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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Audra Martin? Losing Brian Schales brings an end to the Nick Anderson transaction tree, barely after it began...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Can't sign him until we modify the TD censor policy, apparently.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I think at minimum Dobnak is being universally endorsed as Pineda's replacement for the first month and a half, even among those who still want 2 more starters acquired. (And from there, he could easily earn a more permanent spot through performance or injuries.) As far as being the 5th starter outright, even with Pineda, I'm open to that possibility too. Although I think Pineda's absence might be a good opportunity to let Dobnak compete with a quality buy-low guy like Alex Wood as well, and let the winner keep the 5th spot when Pineda comes back.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    We even have a "sister team" in Korean baseball (in nickname, at least) in the LG Twins! (Edit: coke to prouster!) We should have changed our name to the "Hormel Spam Fighters" to land Ohtani too.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I think "beggars can't be choosers" applies to the Angels rotation these days.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Gerrit Cole and Mike Minor got better moving to the AL. Lance Lynn looked like a poster boy for a bad NL to AL transition, but now his career AL ERA+ is exactly the same as his NL mark. Quintana's been a little worse in the NL so far. Very small samples, but Bauer and Stroman were worse after going to the NL last year, and Greinke did just fine coming back to the AL. I'm sure there are guys for whom the reverse is true, but I really doubt there is any kind of meaningful general pattern.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, and Nick Anderson was a guy were were going to leave unprotected -- but I suspect we somehow knew he was a likely selection -- so we traded him and let Miami protect him instead. But we didn't get much back... why not just protect him?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Has that ever happened to us? Nick Burdi, maybe, but I don't think we're losing sleep over him...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    You're right that Rosario probably isn't involved -- but that proposal seems high. Kirilloff and Balazovic/Duran could probably get Alcantra even if he has a bit of a breakthrough in 2020. Where he stands now, unless Miami is super-confident that he will break through, I think Kirilloff alone would be more than enough to get him, or Larnach plus a pitcher. (Not saying that's a good deal for the Twins at all!)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    In terms of run prevention, Bauer has one great season out of 6; Ray, 1 out of 5. How much do you want to bet that they are available at the deadline at acceptable cost *and* represent a significant upgrade? (And hope that our rotation hasn't harmed our playoff chances in the first 4 months of the season.) Keep in mind, Arizona and Cincinnati don't have to be playoff teams to not sell -- they really just have to be in the wild card race, which can be a pretty low threshold. And even if you do get a rental at the deadline, you'll be right back in the same FA decision mode two months later (a QO might get you another year, but it also likely increases the cost to acquire them too).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Virtually every team is making moves like this on a regular basis (short term, ~$10 mil AAV FA contracts, trading 35-40 FV guys like Jaylin Davis). And if every team is doing it, it's not a useful definition of risk. In fact, a few of your examples -- like signing Cron for $5 mil -- are almost trending toward too-conservative risk, like inaction or doing too little. By this definition, TR might have been the riskiest GM ever, re-signing Rondell White to start after 2006. I think it's fair to define risk, in this context, as putting more on the line -- more meaning significant money (more than short term ~$10 mil AAV FA contracts) or significant talent (top 100 prospects, and/or a lot of decent prospects). The Twins haven't done that yet. Maybe that's been the right decision so far, but they're probably going to have to do it sooner or later, lest they start limiting our potential through too much conservatism.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, it's a blind dream. Gore is pretty much untouchable. They wouldn't trade him for Syndergaard. They're definitely not going to use him to dump Myers. You could possibly look lower on their prospect list for a match, although they already moved Urias (for another young player).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, I'd scratch Darvish from that list. The way his 2019 finished and this offseason is trending, Darvish at 4/81 seems like a perfectly appropriate investment for virtually any contending team.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Lynn was forecasted by MLBTR to sign for 4/56 that winter. I'm not sure how you define "top FA pitcher" but he was in the Ervin, Nolasco, Hughes extension type group, and his 2018 results were well within the expected range of outcomes for that group without any extraordinary factors.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    As a bonus: players don't get paid while on PED suspensions! The Twins might be trying to secretly perform their own PED tests on free agents this winter (don't ask how), with an eye toward getting a future discount.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Then what would you call Boof Bonser's playoff debut? A masterpiece? How did he fare the next season? I'm all for seeing what Dobnak can do in 2020, but that is completely irrelevant to the goal of strengthening the top of the rotation this offseason.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Did they? Morton had an edge in fWAR, 6.1 to 4.8, but by actual on-field results (RA9-WAR and bWAR) they were virtually the same. Better value in Morton, sure, but not meaningfully better production. And we'd probably be ecstatic if the Twins had signed either one last winter, and we're hoping they can find another one this winter, even if it costs $140 mil. (I'll grant that we won't be signing any $300 mil guys soon, and that's fine.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I read it, and considered it, so don't blast me in reply. I get that $118 mil may not have been the Phillies best offer, or it may have already represented an overpay, etc. I still think it could have been worth making such an offer -- no offense to the White Sox, but I don't think they were much of a test for Wheeler's off-field preferences, and it may have been worth overpaying if he was their #1 target, and to avoid getting shut out. Much depends on what the Twins do the rest of the offseason, of course, but I really did not like hearing that the Twins were prepared to offer more but didn't get a chance. As far as 105 not also being worth 125, obviously that was the Twins judgement but it remains to be seen whether it was correct. The FA market in pro sports is nothing like an individual shopping for a car. Car shopping, it is perfectly acceptable (and admirable, even) for people to err on the side of frugality and utility every single time. That's not really the nature of running a pro sports franchise -- it's competitive by nature, and some risks have to be taken. Additionally, the FA market has many more variables than car shopping, and is much harder to predict -- what one sees as the upper limit price on a FA might change dramatically over a short period of time, based on competition and scarcity of resources. Now, it is better that the Twins have failed to sign a big contract so far than to have signed the wrong big contract, but it would be better still if we were able to sign the *right* big contract. That's part of my expectation for this front office too -- not the only part, but a big enough part that I'm following their offseason moves.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Look, it was natural to crow over Darvish earlier -- he missed most of 2018, then looked pretty wild to start 2019, so there was some question as to whether he was a lemon, or cooked (or a cooked lemon, perhaps?). But his second half of 2019 was among the best in baseball. He would have been an asset to any postseason team in 2019, and to any team with contention aspirations for 2020. If he was a FA today, we'd absolutely be interested in him on a 4/81 deal, right? I don't think we should still be crowing about "dodging that bullet", especially before we add anybody new this winter (much less before we see if they are capable of performing like Darvish just did in the second half).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I get the "only 1 out of 30 teams can win the WS each year" thing (although it's little comfort when your team is swept lifelessly out of the first round of the playoffs repeatedly) -- but it doesn't seem to apply to free agents. Not every team is really participating in the FA market, at least not to the same extent. The Twins are among the group which *should* be participating, and should be capable, based on circumstances, so I understand the anxiety when they're not making additions.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If there are only 53 seasons, of players on 5+ year contracts, then your sample is what, 10 players or less? Over 3 offseasons? I'm not sure that's too meaningful. (Edit: and you're excluding Greinke from those numbers too? Why?) Just nudging your sample one year earlier, I see at least 10 such seasons. Moving it one year later, I see 6 and counting. (And even in your sample, I might count Darvish and his posting fee plus 6 year contract, which would add a few more to your total.) And why the firm 4 WAR cutoff? Jon Lester's all-star season of 2018 counts for nothing using this criteria. Odorizzi's 2019 wouldn't have counted either -- he wasn't on a long-term contract, obviously, but it's an example of an obviously good season that should count if you're judging a contract. Cruz's 2019 would likewise barely qualify -- another 10 games on the DL and he doesn't make it. (And Cruz's great 2015-2018 in Seattle is ignored because it was only a 4 year FA contract.) Speaking personally, I don't want the Twins to sign just *any* long FA deal. I could have told you the Pujols contract would have been a bad idea for us on the day it was signed; same for a few others (Sandoval!). But there are some good ones, and the job of the Twins front office should be to identify and sign those guys -- and be judged on their ability to do so -- not to simply sit out this market completely. And if that's only the best 4 years deal, so be it, but we haven't seen that yet either.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm sure they want some wiggle room built into the budget like this, but at the same time, deadline budgeting is a very different animal -- they already know how 2/3 of the season has gone so far, and they have a lot more confidence in their projections (both performance and revenue) for the last two months, etc. Given the right circumstances, they could push the 2020 payroll up to $145 mil at the deadline, even if their preseason budget limit was $135 mil. (They could also cut it to $125 mil if they become sellers...)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You say that like it is surprising. Both have consistently *very* low payrolls, and both are among the top revenue sharing recipients. (Neither is making significant investments in facilities right now either.) The Twins shouldn't be expected to compare to either of those clubs in terms of net profit right now.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really -- the $135 mil already includes 2020 arb estimates for those guys. The only way extensions would increase the 2020 payroll is if you front-loaded them -- which is certainly possible, but even then, it's probably only a few million. (They could just as well back-load them too, if they'd rather invest 2020 payroll in FAs.) And there really is no "etc." -- those 3 guys you listed, plus Rogers, are probably the only realistic extension candidates this winter. And odds are only 1 or 2 of them are willing to sign. And $135 mil is a conservative payroll at this point too -- they were at ~$130 entering 2018, and that was just coming off an 85 win wild-card season. They could easily support $140 mil for 2020 if their desired FAs and extensions warrant it.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    First off, the top 8 FA SP aren't all equal (and MLBTR actually ranked Pineda 9th, and Odorizzi 6th). And isn't the goal to improve the team? Re-signing the same guys doesn't do that. And normally I'd say "how much can you improve a 101 win team?" but this was a 101 win team with a pretty clear void at the top of the rotation last year, and an ending to the season that suggests our 101 win formula clearly needs refinement for postseason success. I'll also add that so far they've only signed Odorizzi and Pineda for the short term -- which isn't necessarily bad, but it does suggest we're not super-confident in either, and/or we'll have to count on the team signing more guys (and the correct guys) each winter going forward. (Not to say there isn't risk with longer contracts too, but if you like a guy, there are potential additional payoffs for a longer-term bet.)
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