018 -- and Cave was 111 for the two years prior to 2020.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    No, Cave has 1 option year remaining.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    You'd need to clear a 40-man roster spot for Broxton, so you'd lose somebody doing it this way. Also, it was reported at MLB.com that Broxton does *not* have an opt-out at the end of spring training. So the Twins could assign him to AAA and not lose him.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, as I understand, you can sign in to AT&T TV from up to 20 devices at a time, and up to 3 of those devices can be connected from outside your home internet. I think you can also use your AT&T TV credentials through the Fox Sports Go app (which will be rebranded for Bally on March 31st). If so, it wouldn't count toward your AT&T TV device limit (and you wouldn't have to deal with all of the AT&T TV content that you don't need/want). I have heard of two relevant limitations of AT&T TV, but fortunately both have a workaround: 1. When watching live TV channels through the AT&T TV site/apps, you can't pause or rewind them. 2. Your access to live local networks (including Fox/Bally Sports North) is determined by the location you are signing in from, not your home location. (I think this applies to Fox Sports Go too.) The workaround is for someone in the home location to schedule Twins games to record using the AT&T TV cloud DVR. You can watch DVR recordings in progress and they are not location-limited. The $85/month plan includes 20 hours of DVR which should be plenty for this purpose, and I think the oldest recordings are automatically removed to make room for new ones. I've also heard the DVR is a little clunky for sports, so you have to schedule each game individually rather than being able to set a "series record" for them. Also, it doesn't automatically add extra time to games, so you should also schedule whatever shows are listed after each game in case the game runs long.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, it has been studied and the consensus is that spring training stats are not particularly predictive for players or for teams (although I've read there is some correlation in team SB numbers, but as a team strategy decision more than a performance one).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projections: C - CWS 4.3, MIN 2.7 1B - MIN 1.9, CWS 1.6 2B - MIN 2.7, CWS 2.4 SS - MIN 3.4, CWS 2.7 3B - MIN 4.0, CWS 3.2 LF - CWS 3.1, MIN 1.3 CF - MIN 3.7, CWS 3.5 RF - MIN 2.9, CWS 1.3 DH - MIN 2.5, CWS -0.2 In total, MIN 25.2, CWS 21.9 Andrew Vaughn at DH is a real wild card. Fangraphs expects him to play (546 PA) but I doubt he'd be allowed to play that much if he's the -0.8 WAR performer they also project. In short, pretty close! Should be fun.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that he's been particularly great over his career, but Pineda's postseason absence hasn't had much to do with his performance. Here are the only times his teams made the postseason: 2015 - Yankees lost the wild card game. Tanaka started and Pineda wasn't on the roster for that game, but he likely would have been in their 4-man rotation had they advanced. 2017 - Pineda had TJ surgery midseason, thus was unavailable when the Yankees made the playoffs 2019 - suspended, ineligible 2020 - 3rd starter on a team eliminated after just 2 games
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    From the article: This rule will limit pitchers to just two “step offs” or pickoff attempts per plate appearance. On the third attempt, if the runner is not thrown out, the move is ruled a balk and any runners are automatically awarded the next base. So to answer your questions: No, the runner couldn't take a crazy lead after two throws, as the pitcher could still throw over a third time -- the defense would just have to record an out on the play or it would result in a balk. It's per plate appearance, so each throw counts toward the limit, even if the throws go to different bases. And this is specifically pitcher pick-off throws -- catcher pick-off attempts would not be affected.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know. The 2011 team had serious issues with Morneau and Nathan going into the season (and Mauer too), plus the wildcard Nishioka in the lineup. I don't really see comparables on the 2021 club right now, even if the team could potentially under-perform expectations. Just for fun, I went back and looked at our 2011 spring training stats. Check out the spring ERAs for this rotation: Baker 2.66 Blackburn 1.73 Duensing 2.49 Pavano 2.16 Liriano 4.82 (but the best K numbers) Slowey 1.69
×
×
  • Create New...