Otto von Ballpark

Thanks for this article. Martinez is ranked 93rd overall at Fangraphs and 96th by BA. He's #6 in Toronto's system at MLB.com but the first 5 guys are all top 100 overall, so he's likely just outside it himself. Here are the median value estimates from BaseballTradeValues.com: Pineda: 2.3 TOR SS Orelvis Martinez: 26.6 ATL LHP Jasseel De La Cruz: 2.9 CHC RHP Kohl Franklin: 3.6 The Atlanta and Chicago returns seem pretty accurate. There may not be any elite players traded this summer but there should be a decent quantity of guys available similar to Pineda, so I can't imagine he'd draw a bid like Martinez.

LHP Joe Beimel, brief Twin way back in 2004, has signed a minor league deal with the Padres at age 44.

I guess “Baserunner Out Advancing” is basically the same as a runner getting thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double?

I think I found the relevant scoring rule (this same file was at MLB.com too but the link wasn't working): https://foulballz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/10_the_official_scorer.pdf Regarding "fielder's choice", the summary I saw omitted some important context (emphasis mine):

I appreciate that fielder’s choice may not be the technical term to apply, but this play was not scored as a caught stealing at MLB.com or Baseball Reference or anywhere else I can find. B-R says “Baserunner Out Advancing”.

That was me. Wasn’t just because of Chapman though — our 6-7-8 hitters were due up in the 9th in the Jax game, not 1-2-3 like last night. Also, we had already used 4 relievers in the Jax game, including Rogers and Farrell, two of our best at the moment. Even if you manage to come back from down 2 and force a tie, you have less bullpen ammunition if it goes to extras. And it cuts both ways — last night, Robles retired Judge, Torres, and Stanton (2-3-4) in the top of the 9th just before our comeback against Chapman. If you use Robles in the earlier game, that could have impacted his availability or effectiveness last night (Yankees hadn’t seen him yet this year).

It is scored as a fielder’s choice, actually, not a caught stealing (unless the runner was attempting to advance before the ball got away from the catcher). You are correct that no WP or PB is scored.

Baker’s arm trouble had manifested itself before August, although he did return for a few August starts before getting shut down: “July 17, 2011: Minnesota Twins placed RHP Scott Baker on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to July 7, 2011. Right flexor strain.” He had previously left a start early with elbow pain in September 2010 and missed a couple rotation turns at that time (and was in the bullpen for the postseason). Losing Cuddyer in FA actually gave us the #32 pick in the 2012 draft which turned into Berrios. I think it was the last year for the old type A/B free agent compensation system, which was great for teams losing mid-tier free agents.

The higher price point makes sense here though. First of all, it is regional — Bally is only in 21 markets I think? While HBO can market nationally (and internationally). Presumably, MLBTV will still be selling the games everywhere else too. Second, sports are seasonal and require live (or near live) viewing — for example, a baseball-only fan would never subscribe to this service for at least 5 months out of the year. Third, sport interest is tied to performance. Team starts slow, subscriptions will drop. A lot of casual fans may not bother subscribing until later in the season, and only if their team is competitive. So it doesn’t surprise me that HBO could be cheaper than BSN.

MiLB.TV is still available for $20 here (less potential student/military discount) as far as I can tell: http://www.milb.tv/yearlydiscount I think this deal has been floating around for a few years. I suspect MiLB.TV isn't much of a moneymaker. (Heck, I don't think MLB.TV subscriptions are either.)

To add a further twist: our 2016 team could have finished with 2.3 more wins, if we replaced Berrios' 14 starts with the team's non-Berrios record.

This is interesting to think about. There is some selection bias in these numbers. First of all, like another poster said, Buxton has the "good fortune" of not playing many games with the 2021 team so far, which weighs this sample toward our far better seasons of 2019 and 2020. But there is no Buxton W-L magic in 2021 thus far. Another factor is when Buxton comes off the bench. In 2019-2020, the Twins were 13-0 when Buxton entered a game off the bench! But when you think about it, it makes sense -- if Buxton is getting a day off from the starting lineup, they're probably not going to bring him in except to protect a lead. (The streak ended in 2021, of course -- we're 0-1 with Buxton coming off the bench this year.) Probably even more so for Buxton compared to other players because of his excellence as a defensive replacement. Buxton also misses more time than other players, so his sample of games started is smaller and thus more prone to variance, I suspect? The guy more likely to have IL stints is more likely to have missed any given stretch of games -- could be hot streaks, could be cold streaks, but the smaller the sample, the less likely any imbalance is going to even out. Here's our 2019-2020 win-pace when various players were in the starting lineup: Buxton 107.5 Garver 105.7 Gonzalez 102.9 Rosario 102.2 Polanco 100.6 Cave 99.5 Arraez 98.9 Kepler 98.3 Cruz 97.5 Sano 94.9 No doubt Buxton is a good player and an important part of the team, and I'd definitely like our chances with him in our lineup over Sano, but our team had a 100.0 win pace over those two seasons, so I'm not sure if these numbers really represent much other than mostly random variation around that number?

I think the .295 SLG is a typo -- should be .395 which would make the .660 OPS correct.

It appears that our 9th inning outburst against Yankees legend Brooks Kriske yesterday has boosted that wRC+ all the way to 40. FYI, if you use the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard, you can click the "MLB" split and set the filter so you get the Twins opponents collective batting line in particular situations. That way, you can compare the Twins and their opponents on the same scale. So in this case, the Twins now have a 40 wRC+ in the 9th inning and beyond -- but the Twins have allowed a 141 wRC+ in those innings! https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=139,52,53&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=mlb&statgroup=2&startDate=2021-03-01&endDate=2021-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&sort=-1,1 I think the .295 is a typo here -- should be .395? Technically Fangraphs has the line at .179/.264/.393 for a .657 OPS and 79 wRC+. (And they had zero high-leverage PAs last night, so it doesn't matter that you published this article before the game.) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=72,203&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=mlb&statgroup=2&startDate=2021-03-01&endDate=2021-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&sort=-1,1 Looking at the same split for Twins opponents, we've allowed a .283/.324/.416, .741 OPS, 102 wRC+ line in high leverage situations.

You're not incorrect in that there was some controversy about taking Dobnak out so early in that game. I may have allowed him to try getting another DP grounder, or gone right to someone like Rogers. Just found a recap video -- the 3 hits they show off Dobnak (double and single in the first, and a single in the third that chased him) were all hit pretty hard. Although nothing compared to what Duffey allowed! Baseball Savant should have the exit velocities too but I don't want to bum anybody out futher. https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2019/2019-10/05/b7e1eb02-3f25953f-0b387047-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4

You misremembered a bit. Dobnak was pulled in his playoff start with *nobody out* and the bases loaded in the third. “Hit a ball hard” or not (I don’t recall that part, but there was a leadoff double in the 1st), Dobnak’s line was 2 IP (so 6 outs), 6 hits, and 2 BB, and no strikeouts. I didn’t like the decision to bring in Duffey again so soon after the Yankees saw him in game 1, but Dobnak’s performance was not particularly effective either, even if it was better than last night.

Simmons's offensive production has been trending down, and subjectively, it doesn't look like he's taking good approaches at the plate. I'd leave him near the bottom.

Welcome to Twins Daily! Jax came in for the 9th, not the 8th, and with a 2 run lead and only 3 more outs left, the generic Yankees win probability at that point was 93%. And that doesn't factor in that the Twins 6-7-8 hitters were due up in the 9th, or that Chapman would have come in (rather than Wandy Peralta) if the deficit had still been 2 runs. Opposing batters are only hitting .097/.214/.194 against Chapman this year, for an OPS of .409. Would have been nice to keep it close and make the Yankees use Chapman, of course, but Jax getting his feet wet against the weaker part of the Yankees order could outweigh that. At least it gave us some information about Jax's readiness.

Fangraphs analyzed this a few days ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-are-running-out-of-time/

I don't think Buxton will be coming back today -- he DH'ed last night, and the plan was for him to play CF for St. Paul tonight. So if Refsynder indeed goes on the IL, I expect we'll see Celestino again for a game or two.

That's not bad, but MLB #1 hitters have a .337 OBP overall this year, and .345 vs LHP. Garlick's 2021 OBP vs LHP actually only ranked 6th among Twins in last night's lineup. (And it's down to .302 after last night's game, and .298 for his MLB career vs LHP.) Garlick's line vs LHP is still very useful, but may be better utilized further down in the order? Larnach has a .394 OBP, including a .368 OBP in a very small sample vs LHP. And only a .442 SLG with .182 ISO overall.

Although 2021 has the new storyline, Refsnyder out for revenge!

I think 2016 may have tested this theory already -- Yankees still went 5-2 against us that June.

Refsynder activated, Celestino optioned.

Maybe the rationale is matching the "retro" approach of Bally Sports North pulling Twins broadcasts from most streaming TV providers.