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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, there will still be a Rule 5 draft. There was even one in 1994, during the strike! The 2001 Rule 5 draft occurred without a CBA too -- it expired in early November that year (that was the "contraction" offseason). In general terms, "once a CBA expires, an employer has a statutorily imposed duty to maintain the status quo until its bargaining obligation is either satisfied by way of a new CBA or it is suspended while the bargaining parties are at a bargaining impasse." https://www.laboremploymentlawblog.com/2020/04/articles/national-labor-relations-act/expired-cba-mv-transportation-raytheon-network/ The Rule 5 draft fits well within the definition of "status quo." And with a Dec. 1st expiration, I doubt there would be any kind of "suspension of bargaining obligation" by the usual Rule 5 date (Dec. 12th-ish).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I was wondering if Rogers would welcome a trade to the NL West. He'd get to play some games in his home state of Colorado, and he could play against (or even be teammates with) his brother.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Dustin May... a highly regarded SP prospect who quickly acclimated to MLB -- even postseason -- and was starting to dominate when he got hurt. 142 ERA+ in 113 MLB IP so far. Yes, TJS means he's out until late 2022, but it also means his 2023-2025 arbitration salaries are going to be held down too. (Which could make him a good target for signing a reasonable extension at some point.) And it's probably too early after surgery to really worry that the Dodgers would be trying to sell a lemon. Would be fascinating if the Dodgers were actually willing to deal him!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Great article, but would this be better described as "trade Happ and cash to the Phillies for a PTBNL or cash"? Aren't transactions generally written with the assumption that the acquiring team assumes the full remaining salary, unless cash is sent along with the player? Your other trade descriptions seem to follow that convention. So if we're covering any of Happ's remaining salary, we should be sending cash (although that doesn't preclude Philly from eventually sending some cash back too).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Something to keep in mind with Wade: where would he have played here? He's not a CF, and he's a left-handed bat who still struggles vs LHP (up to 0-for-29 for his MLB career). We already have Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff, and Arraez as left-handed bats in the outfield corners and at first base. There's been enough injuries that he probably would have seen some action but not a lot. Even in San Francisco, Wade was mostly parked on the bench or on the AAA shuttle until 1B Brandon Belt got hurt, which opened up a temporary platoon opportunity with Darin Ruf. FWIW, Belt is expected back soon, at which point Wade's playing time may fall off sharply. I echo the others in saying that the most frustrating thing here isn't Wade getting away, it's us failing to properly evaluate (pre-trade) or develop (post-trade) Shaun Anderson.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure about this -- I certainly don't want them to hold onto a guy like Shaun Anderson past his expiration date, in the vain hope they can somehow salvage the trade. He's currently pitching just as badly for Baltimore as he did for us.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    fire sale /ˈfī(ə)r ˌsāl/ noun a sale of goods remaining after the destruction of commercial premises by fire. a sale of goods or assets at a very low price, typically when the seller is facing bankruptcy. No fire and no bankruptcy -- no fire sale here!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    A rare prize which hasn't been awarded to a MLB player since 1980, at least! https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rookeji01.shtml
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if Thorpe clears waivers, he will be eligible for minor league free agency (which requires parts of 7 seasons on a minor league roster or injured list). Smeltzer would not be eligible yet, since he only has parts of 6 seasons in the minors. (2020 still counts as a minor league season for this purpose too.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Who are these pitchers to which you are referring? I tend to doubt that the Twins are taking on more TJS pitchers than other clubs. It's just a reality that a lot of pitchers have TJS these days -- you can't really avoid them. And I'm not sure that TJS pitchers should be avoided as a general rule in modern MLB either -- plenty of them have had the surgery and come back just fine (i.e. deGrom 10 years ago). FWIW, Strotman's TJS was over 3 years ago now -- it's likely only an "issue" right now because the 2020 minor league season was cancelled. Ryan, likely the better prospect of the two, hasn't had the surgery.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciate the creativity, and that would be a good deal for the Twins, but I'm not sure it would have been a good fit for the Rays. Their overall frugality means they don't have a pressing need to unload any contracts right now -- notice that they are taking on Cruz's remaining salary, and just swapped Rich Hill for a comparable contract too. Kiermaier is still producing (defensively) for them, so they'd probably rather keep him and hang on to their better prospects.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Some background on the "Guardians" choice: https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/cleveland-guardians-trendy-pick-cleveland-indians-new-name/95-7482a89e-5143-4043-9bdd-8f5e550a7c41
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Faucher has had a pretty disastrous AA season so far. 19 games, 30.2 IP, 29 runs, 24 walks. 42 K's, but Faucher is a good example of why K/9 can be a poor metric, compared to K%. His K/9 looks like it is inflated by about 14% due to extra hits/walks and failing to record outs.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Tampa likely would have kept one of the prospects then.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    As mentioned, Fangraphs gives these two pitchers 45 FV grades. On their respective midseason lists, the Rays had 18 such prospects, so they've got the depth to make this kind of deal. (The Twins only had 8, although we just had a few graduations and the Rays haven't quite yet.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    For tonight's lineup, Donaldson moves into the DH spot and Astudillo will start at 3B. Twins Daily staff is staking out the Omaha airport to see which Saint(s) will be coming to Minnesota for tomorrow's game.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs gives both new pitchers a 45 FV (Future Value) score. That would put them ahead of every Twins minor league pitcher right now except Balazovic, Duran, and Canterino. Edit: actually Winder has a 45 FV too in their midseason update: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=min&type=0
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably too late to activate anyone for tonight (the Saints are about to play in Omaha). Cave is on the 10th day of his rehab assignment though, so he'd be my guess to take Cruz's spot in Minnesota tomorrow over Rooker. (Position player rehab assignments can last for up to 20 days, but I haven't heard anything to suggest Cave will need the full 20 days, he seems to be hitting pretty well and playing CF.) They could activate Cave and demote Celestino, of course, separate from Rooker replacing Cruz.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Over in the forums, @Musk21 shared an interesting Sports Illustrated article on Joe Ryan from late May 2021: https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/05/24/pitching-prospects-college-joe-ryan-the-opener
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    More Cruz trade discussion under the article here: https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/52592-twins-trade-nelson-cruz-to-the-rays-for-two-aaa-starting-pitchers/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Baseball Trade Values pegs this as an overpay for the Rays, although in the comments the site owner mentions that their value estimate for Joe Ryan was a little too high for some reason: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-53895/
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Drew Strotman is on the 40-man already, in his first option year. His run prevention has been solid at AAA but his K/BB rates aren't great -- looks like he's mainly been preventing HR. Joe Ryan could probably slot into the Twins rotation right now based on his AAA stats -- very strong K/BB rates. He's not on the 40-man but he is Rule 5 eligible this winter so he should get added shortly.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Preface It's often said that you can't spell "Twins" without "win" but that's not strictly true, if you spell "Twins" incorrectly. And doing something incorrectly would be a fitting tribute to the 2021 Twins. Some also say the 2021 Twins are hapless. That's not true either -- we have one of the only two Happs in major league history. In that sense, we could be considered "Happful". His full name is James Anthony Happ but he famously goes by J.A., prounounced "Jay". If I was his coach, or I played one on TV, I'd ask him to try going by "Ja" like rapper and "The Fast and the Furious" actor Ja Rule, or like the Rastafarian god "Jah" -- like a new pitch grip, it just might extend his career by a few more years. (The other Happ in MLB is the Cubs' Ian Edward, or I.E. Happ. But only one Happ actually goes by his initials, i.e. J.A. Happ.) Happ (ours), with his grey beard, would even be the perfect candidate to star in a topical modern reboot of an old baseball movie, 1949's "It Happens Every Spring" (which could be stylized "It HAPPens Every Spring"): In the original film, a scientist discovers a substance which, when applied to baseballs, makes them impossible to hit with a wood bat. The scientist uses his discovery to become a successful major league pitcher, until his secret is outed by Philadelphia Athletics third baseman Josiah Donaldson. With the substance no longer available, Josiah hits a home run off of the scientist/pitcher, and radio broadcasts pick up his controversial "can't repel wood anymore" exclamation on the field. In the movie's climax, Josiah and the scientist/pitcher grapple with each other on a train platform after the game (although I won't spoil the ending for you, primarily because I don't actually remember it and none of this may actually happen in the movie). Minnesota (39-52, 4th place, 16 GB) Starting pitcher: J.A. "i.e., Not I.E." Happ, LHP, 5-4, 5.90 ERA Detroit (42-51, 3rd place, 14 GB) Starting pitcher: Wily "Willy Not Wile E." Peralta, RHP, 2-1, 2.08 ERA I may not be around to post lineups. (I tried to look up projected lineups for the Twins-Tigers game, and now Google thinks I have a gambling problem.) If someone else can post the lineups when they become available, it would be much appreciated.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly though, by setting a higher threshold of return on Cruz (as well as players with 2022+ control), you're really only selling the worst-performing veterans. Fangraphs rest-of-season WAR projections: Simmons 1.1 Pineda 0.7 Happ 0.5 Robles 0.1 Colomé 0.0 That's only 2.4 WAR now, which could be less than 2 by trade deadline day. That means impact on 2021 W-L record could be minimal, and improved W-L goals can still be achievable alongside 2022 development. Which gets to my point upthread, that our goals are not mutually exclusive! But why push the pitching in a lost season? Isn't the point of "babying" to evaluate and develop toward 2022? And with Ober's career innings, and the missed minor league season in 2020, I can't say I disagree. "Babying" could allow us to evaluate/develop more pitchers in MLB too -- could even be an opportunity for a 6-man rotation.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Certainly team records can finish close together. But where they bunch up can be different in different years (note you cited a different range for the 2018 season / 2019 draft -- and actually I think it was 4th and 8th separated by 3.5 games, as the 9th worst team was actually 9.5 ahead of the 4th worst in 2018). And that bunching is obviously outside any individual team's control. I doubt 2022 draft position is on the Twins radar right now, in terms of influencing 2021 decisions in either direction. No, a 78 win team won't have a noticeable advantage in free agency over a 75 win team, or a 73 win team, etc. That's why I was specifically comparing it to 68, since that was the likely target for the 6th pick, while Fangraphs projects us at 77 wins. It's difficult to isolate most variables in free agency but that doesn't mean they don't exist. There's no bright line, but approaching a 10-win gap will be something that free agents notice -- nothing unique to Nelson Cruz about that. The lesser team can still land FA, but perhaps they have to overpay, or settle for a lesser choice, and/or make a compelling case as a team on the rise. Of course wooing free agents isn't a reason to start Happ over a ready Winder. Those kind of moves can't even cause a 10 win gap at this point -- Fangraphs suggests more like 3 if we trade all of our pending FA and insert replacement level guys in their place. But as a fan, it's among the reasons I don't mind a balanced approach to the remaining 2021 season -- looking at our roster, there's no reason we can't develop talent and set ourselves up best for 2022 while simultaneously improving our 2021 record.
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