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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The Saturday starter, Plutko, looks like a good match for our Twins. Career 2.4 HR/9 -- 37 HR in only 139.2 innings.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins bullpen sitcom title: "Just the Ten of Us" Theme song, appropriately, "Doin' It the Best I Can" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq74ud4Ra2M
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The other Randy Dobnak descriptions would seem to suggest "sitcom neighbor" rather than sitcom dad. Although I suppose it depends on the sitcom!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    In the time our division lead has gone from 11.5 games to zero, our lead over the 2nd wild card has also dropped from 9.5 to 3.5 games.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Not so sure. With Stashak already replacing Cruz, we still have 7 rested relievers. And only Eades and Romero are eligible to return anyway. Poppen is eligible to return Sunday, I think.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Graterol's not getting to 120 no matter what they do. By the time he got stretched out, the minor league season would almost be over. And regardless of whether he gets to 120 or 80 or whatever, he's going to be on an innings limit next year. So you might as well use him for the best leverage you can.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, it's not so much about Colina's own options or service time, but rather protecting other player assets. Adding Colina to the 40-man now could leave a player like Jax, Blankenhorn, etc. unprotected this winter (or leave us with less flexibility to claim the next Kirby Yates ). I haven't crunched the numbers recently -- maybe we have enough spots to protect everyone we want this winter and still protect Colina. But having just added Dobnak, planning to add Graterol soon, and hopefully bringing back Thorpe and considering Duran, we also have to consider how much opportunity we could even give Colina in MLB right now.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Duran would be the next most obvious candidate, after Graterol. Both of them have to be added to the 40-man after the season anyway. Alcala is in the same boat, but he's been much, much shakier in performance this season. Colina and Balazovic don't have to be added until after 2020. Obviously if we really think they're ready, we can and should add them sooner. But if we're hoping to get lucky, no sense in adding them quite yet.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, the risk is NOT just burning an option. If you think that little of Cave, you can give his 40-man spot to Jax, or Blankenhorn, or some other prospect who needs it this offseason. By unnecessarily giving it to Kirilloff, you're risking losing one of those guys, not just Cave. (Or you're risking not having room to take a flier on the next Kirby Yates, etc.) I'm not saying you have to wait until September 2020 to promote Kirilloff -- I could see him coming into camp next spring fully healthy and in 2018 hitting form, and getting promoted after a few weeks (the Bryant rule) or in June after the super-2 date (like Buxton, etc.). But no sense trying to force it in August 2019, and risk losing other prospects (to say nothing of messing up Kirilloff's own development) when he is pretty clearly not ready at the moment.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    To add to my previous post: The front office did make a roster error with Polanco, but it was back in 2010. They gave him too many active days in rookie league ball so he was Rule 5 eligible a year sooner than he should have been. Thus, he was already taking a 40-man roster spot and burning an option year in 2014, before we even called him up.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco was already required to be on the 40-man roster in 2014 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, which is why he got called up when we needed an infielder for a few days. He was already burning an option regardless of whether we called him up that year or not. It would make far less sense to add Kirilloff to the 40-man roster now, unnecessarily, even before considering whether he might burn an option.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, future stars are less likely to need the option than more marginal guys. Although it's still nice to have, in case you need it. But see my post above -- burning an option isn't even the 1st or 2nd most important consideration with a potential Kirilloff call-up right now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Virtually no downside? Alex Kirilloff at AA Last 7 days: .200/.238/.350, .588 OPS Last 28 days: .263/.278/.347, .626 OPS Last 90 days: .268/.320/.395, .715 OPS At Fangraphs, Steamer projects him at 89 wRC+, virtually the same as Cave's 86. And it's not just a matter of potentially burning an option with Kirilloff in 2019 -- he doesn't have to be protected from Rule 5 until after the 2020 season. Obviously if he's ready we will call him up before then -- but he hardly looks ready right now. Taking that gamble now will leave you with one less 40-man roster spot for the rest of this season and offseason. (And even if you can hide him on the expanded September rosters in 2019 to avoid burning an option this year, you'd almost certainly burn an unnecessary option on him for 2020, although his readiness and the 40-man spot are more important considerations.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, not by RA9 or WAR per B-Ref.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Since June 2nd, when we had an 11.5 game lead: Cleveland has gone 23-6 against truly bad teams (DET, KCR, BAL, TOR). But they've also gone 17-10 against the rest (not all world-beaters, of course, but not truly awful like the aforementioned clubs). The Twins have only managed 17-10 against truly bad teams in the same stretch (DET, SEA, KCR, CHW, MIA), and 13-17 against the rest. (Our trend may be improving vs bad teams, though, 8-2 in our last 10.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, at least that should eliminate the Yankees too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. 13 straight games with the White Sox and Tigers later this month, then another 13 straight with the those two clubs and the Royals to finish out the season, for 26 total. Cleveland only has 16 games left with those clubs.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, Gibson's ERA (4.24) and FIP (4.08) are pretty close, but his RA9 (ERA including unearned runs) is 4.95. That's one of the higher marks on the staff. Plus, contrary to what FIP suggests, B-Ref credits the Twins with slightly above-average defense, and a slight pitcher's park factor too. According to B-Ref, an average pitcher with the same defense/parks/opponents as Gibson would only allow 4.82 RA9. So they think he's a little below average, hence 1.0 bWAR in 23 starts. Fangraphs doesn't have as nice of a breakdown as B-Ref, but presumably they are basing Gibson's 2.5 fWAR on his 4.08 FIP which is indeed better than the AL SP average FIP of 4.66.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    For an MLB pitcher, do we really know? He didn't say he struggled to put his clothes on, like he couldn't do it, just that he felt it while doing so. I imagine that, for a professional pitcher, the morning after pitching, stretching the pitching arm to put on a shirt might feel a little different than a normal day for you or me. I'd say I would trust his judgment, but athletes aren't unbiased. They are human and may not be able to subjectively gauge the effects of different things on their performance, whether it be injuries or centerfield trees.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe Dyson is a "Never Nude"?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know how I missed this quote before: https://www.twincities.com/2019/08/05/sam-dyson-speaks-out-about-struggles-since-joining-twins-at-trade-deadline/ Were they special clothes for performing an "(expletive)" task? Or clothes he really doesn't like? Maybe he doesn't like any clothes -- maybe he should come off the IL and try pitching shirtless.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think we have to take Dyson's word with a grain of salt too. Players aren't really unbiased reporters of such things, especially if they need to explain a poor performance. I'm pretty sure he experienced something recently with his arm, but I don't really know how it compares to other instances in his career, etc.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the tip! You know, I look at those game logs all the time, and never really noticed the "StS" column. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=dysonsa01&t=p&year=2019 If I were you, I'd lead your point with these specific examples, rather than immediately jumping to the absurd/troll accusations. Nick may be incorrect in this instance, but he deserves an opportunity to change his mind before getting berated!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Just curious, when were those streaks? (Honestly just looking for a good tool to easily identify them!)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, it's not a binary issue. His arm didn't fall off in Colorado, he started noticing an issue then. An issue one could expect to get progressively worse. Similar to what you'd expect if a batter tweaked his wrist. Maybe he shakes it off, plays through it, and does all right for a few games -- but it could get worse over time.
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