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LA Vikes Fan

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Everything posted by LA Vikes Fan

  1. LA Vikes Fan
    You very well might be right about that. I wouldn't give up a high end prospect for him. But I would give up a prospect not in the top 15.
  2. LA Vikes Fan
    I would like to see a rotation add but it's only likely possible with someone on a lesser contract like Tyler Anderson or Erik Fedde, and the prospect cost is going to be high on both, Not holding my breath. No Kikuchi for me. A bullpen add would really help and it doesn't have to be a high end piece liek Estevez or Tanner Scott They would both be great but again, the prospect cost will be high. I'd be happy with Kirby Yates, Aroldis Chapman, or Lucas Erceg if we don't have to overspend too badly. Heck, even Chafin or Beeks might help. No need to augment the lineup at trade deadline pricing.
  3. LA Vikes Fan
    I think we sometimes fail to celebrate the good as we strive for the great. The Twins are 53-40 with 3 games left to the ASB. That equates to 92 plus wins. And that's after playing what appears to be the tougher half of the schedule. The Twins have been a very good team so far this year. That's something we should celebrate. Not only that, we've done a great job of incorporating a solid to very good youthful core going forward. The pitching staff has Lopez, Ryan, and Ober in the rotation followed by a couple of possibilities in SWR and Paddack. We have Duran, Jax, and Sands in the BP, Both areas need depth but the top pieces are there. The lineup is even better. We could drop all of the veteran depth and roll with a core of Lewis, Lee, Miranda, Correa, Buxton, Castro, and Jeffers next year. Larnach, Wallner, and Martin are more iffy but may pan out, and that's without even thinking about Julien, Keirsey, or Camargo, and there's more farther down. This team is light years ahead of where it was 3-5 years ago. This all seems less exciting because Cleveland is playing at a 101 win pace. We would be more excited about the Twins if Cleveland was going to win 85 games. Still, if someone had said I can give you a deal where the Twins will win 90-95 games this year, all I would have said where do I sign? Fun first half and a real shot at an even more fun second half. Yeah, injuries could kill the team and yeah, those of you in the viewing area are getting totally hosed by the TV situation (I'm in California so I can watch all the games on MLB.com except when they paly the Dodgers or Angels). All in all, good times. I hope they last.
  4. LA Vikes Fan
    I don't want to jinx the guy, but Kepler's better second-half may have already begun. He is slashing .375/.425/.417 (.792) over the last seven games. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage have been steadily rising over the last 25 games. It looks to me like he has gone back to the "hit live drives, use the middle of the field, and hit ground balls through the left side" approach that really worked for him last year in the second half. I disagree that he started to sell out for power in the second half last year, I think it's just the reverse. He stopped selling out for power in the 2024 second half and became a line drive hitter. Hence all the doubles and higher batting average, and lookee here, he still had some home runs. I'm not surprised that his launch angle is higher this year because I think he was back to selling out to hit home runs at the start of the season. That's the same thing that killed him in 2020 until the second half of 2023. Now, the statistics and the eye test both suggest to me that he's back to being the line drive hitter that best suits his game and the results are beginning to show. I've also seen several games where he hit two or three line drives but only one of them fell for hit so I think this is sustainable. I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that Kepler will have a second-half with an OPS of over .750 and it could even be much better than that. That's a guy you want to keep around, especially as well as he plays on defense. I was one in the camp last year of "DFA Kepler" but I think the guy actually is worth having around at least through the end of this season. I think the thought of trading him at the deadline for anything less than immediate late inning quality bullpen help would be the definition of insanity. We need him now and should only trade him if we get a significant immediate upgrade in our pitching staff in return. As for re-signing him, that's a much tougher question given who we have in the minors that could potentially replace him. I wouldn't be adverse to a one or two-year deal at around $10 million-$12 million per year, or even a three year deal that started 12 million, then went down to something like 10 million, then went on to something like 7 or 8 million as he ages. He certainly has value as a solid corner outfielder now aging into maybe a good 4th outfielder and that's what guys like that cost, if not more. It's a little tough given all of the outfield candidates we have in the minors but, as one other poster mentioned, all those guys are only prospects at this point. The "only prospects" label includes both Larnach and Wallner IMHO. We don't even at this point have established LF unless Castro gets moved there as he get squeezed out of the infield by Maranda and Lee. Keeping Kepler around for another couple years could make a lot of sense.
  5. LA Vikes Fan
    Two targets interest me, depending on the price. IF we actually could get Kirby Yates for a "blocked prospect like Severino, I would do that in a heartbeat. Severino is very unlikely to ever be seen in a Twins uniform barring a whole bunch of injuries. He is exactly the type of player we should be looking to deal. Keirsey may fall into that same category unfortunately, although I would like to see him get a shot with the Twins. I just don't see how that can happen this year with Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Margot, Martin, and now Wallner ahead of him, not to mention Castro who may need an OF spot next year as Lee and Miranda squeeze him out of the IF. Keirsey deserves his shot this year or next and I just don't see him getting that with the Twins unless Larnach or Wallner is traded., Frankly, he would be a perfect trade candidate to a weaker team like the Marlins for BP help. The other guy is Michael Lorenzen. Could be a good #3 or #4 starter for the rest of the year. The Twins have been incredibly lucky not to have any significant injuries in the starting rotation. That probably is not going to last for the rest of the season. Moreover, I think the wheels are going to come off at some point for either Paddack or SWR, or even both, since they just haven't pitched the kind of innings in the last couple years that suggest they can take the ball every fifth day for the next 2 1/2 months. SWR can go to AAA or Paddack to the BP to create a rotation spot if we don't have an injury. Both Lorenzen and Yates have affordable $4.5 million contracts for the season, so the Twins would only be on the hook for 2 to 2.1 million depending on when they were acquired. Both would be good gets at that kind of price IMHO.
  6. LA Vikes Fan
    You may be right about that and that would leave out an SP addition. That doesn't prevent us from going the other pitching route of trying for a lock down back end by getting another high octane back end reliever for the rest of the year at 2-4m remaining on a contract like Carlos Estevez (6.750m contract, roughly 3m remaining on 7/31), Tanner Scott (5,7m contract, roughly 2.35m remaining), or Kirby Yates if Texas trades him (4.5m contract, roughly 1.8m remaining), or even a lesser light like AJ Puk (1.8m contract, about 800k remaining) or Lucas Erceg (750k contract, 350k remaining). The big question is the cost. I would be willing to trade a top 30, but not top 15 prospect plus an A ball guy for any of the top 3, maybe a 20-30 prospect for Erceg or Puk.
  7. LA Vikes Fan
    Hey, Stewart is great for those 30 innings a year that he can actually pitch without injury. He's pitched 13 so far. I say let's save those last 15-20 bullets for appearances in August, September and October. I'm fine with him not coming back until August 1 or even August 15. I think if he comes back on July 15 he won't last out the season.
  8. LA Vikes Fan
    Agreed. IF Wallner and Lee play like this, the choice isn't Wallner v. Margot when Lewis and Martin are ready. The choices are Lewis v. Farmer (easy call), and Margot v. Martin (much tougher call). My guess would be that Farmer is traded to a team that needs a depth IF like the Dodgers, maybe even for that MVP player "cash considerations" and Martin goes back to AAA. Margot is really hitting LH pitching well. I don't see him being DFA'd and I don't see anyone trading for him.
  9. LA Vikes Fan
    No on those 3. Gausman and Bassitt would be great but I just don't see the Twins paying the prospect price AND taking on a $20m plus contract. Kikuchi is interesting but uninspiring and is only a rental. I have a 2 word answer on what SP the Twins should target- Tyler Anderson of the Angels. Classic crafty LH that needs a good D behind him, pitching very well this year. Good in 2022 in front of a strong Dodger defense, not so great in 2023 in front of a bad Angels defense that is better this year since they found a SS. $13m a year contract through 2025. Angels need OF bats in the worst way, might take a package centered around Larnach and a decent but not top 20 minor league prospect or a better hitting prospect (10-20) plus Keirsey. I like Larnach but he and Wallner are a little redundant and we are going to need an OF spot for Castro when Lewis returns since Lee will probably move to 2B, so we should at least think about trading one of them. I think Wallner has the higher ceiling (and lower floor). While we're at it, we should be talking to the Angels about Carlos Estevez and at least kicking the tires on Luis Rengifo, Both are available and neither should cost a top 10 prospect.
  10. LA Vikes Fan
    This guy might be worth a shot if the price is a AA or below player without huge upside, but no more than that. I do think we need another LH reliever, someone better than Funderburk or Okert. I just don’t think this guy really fits the bill and there’s a big risk that he just had a hot month or two and is more like the 4.56 ERA guy he’s been lately. I wouldn’t want to give up much to see if he can go back to where he was earlier in the year. Certainly nobody on the top 30 prospect list. I know I keep saying this, but we need to be talking to the Angels about Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estevez. The Angels need OF bats in the worst way so they might be willing to take a package centered around Larnach OR Keirsey plus Schobel or something equivalent. Anderson has a reasonably priced contract for next year. Estevez is just a rental but he has been lights out this season.
  11. LA Vikes Fan
    Arguably now is the perfect time for Martin to go on the IL and Wallner to get an audition. With the Twins likely facing all RH opposing starters from here until the ASB there should be room to get Wallner starts in 5 of the next 7 with the off day rotating between Santana, Castro, Larnach, Lee, Miranda, and Kepler. Margot and Farmer will be limited to late inning switches to face LH relievers. Margot could go to CF for Buxton once or twice, but I'd see prefer to him planted on the bench against RH pitching and Castro playing CF with Lee at 2B against RH starters. We need to know who can be counted on as a LH hitter against RH pitching in the second half. Here's Wallner's chance to show he can be and move ahead of Larnach. Let's give him his shot. While we're at it, I wouldn't mind giving Julien a shot as long as it doesn't take away ABs from Miranda, Lee, or Wallner.
  12. LA Vikes Fan
    Beat me to it. Martin to 10 day IL with an oblique strain and Wallner up. Seems like a pretty straight forward "one guy got hurt and another takes his place" kind of deal. As they say, move along Johnny, nothing to see here . . . Will be interesting to see if Wallner starts today. Maybe Correa gets an off day, Lee plays short, Miranda 3B, Wallner in LF and Larnach DH?
  13. LA Vikes Fan
    Interesting. What did you hear about Wallner? Who's going on the IL/going to AAA?
  14. LA Vikes Fan
    This initial sounded interesting until I tried to figure out where and how Winker would play. after looking at things, I wouldn't do it because I'd rather have the DH ABs for the one of the Miranda, Lee, Santana and Lewis group or your only playing 2 of the 4 with Castro at 2B. Even worse, to play all 4 of those guys you have to take up 2B, 1B, 3B, and DH, and that means moving Castro to LF so there still isn't a place for Winker, Larnach doesn't play, and all the AAA guys have no place to go. I just don't see how Winker fits unless there's serious injury. Now, if Larnach or Kepler gets traded, then things get much more interesting. I don't see that happening though.
  15. LA Vikes Fan
    Saw the same. He looks ok behind the plate though.
  16. LA Vikes Fan
    Is it just me or does anyone else think that Lee should move up to the #2 or #3 hole? Larnach has been kind of meh there. Go Castro, Correa, Lee, Miranda, Santana, Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Catcher. easy tomorrow since Vasquez will be catching. I do have to admit though that changing the lineup when they're scoring 6 runs a game may be a little much. still, I would like to see Lee moved up.
  17. LA Vikes Fan
    I hear you and agree with your analysis of where Festa is now but I don't agree on the gloomy prognosis. Right now, Festa is a guy with a plus slider, slightly better than average fastball, and no third pitch who needs to work on his command. He's also only 24 and in his first full season at AAA. In 17 AAA starts over the last 2 seasons, he pitched 72 innings and given up 29 earned runs for an overall ERA of 3.625 in a hitter's league. HIs SO rate per 9 is above 11 but his BABIP is a concerning .350. I agree that he needs a third pitch or at best he's a reliever at the MLB level. That lack of a good 3rd pitch also helps explain the high BABIP. IF he develops that change up to an average MLB change up, he's a 4th or 5th starter at the MLB level. He does that and improves his fastball movement and he could be a mid-rotation or better guy,. I think the odds are actually 50/50 or so that Festa can develop that pitch and be a viable MLB starter. I say we give him at least through 2025 to find out.
  18. LA Vikes Fan
    Transaction is Festa down to AAA, Josh Winder up to the Twins.
  19. LA Vikes Fan
    I'm interested in any of the 3 with a preference for Garcia due to the years of control.
  20. LA Vikes Fan
    The verdict is in. Festa down, Josh Winder up.
  21. LA Vikes Fan
    Wow, that's ugly. I read that Festa was packing his bags Thursday to go down. Is this the return of Josh Winder (who has lousy AAA stats)? Are we calling up a position player like Wallner and going with a 7 man bullpen? Or, could it be that there's a trade in the works that will open up a 40 man spot? Should be interesting . . .
  22. LA Vikes Fan
    Turns out I was wrong on Paddack. He went on the 15 day IL on 6/25, retroactive to 6/22. He is available to start next Monday. Festa is going down, expect a reliever for the weekend but only Varland and Winder are on the 40 man. Henriquez hasn’t spent his 20 days yet in AAA. My guess is Varland up for the weekend in the Bullpen, maybe through the ASB.
  23. LA Vikes Fan
    I don't think Festa will (or should) get another start. His turn comes up Monday 7/8 in Chicago. With the off day next Thursday, we can pitch Ober today, next Tuesday, and again on Sunday the 14th. Then it's the ASB so it's only this one start next Monday we have to cover. Paddack went on the 15 day IL on 6/25 so he isn't available until the 10th. The only obvious AAA on the 40 man answers are Caleb Boushley and Louie Varland. Boushley pitched last night (poorly, but was good until then), so he is on track for Monday. Varland is not pitching well in AAA so he would be a real crapshoot. I would give Boushley a one game audition against the worst team in the AL to see if there's anything there. Festa has talent but he just isn't ready yet. Send him back down to work on his command. He'll be back and I would guess he's back this year unless we trade for another starter.
  24. LA Vikes Fan
    Miami has said they won’t trade Luzardo since he’s on the 60 day IL and won’t be available until August. He’s an offseason project. The guy to be looking at is Tyler Anderson of the Angels. He’s having a great year and has a reasonable contract at 13m a year that runs through 2025. I think he could be had for 2 prospects in the top 30 who aren’t in the top 10. It’s a steep price, but pitching is extremely expensive this time of year. While we’re at it, see what they want for Carlos Estevez in the bullpen but don’t spend a lot on him. Great relief pitcher when he’s on, MLB reliever of the month in June, but he’s not always on.
  25. LA Vikes Fan
    I see the logic, but don't entirely agree because retals tend to be expensive. Still, who is said mercenary? The only guy that would make any sense to me is Tanner Scott of the Marlins. A great LH closer/late inning guy would really help us. But boy will he be expensive. May cost one of the 7 top 100 guys or, if not, 2 of the best right after those 7, probably including Luke Keaschall. I just don't see any other rentals. I looked at the 92 trade targets in the Athletic and didn't see any rental fit on the hitting side. The only guys are DH types like JD Martinez and Christian Walker. We don't need that and it would take away ABs from Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, and Martin without improving the team. Bad call. Maybe Danny Jansen could help but Toronto would have to take on the Vasquez contract. Doesn't seem likely. On the starting pitcher front, the only decent rental guys out there are Flaherty, Kikuchi, and maybe Severino. Not sure Detroit would trade us Flaherty and I don't want to send an in-division rival a possible long term piece for 2 months of a guy who wasn't very good in 2020, 2022, or 2023. Kikuchi is having a lousy year in 2024 and stunk in 2022, rebounding to an ok but not great 2023. Severino is a huge injury risk and had an awful 2023. Just don't see it. The better move IF we are going to trade real prospects is to get someone controllable and affordable if we can. Three logical choices are Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, or Taylor Ward of the Angels. Anderson has two years left at 13m a year, so he's a little less than 20m for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025. Would be a solid #3 or very good #4 starter. Rengifo is killing it this year (.319/.362/.448 (.810)) after a good 2023 (.783 OPS,) and has a year left of arbitration. Ward has a .762 OPS this year after an .833 in 2022 and .756 in 2023, and is a 20 plus homer guy controllable in arbitration through 2026. The Angels need younger, controllable players. I would like to see the Twins think about trading guys like Schobel, Cory Lewis, Keirsey, Mathews, De Andrade, or maybe even Julien for Anderson and/or Rengifo. The rentals? Not much there other than Scott IMHO.
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