Otto von Ballpark
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At least two position player starters (Garver and Arraez), one SP, and probably two opening day relievers will still be on minimum salaries next year. With a few more on the way. I assure you, many folks have crunched the long-term numbers here at TD, and the Twins can absolutely afford such a deal right now. We're still quite a bit under our target 2020 payroll, and Marwin and Cruz will be riding off into the sunset shortly too. (And Rosario, May, and Duffey are more likely to ride off with them as they get more expensive, rather than get a meaningful extension.) Now, as you say, just because we have the money available, it's still an open debate as to whether a particularly player is worth that commitment. But I don't think it's fair to suggest we may not be able to afford it in our 5 year outlook. -
You said this: I am confused didn't the Twins have 5 "ace type" pitchers in the minor leagues just a few short years ago (2017 they were 5 of the Twins top 10 prospects). Romero, Gonzo, Jay, Stewart and Mejia. You did say "sarcasm" in that post, but if the sarcasm meant they weren't "ace types" then I'm not sure what the point was. Including projected 3's in "ace type" or "top of the rotation" definitions is watering down the term to near meaninglessness, in my opinion. You're incorrect on rankings -- only Jay and Stewart ever cracked a top 50, among those 5, and both of those were immediately after their draft *and* included high-end reliever potential, arguably more than ace starter potential. And a top 100 ranking is meaningless as far as evidence of ceiling -- guys can be ranked for floor as much as they can be ranked for ceiling. And as I mentioned above, spots 75-100 are more or less interchangeable with 101-125 or more -- sneaking into the back part of a top 100 list isn't much more than a coin flip from being left just outside.
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Actually, I think it's even worse than that -- I believe Mejia was 99th or something on BA's in-season top 100 update, which removed prospect graduates but didn't include that year's draftees or new international signings. Probably comparable to a 120-130 ranking on a normal list. Mejia did apparently sneak up to 86 on BP's list, pre-2015. That was a year and a half before the Twinsa acquired him, though, and looks like a bit of an outlier. Of course, being ranked 75-100 isn't appreciably different than being ranked 101-125 either. Edit: found it! Mejia was BA's midseason #91 in 2016, without including new draftees or international signings: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23377-article-nunez-traded-to-giants-for-lhp-prospect/?p=520558
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Obviously there's of lot of subjectivity in prospect evaluations, but I think these are a stretch, and I don't think you're presenting anything remotely close to a consensus here. First Google result for "Tyler Jay draft profile": "Projection: Elite closer, No. 3 starter" https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2486077-tyler-jay-prospect-profile-for-twins-1st-round-pick First result for "Stephen Gonsalves draft profile": "Projection: No. 4 or 5 starter on first-division team" https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1658066-stephen-gonsalves-prospect-profile-for-minnesota-twins-4th-round-pick 2nd result for Gonsalves, a 2017 Twins blog: "MLB Player Comp: Jaime Garcia" https://puckettspond.com/2017/10/20/minnesota-twins-scouting-report-lhp-stephen-gonsalves/ Mejia: "I see a league-average fourth starter." (Fangraphs) "Best case scenario, Mejia stays on track and becomes a slightly worse version of Teheran." (Twins blog) I think it's a stretch to say any of these guys profiled/projected as "top of the rotation" types, without seriously stretching that definition. Stewart's draft profile, from the same site as above: "Projection: Ceiling of a high-end No. 2 starter; potential All-Star; No. 4 starter, dynamic closer floor." Although I think even that eroded a bit by his first full pro season.
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These guys have all played in the minor league circuit, though. They know what "small cities" are like. They know the difference between major and minor league, and Minneapolis is closer to major league like Chicago etc. than it is to minor league like Omaha and Topeka (or worse). Not that there aren't differences, but considering the nature of the sport and the job, I don't think the Twins are at such a location disadvantage that high offers are going to be consistently rejected. Like most teams, they just have to make the high offer if they really want to land some of these players.
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I'm not sure that's really the choice, though -- it's not like KC winning it all is really the reason they suck now. They've primarily just had a bad run of drafting and development most recently, after a nice of run of doing that earlier. They did supplement that with a few aggressive moves (Shield/Davis, Cueto, Zobrist) to help win that WS, but even adding Myers' Odorizzi, and Manaea back to the current Royals club, I'm not sure that gets them back to competitiveness right now. I think the Twins goal should be to maintain better drafting and development, AND pair that with targeted aggressiveness like the Royals did. We're hopefully seeing the former, but still waiting on the latter. And I understand the anxiety while we wait, especially since "competitive every year" without postseason competitiveness feels a little empty...
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Romero definitely had some hype, and is a good cautionary tale. The others you list were never really tabbed as having "ace" potential (at least not much beyond draft day for Stewart).
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How much are "Money" and "Minny" related? In pro sports and the entertainment industry in general, we know recruiting involves a lot ego-stroking, etc. And I think it's possible that the Twins efforts in that regard are ultimately hampered by a pattern of offering ~20% less to top free agents. Put another way, big talk certainly can't be helped by bargain bidding. "Putting your money where your mouth is" as the saying goes. Not that I suggest we should overpay for someone just to make that splash -- but if there's a top player we genuinely desire in free agency (and it's certainly felt that way, at times), it might behove us to finally play at the top of the bidding instead of hovering just below that point.
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If you are referring to the same info that I saw, I don't think this is an accurate summary. I believe the report said the Twins offered $100 mil to Wheeler, and were prepared to go past $100 mil. But absent any info to suggest otherwise, the Twins were not going to match or beat the two high offers already on the table, one of which was from a competitive team. In which case, his agent said, don't bother, which makes sense, because such a bid would have done nothing to advance the negotiations at that point.
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Doesn't the phrase "not just" imply that Morton indeed found the perfect situation in terms of money, in addition to those other factors? If the Twins really liked Morton, what would have been the harm in making the highest bid and actually testing Morton's preferences on the other factors?
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First off, just to correct the record, Wheeler's agent isn't Boras, it's "Jet Sports Management". Perhaps not quite as ruthless. Secondly, I don't think this is much of a factor when the high bid is relatively close to the accepted bid. The union generally wouldn't like Bumgarner signing for $85 mil if he had a $125 mil offer on the table, because that affects other negotiations and it's difficult to spin -- but they probably couldn't care less if Wheeler takes $118 mil from the Phillies instead of $123 mil or whatever from the White Sox. That tiny difference doesn't hurt other negotiations at all. In fact, the union will probably welcome the positive press just like Wheeler and his agency did. The evidence we have suggests the Twins were willing to beyond their bid of $100 mil, but not likely to best either of the top two bids, so it's a moot point in regards to the Twins anyway.
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Why would Boras not want that to get out? It would make him look better. It would make his client look better. It would make his client's team (Philly, assuming he still signed there) look better.
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Some use "league" to refer to all MLB (30 teams). It is the Major *League*, after all.
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Actual Twins trade rumor alert! https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/tradefa-rumblings-arenado-keuchel-cards-twins-marlins-mets-correa.html
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I understand you are personally pessimistic Alcantra, but saying this offer "would do it" is frankly insulting to the Twins FO (not to mention the Marlins). You may as well say 3/45 will sign Ryu or Donaldson here. You don't have to like Alcantra or want him on your team, you can say you wouldn't offer any more than this, that's all fine -- but you can't pretend the player is actually available that cheaply.
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I agree. That's what I basically said, in the last paragraph. Up to that point, I was just responding to the other poster's general assertion that Rosario is too good/valuable to trade for something useful. He isn't, really -- but it's moot because it's unlikely that we can right now.
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And Yo****omo Tsutsugo ("he who shall not be named"?) is off the board -- 2/12 deal with Tampa (plus a $2.4 mil posting/release fee): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/rays-sign-yo****omo-tsutsugo-japanese-slugger-npb.html
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It was really a team effort, and we can all be proud of that.
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Corey Dickerson and Cole Kalhoun have performed equally to, or better than, Rosario, and are available in free agency for less than what Rosario will make in arbitration over the next two years: wRC+, 2019 and career Dickerson: 127 and 117 Calhoun: 108 and 105 Rosario: 103 and 105 I think the theory would be, if you can get something useful for Rosario, you can sign one of those guys as a replacement, and it will be a net gain. (Of course, I doubt how much we can get something useful for Rosario right now, especially with those guys still available in FA.)
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Obviously not. But a modern playoff team needs 4 starters anyway, and the Twins didn't have that -- because in July, the FO bet on Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda, and Gibson all being active, healthy, and good come October. (Or they bet on Dobnak or Smeltzer being ready to start a playoff game? That didn't turn out much better.)
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Let's stop the fussin' an' a-feudin' -- there is plenty of blame to go around for the Twins playoff losses! Arraez's defense and Baldelli's pen management demand a seat at the table too!
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I think there may have been a new U.S. tariff, on Canadian batting averages...
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Another thought: do we really want Bert Blyleven pronouncing this name?
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Has Ben Nintendo ever faced Genesis Cabrera?
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League average was only 5.18 innings (that's less than five and one-third). I don't think averaging 5 is particularly meaningful anymore, by itself. (His average performance in those 5 is probably more important, plus the other factors -- age, health, salary, etc.)
