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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It's my impression that teams don't actually review any medicals before agreeing in principle on a trade. So it's not really a failure of the Red Sox, or withholding from the Twins. Unless we think the Twins had to share any pessimism they may have felt about Graterol's future as a starter during negotiations. I don't think they have any responsibility to do that; but I think it's entirely possible the Red Sox developed a similar pessimism once they got access to the medicals.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I get being suspicious of motives, etc. -- but doesn't this theory go way beyond that? You're also assuming Bloom and the Red Sox are pretty naive (to put it charitably), to publicly complete 95% of a long-discussed blockbuster trade of one of the best players in franchise history PLUS ~$50 mil cash, without realizing the trade would hurt a bit and generate negative PR.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Up until now, the Twins have had every incentive in the world to look optimistically at Graterol's future as a starter. It's quite possible that the Twins haven't felt that same optimism privately, and another team with access to his medicals now agrees with them.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    So what do you make of Maeda's agent speaking publicly about his dissatisfaction with his Dodgers role? http://www.startribune.com/kenta-maeda-will-want-to-start-often-for-twins-to-increase-his-salary/567608762/ “Kenta wants to make 30 starts, 32 starts during the season,” Maeda’s agent, Joel Wolfe, told The Athletic in November after meeting with Dodgers President Andrew Friedman to plead his client’s case. “He would prefer not to be constantly shuttled to the bullpen and back. He doesn’t like it.”
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    By the same token, though, I doubt Bloom or the Red Sox front office fell off that turnip truck this morning either. Seriously, if the negative effects of the Red Sox playing games at this stage of the trade process are so easily apparent to everyone, why would we assume that's what the Red Sox are doing?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    It is a unique contract for sure, and plenty team friendly. But it's really only if Maeda gets injured that the Twins are out $3 mil a year. He's likely getting a leash for a year or two that will take him into the $8 mil annual range, at least. And if he doesn't excel as a starter, and we'd prefer him in the pen, we might find ourselves in the same predicament that the Dodgers were in -- trying to satisfy his desire and financial interest in remaining a starter. That should get easier as we near the end of the deal, but the first few years could be a tricky balance.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair to the Red Sox, the Twins publicly said Graterol was to begin in the pen but it was a flexible role going forward. It could be there was less flexibility than those public comments suggested. And now, "not suited for a 150- to 170-inning workload" is likely a public generalization about a specific shoulder concern.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins received medicals on Dyson, just as the Red Sox did with Graterol. But there was nothing in Dyson's medicals to suggest a problem, nor was there any real reason to be suspicious of a problem at the time. (And what constitutes a problem for a 21 year old SP prospect could be very different than what constitutes a problem for a 31 year old reliever.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    So valued, they kept him out of their playoff rotation the past 3 years. And traded him rather than promise him a starting spot going forward. Does this principle extend to someone like, say, JA Happ on the Yankees? Should we elevate our opinion of Happ beyond his on-field performance if the Yankees simply offer him to us in trade?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    And I never said otherwise. Spin it any way you want, a #3 can be average.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    WAR is a counting stat. Maeda has also ranked 1st, 4th, 5th and 4th for the Dodgers in innings pitched over those seasons too. That doesn't mean he has ever been their 1st or even 4th best starter (at least not entering the postseason since 2016). If you want to cite fWAR, Maeda has 9.6 the past 4 seasons, 8.9 as a SP. Here are some other guys in that range, over that same time period, all of whom have pitched in 2-4 pennant races during that time: Roark 10.3 Gio Gonzalez 10.0 Happ 9.8 Gausman 9.2 Maeda is decent pitcher, but let's not suggest his fWAR ranks on the Dodgers somehow elevate him.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    This is highly misleading without noting *all* of Maeda's postseason effectiveness has been in relief (and almost entirely in a ~1 inning relief role). Maeda's postseason career SP: 3 GS, 10.2 IP, 12 H, 8 R, 7 BB, 2 HBP, 12 K, 6.75 ERA -- the Dodgers lost all 3 games RP: 21 G, 22 IP, 15 H, 4 R, 5 BB, 27 K, 1.64 ERA -- the Dodgers are 11-10 in his relief appearances Assuming the Twins use Maeda as a starter, we have no idea what kind of postseason pitcher we are getting. And if the Twins opt to use him in relief instead, he's probably only as useful as the guys pitching before him, like Taylor Rogers in the 2019 postseason.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Imagine if the Twins today were working on a deal to trade a position player/prospect for another team's MLB-ready, upside pitching prospect like Graterol. How would you respond if the other team tried swapping out their Graterol for their version of Larnach, or Celestino + Rooker? Even if they can make the argument that Larnach and Graterol are similar in abstract prospect value, the Twins probably say no to that change because it compromises their core goals of making the trade in the first place, which is to get pitching. I suspect that's the position Boston is in. Despite trading Betts, they're not in "fire sale" mode -- they still have a lot of good players and a lot of player investments. They're reloading, and they're already getting back a young MLB outfielder from LA, and it's likely non-negotiable that they also get back an MLB ready upside pitcher to complete the deal. Prospects are a bit more interchangeable if it's a team like Detroit selling at the deadline, etc. (Although usually there are more potential bidders in those situations too.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree, I don't think a better trade was available right now. But that doesn't necessarily mean we had to make this trade. We now have 5 starters under guaranteed contract for 2019, plus Hill, plus Chacin; we have one less trade chip (and arguably our best pitching one). It does feel like the odds of us pursuing and completing an ace SP trade midseason just went down with this trade, although those odds naturally aren't very high to begin with. Which is an argument in favor of taking what we can get in Maeda, of course, but not necessarily feeling great about it, in the big picture.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    41st out of how many? He didn't qualify for the ERA title in 2019, so I'm not sure what criteria you are using. If you set it at 150 innings, Maeda was 44th in ERA -- but out of only 75 pitchers. I admit there's some skill involved throwing enough innings to qualify, but that's not a great case that his overall run prevention is notably better than league average. And of course, his raw ERA has benefitted from playing his home games in a clear pitcher's park, playing in a league without a DH, and also pitching out of the pen. The NL average SP ERA in 2019 was 4.33; Maeda's ERA as a SP in 2019 was 4.14. That's within 5%, even before adjusting for park. Using ERA- to include park adjustments, here are his numbers as a SP the past 3 seasons compared to the MLB average ERA- for SP: 2019: Maeda 99, MLB 101 2018: Maeda 100, MLB 101 2017: Maeda 105, MLB 103 Admittedly, he was better in 2016 (87 ERA-) but of course that was his rookie season 4 years ago now. It only improves his career mark to 97 (and 2016 weakens his case as a postseason SP too). I appreciate that there are good points to Maeda -- the K rate, the weak contact, etc. -- but his run prevention as a starter has clearly been right around league average. And even if his peripherals suggest that could improve (career FIP- of 90), any potential improvement has to be weighed against potential age decline at this point too.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, that's what some folks are pushing back against -- that we didn't necessarily have to pursue to "better value" in this case, particularly at the cost of Graterol. (Whose immediate trade value wasn't really impacted by our pen plans for him.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't mind the deal, but I think this is a fair take too. Looking at this deal, and the Rich Hill contract, and it seems like they are really trying to avoid paying for an ace in trade or FA. Which is fine, if you can still actually get ace-type performance, but I suspect these two moves might fall more on the "value" side of the ledger than the performance side.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Koufax was finished at age 30! But he has exceeded his estimated life expectancy so far, which might be good news for Maeda.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Has anyone spelled it "Madea" yet? That's another factor to consider.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, although it's close -- the 2020 salary difference between Ryu + Donaldson and Donaldson + Maeda (with likely incentives) may only be in the ~$10 mil range. That's not insurmountable if you're willing to convert Graterol into other assets. There'd be more work beyond 2020, of course.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If you have data to present, go ahead. But there is also data suggesting Maeda is in the average range. His career ERA- as a starter is 97, which is right in the career Odorizzi/Pineda career range. MLB SP cumulatively have been at 101 the past two seasons. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=18498,6397,5372&startdate=&enddate= And of course, Maeda is older than those guys, so he would seem more likely to decline from those numbers (or less likely to improve upon them). There's value in being an average starting pitcher, of course -- but there's also an argument for diminishing value for each average SP a team accumulates.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I do appreciate trying to factor in Donaldson somehow, but there's still a cost/value gap there. Ryu is still notably cheaper than Maeda + Donaldson - Graterol.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I usually don't look too much at splits, but leaving Dodger Stadium could be an interesting transition. Looks like Maeda has the biggest home-road ERA differential of any Dodger starter over 2016-2019 (min. 50 innings in each split). Home: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=9,184&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=true&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2016-03-01&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=5,-1 Road: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=184,10&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=true&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2016-03-01&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=5,-1
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The Dodgers also used Maeda exclusively in short relief in the 2017-2019 postseasons, when his incentives didn't matter. Seems doubtful they would do that if they really thought he was one of their 3-4 best starters. Maeda had IL stints each of the past 3 seasons -- not a lot of time, but he probably missed a couple starts each time. Also a short paternity leave -- see his transactions here: https://www.mlb.com/player/kenta-maeda-628317 He first moved to the pen in June 2017, after a poor start to the season and one of his IL stints. (And after a poor 2016 postseason.) At the time, the Dodgers 5-man rotation was Kershaw-Hill-Ryu-Wood-McCarthy, all of whom would finish 2017 with better numbers than Maeda. His next move to the pen was in August 2018, when Ryu came back from injury and Maeda was agian only the Dodgers 6th best starter at that point. And his third move to the pen was in September 2019, as Stripling, Urias, and Hill all re-joined the rotation -- and all had better number than Maeda, who was probably no better than 6th or maybe 7th on their SP depth chart at the time.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Maeda's average has been 26 starts and 147 innings. Of course, that's with shifting to the pen the past 3 years. But don't you need to include Graterol's value in Maeda's cost? It's not like we just signed Maeda as a free agent for this price. Estimates I've seen peg Graterol's value around $20 mil, which would make Maeda's cost pretty close to what the White Sox will be paying Keuchel. Even without Graterol, Maeda might not be far off Gibson in terms of salary and performance over the next few years. Calling it a "steal" makes it sound like we out-smarted the market.
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