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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Former Twin Randy Rosario just struck out Christian Yelich with 2 runners on. Former Twin Brandon Kintzler followed, though, and gave up a run-scoring single to Ryan Braun... And former Twin Jaime Garcia is on to pitch the 9th for the Cubs, down 3-1. I wonder what it would take for the Cubs to bring in former Twin Brian Duensing and his 7.65 ERA?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Cleveland actually has a better Pythag record than Oakland this season, and only 1 win behind the Yankees. By BaseRuns (sequencing), they are within 1 win of Oakland too. They're behind Boston and Houston for sure, but Fangraphs still gives them a 41.9% chance of beating Houston in the ALDS, and 21.4% chance of representing the AL in the World Series.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The "good upper level prospect" in this equation would have to be Lewis or maybe Kiriloff. There is no way that Odorizzi, Gonsalves, and, say, Gordon could fetch a "top young starter that can be a big part of the staff for many years." I'm not even sure if that would be enough to rent an old starter.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, in the context of the league non-pitcher K% jumping 1.8% since 2014, Odorizzi's 2018 increase may not be particularly meaningful.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, you can open them in a new private/incognito tab/window in your browser to circumvent most newspaper limits.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Not directly -- BA taps local beat writers for some team-specific lists, that's all.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that Mauer and Morneau's prime ages/health overlapped is pretty much coicidence. Mauer was just fine in 2012-2013 without much of a supporting cast (Morneau was a shell of his former self by then), and when Morneau missed the ends of the 2009 and 2010 seasons, etc.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    No difference, unfortunately. Keep in mind that Mauer followed that "foul double" with a single, so we really only lost 1 base. The next 2 batters singled too before we squandered the inning, so perhaps that 1 extra base would have led to 1 run -- but it was only the top of the inning, and Teixeira led off the bottom of the inning with a HR anyway, with 9th inning hero A-Rod on deck. The mostly likely outcome of a correct call by Cuzzi would have been a slightly longer Twins loss. And even if the Twins somehow won that game, it would have only evened the series at 1-1. We still would have needed to win 2 of the next 3 to actually change the outcome of the series, which was going to be a virtual impossibility given how poorly we were hitting. Terrible call, and rightly remembered and ridiculed -- but not a difference-maker.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    There are certainly some strong AAA players who don't get enough of a chance in MLB, but there is no evidence suggesting Vargas is among that group. Vargas has a career .789 OPS at AAA, in 1297 PA, ages 24-27. 859 MLB PA during that time seems plenty reasonable, and his .748 OPS in MLB is pretty much exactly what you would expect from him too. And it is pretty close to replacement level for a MLB 1B/DH. There are worse ways to fill out your AAA roster, though, so the Twins tried twice to get him through waivers this past spring and succeeded the second time.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Sooner? Vargas was called up straight from AA. A chance? He did get 859 PA with the Twins. I'm not sure how much more a marginal 1B/DH prospect deserves. (FWIW, Vargas cleared waivers this spring too, suggesting that other teams share the Twins evaluation of him.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, due to the nature of the system, Buxton will likely get a raise anyway. He's looking at least ~$1 mil or so for 2019 salary. I think Nick's contention is, if he submits a figure at $1.5 mil or something, then just settle there. The extra year of control has been secured, the message sent, the fire lit or whatever else you want to call it. There is nothing to be gained further by arguing with him over a couple hundred thousand bucks at this point, which might represent 0.2% of our payroll and wouldn't be a disincentive to him signing an extension down the road either. Consider it like a grievance settlement without the acrimony, or just the MLB pay he could have received after roster expansion in 2018 (while the team still withholds the more important service time).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    We have no idea of the terms of the proposed extension which he turned down -- it may have been, and may remain, a smart business decision on his part. Given that the front office has yet to ink an extension with anyone, perhaps they are not offering fair terms yet? Or they aren't generating much long-term buy-in from the players yet? (Also, Buxton extension talks are not going to happen this offseason. There isn't really a figure that could satisfy both parties at this point in time. That's not a fault of Buxton or the Twins, it is just a reality of the situation. Teams and players just don't sign "buy low" extensions, at least not at this kind of low.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    My criticism is that Wilson was called up on May 5th. Astudillo stopped catching on June 2nd. He didn't get called up to MLB until the end of June when our season had pretty much already spiraled out of control. I would have liked to see if Astudillo could have provided a spark no later than the beginning of June.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    LaMarre is sporting a .393 BABIP, and still only has a 94 wRC+.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll try to find it, but insurance can kick in at all sorts of levels depending on the policy. For example, the Twins collected insurance when Nolasco missed time, even though it was less than a full season: http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/07/08/twinsights-insurance-policy-covers-twins-against-extended-absence-for-ricky-nolasco/
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, I read that the Cubs are already getting insurance money on Darvish too. Won't help with the luxury tax hit, of course.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    He's still got 4 years of team control, but he should be arbitration eligible this winter as a super 2. Plouffe got close to $20 mil total through 4 years of arbitration.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    You've got a point about being overmatched, but service time wouldn't really be an issue. They are both pretty much guaranteed to be added to the 40-man by November, and neither one is likely to open 2019 in the majors, which would "pause" their service time clock and render any service time accrued in September 2018 mostly irrelevant.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking for more details on his no-trade, I found this article from 2 years ago: "Diamondbacks Must Admit Defeat This Offseason By Trading Zack Greinke" https://www.forbes.com/sites/benberkon/2016/10/11/diamondbacks-must-admit-defeat-trade-zack-greinke/ I feel like trading Greinke might be one of those evergreen topics of discussion, regardless of likelihood.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's my suspicion too, although it doesn't particularly matter how Greinke felt about his time in KC and MIL. His current salary is high enough that it acts as a de facto no trade clause for a lot of teams near the luxury tax threshold. For example, per this list at Cot's, roughly 12 teams had less "tax space" in 2018 than Greinke's current annual salary: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRghSG2xROOkgctuzj56pUSP6zCxUUQ1i7LND0jnficQ0TPtIY8OhNl3AN_StqMvBCHnO_qOXKZeTbE/pubhtml Not sure how that list will look for 2018, or when/how Greinke's list of 15 teams is set, but it's possible that his no-trade blocks every non-warm-weather team that could take on his salary without too much trouble (like the Twins). The only thing I have read about the clause is that apparently Texas was not included on it last winter, which would conform with this theory (Texas is warm weather and not too close to the luxury tax threshold).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think fans / talk radio are quick to discuss extremes like a rebuild in reaction to factors like a poor farm system and falling short of the playoffs, but in practice most teams don't pursue those paths without stronger conditions (like the MLB roster falling apart too). Fans / talk radio seem to underrate the "middle ground" of having a decent MLB roster and being in the contention mix. Their division isn't that loaded -- there is LA, but COL and SF are flawed and SD is still rebuilding. And MIL and STL aren't that scary as wild card competitors either. I could perhaps see them re-signing Corbin, and turning around and offloading Greinke to balance the books. But that's a tricky balancing act -- Corbin might be getting an inflated contract based on this career year, and once they have a deal with Corbin, they will lose a lot of leverage in moving Greinke. And the no-trade clause could really mess with their leverage further -- 15 teams (perhaps including the Twins) might be off the table right away. If they can get nothing back but salary relief for Greinke, or even have to eat some cash, it may not be the best course of action anymore -- letting Corbin walk and keeping Greinke might be better both for their farm system (comp picks for Corbin) and for their long-term financial outlook (Greinke's remaining deal may be shorter than what Corbin gets, and maybe even cheaper in total dollars). I know people have been talking about moving Greinke, but a more realistic target for that kind of salary dump move would proably be a Mike Leake circa 2017 or AJ Burnett circa 2011 type. If I get a moment, I'll look around for some candidates.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Greinke might be a long shot, but Scherzer is a virtual impossibility. Arguably the best pitcher in MLB, could win a 3rd consecutive Cy Young -- I can't even begin to imagine what kind of package they would demand in trade, even if they somehow decided they didn't want to pair him with a young talent like Juan Soto for the foreseeable future. (FWIW, Scherzer also earns full no-trade rights at the end of the 2019 season.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Diamondbacks top 4 position players in bWAR right now are controlled for 2019 (and all but Goldschmidt for 2020 or beyond too). On the pitching side, Corbin would be a definite loss, but they've built a pretty deep staff with Greinke too -- they are right next to the Cubs for the top team ERA+ in the NL. I'd be pretty surprised if they went full rebuild right now.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I was just cautioning that getting Greinke right now might look deceptively simple, but in fact it probably has comparable difficulty as signing Machado (especially with that no-trade clause looming). I think that's worth noting, as opposed to a plan that, say, targets a group of 4 mid-tier FA or something.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Was Aldi last offseason? Maybe the Twins need to aim for Lunds and Byerlys this offseason. I wonder if TR still pops into Dollar General every winter, out of habit.
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