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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The Odorizzi acquisition definitely had an impact, but the term "impact" is from this offseason -- and has a very different context than the impact you are describing here. I think if our "impact" pitching acquisition this offseason is coming off a 0.1 bWAR season in 2019, and posts a 1.5 bWAR full season mark in 2020, with only one year of control beyond that -- I don't think I would view that as favorably as Odorizzi, even if we "win" the trade and get good value in the process. Hence my original reply, why the Odorizzi example isn't really all that applicable or reassuring in the context of this offseason's goals, even if the Odorizzi move was just fine for the time it was made.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously this is all hypothetical, but I'm not sure aggregate stats are the way to go. With his dominant 2nd half, Darvish could have been an asset in the 2019 postseason, and on a 4/81 deal going forward. As far as Cruz, more likely Darvish would have impacted other contracts from the same offseason -- Lynn obviously, and maybe Reed? Reed's money even carried over into 2019 and would have arguably been a better "bullet to dodge"! And remember, we were almost $10 mil under our 2018 payroll in 2019, so it wouldn't necessarily have taken much more than Reed's $8 mil to fit Darvish into a 2019 budget. But even if it did, the late signing of Marwin was probably more likely to get squeezed out than the early signing of Cruz. Obviously this is all hypothetical, and there are all kinds of "butterfly effect" things that could have happened in the meantime, but it's not clear to me at this point that signing Darvish would have been worse than the moves we made and/or the remaining moves we are currently left considering this offseason.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It was a solid trade -- but was Odorizzi an "impact pitcher" at the time, or in his first season here? Teams generally aren't trading guys with fewer question marks than the FAs. Also, Wheeler and Bumgarner only got 18% more than MLBTR estimates, less if you discount Bumgarner's deferred money and extra year. Maybe we wouldn't have had to pay 30-40% if we had been aggressive earlier? And this cuts both ways. Two years ago, we only offered Darvish 40% *less* than MLBTR's prediction. I'd be more open to sitting out a hot market if we had been more aggressive in a slow one.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    First off, post you quoted said nothing about the Royals. Did you quote the wrong one?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Better than devoting 6 of 25 to the 4th starter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPYH4s7_e34
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    We are talking past each other a bit, and I apologize for that. I'll just conclude this tangent by saying I'm not picking on the FO here at all -- I suspect that Bumgarner and Wheeler probably weren't worth 20% more than what they signed for (pending future Twins pitching moves, I hope!). I'm just commenting on players and contracts in general.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Other than the Cano deal? Which was an aggressive win-now move, not a sell low move like you are suggesting here.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I mistakenly labeled Dominic Smith as an outfielder (although he's played a little out there), but still I don't see how you are disagreeing with my assessment in regards to the Mets outfield and Eddie Rosario. Conforto and Nimmo both out-hit Rosario the last two seasons and for their MLB careers, and both are controlled as long or longer than Rosario too. They don't really need another corner outfielder who may be able to fake it in center, do they? Or if they do, they certainly don't need to spend Syndergaard to get that player. Buxton would obviously be appealing to them -- real CF, 3 years control -- but not Rosario, right?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this is a perfect example of too many qualifiers. No matter what I say, it is dismissed. I list Greinke, but a 4 year old TV deal makes it an aberration (Forbes in 2019 still has the Twins and Diamondbacks equal in revenue, by the way). I list all kinds of aggressive moves, but they can only be SP. There were several SP in my list but apparently they weren't good enough or they only won game 5 of the division series (Cueto) or game 2 of the World Series (Cueto, again) or their team lost game 7 of the World Series or whatever, as if any of that matters to my repeated point that the Twins have yet to demonstrate the same aggressiveness in MLB player acquisition as a number of comparable clubs, and some of us fans are both excited and anxious to see it happen. No, these qualifiers were not part of any prior parameters for this discussion, otherwise I would have never taken part. It's not fun or productive to discuss like this, it's tiresome, and it proves nothing other than one can endlessly pile qualifiers on top of any argument and reduce the whole thing to meaninglessness. (For the record, Cleveland traded prospects for both Sabathia and Jimenez, in addition to several aggressive non-SP trades. But please don't respond with how those don't "count" now for some reason.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah got it. I misread. Still, yeah, it seems 29 teams would have equal claim to not being LA -- most more than Anaheim! I kinda doubt the Dodgers would have offered that kind of money either, which would make the point moot -- they do have the capacity to spend, but 3B seems like more of a want than a need for them at the moment, and they haven't been super-aggressive in FA lately.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    We should have a contest! Add up all the TD trade proposals. Rosario might be in the lead this winter, but I imagine Thorpe, Enlow, and Rooker are not far behind. Gordon is still kicking too, and might be an inner circle all-time TD trade candidate when judging his (our) complete body of work.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, baseballtradevalues.com actually validated that trade pretty well! Kluber carries more risk at this point than people might think.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It doesn't take any Rosario hate to notice that the Mets already have 3 good corner outfield performers returning from last season. (And that's not counting Davis who primarily played LF but has no glove, or McNeil who also played primarily in LF/RF but is probably needed more in the infield going forward.) They don't need Rosario, and certainly not at the price of Syndergaard. Even if he's not Godiva, I congratulate your son on producing accurate chocolate in his lab! Seriously, if you have a quibble with a specific calculation from baseballtradevalues.com here, I'd love to hear it. Might be fun to break it down to see where their numbers are coming from, and where perhaps opinions might differ.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I read his "$200 mil revenue and climate in 2 years" comment as an exaggeration. But I'll ask both him and you to keep this more about baseball and less about other posters. There's not a complete absence of aggressive moves by similar revenue teams as the Twins. If you don't like the Cardinals, off the top of my head: - I know that the Diamondbacks have had similar revenue figures as the Twins at Forbes and they've signed Greinke and now Bumgarner (and traded a top ~100 prospect a few months ago too); - the White Sox had less revenue at Forbes the year they signed Abreu out of Cuba, and have equal revenue now when they signed Grandal, both larger FA guarantees than the Twins have ever handed out (and FWIW, the ChiSox apparently offered more for Wheeler than the Twins have ever offered a FA, although I'll withhold full credit until they actually complete a deal like that!); - the Brewers have traded top prospects multiple times (and signed Cain for longer/more than any Twins FA contract). Examples of aggressive trading abound, from Cleveland trading top prospects multiple times, and the Royals too (including a top 5-10); even the A's have traded a top 5. And, I can't stress this enough, this is isn't a knock on the Twins as much as it is work that is yet to be done.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he was referring to the current front office, and those 3 guys were taken by the previous one. Admittedly it's only been 3 drafts for the current FO! Although they have all seemed to lean toward position players.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, after this date last year, through spring training, the Twins made the following MLB moves: 1. Signed Nelson Cruz 2. Signed Blake Parker 3. Signed Martín Pérez 4. Signed Marwin Gonzalez That's some activity, but I'm not sure what it means for our current pursuit of high-end pitching. I loved Cruz but I'm not sure there's an exciting FA SP equivalent left. And if we have to rely on trading for MLB talent, those are still uncharted waters for our FO. (And this isn't a knock on anyone, it's just a standard-issue fan anxiety post. )
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    According to Wikipedia, Toronto's population of Japanese Canadians is perhaps closer to the Japanese American population of major California cities, than to that of Minneapolis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Canadians_in_the_Greater_Toronto_Area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_large_Japanese-American_populations Both cities have a non-stop flight to Tokyo. The Toronto Blue Jays have previously employed 4 Japanese players, as compared to the Twins' 1 (and that player's Twins tenure was more infamous than famous). Munenori Kawasaki played in Toronto for 3 seasons; Tomo Ohka signed there as a free agent twice, albeit towards the end of his career. It's possible Toronto has a bit better inroads in Japanese baseball than the Twins at this point? The Blue Jays right now also offer less pressure and a clearer path to playing time. But like I said above, if the Twins interest was around a 2 year, $6 mil deal, that's not particularly strong interest either. It may not take much to dissuade them from going higher.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Those would be valid reasons that the Twins wouldn't be interested in the guy -- but as noted in the first sentence of the article, the Twins were reported to have interest in him just a few days ago. Once interest is established, and the guy signs a very modest contract, it's fair to wonder what happened in between. Although if there interest was in the range of this contract, it's also fair to question how strong the interest was to begin with!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Mostly straight up, that's probably what it would take. I could also see a package involving the next tier (Balazovic, Duran, Jeffers). Although I kinda doubt Musgrove is worth that for the Twins right now. And the Pirates likely want to bet on him, at least one more season, to see if he can break out and fetch that kind of return before they settle for something less.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets, even with WS aspirations, would be open to dealing Syndergaard, just like they floated at the 2019 deadline, but it certainly wouldn't be for a package like this. Right now, it would take Mackenzie Gore, or Buxton plus Lewis -- something elite. Of course, I don't think 2 years of Syndergaard is probably worth that at this point, so effectively, he's not getting traded.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rendon example is pretty weak, in my opinion. Did anyone even match the Angels offer? I don't doubt he likes the "LA lifestyle" but saying something good about your new city/employer after signing is standard operating procedure -- even if it's true, it doesn't really offer any insight into the player's decision making process. If the Twins had thrown $250 mil at Rendon and signed him, I'm sure he would have said something nice about the midwest too, like he enjoyed the TV show "Fargo" or something. I bet even Ricky Nolasco withheld his contempt for the state when he first signed here! Wheeler has a bit better case than that, although I'll remind that he signed with the better team, well above projections for his contract, and for only 2-3% off the high offer. He may really value game night with his future in-laws in New Jersey every Friday night, but the market certainly did not test his commitment to that principle above simply money and playing for the better team. Yankee fans apparently spit on Cliff Lee's wife in the 2010 postseason, so that certainly didn't help their bargaining position that offseason! FWIW, both the Phillies and Rangers offered a higher AAV than the Yankees too, so it's not like Lee had zero financial incentive to spurn NY.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    This proposal fails at baseballtradevalues.com, rather badly: 75-40 I'm open to the idea that the site is over-valuing Syndergaard -- but then again, likely so are the Mets. And that's a pretty wide gulf to bridge.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I was about to post that too! $70 mil was right around MLBTR's predicted contract for him too (4/72), so it seems he did have some reasonably strong monetary concerns or he probably would have jumped at that.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think backloading is evidence of too much sacrifice, for a veteran player with a lot in the bank already. Although it's notable and kinda cool, if Arizona can do something with the extra cash this year.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. The author makes a pretty compelling case that Bumgarner really preferred Arizona, so I don't question that... but I just can't shake my skepticism about two 5/100 offers, at this point. (Although the existence of such offers could help support some of my posts in another thread. )
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