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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Outside the box idea: Toronto! They're in the bottom half of 3B performance so far in 2021, they have a positive history with Donaldson, and although they have Cavan Biggio and expect him to improve, they also have DH at-bats they could give Donaldson while Biggio rotates around in a super-utility role. I wouldn't expect Toronto to go out of their way to acquire Donaldson, but it could be a creative addition to a trade for Twins pitching. Another blast from Donaldson's past is Oakland, although what they really need is a shortstop. But if the price was right, maybe they'd add Donaldson, let him take some DH at-bats in 2021, with an eye toward flipping Chapman as he enters his final two years of arbitration eligibility.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    John, FYI -- if you click the "3B" position along the horizontal bar at Fangraphs, that shows you the combined stats of everyone who Fangraphs qualifies as a 3B. So for the Twins, for example, it includes Donaldson's full line, Arraez's full line, and Astudillo's -- even the stats they've accumulated while playing other positions. This is evident in the fact that PA in this split varies wildly between teams. If you click "3B" from the drop-down split menu instead, you will only see stats accumulated by players while playing 3B: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2021&month=39&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=15,a The Twins wOBA in your split (including Astudillo) was .327, but in the latter split, it shoots up to .356, to give you an idea of the potential swings. Among possible trade targets, though, there isn't much movement. Cincinnati moves ahead of (worse than) Milwaukee, right next to Washington in actual 3B performance, although they're already locked into Suarez and the currently injured Moustakas.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I endorse your optimism, although note that winning the division is more likely than the wild card. We are a similar number of games back in both races right now but we have fewer/weaker teams to pass in the division — and a ton of head-to-head games left with those teams too. Here are the current projected win totals from Fangraphs: Division: CHW 90, CLE 84 Wild Card: TBR 90, OAK 89, NYY 88, TOR 88 Fangraphs gives us a 2.4% at the division right now, vs only 0.7% for a wild card.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    White Sox won their nightcap, although a late 7-1 lead turned into a save situation and they had to use Hendriks to close it out, final 7-5. Twins are 11.5 games back, same as KC and DET. (Tied with KC for last place, percentage points behind DET.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Dodgers and Padres have the 2nd and 3rd best records in the NL, so it’s not like they’ve been slacking that much either. The Giants have just been that good. (And Pythag and BaseRuns back up their record too!) Preseason, Fangraphs gave the Giants a 5.7% chance of making the postseason; now, it’s up to 85.3%. Kind of the Twins in reverse (63.3% preseason, 3.2% now).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    And the Padres aren’t even in first place — they are 4.5 games out. If the season ended today, the Padres would have to go to LA for the wild card game.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Berrios and Buxton are already married to non-Minnesotans, with children.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll note that in my experience, there wasn't a lot of general Twins discussion going on in the late 1990s either. That's what happens when your team is really bad and out of the race early. It's natural to expect 2021 to still have more interest due to the recent success of 2019-2020, but restrictions on tickets and attendance so far have meant that a lot of preseason ballpark trip planning didn't happen this year either. (I think the down period of the 2010s was buoyed a bit by Target Field, as well as the extended success of 2002-2010.) As for MLB apathy, it's largely a regional sport so that's highly dependent on the local team's performance too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Just like how the minor leagues were reorganized this year, so too were Twins Daily ranks. By the power vested in me by no one in particular, I now christen you a Rocket City Trash Panda: But seriously, I don't know. @Brock Beauchamp, care to chime in?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Preface Game thread intros are usually posted 1 hour before first pitch. But due to forecasted forum conditions, today's game thread intro is a little late. Mind you, just like how it wasn't raining during yesterday's weather delay at Target Field, nothing unusual was happening in the forums today, and I probably could have posted through it. But the forum forecast called for a little spam, plus there was a potentially disrespectful thread comparing Falvey and Levine to Skeeter and Scooter of the Muppet Babies. (Disrespectful to whom, I'll leave it to the reader to decide.) So I decided to wait it out, and fortunately, no postponement should be necessary (or unfortunately, depending on your perspective). Each of my two game thread intros thus far have brought results which pleased many Twins fans. The first resulted in a Twins win; the second resulted in Matt Shoemaker's last start as a Twin. (This could be bad news for J.A. Happ?) Minnesota (32-43, 5th place, 12 GB) Starting pitcher: J.A. Happ, LHP, 3-3, 6.09 ERA Lineup: 1. 2B J. Polanco S 2. 3B J. Donaldson R 3. DH N. Cruz R 4. RF T. Larnach L 5. C R. Jeffers R 6. 1B Miguel Sano R 7. LF L. Arraez L 8. CF G. Celestino R 9 SS A. Simmons R Cleveland (41-32, 2nd place, 2 GB) Starting pitcher: Sam Hentges, LHP, 1-1, 6.40 ERA Lineup: 1. DH C. Hernandez S 2. SS Amed Rosario R 3. 3B Jose Ramirez S 4. LF E. Rosario L 5. 1B B. Bradley L 6. CF H. Ramirez R 7. RF Josh Naylor L 8. C Rene Rivera R 9. 2B E. Clement R
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    LaMonte Wade Jr. is back up with Giants too (replacing Brandon Belt who went on the IL). Wade went 2-for-4 yesterday with a 2 run HR plus a walk. 2 runs scored and 2 RBI while batting leadoff in a 6-5 Giants win in 10 innings.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Blankenhorn got to pinch hit for the Mets yesterday, down by 1 run to lead off the 9th. He reached on an error and later came around to score the tying run in a Mets comeback win.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking at his stats, I’m not even sure I’d call Funderburk a AAAA player — he actually hit poorly in AAA for his career: .204/.262/.355, .617 OPS in 654 PA. Funderburk was solid at AA though and got to rack up 558 games and 2246 PA at that level. And his nice MLB cameo in September 1985 came after a promotion straight from AA at age 28 too. Not sure what you’d call a “AAAA” player without the AAA.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless that is a facetious gif, note that the White Sox series starts Monday, and Happ has not fared well against them.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Happ will still start Sunday; Maeda skips ahead to Monday.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    But, we need all the games we can get right now to erase our deficit. As it is, we already have an early season Detroit game that isn't being made up until after the all-star break, and now we're pushing this one past the trade deadline. This also benefits Cleveland -- had they even named a starter for Sunday yet? Now they get to use Hentges and their full bullpen in that game. And their rotation might be back to full strength come September (although doubleheaders are usually tricky in that regard).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the continuing weather concern, playing two games tomorrow would necessitate Cleveland changing their travel plans on short notice (they're supposed to fly to Detroit after the game Sunday). Seems like Sunday doubleheaders are pretty rare, and that might be part of the reason.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Postponed, will be made up as part of a doubleheader in September.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Hicks was an extension with NYY, so it included his last year at $6 mil in arbitration. Buxton is already at $5.13 mil in his 2nd to last arb season, when Hicks was still at $2.825 mil, to give you an idea of their relative values. Hicks was a year older than Buxton too -- his first FA season would have been at age 30, while Buxton will only be 29. And of course it was padded to 7 years to even out the luxury tax burden on NYY, which Hicks was more willing to do because of his age.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    It's tricky to draw specific conclusions from the FA market, because the sample of top FA is so small to begin with. A general conservative trend is likely happening, but it could be having a greater affect on guys like Pablo Sandoval and Mike Leake. I'm not sure there are a lot of dynamic Buxton comparables that have hit the market lately. Also, general 3/70 offers may not be that different from a 5/100 winning bid after we account for the remaining arb season (~$8 mil) and the likelihood that an extra year might be required to actually win the bidding. For example, MLBTR predicted 3/75 for Donaldson but it took 4/92 to get him to sign here -- and I think ATL and WAS may have been the only other serious bidders.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Balazovic is still in Wichita and Duran is on the shelf right now, unfortunately. That may have been what the other poster was referring to.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Jax might need to make a start next week. There are still a few rested arms in the pen plus Shoemaker if they need length, so they might not need a move until after the next short start.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Are we not scoreboard watching yet? White Sox lost at home 9-3 to Seattle, their 6th loss in 7 games. Twins have gone 5-2 to climb from 16 games back to 12 games back in that time. We're still tied for last place though as Detroit was rained out vs Houston.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I don’t think he said it is easy. But compared to his peers, Buxton’s aggressiveness at the plate (and in the field) might be making him more vulnerable to these kinds of injuries. Of course, Buxton’s aggressiveness also helps him be a better hitter and defender than his peers, so it really is a difficult situation!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Barnes isn’t out of options, his option clock just hasn’t started yet since he’s not on the 40-man.
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