Otto von Ballpark

You mean Mariano Rivera probably doesn't lie awake regretting the Jason Kubel grand slam game?

I'm not sure what you are arguing. No one thinks Shoemaker is any kind of star but he was a career 103 ERA+ pitcher entering this season, and that figure is still 99 even if you remove 2019. That's a league average starting pitcher. Now he may be cooked, or he may need a different role to regain that effectiveness.

Don't think it mattered in 2011? We didn't really have any good tradable assets at the time anyway. The White Sox traded guys with a lot of affordable control (and Sale was seen as an elite SP too). If the Twins returns would be notably less, I'm less sure that it's worth it to trade them.

Baseball Trade Values pegs Jones at $11.9 mil median value, and Cruz at $2.5 mil, so probably not. We'd have to eat Cruz's full salary right now to even make it possible by those valuations, and I'm not sure the Rays would really be interested in basically selling a good prospect like that.

How is that even possible after a 9 run first inning? I guess the big 3 run HR was after the lineup turned over. The Jays used Shoemaker for an effective 3 inning, 35 pitch start in their playoff opener last year. Admittedly he had recently missed a month of game action due to injury so he wasn't going to pitch deep into that game, but they probably would have pushed him beyond 35 pitches unless they were intentionally limiting his exposure.

I know long relief guys are out of style, but I think the Twins benefit from one right now, given the current state of the staff. If Jax isn't needed much tonight behind Pineda, then I think you potentially could see him take Shoemaker's next turn. Or Shoemaker could have a very short leash, almost an opener type situation with Jax following. I endorse Jax getting some innings over the next week. But there's probably still room for Shoemaker innings too. And I didn't mean to imply that Maeda would immediately return after one rehab start -- but the outcome of that rehab start, and Pineda's start tonight, could give the Twins a better idea of their near future SP needs.

Yankees are only 3-10 in their last 13, but yes, I am sure they hope the Twins are the antidote to their slump. Due to the circumstances of 2020, Twins have not faced the Yankees since the 2019 ALDS.

Topic title reminds me, let's be careful about how we describe the Twins 2021 season so far:

Interesting that you bring up Scherzer -- I was just thinking, the Twins may not be likely to come back 2006-style right now, but if they can claw back at their deficit over the next month, could they make a splash and trade for Scherzer and a reliever? The Nationals (3.3%) currently have lower playoff odds than we do (4.0%) at Fangraphs.

Jax is now on the 40-man, having been added after Shoemaker's most recent start, but if you start Jax right now, then you need someone else in long relief, hence another 40-man move would need to be made. (Stashak is the only healthy pitcher left on the 40-man who's not Duran or Balazovic, and he's not a long reliever and in fact may have some of his own issues with pitching mechanics right now, not a good fit for the long relief role.) Barnes could easily be added in Shoemaker's spot, but if Maeda is back in a week or two, then you've had very little opportunity to evaluate Barnes but he's going to occupy a 40-man spot for the foreseeable future, making it more difficult to claim or evaluate other guys (someone like Andrew Vasquez perhaps, who may still have some fine-tuning to do at AAA to earn a promotion but would be a minor league free agent at the end of the season if not promoted). Rule 5 is a much more difficult threshold for losing a guy than simple waivers or minor league free agency. This FO has their Rule 5 mistakes (i.e. Nick Anderson) but Barnes doesn't fit that profile, so I trust that if Barnes doesn't earn a spot by season's end, he probably won't be claimed/lost. Ultimately we're quibbling about a week or two in a long season. 3.75 months of extended auditions are not a meaningfully more significant opportunity than 3.25-3.5 months. Heck, depending on how Pineda does tonight and Maeda in his rehab start tomorrow, I wouldn't be shocked if Shoemaker doesn't start Friday and has made his last start as a Twin. But given where we are in the season, and the current state of the roster, I understand keeping things flexible over the next few days.

Duran and Balazovic are top 100 prospects but both got hurt in camp. Not much you can do about that in March, but having 6 SP above them including Dobnak plus alternatives like Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Ober was decent depth. Of course, Thorpe and Smeltzer are on the IL now too. No org has enough "depth" to cover the amount of injury and ineffectiveness we've seen so far, but at least Duran and Balazovic are getting back into action.

Teams generally don't make roster decisions with the justification "why not?". Guys like Jax and Barnes may turn out to be useful, but throwing them onto the roster just because you're disappointed in Shoemaker is generally poor roster management, and you may wind up losing them (or other potentially useful players) before they are ready to contribute. Ober has looked intriguing in a couple spot starts, Jax is on the 40-man now, Pineda will test his forearm again in a start tomorrow, Maeda has a rehab start Wednesday, Duran is over 80 pitches, and Balazovic is back. Shoemaker's not getting cut today but it is clear he has a very finite leash. If the season is really as lost as you say it is, there will be plenty of opportunities for other guys over the next 4 months.

Mancini is 29 years old already, and like Buxton and Berrios he is set to become a free agent after 2022. I doubt the O's expect to be competitive in that time frame, their top prospects aren't even in AAA yet. Did you mean Mullins? He's only 26 and won't even be arb eligible until after 2022, FA after 2025. Means is a better asset too -- 28 but not a FA until after 2024.

This was further discussed/blamed in an article here last month:

It's called "pixel art" and it's indeed an intentional choice. I enjoy the pixel art at Target Field:

Historically, Oakland seems like a good fit for Cruz -- they had the final seasons of sluggers like Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza. But Moreland hasn't been terrible, with a 105 wRC+ -- and Oakland has no place to play him other than DH, with Olson locked in a 1B. (Lowrie has a 107 wRC+ overall too, which is not bad) If Ramon Laureano is out for awhile, and Buxton really does return soon, I wonder if Oakland would make a big splash for Buxton? They've made some big trades in the past, for Holliday and Samardzija. And they'd have the option to flip Buxton in the offseason.

Too bad TBD is scheduled to throw for the Yankees that day. Could be Taillon or King, and Deivi Garcia would be eligible to be recalled by then too.

That might be Nick's wishful thinking. No Twins SP have been announced beyond the Yankees series. After their public comments about Shoemaker, and their caution with both Ober and Pineda this past weekend, I would be surprised if they didn't start Shoemaker on Friday.

That's fair. Per Baseball Trade Values, Buxton (37.5) would be close to Brujan (41.1) straight up, although any valuation/projection for Buxton is going to have a crazy-ton of variance. Berrios is at 29.7.

Brujan isn't even remotely possible as a target. He's the #22 prospect in MLB, per Fangraphs. Baseball Trade Values isn't gospel, but it pegs his median trade value at +41, compared to -18 (that's negative 18) for Sano. I don't think there's anything that Sano could do in less than 2 months to make up that gap, even if the Twins ate the full salary. Mancini from BAL would be a better target. Trade value +20, Tampa could probably get him without giving up Brujan too. (They could also just buy a 1B glove for Brujan, he has played just about everywhere else so far at AAA.)

Tampa's biggest weakness right now is not at DH or in the outfield (again, depending on how one views Kiermaier's CF defense relative to the other OF). LHB 1B Ji-Man Choi is on the IL again, with an uncertain timeline for returning. RHB Yandy Diaz isn't bad, but his OBP-and-little-else batting line may not be a good everyday option there. And they already traded Tsutsugo. Tampa's top prospects are SS Franco and INF/OF Brujan, which can help just about everywhere except 1B. Unless Cruz starts hitting like 2019-2020 again, I'd guess that Tampa would be better off getting a bat that can play 1B rather than an exclusive DH. Trey Mancini could be an excellent target, with a cheaper 2021 salary and 2022 control too. If KC decides to sell, Santana could be a target. Looks like SF may actually stick in the race, otherwise Belt would be in play. Cheaper targets would be Aguilar from MIA, etc.

I know there can be a "DH penalty" where players hit worse in that spot than when playing the field, but DH-only batting splits aren't particularly useful, especially in such small samples. I'm not sure how this makes sense. Cruz only enhances the Tampa lineup if Meadows replaces a weak outfielder. And depending on how one views Kiermaier's CF defense relative to their other 3 outfielders, I'm not sure this would net much benefit for them.

Maeda is still on the shelf and could have a setback in rehab, and Pineda's health is a bit uncertain at the moment too. Neither Jax or Barnes is even a top-30 org prospect. The only reason even one of them was added to the 40-man is because our bullpen needs help right now. For all of his struggles, Shoemaker still has a better rest-of-season ZiPS ERA/FIP than either Jax or Barnes. I understand that we don't have any confidence in Shoemaker. But I think the DFA threshold should be higher than just that -- you have to consider your whole roster and alternatives. And at the moment, I think it's defensible for the Twins to try holding on to Shoemaker just a little bit longer, until a few other roster situations are resolved.

7-6, actually! We started 12 games under .500 and finished 11 games under .500.

Jorge Polanco (S) DH Alex Kirilloff (L) RF Miguel Sano (R) 1B Trevor Larnach (L) LF Willians Astudillo (R) 3B Nick Gordon (L) 2B Ryan Jeffers (R) C Kyle Garlick (R) CF Andrelton Simmons (R) SS Whit Merrifield (R) 2B Carlos Santana (S) 1B Andrew Benintendi (L) LF Salvador Perez (R) DH Kelvin Gutierrez (R) 3B Edward Olivares (R) RF Jarrod Dyson (L) CF Cam Gallagher (R) C Nicky Lopez (L) SS