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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anything I said was incorrect, but we might be misunderstanding each other. Fangraphs may run a bunch of simulations to get those odds -- but the data input to those simulations already contains advantages for the Twins -- namely, more regular season wins so far, and an easier remaining schedule. Those advantages are reflected in both the playoff qualification odds, and the odds of advancement (primarily because we can qualify in a better position to advance as a division champ vs a wild card). So each of those odds is based on the others in the chain -- for example, Fangraphs gives the Tigers a 0% chance to advance to the ALCS, because they are already 0% to make to postseason. But I think the other poster could be talking about an "all else being equal" hypothetical comparison. Hypothetically, if the Tigers could qualify like the Twins hopefully will, their chances for advancement would be higher than zero -- although these Tigers might still be pretty close to 0%. So we can't necessarily use the Fangraphs chained odds to conclude that the Twins are more likely to advance than Cleveland, *all else being equal*. Of course, we can't conclude the opposite either. And in reality, all else isn't equal, and the Twins are currently more likely to win the division, and thus already have an advantage toward potential advancement.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, sorry. I edited it now.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Replying to myself: While Gordon could be moved to the MLB 60-day DL to open up another 40-man spot, it wouldn't be enough to make a non-40-man player eligible for the postseason. Apparently days on the minor league DL don't count toward him serving the minimum 60 days: "However, time spent on a minor league 7-day Injured List or minor league 60-day Injured List does NOT count toward the minimum number of days a player must spend on an MLB Injured List if a player is recalled from an optional assignment or has his contract selected and is added to an MLB 40-man roster prior to being reinstated from a minor league injured list." https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3538
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    We already have a ton of depth and flexibility on our roster, though. At full strength, we have Marwin, Adrianza, Astudillo, Cave, and possibly even Arraez on our bench, collectively capable of playing anywhere in a variety of configurations. Even if multiple regulars go down, there is really no need to dip down into guys like Lewis or Kirilloff (who haven't exactly lit the world on fire at AA). Same on the pitching side -- while Graterol and Alcala are intriguing additions, we have about a bazillion other pitchers already. A ton of relievers, including some promising ones who can't even fit on our 25-man right now (Littell), and several capable of starting too (Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak). I can't see any circumstances where you would need to reach down for Duran coming off a non-dominant AA performance.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Who would you want to see in the postseason that won't already be on the 40-man on August 31st? There is still an open spot to add Graterol; another could be opened fairly easily for Alcala if he warrants it (I am thinking Diplan's or Stewart's spot). I don't really see anybody else -- the minor league season ends Sep. 2nd, so it's not like a guy like Rooker is going to change minds with a dominant September performance. And we're not going to call someone up to make their MLB debut in the postseason either. If someone gets injured *during* the postseason, we can also replace them with a non-roster player who was in the org on August 31st. We don't need any guys on the IL to do that. (Might come in handy for a true catching emergency -- Wilin Rosario? Or maybe if we had a Billy Hamilton pinch runner type who got hurt in the postseason, and we wanted to replace him with an Ian Miller in a similar role.) Edit to add: I suspect getting Astudillo and Wade some MLB reps in September is more important than trying to sneak other guys on the roster. Astudillo will be needed if there is any catcher injury, and Wade may be needed in case of an outfielder injury.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Those odds are all based on each other. If you are less likely to make the playoffs than another team, or less likely to make it as a division champ as opposed to a wild card, your subsequent odds of making the next round will be lower too, even if both teams are technically projected to identical future performance. So the poster could be correct that the Indians could be favored to advance more than the Twins assuming they both enter in equal position/circumstance. That said, I'm not sure what evidence suggests Cleveland would be favored to advance, even if we normalized the other factors (current record/schedule, division vs wild card). I don't know of any source that publishes such odds. It could be someone's opinion, though.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    This article is about "non-roster" guys (meaning non-40-man roster guys). I expect most guys already on the 40-man, like Hildenberger, Smeltzer, Stashak, Littell, etc., will all be recalled.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting question. If they do go forward with the 28 man limit, I wouldn't be surprised if there is an September injury/activation exception added to the option rule.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, players can only be optioned to minor league teams still playing. Thus, a 28 man September roster limit might put more value on minor league teams making the postseason, playing deeper into September. Although I wouldn't be surprised if the 28-man September limit gets changed before implementation. (Likewise with the 3 batter minimum rule.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if Nick Gordon could find himself transferred to the MLB 60-day DL to open up another 40-man spot in September (assuming we fill our currently open spot first, of course). He seems to be the top candidate for such a move -- our other injured guys on the 40-man all seem to be near or hopefully returning (Buxton, Astudillo, Wade, Gonsalves, Poppen).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, Graterol and Alcala both need 40-man spots. A few more spots should open after the season from free agents -- Schoop, Castro, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, Perez (option), Romo. A few may re-sign and need to be re-added to the 40-man roster, of course, but perhaps after the Rule 5 draft in December. So we could protect a guy like Alcala, and later drop a guy like Stewart if necessary. But yeah, I imagine Stewart is definitely near the bubble, along with Diplan.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To add more confusion, they actually could send them back down and still not burn an option year, as long as they spend less than 20 days down. That should prevent Dobnak from burning an option, for example -- added to the 40-man and called up August 8, sent down August 15 -- he could finish the Rochester season (Sep. 2) with only 19 days on optional assignment, then get recalled to MLB on Sep. 3. (Rochester making the playoffs might complicate that, of course!)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I still don't get this take. Rochester needs pitchers too, especially in their own pennant race when we keep calling up their best pitchers, using them, then sending them back when they are unavailable for a few days. It wouldn't shock me if O'Rourke got a cameo in September for the Twins, but it also wouldn't shock me if he was just like every other AAA depth signing either.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    GIven that Moya is still pitching at AA, after a demotion from AAA less than a month ago, I suspect not. 7.63 ERA at Rochester suggests he may not have adjusted to the MLB ball too well!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Would it have been better if their throws were switched?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The throw was very low to the ground. Which implies the catcher would need to widen his stance to field it, as compared to receiving a higher throw. And his stance was widened only as he was moving his whole body in the direction of the throw. All of that seems allowable by the rule. Catchers aren't required to wait for the throw in a seated or kneeling position. Keep in mind, the rule was put in place to protect catchers from collisions. After some initial confusion, I think they've tightened up enforcement over the past few years with that purpose in mind, although such things still aren't 100% consistent or predictable. Which is why it still may have been worth a challenge (although that's precisely what I hate about the challenge system).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a possible interpretation of the written rule, but in application, I don't think that distinction matters too much. Here's the video frame from the recent Twins-Cleveland game, when Adrianza got thrown out at the plate. Obviously Adrianza was much further away at the time, but the Cleveland catcher likely had his foot in the same spot before he caught the ball. In application, I don't think there's any "magic line" that Sano crossed, as compared to Adrianza -- neither was blocked by the foot while the ball was not in the catcher's possession. Here's the rule Brian quoted last night:
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps it should have been challenged, but I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion that it was a violation. Below is the exact moment where the ball enters the catcher's glove (and presumably the catcher gains the full right to place his foot wherever he wants). As you can see, Sano's hand has not yet reached the foot, thus he hasn't been blocked by it yet.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Cave has a kinda-flukey 7 HBP in 134 PA this season. He had only 7 in 559 PA all of last year, and similar or lower rates previously in his career. So unless it is a new skill, he should only have 1-2 HBP at this point in 2019. Taking those HBP out of the equation, his OBP would only be .322 for the season. Also, that stat line relies heavily on a .389 BABIP too, compared to a league rate of .300. He did manage a .363 mark in MLB last year but I am not sure I want to count on either going forward. On a fully healthy roster, there is no regular/platoon starting spot for Cave in this outfield.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    They changed it a few years ago, I think. Makes sense because you can actually change your 25 man roster between postseason series now too. If you want to add a guy who was in your org, but not on the 40-man as of Aug. 31st, you need to get the injury exception thing.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    All you need to do, to make them eligible for the postseason without any injury tricks, is get them on the 40-man roster before midnight August 31st. You can even add them to the 40-man the evening of August 31st, and promote them to MLB the next morning (Sep. 1st) once rosters have expanded. Or let them stay down a couple days longer, if you want. Either way, I'd still call that a "September call-up" and they'd be eligible for the postseason.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. "Instructional league" they call it. It's not an official minor league rehab assignment but it serves the same purpose. Off the top of my head, I recall that Nolasco did it in September 2015, before being activated and pitching at the very end of the MLB season.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I assume most baseball radar guns would produce a decimal reading, but the scoreboard could simply drop the decimal part. So having a 103.8 value doesn't necessarily imply it was from Trackman. If they connected the new Trackman system to the stadium scoreboard, should they have programmed it to round 103.8 up to 104? Not trying to be conspiratorial, just curious about the setup. Obviously he is throwing hard, no one disputes that!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Can anyone comment on the other radar gun readings from this game? Those stadium ones aren't always the most accurate.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    They can add him to the 40-man roster the evening of August 31st, and promote him to MLB the morning of Sep. 1st with expanded rosters. Then he's eligible for postseason rosters with no hoops, and we don't need to make any 25-man roster moves to accommodate him either. That's still technically considered as a 9/1 callup too, since the roster move would come after the August 31st games (9/1 would be his first day/game on the 40-man roster).
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