Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Haven't they done that with all of the AAA shuttle guys, except Littell and his relief conversion? Thorpe's only had one game with more than 42 pitches in the last 30 days, though, and that one was only 69 pitches, so he might need some further stretching before he could start in MLB again? But I guess most of our MLB starters only go ~85 pitches anyway... -
In fairness, Wiel was "sneaky good" (albeit on the old side) at A, A+, and AA from 2016-2018 -- although the AA one was fueled by a .377 BABIP. But he hasn't been good, or sneaky good, at AAA in 2019. As a silver lining, though, this likely means he can take another shot at Rochester next year without costing us a 40-man spot.
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It's even worse if you look at how Wiel compares in wRC+ to the non-prospects, min. 50 PA: De Aza 153 Willin Rosario 119 (catcher) Maggi 117 (infielder) Kerrigan 106 (sent back to AA) Telis 104 (catcher) Sawyer 103 (catcher) Valdespin 99 (released) Wiel 98 Cesar 93 (released) Andreoli 78 (traded) Torreyes 76 Rosales 26 (traded) Schales 9 (inactive list)
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- gabriel maciel
- dakota chalmers
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Are we talking about the same Zander Wiel? He's got a 98 wRC+ in AAA this year, behind a whole host of marginal guys. The .814 OPS looks solid, but the league OPS is .790. He's not even really trending any better -- yes, his August OPS is .853, but it was only .778 before his triple yesterday. July was his worst month at .727. His K% has been consistently around 30% all season, compared to a league rate of 22.8%. He's a 35% in August, with a paltry 5% BB%. As a 26 year old right-handed first baseman, this doesn't seem impressive in the least. Edit: Coke to jkcarew -- should have refreshed the page before posting!
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Cleveland apparently had a Diaz-level baserunning mistake too: After hitting the game-tying double in the bottom of the 9th, Lindor was on 2nd base with only 1 out, Oscar Mercado at the plate and recent hero Carlos Santana on deck. And Lindor was caught stealing at third base for the 2nd out of the inning! https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2019/2019-08/13/4f78187f-eb1c95a9-02d44a93-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4
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- minnesota twins
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This under-sells Vlad Jr.'s case. He's got 2.0 bWAR to contrast with that lower fWAR. He's also been heating up -- he only has a 115 wRC+ on the season, but that figure is at 151 since the all-star break and 185 in August. He probably can't catch Yordan Alvarez in that department, but he may very well catch up to Arraez's 132 wRC+ by the end of the season.
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As far as I can tell, Fangraphs is incorrect on the rookie status of both Vogelbach and Tauchman -- both appear to have at least 45 days of non-September MLB service entering this season, so you are right to ignore them. Lowe is definitely a candidate, though. I'd venture to say he's very similar to Arraez: wRC+/OPS+, position, name recognition (or lack thereof), on a contending team. Lowe has an advantage in playing time, although he's currently on the IL. If he doesn't return in a timely manner, or his performance suffers after he returns, it could close the gap between them quite a bit.
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- luis arraez
- vladimir guerrero jr.
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I'd guess the longer/deeper his slump, the less we need to worry about losing him in the Rule 5 draft.
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- andriu marin
- gabe snyder
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This is a good illustration of why you should use K% instead of K/9. By K/9 in 2017, his rate only dropped by 0.2 in the second half, or 2 strikeouts over those 74.1 innings. But because he gave up more hits and walks (meaning, more batters faced without recording outs/innings, thus not increasing the denominator of K/9), his K% dropped by 2.2, or 7 strikeouts over those 74.1 innings. Likewise, K/9 overstates his strikeout gains in the 2nd half of 2018. By K/9 he had 10 extra strikeouts, but by K% he had only 3.5. In 2019 so far, it's closer because his WHIPs are closer. By K/9 he's gained 7.7 extra strikeouts, while by K% it's 6.7.
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I don't know about that -- I kind of like multi-inning outings from a reliever when possible, as opposed to a series of relievers on shorter stints where one of them could be throwing poorly that day. I'd say we could still use Rogers for multiple innings, but to do so judiciously -- probably no more doing that with 3 run leads, certainly no more using him the next day, etc.
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- taylor rogers
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I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke was part of our 40 man roster in September as a strict LOOGY, but AAA needs reinforcements right now too, especially with how the MLB club has been cycling through their AAA options. Fortunately for us, it looks like Rochester will not qualify for the postseason, and their regular season ends Sep. 2, so that up-and-down cycle should end soon.
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What if it's not Wells vs one of those prospects, though? What if it is Wells vs Stewart? Or Wells vs Astudillo? Or Wells vs Trevor May's last arbitration year? Due to his surgery recovery, Wells could also be stashed on the 60-day DL as early as February. So it's possible he could even temporarily hold a spot that eventually goes to a late free agent signing. (Of course, the 60-day DL and resulting rehab assignment also makes him easier to stash as a Rule 5 pick too.)
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Fangraphs weighs in: "Martín Pérez’s Cutter is No Longer Cutting It" https://blogs.fangraphs.com/martin-perezs-cutter-is-no-longer-cutting-it/
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Actually still 2.5 ahead of the Rays. But yeah, the Rays and A's are two pretty good teams themselves and could/should put up a fight. Although Fangraphs only pegs the Rays finishing with 93 wins, and the A's with 90. (Twins projected for 97 right now.)
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I wouldn't assume he's K-Rod or Chapman either, but if he's hitting 101 MPH right now, I'd be more confident in him than Romero who topped out at 98.
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Tyler Wells just had TJ surgery in May, so there's really nothing to hear about his recovery until next spring at the earliest. He is Rule 5 eligible this winter, though, so we'll hear about him in November when that 40-man roster decision is due. I suspect we may have to protect him.
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No one was saying that in October 2003. Romero had just been battered to the tune of a .929 OPS vs RHB that season, on his way to a 5.00 ERA, and Rincon turned in a pedestrian 3.68 ERA with 4.0 BB/9 and only 6.6 K/9 in average leverage use, in his best MLB season to date. 2002 Romero was great, as was 2004 Rincon, but Gardy turning to them in that spot in 2003 would have been like TK going with Smithson or Portugal over Straker in the 1987 postseason.
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The Straker comment makes sense -- we needed a third starter, and he was clearly the only viable starter beyond our top 2 that season. But Hawkins had the top game-entering leverage index on the staff in 2003. Pitching him in a tight spot in the 7th inning, even after pitching the day before, certainly "helped get them there" more than Rincon and his average leverage index that season. (Rincon wound up walking 4 Yankees in his 2.1 lower leverage innings anyway, so I sort of doubt he would have fared much better in Latroy's spot in game 2.) Romero's leverage index was higher than Rincon's, but of course he was a lefty specialist -- bringing him in to face Soriano and then Jeter with a runner in scoring position and only 1 out was certainly not part of what "helped get them there". (FWIW, Romero came on after Hawkins in game 2 and gave up a single anyway, to a LHB no less, an outcome which would have lost the game just the same.)
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Looking at the replay, I wonder if Naquin should have been playing deeper, so he could have had a play on that ball? It wasn't a high fly, but it was far from a line drive either, and it bounced before the wall. As you note, the runner on first was so important, Cleveland should have been playing its best "no doubles" defense, and Marwin was batting RH and Hand was consistently pitching him inside, so it would make sense to have the left fielder playing as deep as possible, to be able to make a play on exactly this type of hit behind him. A lot of factors involved! I totally understand the criticism of the send with only 1 out and the game already tied, but we were sure battering them around that inning -- it was frankly a bit surprising that all of Naquin, Lindor, and the catcher made solid plays.
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It's not as if Gardy had a lot of options that year though, especially after Johan exited early in game 1. Rincon wasn't that good yet, and Romero had a tough year. That pen was basically Hawkins and Guardado (and Guardado gave up runs in both of his appearances too).
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I don't disagree, but take it up with this article's author, who wrote 20.
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Team LOB was 10, but if you add up the individual player LOB, I think you get 20, as a few were left on by more than 1 guy.
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If you read the whole article, it says Carrasco "has thrown a few bullpen sessions already, he didn't bounce back well after the last few times. This will be a resumption of that process."
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Carrasco has been throwing bullpens, apparently, but still not clear if he will return this season: https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-carrasco-bullpen-sessions-for-indians There's also Salazar, but he's very much a wild card too (and he was only an iffy starter the last time he was healthy too, in 2017).
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Actually, by my count, the Twins have been below .500 since June 2nd vs. non-awful teams, 13-18. While Cleveland has been 18-10 vs non-awful teams. That difference is over half of the 11.5 game swing in the standings. (And the other almost-half could be characterized either as Cleveland beating up on awful teams at 23-6, or as the Twins underperforming vs awful teams at 17-10.)
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