Otto von Ballpark

I don't think that game truly broke him. It was 134 pitches, pretty evenly distributed over 9 innings. His biggest struggle was the second inning (24 pitches), otherwise he was cruising: The truth is, Johan started breaking as soon as he went to the Mets in 2008. I think something was going on with that shoulder that saw his velocity drop, his release point fluctuate, his K rate drop, etc. He was still a great pitcher so he found a way to be successful for a few more years, but I don't think he ever really addressed the problem, hence the shoulder surgery, the trouble in rehab, and then the second shoulder surgery not long after his return. His outcome wasn't going to be substantially different if he was pulled after 7 innings that day. Not to blame the Mets too much, but he may have benefitted from different coaching during that time, and/or access to the technology available to pitchers today. That said, he deserved better in HOF voting, even if he didn't quite have the foresight to retire that Koufax did.

Best as I can figure, this was the Johan injury timeline: - Immediately after the 2008 season, his first with the Mets, Johan had knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus. It wasn't considered major -- indeed, the tear likely happened before he threw a shutout to end the season -- and he returned for opening day 2009 as expected. - During 2009 spring training, there was talk of tightness in his elbow, attributed to pitching for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic (and maybe pushing himself too hard after the aforementioned knee surgery). It was suggested that he might get pushed back from opening day slightly, but as I mentioned above, he didn't. - By late August 2009, though, the elbow had become more of a concern. After his start on August 20, he had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow (he previously had the same surgery after 2003 with the Twins). This represented his first missed action due to injury since 2001, I think, but again he returned for opening day 2010 as expected. (The Mets were well out of the race at that point in 2009 which perhaps contributed to the decision to not pitch through it any further?) - He made all his starts in 2010 up until September. He left his first September 2010 start after 5 innings due to a pectoral strain, but within a few days, it was announced that he had indeed torn the anterior capsule of his pitching shoulder (near his pectoral muscles, to be fair) and would undergo surgery. At the time, it was hoped he would return in 2011, but shoulder rehab setbacks pushed that back to 2012 and he was never really the same. I won't claim that he suffered no other ailments during this time, but it seems likely that it was the gradual degeneration of his pitching shoulder, and the related efforts to compensate over several years, that broke him down, rather than a "variety of unrelated injuries" comparable to Odorizzi's as of now.

When? He missed the last month of 2009 with bone chips in his elbow -- basically his first missed action in 8 years? -- then his next missed start was September 2010 due to shoulder surgery. If those other injuries you mention came after his shoulder surgery, I think you're missing the forest for the trees. A guy who had shoulder surgery is not at all similar to where Odorizzi is right now, health-wise.

Danny? Johan didn't have anything remotely like a series of "bad luck" injuries until after his first shoulder surgery in 2010 (which was the far greater indicator that his pitching career was winding down).

I know Rich Hill managed blisters for a few years. Kept him from making 30 starts a year but it didn't really knock him out. I think Odorizzi's market was more influenced by 2020 generalities than specific concerns about his health. It's hard to commit a multi-year deal to a pitcher who basically missed the previous season, even if wasn't due to any arm trouble. That's why Stroman took the QO, why Quintana only got 1/8, etc. Odorizzi probably could have had a guaranteed 1 year deal earlier like those other guys, but for whatever reason he was apparently trying to get multiple years. (Stroman still had the QO available, and Quintana just finished a long-term deal, so it was probably easier for them to accept a 1-year deal.) To his credit, Odorizzi did eventually manage to get that multi-year deal (with incentives) from a clear contender -- seemed like he was pretty bummed about not pitching in the 2020 postseason and that may have been another factor for him too. He probably could have signed earlier if he was willing to take this deal from a less competitive club.

I think it was three: he had a sore back in summer camp so he started the season on the IL for that, came back only to take a line drive off the chest which put him on the IL again, and then when he returned from that, he came up with a blister on his finger.

Ervin Santana and Carl Pavano were 35 and 36 years old, respectively, when they broke down. Scott Baker didn't really have a streak of little "bad luck" injuries either -- he only had one single DL stint in his career, 15 days at the beginning of the 2009 season, before the elbow strain in July 2011 which ultimately ended his time as an effective MLB pitcher. Odorizzi is just turning 31, with a sore back, then a line drive off the chest, then a blister last season, where he didn't have a traditional spring training or rehab assignment and was trying to work his way back quickly in a 2-month sprint. I mean, he's still a pitcher, so I wouldn't bet on him staying healthy. But there doesn't seem to be a lot of specific health concern with Odorizzi relative to his peers.

There are actually incentives for both, it appears. Apparently ~$3-4 mil for reaching 30 appearances across 2021-2022, which should be pretty easy as you say, then up to $6.75 mil for innings in 2022 (and they are pretty achievable too). The 3rd year option/buyout somehow goes up with incentives too, not sure how that works.

What's the specific physical health concern with Odorizzi? He seems like one of the guys that was impacted by the weird 2020 conditions, with a couple minor injuries overtaking the abbreviated season. Really just seemed like bad luck, compounded by a lack of proper spring training/rehab, maybe trying to do too much, too fast to get back in a compressed schedule, etc. But as far as I know, his elbow/shoulder are just fine, and he never missed any significant time in his career before 2020. FWIW, it looks like the innings incentives only apply to 2022 so perhaps the Astros and Odorizzi understand some caution may still be in order for 2021.

Yes, I know about $/WAR estimates. That's not quite was I was asking, although it's a decent rule of thumb for estimating long-term FA contracts. I specifically asked about the minimum Buxton could get for his age-29 season. Matt Harvey didn't get $11 mil in 2019 because the Angels though he'd produce 1.4 WAR in his age-30 season. Josh Donaldson didn't get $23 mil from the Braves in 2019 because they thought he'd produce 2.9 WAR. Short-term contracts can be as much about betting on upside potential as anything else. Teams want to *beat* $8 mil per WAR whenever possible, and there's no better way to do that on the FA market than short-term deals for big talents with a few question marks. And Buxton, with his skills and what he's shown through age 26, has a very good chance to be an attractive target for those upside bets entering his age-29 season, even if scuffles through the next two years. It's not hard to imagine that in such a scenario, Buxton could still find a taker for age 29-30 at Bradley Jr prices (2/24). And of course, with plenty of upside to earn a lot more -- both at age 29-30 and guarantees for age 31+ -- if he puts it together for a season before then, rather than just scuffling. Which suggests he's probably not too eager to sell those two seasons, and those two seasons alone, for $30 mil right now.

What do you think "that price" is? It's still a little unclear to me, with that contract structure! Sounds like it could effectively be be close to 2/30, and maybe 3/39 if he exercised the option (which would put it right at the MLBTR predicted contract). Cot's has it listed now as follows: But that might be missing a games pitched incentive too, if this tweet is accurate:

I don't know what criteria Fangraphs uses to put guys on those position lists, but I wouldn't consider it a list of "qualified CF" in any meaningful sense. Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Christian Yelich -- these are not CFers, and the fact that they have more offensive WAR than Bradley Jr. doesn't mean much. MLB CF -- the guys actually playing CF in every lineup -- cumulatively have posted a 98 wRC+ over the past 4 years: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=39&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=mlb&statgroup=2&startDate=2017-03-01&endDate=2020-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=career&sort=-1,1 Over that same time span, Bradley has a 93 wRC+ -- a tick below average, but not much. (FWIW, Pillar has an 88 in that time.) In terms of offensive runs (wRAA), the difference between Bradley and the cumulative MLB CF is about 3.9 runs over the last 4 seasons combined, or about 1.2 runs per 550 PA. That's one-eighth of 1 WAR per season. I don't know how he'll do in 2021, away from Fenway, compared to Pillar, etc., but I think it's fair to characterize Bradley's recent offensive performance as roughly CF average.

Contract details are now summarized at MLBTR: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/astros-to-sign-jake-odorizzi.html

I won't belabor the Bradley pandemic tangent, but I agree that Buxton shouldn't expect less than $12 mil AAV now. I laid out my reasons in the other thread, but yeah, Buxton could probably approach 1/12 or Bradley's 2/24 in free agency at age 29 based on potential alone.

Even a halfway decent / halfway healthy Buxton season in 2022 (or beyond) would warrant $19 mil QO consideration. ZiPS projects him for 2.7 fWAR this year in only 397 PA at 104 wRC+. Another point suggesting he may not be willing to sell his 2023-2024 services for $30 mil combined.

What's the minimum you think Buxton can reasonably expect on the open market for his age 29 season? Even if he continues his recent mix of injuries/inconsistency over the next 2 years, I think some team would bet at least a 1/10 contract on his tools and potential for age 29. They might even repeat it for age 30. Keep in mind, Matt Harvey got $11 mil for his age 30 season, coming off pretty poor/unhealthy age 27-28-29 seasons. $10 mil is not that much for a team to risk on a short-term deal for potential high-end, near-prime-age talent. And Buxton has the added benefit of being a position player rather than a pitcher, meaning missed time is less likely to affect how much he can play the following season. (A pitcher that misses most of a season is often going to be on a innings limit or in the bullpen the following year.) And that's what the Twins have to bid against right now. Buxton could pretty easily make $34+ mil over the next 4 years without ever fulfilling his potential; if he does fulfill his potential in any one of those seasons, he could parlay that into a $19 mil qualifying offer for a single season, and/or an $80+ mil FA contract. I think it would be difficult for the Twins to buy that out for just 4/50 right now.

I don't know what this deal might look like, but I think these estimates are low. Remember that Buxton already has the first $5.13 million guaranteed for this year's salary (assuming no COVID season interruptions). And he's mostly guaranteed another ~$8+ mil for next year in his final trip through arbitration, barring something unexpected. I noted in another thread that those years could pull down the AAV of an extension, but probably not down to 4/40 or 4/44. 4/44 is basically just tacking on 2/30 to those arb deals, for his age 29 and age 30 FA seasons. That seems like too little for Buxton to accept right now. With his all-around potential, I think some teams would still give him 1/10 type deals in FA for age 29 and then age 30, even if his next 2 years aren't that great/healthy. And of course, if he does manage to put it together for a year, he could get $80+ mil on a longer term deal. (And going year-to-year makes it easier for him to cash in on such a season too.) This is one of the harder extensions to try to predict. I think if something happens, it would have to be north of $60 mil, albeit perhaps for a 5 year term rather than your proposed 4. Someone brought up the Hicks deal, which was a little weird (7 year term, signed 1 year before FA), but the total of $70 mil seems like it could be close to Buxton's desired guarantee right now?

No dollars announced yet. Reports say it creatively keeps the Astros under the luxury tax threshold, so maybe they are still hammering out those details:

Keep in mind, Bradley was a free agent, while Buxton is still on arb salaries this year and next. If the deal included/replaced/restructured Buxton's $5.13 mil salary this year, and did the same for a forecasted ~$9 mil arb award for next year, that would pull down the AAV a bit. Also, it's debatable how much the pandemic really affected this winter's FA market overall. In Bradley's case, ZiPS projects him at 1.5 fWAR for 2021, his age-31 season, so I think a 2/24 contract ($8 mil per win) would have been appropriate for him in any recent offseason. MLBTR had only pegged him at 2/16 at the beginning of the offseason. Actually, looking over MLBTR's top 50 FA, the contracts look pretty normal: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html I think the pandemic's affect on the FA market was maybe a bit more targeted/limited -- for example, guys who mostly skipped/missed the 2020 season, like Stroman and Odorizzi. Edit to add: all that said, Buxton is better than Bradley. Buxton's ZiPS forecast is 2.7 fWAR this year in only 397 PA. And while his first FA year carries some uncertainty, being 2 years out still, it will only be his age-29 season, as compared to age-31 for Bradley this year. That should mean Buxton can ask for a higher salary in his FA years, or just give Buxton more incentive to wait and test the open market.

The whole league only hit .245 last year. Bradley is about the same level below league AVG as Gaetti and Brunansky were for the 1980s Twins, and they both made about 4x the league average salary when they were around 30-31. (Bradley's 2021 may only be about 3x the league average.) Hamburgers used to cost 10 cents too.

Technically, Hicks wasn't traded until after 2015, after Buxton already started accumulating service time (and he didn't get 2 full service time years for 2015-2016 -- more like 1 and 1/3 year). And the absence of Hicks wasn't the only reason Buxton was getting a chance in MLB in 2016 -- here's what Buxton did in the upper minors those two seasons: 2015: .305/.367/.500, .867 OPS in 327 PA 2016: .305/.359/.568, .927 OPS in 209 PA He was by no means a finished product, but it was probably enough to earn the MLB roster time that he received at the time. Also, batting average is misleading -- while Buxton was hardly a world-beater in 2016, he paired that low average with enough power to manage a 90 OPS+ -- pretty close to league average offense overall, before factoring in his defense and baserunning.

That is weird -- the 10% projection pegs him at a .349 BABIP, which is way better than the league's usual non-pitcher BABIP of ~.300, and way better than his other confidence level BABIPs (.328 at 50% confidence level, for example). Also, that 10% projection pegs him at a 23.5% K rate, which is almost exactly league average (23.4% in 2020, admittedly up from 22.4% in 2019).

This is a bit misleading, on a couple of counts: - Despite the dingers and MVP votes, 2019 is actually considered Rosario's worst at the plate, overall and relative to league, over the last 4 seasons - Kirilloff's projected 2021 ZiPS WAR doesn't really top Rosario's 2019 fWAR due to offense (they are roughly equal performances offensively), but rather due to defense which you did not mention at all -- Rosario's 2019 was his worst defensively by Fangraphs metrics, pulling down his fWAR I still makes all the sense in the world for the Twins to prefer Kirilloff to Rosario right now, of course, but besting Rosario's worst season of the last 4, primarily on defense, is not a particularly meaningful barometer!

And the only time his bat has been good, he was playing everyday for mediocre teams. I would lean towards passing on him now.

MLB.TV is an out-of-market viewing product, and is priced accordingly. It doesn't make sense to compare that price point to in-market offerings. Granted, there is an argument that Iowa shouldn't be in-market for the Twins, although at the same time, there does seem to be a fair number of Twins fans there! So I wouldn't expect Twins broadcasts to be sold as cheaply in Iowa as in, say, New Mexico, although I agree it would be nice to get them cheaper than they currently are. For a little while, a couple years ago, Iowa actually had an advantage because a few streaming providers (YouTube TV, and before that, Playstation TV) gave you all of the overlapping RSNs. So for the same monthly cost as fans in Minnesota paid to just get FSN, Iowa fans could get FSN, FS Midwest, FS Wisconsin, and the Chicago channels. It actually made sense given the MLB.TV blackouts, and if not for Sinclair, it might still be in effect. Hopefully we'll get back to that someday, or maybe Sinclair will come up with a good direct offering in 2022.