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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Winder went on the AAA injured list after just 4 AAA starts -- hasn't appeared in a game since July 21st. That's generally the issue with most of our options right now. Moran is pretty much the only healthy guy that deserves a call-up. And there's still 7 weeks left in the season to do it.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    26-man roster -- so only regular season days count toward it too.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins have optioned Trevor Larnach to St. Paul, and recalled Nick Gordon. Gordon is at Target Field for tonight's game, in his usual spot on the bench:
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps "random" isn't right word -- "arbitrary" might be better, because you are choosing the criteria. It's selective endpoints. Take any player and the date that their batting average was at its lowest point, and they'll have a higher batting average after that point, by definition. I'm not sure what it tells us, though, if the only reason for picking that date was the fact that their batting average was low.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not really a loophole -- as mentioned upthread, you can't just stash them on the IL until you option them. If they don't have at least 90 days on an MLB active roster by the end of their Rule 5 season (not counting any IL stints or rehab), they still need to remain on your active roster into subsequent seasons, until they reach 90 days. The Pirates drafted Burdi in December 2017, but by my count, he never even reached 90 active days over the next 3 years -- looks like he had 68, and they were never able to option him. (He may have technically been allowed to satisfy his Rule 5 requirements in 2020 due to the shortened season -- the Rule 5 requirement was reduced from 90 to 50 days for that season only -- but it was moot anyway, as he was DFA'd, cleared waivers, and elected to become a minor league free agent after his 2nd TJ surgery, in October 2020.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The 60-day IL currently holds Colina, Dobnak, Garlick, Kirilloff, Smeltzer, and Stashak. Yes, Garlick, Smeltzer, and Stashak were already listed in the "up for grabs" group, but no one's 60-day IL status was accounted for in determining the original "14 spots to play with" figure. More accurately, it's really more like 7 spots to play with, as we decide who to retain from that "up for grabs" group, any non-lock minor leaguers we want protect (i.e. Enlow, Severino), or any MLB free agents to sign or re-sign.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, I missed a lock and edited my post. If you retain 6 from the "up for grabs" list, that means you have only 1 spot left for protecting non-lock minor leaguers or signing or re-signing *any* MLB free agents. So you're almost certainly going to end up cutting into that group of 6 too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    So we have 46 guys on the current 40-man roster, including the 60-day IL guys. That goes down to 42 if we don't re-sign any of our 4 impending MLB free agents (including Vincent). But that goes back up to 48 considering the 6 minor league "locks" to be added for Rule 5 protection. So we actually have to cut 8 guys from the "up for grabs" list of 15 (Lucas's list minus Vincent), just to make 40 in November: Charlie Barnes, LHP Devin Smeltzer, LHP Beau Burrows, RHP Danny Coulombe, LHP Luke Farrell, RHP Edgar Garcia, RHP Ralph Garza Jr., RHP Juan Minaya, RHP Cody Stashak, RHP Lewis Thorpe, LHP Derek Law, RHP Willians Astudillo, UTIL Jake Cave, OF Kyle Garlick, OF Rob Refsnyder, OF And we'll need to cut an additional player, beyond 8, for every non-lock prospect we want to protect, or any MLB free agent we sign or re-sign. It may not qualify as a "crunch" but we'll probably have to make a few tough decisions about interesting players.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Nick Vincent should be considered an "impending free agent" too, assuming he finishes the year on the 40-man (and I suspect he will) -- he has over 7 years of MLB service time, so he is neither signed nor controlled for 2022.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    This is an important point, which deserves to be repeated! With 6 guys on the 60-day IL, the Twins effectively have a 46 man roster right now, so they'll have to remove 6 guys first before they can start opening any spots for new additions.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite -- the requirement for Rule 5 restrictions to be lifted is a full season *or* 90 days on an active MLB roster, whichever comes *last*. So, since we know that Enlow will not be on an active MLB roster for all of 2022, the selecting team will need 90 days spanning multiple seasons. Could be September 2022 plus the first 2 months of 2023, etc., although September roster size limits make this more difficult now too.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Vasquez is a very interesting case! He was actually in MLB with the Twins in 2018-2019 before being waived and outrighted off the 40-man roster. Vasquez is eligible for minor league free agency this offseason if he's not on a 40-man roster. And if Vasquez signs a minor league contract before the Rule 5 draft, he would be eligible to be selected as a Rule 5 pick too -- not very common, although it did happen when the Twins signed R.A. Dickey to a minor league deal in November 2007, then lost him to Seattle in the Rule 5 draft the following month. (Dickey was later returned to the Twins and traded to Seattle without Rule 5 restrictions, and then signed with the Twins again as a minor league free agent the following offseason.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Great article, but just so no one is confused, "with the same team" is not a requirement for Rule 5 eligibility or minor league free agency. Maybe "with an affiliated team" would be more accurate? Just like MLB players qualifying for arbitration or free agency, these minor league season counts continue even after a player is traded (Woods-Richardson), claimed on waivers (Ian Hamilton), or released and re-signed with a new org. And once the threshold has been met, they keep their eligibility for Rule 5 or minor league free agency every offseason after that point, unless they are on a 40-man roster.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The player still has to be on the active MLB roster for a full season or 90 days, whichever comes last, for Rule 5 restrictions to be removed (allowing him to be optioned to the minors). Time on the injured list or rehab does not count towards that. So even if a team selected Enlow and waited out his recovery from surgery, they'd generally only get about a month of minor league rehab games for him before they'd have to activate him to the MLB roster or send him through waivers / back to the Twins. And as noted above, the 60-day IL doesn't exist during the offseason. So he'd occupy the selecting team's 40-man spot until about mid-February -- and of course, he'd continue occupying a 40-man spot in the following offseasons, if he wasn't returned to the Twins.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The 60-day IL starts around the start of spring training. As an example, the Twins originally signed Pineda, after his surgery, on December 13, 2017. They placed him on the 60-day IL on February 17, 2018. So Enlow would take up a 40-man spot from mid-November (the usual deadline to protect guys from Rule 5) until mid-February, before he could be placed on the 60-day IL.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Another way to look at it: April 1 through May 20: 3 win underperformance compared to runs scored/allowed May 20 through August 15: 4 win over-performance compared to runs scored/allowed As "unlucky" as we were in the first stretch, we've been about as "lucky" since then. While the actual (poor) quality of play has remained fairly steady throughout.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins season so far, in terms of runs scored vs runs allowed. April 1 through May 20: 186-224 (Pythagorean expected record of 17-25, or .408 -- a 66-96 pace) May 20 through August 15: 360-396 (Pythag 34-42 or .452 -- a 73-89 pace) The latter stretch of play is better than the first, but both contribute to "losing the division" -- perhaps roughly equally, considering the latter stretch is almost twice as long as the first (in other words, it may be roughly the same difficulty to come back after a really bad 42 games stretch as a bad-but-not-quite-so-bad 76 game stretch).
  18. Otto von Ballpark

    Battle for 2nd place place begins tonight! 6 games back of Cleveland, 10 head-to-head remaining...

  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Wednesday August 18th would have been Michael Pineda's turn in the rotation, before he went on the IL. Who would you like to see called up to start that game?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Almost as improbable, Gilbert was selected in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft last winter. Twins angle: Gilbert was traded for Kyle Garlick in February 2020.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It was Gilbert's first major league *start*. He was a seasoned veteran of 3 relief appearances before throwing his no-hitter last night. Wilson Alvarez came very close to do this. His first MLB appearance was a start in 1989, at age 19 (!) for the Rangers, and he faced 5 batters without recording a single out (and he gave up 2 BB and 2 HR). His next appearance was a no-hitter for the White Sox in 1991.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    In regards to team control, I mentioned that Moran is already controlled through age 30. I'm sure the FO always has service time and control on their mind -- it can come up at odd times, like the Buxton situation in 2018 -- but right now, for our minor league pitchers, it's just not much of a factor. I just did a run-down above, and frankly I think Moran is the only healthy one ready to jump to MLB. In addition to injuries, the lost 2020 minor league season, and delayed 2021 start, hurt too.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not that the cupboard is bare, but it is hurt. Duran was arguably our top/closest pitching prospect but started late and got shut down with injuries. Colina has been out all year. Thorpe and Smeltzer most of the year. Winder moved up from AA to AAA this year but he's hurt now too. These guys were all supposed to be our top minor league depth. Balazovic and Sands would have been the next level, each coming into the year with only 1 game of experience at AA. Balazovic missed the first part of the season, and Sands a month in the middle, so they're still only up to 14 career games each at AA in mid-August. Exacerbating the issue, the MLB staff has been hit hard by the injury bug as well -- younger guys like Dobnak, Stashak, and Alcala, plus vets like Maeda, Pineda, and Rogers -- lots of guys. So our need for reinforcements has been greater, at the exact same time that our reinforcements themselves are depleted.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I doubt that service time is any consideration for guys like Moran. He's already not eligible for FA until age 31, and as a reliever, he won't earn much in arbitration -- Pressly topped out at $2.9 mil, May at $2.2 mil, etc. Even Rogers, inflated by a 30 save season as closer, is only around $6 mil now. Heck, even those early FA years should be affordable, if we want to buy them out -- Pressly is making $8.75 mil and May $7.55 mil this year. Service time is primarily a consideration for elite starting prospects, and mostly position players -- their earning potential is much higher, and the value of that 7th "Kris Bryant" season of control is more projectable/stable.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Who's Ryan? You mean John Gant? After all the "who is John Gant" jokes...
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