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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    You might not have noticed, but Flexen pitched in Korea in 2020 and was one of the best in the league: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-sign-chris-flexen-from-kbo/ 63 ERA-, 58 FIP- (that's the Fangraphs version of ERA+, 100 is still average, but lower is better) in the KBO regular season, and even better in the playoffs. He wouldn't have been a headline addition but would have been a decent low-risk/upside gamble in the Shoemaker spot. Flexen's 2021 numbers so far have been dragged down a bit by one disaster start -- but unlike Shoemaker, he's been pretty good in the others. Even with that disaster start included, Fangraphs has him at 102 ERA-, 93 FIP-, and 1.1 fWAR (using FIP) or 1.0 RA9-WAR (using actual runs allowed) in 12 starts (or about 2.8 fWAR prorated to a full season). For as little as they are paying him, they've already likely gotten their money's worth.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, Enlow will be Rule 5 eligible this winter if he’s not placed on the 40-man roster.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Littell got the opener start for SF tonight and gave up 4 hits and 2 walks to Arizona without retiring a batter. Charged with 4 runs, and the next reliever stranded both inherited runners.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    More evidence: Seattle is 5 wins ahead of their BaseRuns record (which is a Pythag record using estimated runs scored/allowed -- so removing the effects of sequencing or clutch hitting/pitching). The Twins are 4 wins *behind* our BaseRuns record. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You claimed Dobnak pitched in the 8th and 9th when Baldelli should have used our "best bullpen guys". So I listed "the only time he pitched in the 8th inning of a close game". That was the April 13th game I mentioned. Dobnak pitched the 6th and 7th of a tie game, retiring all 6 batters he faced on only 15 pitches. He did give up 2 doubles and 1 run to begin the 8th and ultimately took the loss despite completing that inning with no further runs allowed. Dobnak never pitched the 9th of a close game this season. Surely you are not arguing that the 8th inning leading by 14 (April 5th), leading by 8 (April 28th) and trailing by 10 (May 1st) should be the exclusive innings of our "best bullpen guys"? And when Dobnak pitched the 10th on opening day, the only other relievers left were Alcala and Thielbar. Dobnak was not selected over our "best bullpen guys" that day.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    That's all fair, I didn't mean to nitpick. I guess I read it from the perspective of a hypothetical Seattle fan, surprised that their team's offense received a compliment. But you're right -- as bad as Seattle's hitters have been overall this season (.210/.288/.368, .656 OPS, 87 wRC+), they are .257/.328/.462, .790 OPS and 118 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, when they manage to get in that situation (23.0% of their PA). Twins are .244/.316/.433, .749 OPS and 106 wRC+ overall, but only .229/.318/.393, .712 OPS and 95 wRC+ with RISP (24.5% of our PA). League is .250/.339/.412, .751 OPS and 105 wRC+ with RISP (25.0% of PA).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The Seattle strikes are mostly touching the zone though. I count 5 Twins strikes off the zone on that side, vs only 2 for Seattle. But Seattle got a low strike too, and the Twins may have lost a few strikes high or on the other side according to the balls chart.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the called strike chart for each team: Seems like the Twins got a few more strikes off that side of the plate, although it's possible the Twins pitchers were just attacking that spot more often. Here's the called balls chart for each team: Link (you have to click "Illustrator" under the score box to toggle the pitch charts): https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=6/14/2021&gamePk=633716&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=Ball&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins were 1-for-7 with RISP; Seattle, 2-for-9 (the extra hit perhaps offset by a GIDP).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The only time Dobnak has pitched in the 8th inning of a close game this season, he started the 6th and pitched through the 8th pretty well vs Boston (3 IP, 2 H, 1 R). He has not pitched the 9th inning of any close games. He did pitch the 10th inning on opening day, but extra innings is a traditional spot to use a long reliever when necessary (we already went through 5 relievers that game after Maeda only went 4.1 innings): https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=dobnara01&t=p&year=2021
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Texas took 3 of 4 from us in Minneapolis. Although sadly it doesn’t stand out as particularly memorable among the many disappointing moments of this season so far...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Jax isn’t too surprising, he is fully rested. And Jax’s availability may be allowing them to wait on making another pitching move right now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Seattle’s team batting average this year is .209.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Arraez was at least activated (along with Maeda), so he's available off the bench. Pineda and Refsynder to the IL. Buxton still experiencing soreness, so they're not activating him yet.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Pineda and Refsynder to the IL. Maeda and Arraez activated.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    For those that think $23/mo is too high, you should look up north. Canada's two major sports networks, Sportsnet and TSN, have each had a standalone streaming service for the past 3-5 years. They both advertise plans at $20/mo (or ~$17/mo billed annually), BUT due to split coverage and blackouts, hockey fans may actually need to subscribe to both to get their local team's games. (MLB and the USA aren't the only league and country with complicated blackout situations!) There are other factors at play too, but $23/mo for a standalone BSN streaming service, with all regional Twins, Wild, and Wolves games (plus Lynx and Loons), seems roughly comparable. TSN also has a "day pass" for $8, and Sportsnet a "7-day pass" for $10, to cater to more casual fans.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    But I'm told by others that $23/mo is too high. There are definitely a lot of factors around this. I wouldn't be surprised to see the whole thing scuttled before next spring. But it's interesting to think about.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Casual fans may still get BSN through a live TV package (cable, satellite, etc.), I don't think that's going away. I expect there will also be day/week passes available, like Sportsnet Now and TSN Direct offer in Canada, so casual fans can still stay connected without forking over $23/mo. I'm not sure how this all plays out with rights fees, of course.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Just use a text-to-speech program to read the Twins Daily game threads.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Increasingly people don't want the "quantity" provided by live TV channel bundlers like cable, satellite, AT&T TV, etc. Even at less than $92/month, it's not good value for a lot of consumers anymore. That's why Netflix, Disney+, HBO Max, and other services seem to be flourishing. Bally should be able to position itself around those services (even if their price is a bit higher). Of course, it remains to be seen whether this subscription cost can support the rights fees -- that's where propping up the Bally gambling business comes into play, I suspect.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Live TV streaming packages are quite a bit different from other streaming services. Notably the price is much higher due to all the channels (it's basically a cable or satellite replacement), so there's more benefit to offering a low initial price -- just like cable and satellite companies do -- as compared to a sub-$25 niche streaming service doing the same. I'm sure the price may change as they figure out their subscriber base -- these are uncharted waters for RSNs here in the US. Although FWIW, Sportsnet Now has been around for 5 years in Canada at a pretty consistent price point. Sportsnet has some unique conditions in Canada, but it's probably not an accident that Bally is considering a similar price to start.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    There's some data that Rogers isn't as effective back-to-back. And letting him go another inning would preclude even attempting to pitch him for more than 3 outs the following day, if necessary. The Twins may have still done it (let Rogers pitch a full inning down 1 Friday) except that they had already used Farrell and Robles while trailing the night before. There are some limits to how often you can pursue that strategy!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you might be misinterpreting that line of reasoning. It is about conservation of resources. Rogers absolutely could have thrown another inning after his 3 pitches, but that could have impacted his availability/effectiveness for the following game. So Baldelli made the calculation that it wasn’t worth it, down by 1 at that point. Folks can and do still disagree with that, of course.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That is exactly what all of the streaming TV providers have done, like Sling, YouTube TV, AT&T TV, etc. People seem to hate it and use the early initial price as a benchmark, but those services were pioneers, started when consumers were largely unfamiliar with streaming TV. And their ultimate cost was going to be much higher. It would have been harder to convince people to jump to a new service called YouTube TV at $65 if their cable bill was already $85 or something. Hence the heavy initial discount. I don’t think Bally has to do that, not at the suggested price point. Consumers already know what streaming TV is now and $23 is competitive for a good segment of them — there is certainly nothing comparable for RSN access. I am sure the price will change a bit over time, like Netflix and general inflation, but I don’t think they should have to artificially hike it up to $23 in phases.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It won’t be “DVR” in that you won’t tell it to record, but there could be a way to watch completed games, or to start live games from the beginning, and skip ahead or back in such games. I think the old Fox Sports Go had some functionality like that. Sounds like the initial Bally app doesn’t allow that this season but of course it’s not a standalone service yet either.
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