Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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What do you mean, it didn't make a huge difference? It took the game from 1-0 to 8-0. We had Rogers, Romo, and May *fully rested*, and we turn first to our most-taxed reliever from game 1. Did you read the link? Duffey's velo was down from game 1 (not surprising). And Gregorious specifically said he was seeing his pitches better, having already seen him in game 1 (not surprising). I totally get Littell/Duffey in game 1. I'm not crazy about the Stashak/Gibson moves in game 1, but I can see a justification for that too -- but not if you're just going to go to Duffey again like that in game 2. The point of using Stashak/Gibson was to save Rogers/May/Romo so you wouldn't *have* to use Duffey like that again in game 2.- 56 replies
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- rocco baldelli
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How could you not be strongly opposed to Duffey being the 1st guy out of the pen, in a jam, in game 2? See the evidence from Fangraphs here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/35173-front-page-twins-alds-game-2-recap-nothing-works-twins-lose-12th-straight-to-yankees/?p=929648 That mistake was so obvious, it goes beyond "rookie manager learning the ropes" to me.
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Not true -- 11 teams ended their season with a victory already. I guess among playoff teams, only 1 will end with a victory, but how many will end with 3 straight (one-sided) postseason losses?
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Yes, tickets for unplayed postseason games will be refunded. See here: https://www.mlb.com/twins/tickets/postseason-refund#targetText=MINNESOTA%20TWINS%20NON%2DPLAYED%20POSTSEASON%20TICKET%20REFUND%20POLICY&targetText=Allow%204%2D6%20weeks%20for,for%20any%20unplayed%20postseason%20games. It's a fair question, though -- I've heard of teams only giving refunds in the form of credit on season tickets the following year (NFL?).
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On the Schoop/Arraez thing, I posted elsewhere, but I don't get that criticism either. Even as a "lefty masher" Schoop had basically the same AVG and a lower OBP vs LHP than Arraez this season, and Schoop's profile (power, strikeouts) was also largely redundant with several other pieces in our lineup. Arraez turned out to be one of our few effective bats this postseason, and perhaps his unique profile was a contributing factor -- the Yankees didn't seem to have an effective approach for him. (Schoop struck out in both of his pinch hit ABs, suggesting the general Yankee approach was working on him too.) Furthermore, it looks like perhaps Schoop is exploitable in the postseason / pressure spots? Career postseason OPS of .346 before 2019. Others have noted he wasn't exactly "clutch" this year either (-1.10 WPA, -0.58 WPA/LI, both worst on the team, with career negative marks too). Last October the Brewers only started him 1 time, and used him as a pinch hitter 3 times, over 10 postseason games. He shouldn't be an automatic start in the postseason vs a LHP, or anyone, really. I'm sure there's a point where Arraez's health may have warranted Schoop starting, but it's not clear to me that we were at that point, despite that looper dropping in the outfield in game 1.
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By what measure? Berrios pitched the most innings, but "better" implies quality, not quantity. And with a fully rested pen in a tied postseason game in the 5th inning, I think we were looking for quality rather than quantity too. By any objective view, Rogers and Duffey were better *quality* pitchers than Berrios this season. Odorizzi has an argument. If you weigh the last 2 months, May and Littell would enter the conversation too, maybe even Romo.
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I don't quite understand the Berrios criticism. I guess he set down the bottom of their order in the 4th, but he didn't look particularly good before that, and he was already at 88 pitches with the heart of the Yankee order (Judge-Gardner-Encarnacion-etc.) coming up for a third time. Those 3 batters in particular were already 3-for-5 with a walk in the game (including two doubles from Encarnacion). The regular season move might be to try to milk another inning out of Berrios, but pulling him in favor of your fully rested pen seems like a solid postseason move.
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I'm pretty sure Rocco checked out before the 9th inning of game 3 (hence how Romo was inexplicably left in for a second inning and a season-high pitch count). So maybe May's appearance beyond that point doesn't count somehow?
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Now there's a dragon that Dave St. Peter can really slay!
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This article highlights some of the obvious flaws in Baldelli's decision to turn to Duffey first in game 2: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/disciplined-yankees-dominate-twins-again/
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Do you take the same view of the 1987 and 1991 postseasons?
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FWIW, Slowey never made a postseason appearance at all. And Baker never got a start in the postseason. Just a few mop-up innings in relief in 2010, game 3. (Plus game 163 vs Detroit in 2009, of course.) I actually kind of wish Baker had gotten a postseason start those years, maybe in place of Duensing in 2010. I suppose you could also list Blackburn and Bonser in this group, although Blackburn did well in his postseason turn vs the Yankees in 2009 (plus his game 163 vs the White Sox in 2008). Silva? Lohse? If they go the route of the Rays, I suspect we'll see more rando starters in our future, although with quick hooks in bullpen-style games.
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I hate to burst any bubbles, but this category also included Radke, Liriano, Pavano, Baker, and even Blackburn...
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Too bad baseball doesn't have a "Quick Lane Bowl"
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- twins vs yankees
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I thought it was interesting choice by the director, meant to evoke memories of the Phil Cuzzi inning in 2009 which had the same result.
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You are not alone! In fact, the Twins will be taking the field to this song at Target Field tonight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URyqGD99Owg
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Personally, I wouldn't put too much stock in a ~46 inning sample spread out over 7 years. At least not enough to flip Odo and Dobnak in the rotation, potentially put us in an 0-2 hole, and make Odo on short rest for a potential game 5. FWIW, Odo's only made 3 starts there over the last 3 years, and two were "quality starts". I would hope he's improved since he first couple years in the league...
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FWIW, Pineda may have known of his pending suspension back then (although that's not clear either), but the team most definitely did not. Teams aren't notified until just before it becomes official, after the appeal. (Which makes sense, as a player who successfully appeals may not want the suspicion to impact his relationship with his employer, future contracts, etc. Although it does make planning more difficult for the team.)
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You could always learn to eat danishes while watching baseball!
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Is Odorizzi a notably worse pitcher on the road? Or Dobnak notably worse at home? I guess I don't see it as a factor worth swapping them over.
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How so? Is this the ground-ball-vs-fly-ball thing? Odorizzi's previous starts vs NYY this season point to the futility of relying too much on that when forecasting a single game. Whatever edge it might provide, it doesn't seem worth it if it increases your risk of going down 0-2 in the series, and not having Odorizzi available on full rest for a potential game 5. And even if you do go with the Dobnak-in-game-2 strategy, don't you have to go to someone other than Duffey again as your first guy out of the pen?
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I don't think there was any *real* doubt about Arraez's ankle, after the first couple days. I think they were just staying tight-lipped to impact the Yankees planning. (Just like the Yankees were tight-lipped about a few of their bubble guys.) Arraez is a rookie, but one with a pretty impressive skill set of his own that seems to complement the rest of the Twins lineup more than Schoop's. And I feel like we're massively overrating Schoop to claim this as a questionable move. Schoop can be a useful MLB player, but keep in mind, within the last 15 months, he has recently been salary dumped, benched by another playoff team, and non-tendered. He had a career postseason OPS of .346 coming into this series, over 36 PA. Again, I'm not trying to pick on Schoop too much -- I think the Schoop/Arraez decision could have gone either way. The Odorizzi/Dobnak decision, a little less so, and the Duffey game 2 decision, after Stashak's and Gibson's innings in game 1 -- I still don't understand it. That's all.
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I did watch it, and I watched it again before I made that post. It was a "looper" more than a high pop-up, and it landed pretty far into the outfield as you can see in the spray chart graphic. The second baseman has to face the infield enough to track it, which sort of limits the speed at which he can go after it. I wouldn't call it routine or easy. Arraez almost made the play. It's quite possible that Schoop would have made the play. If it had been hit just a little higher or further, it's Rosario's play. To me, the outcome of that play hardly invalidates starting Arraez over Schoop.
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Although Schoop has a higher rate of grounding into double plays anyway (even vs LHP this season). And even if the double wasn't well-hit, Arraez's ability to make contact is probably more useful in the Twins lineup, than Schoop doing a lesser impersonation of Sano, Rosario, etc. I mean, I could see this one going either way. I'm not arguing that starting Schoop would have been a mistake. And I know that starting Arraez could have been a mistake, if his ankle sprain was affecting him too much. But based on what I've seen, that doesn't seem to be the case.
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I don't know if it was that routine -- it was really in no-man's land: If it had been high enough for Arraez to get under it, then Rosario probably has a better play on it anyway. And in any case, that ball dropping doesn't matter if Cron catches a relatively routine throw from the second baseman.
