Doc Munson

In a previous post I had posited that the Twins should not make any moves for pitchers unless thay HAD to.  There is no NEED for a Postseason Starter until/if you make the postseason, os hang onto trade chips until you need to cash them.
Signing a FA however is a different story, even though a quality signing would necessitate dumping some salary, and that is different than trading young prospects for quality pitching..
I wouldn't touch Blake Snell. even though he has 2 Cy Youngs, he just doesnt go deep enough into games (although that would actually make him a perfect fit for our philosophy).
 
JOrdan Montgomery would be a great cherry on the top of this offseason..  Currently the Twins project to be at roughly $123M for the season.  There has been "talk" of up to $140M on the budget with a redone TV deal in place. While that is still $20M below last years payroll, it still leaves $17M on the table.
Montgomery is apparetly looking for something bigger than teh Aaron Nola deal which was 7 years $172M. or basically $25M per season..
 
at 31 years old you would be buying the back half of his 30's as a premium, that being said he has been for the most part healthy over the last 3-4 years, and really in another 5 years an average starter will cost darn near $25M. SO I would say that something around a Nola deal would not be a huge overspend. There is however another option, a short term higher AAV with opt outs, similar to the Initial Carlos Correa deal.
 
You sell him on Sonny Gray just signing a 3 year $75M at 3 years his senior after pitching with this team. A full year with 1 team (which he hasn't had in 3 years) pitching in a weak division, with the potential offense the Twins have, and he is a potential 20 game winner if he pitches to his recent season averages of right around 3.00 ball.  Lets throw a 3 year $90M deal on the table with opt outs after each year, Include a 4th year $20M option with a $10M buyout to allow him to hit the $100M mark.  
If we go there, we would need to clear about $13M from the payroll stay within the $140M top end payroll projections.
This could be done easily. with ANY combination of moves.
The usual suspects:
1) Kyle Farmer has $6.25M on the books. That is a decent amount for a utility infielder, even if he is a decent quality. We still have some depth to replace him even with trading Gordon/Polanco.
2) MAx Kepler has $10M on the books.  while losing his defense we have Larnach, Kirilloff (if Santana is primary 1B), plus Castro an possibly Martin who cold claim a spot. That being said while Max could garner the most in trade, I would hate to see him go (coming from the guy who wanted a bag of used BP balls for him last year!!)
3) Christian Vasquez also has $10M on the books. While a good clubhouse guy, Jeffers deserves at least 60% of the ABs from catcher if not more. and $10M for a back up catcher is just irresponsible for a team claiming to have budgetary concerns.
Moving JUST TWO... ANY combination of two from above clears enough to bring in Montgomery.
In other words, ask yourself this...  If Montgomery were a trade candidate and he was making $90M over the next 3 years, and his team offered you him for Kepler an vasquez, would ANYONE say no???  NOPE.
After a succesful year 1 with the Twins, and being a Boras client, he would most likely opt out of the remaining 2 years, at which point the Twins can designate him with a QO and get draft pick compensation.  And heck, he would be great trade bait in the off chance the Twins arent in contention.
 
Either way you cut it, a short term higher AAV deal, or a longer term deal closer to $25M he would/could be an affordable add. and all the Twins would need to give up is trading away redundant or overpaid pieces and ask for little in return.
 

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
The time and the team could come early.
Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
 
Until then, simply carry on.
 
 

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
The time and the team could come early.
Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
 
Until then, simply carry on.
 
 

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
The time and the team could come early.
Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
 
Until then, simply carry on.
 
 

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
The time and the team could come early.
Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
 
Until then, simply carry on.
 
 

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
The time and the team could come early.
Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
 
Until then, simply carry on.
 
 

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
The time and the team could come early.
Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
 
Until then, simply carry on.
 
 

We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
The time and the team could come early.
Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
 
Until then, simply carry on.
 
 

While it is often said that the small moves are the moves that typically end up winning championships, blockbusters are much more fun to theorize on.  A complete hypothetical MEGA deal here.
And in that vane (or is it vein?) lets play another round of "Who Says No??!!"
The Twins have some high  quality prospects on the position side.  Miami has some high quality major league pitchers and pitching prospects.
 
In a trade where Miami moves THREE of its top pitchers for TWO of the Twins top prospects who says no?
Miami sending Jesus Luzardo, the injured Alcantara and older prospect Max Meyer in exchange for Brooks Lee and one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins.
Alcantara is an absolute ACE!!!, btu he will be lost for the entire 2024. Does Miami want to pay him $9M this year to NOT pitch and $17M in a comeback year next year?  chances are probably not.  Luzardo ha a breakout year after a strong but limited 2022. but last year was the first year he has pitched over 100 innings. IS he a sell high candidate with 2 more years of control after this year?  more than likely.  Max Meyer is an uber talented but super high injury risk home town kid. Meyer will be 25 before the start fo the season, while not ancient by any means that is starting to get up there in age for a prospect. He is just now coming back from a full year off due to injury. so there is risk there but also has huge upside. All three of these pitchers have enough warts to make them tradeable, but also enough upside to make them worth the risk.  This could be the perfect Now & Later deal for the Twins. They add an immediate #2 (or better) to the rotation for 2024 in Luzardo, have another high upside arm in Meyer who is just starting his arbitration clock, and also have a future ace in Alcantara in the wings for next year.
 
The Twins sending Brooks Lee a top 20 overall prospect as the starting point in this trade could smart a bit, especially if Correa or Lewis lose time due to injury, but it is well worth the risk for top end pitching when we have the infield depth we have with Lewis, Correa, Julien, Farmer, Gordon, Polanco (for now). plus even Austin Martin as a potential utility guy. Just 1 top 20 overall pick does not get this deal done, we would also need to include one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez, or the most recent #5 overall pick Walker Jenkins. Both with potential massive upsides, but also both a couple years out. Personally I would rather move Rodriguez than Jenkins, but that might be filed under "DUH" since Jenkins is younger and a top 15 overall prospect.
SO regardless of if you go Lee & Jenkins, or Lee and Rodriguez,   for Meyer, Luzardo, Alcantara,   who says no, Twins or Marlins?

While it is often said that the small moves are the moves that typically end up winning championships, blockbusters are much more fun to theorize on.  A complete hypothetical MEGA deal here.
And in that vane (or is it vein?) lets play another round of "Who Says No??!!"
The Twins have some high  quality prospects on the position side.  Miami has some high quality major league pitchers and pitching prospects.
 
In a trade where Miami moves THREE of its top pitchers for TWO of the Twins top prospects who says no?
Miami sending Jesus Luzardo, the injured Alcantara and older prospect Max Meyer in exchange for Brooks Lee and one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins.
Alcantara is an absolute ACE!!!, btu he will be lost for the entire 2024. Does Miami want to pay him $9M this year to NOT pitch and $17M in a comeback year next year?  chances are probably not.  Luzardo ha a breakout year after a strong but limited 2022. but last year was the first year he has pitched over 100 innings. IS he a sell high candidate with 2 more years of control after this year?  more than likely.  Max Meyer is an uber talented but super high injury risk home town kid. Meyer will be 25 before the start fo the season, while not ancient by any means that is starting to get up there in age for a prospect. He is just now coming back from a full year off due to injury. so there is risk there but also has huge upside. All three of these pitchers have enough warts to make them tradeable, but also enough upside to make them worth the risk.  This could be the perfect Now & Later deal for the Twins. They add an immediate #2 (or better) to the rotation for 2024 in Luzardo, have another high upside arm in Meyer who is just starting his arbitration clock, and also have a future ace in Alcantara in the wings for next year.
 
The Twins sending Brooks Lee a top 20 overall prospect as the starting point in this trade could smart a bit, especially if Correa or Lewis lose time due to injury, but it is well worth the risk for top end pitching when we have the infield depth we have with Lewis, Correa, Julien, Farmer, Gordon, Polanco (for now). plus even Austin Martin as a potential utility guy. Just 1 top 20 overall pick does not get this deal done, we would also need to include one of either Emmanuel Rodriguez, or the most recent #5 overall pick Walker Jenkins. Both with potential massive upsides, but also both a couple years out. Personally I would rather move Rodriguez than Jenkins, but that might be filed under "DUH" since Jenkins is younger and a top 15 overall prospect.
SO regardless of if you go Lee & Jenkins, or Lee and Rodriguez,   for Meyer, Luzardo, Alcantara,   who says no, Twins or Marlins?

From the "zig when other people zag " department.  Here are a few trades/moves I would love to see.. With most of my posts of course would never happen, and in fact would probably be HORRIBLE moves in general.  haha!!!
1) Yes I am still chasing Miami Stanton vs Yankee Stanton, but I would love to see Giancarlo on this roster. He fits perfectly with our "strike out all you want as long as you hit 35 HR" philosophy.  he strikes out 1/3 of the time and has a batting average of .200 over the last 2 years.  Is it too much of a stretch to say "just 3 years ago..."?  Well, Just three years ago in in the 2012 season, he hit .273 slugged at an .870 OPS clip equating to a 3+ WAR. Yes he has a full no trade, Yes he makes WAY more than his current output warrants, but he is getting "in the best shape of his career" this offseason, that is exciting!!!   hehe.   the ZIGZAO quotient is off the charts here, as we are looking to slash payroll, not add to it. and we have some decent young players who would otherwise fill the OF/DH role. The Yankees don't care about payroll, or luxury tax concerns, but I am sure they wouldn't mid too much moving his contract all the same.  Lets take a short term hit for a long term gain!!  The Yankees just moved a ton of their top pitching prospects for Soto, but there is still some quality to be had.  We say we will send them Trevor Larnach or Max Kepler in exchange for Stanton, and in exchange for us taking on 100% of his contract for 2023 & 2024, giving Yankees some space to dip below the tax and reset penalty (and have them on the hook for 2025 & 2026). This Allows the Twins some long term payroll flexibility.. and increases his "re-trade value" as now he will only cost the newly acquiring team at most $64M over 4 years or an AAV of $16M. in exchange for this we get back Luis Gil (former Twin prospect with big arm coming back from injury) and young prospect Brando Mayea who has INSANE speed!! 
Twins won't take on $, Stanton wont waive no trade, but would be fun to get Stanton's RH bat in the lineup as LF/DH.
2) Luis Arraez 2.0:   How about giving the ol' Miami Marlins a call.  there was a great trade for both clubs last year. Twins got an Ace while Miami got a batting champ. Lets start with our desire for pitching. There were rumors Miami may listen on Alcantara due to impending big money coming his way. Now he is out for 2024 for TJ surgery. while trying to make a move for Alcantara could be good long term wouldn't do anything for 2024, Id still trade for him, and the Twins have a history of paying pitchers to rehab TJ. There have been rumbling so Edward Cabrera being available, and being another near break out pitching star. There is Jesus Luzardo, who was once a top pitching prospect in Dodgers system, and depending on who you talk to was either coveted, or hated by Twins FO during potential trade with Dodgers, either way he is a mid 3 ERA strike out pitcher just coming into his own at 26. finally a youngster like Minnesota's own Max Meyer could be an intriguing get. super high potential but injury history. ANY of the above would be great gets for the Twins, and each of them in their own rights has the potential to turn into an ace just like Lopez did.  SO who is the Arraez we give up in exchange?  well one of Miami's biggest needs is a SS. and well, just like moving Arraez hurt, getting a top shelf pitcher again will sting a bit. Shortstop we seem pretty stacked. Middle infield overall. No I do not believe Polanco comes into play here, But if Correa is here for the long haul, and we still have Lewis at 3B, and Juline at 2B, Where exactly will Brooks Lee get his ABs? We already traded our #1 pick from 2021 (Chase Petty) why not go ahead and move our #1 pick from 2022? Brooks Lee could be a star, and we are 1 injury away from him being called up, BUT it takes quality to get quality..
3) Speaking of that Chase Petty and revisiting past trade partners, How about revisiting the "Twincinatti" connection. after sending off Petty to Cinci for Gray, and then Steer and Encarnacion Strand for Mahle (HORRIBLE trade) why not reach back out see what we can bring back from Cinci? Their biggest need is pitching, and we aren't in great shape to send any out, but they do have potential areas to upgrade in the 1B/DH/LF where their depth chart currently has Steer as starter at 1B & LF, and E-Strand as DH and backup 1B,  Could we entice Cinci with Kepler and Kirilloff, and even throwing in low A prospect to get Chase Petty back? Petty doesn't seem to have the same high projection as when drafted, but should still be a solid #2 in the future. This wouldn't improve us right away this year, but would position us nicely in the future getting Petty back. and having Wallner replace Kepler and potential of Miranda back at 1B to replace Kirilloff, we would not be losing a whole lot.  PLUS, in order to replace Kirilloff we could also...
4) Go get the OTHER player I have been pining for for years.  Dom Smith could be had relatively cheaply via trade.  Gold Glove type defense. He may not strike out as much as we would liek our hitters to, as he only strikes out at a 17% clip, but he can still be a great presence on this team. He has the natural leadership of a Boomstick. and good for the Twins he is cheap.
No these will not happen, and yes they may range from "dang you are dumb!!  to "that is just pointless"  or somewhere in between coming in as "redumbdant".   BUT dang that would be Frankenstein Funhouse to see all four happen!!
REAL trade scenarios come out next week!!

From the "zig when other people zag " department.  Here are a few trades/moves I would love to see.. With most of my posts of course would never happen, and in fact would probably be HORRIBLE moves in general.  haha!!!
1) Yes I am still chasing Miami Stanton vs Yankee Stanton, but I would love to see Giancarlo on this roster. He fits perfectly with our "strike out all you want as long as you hit 35 HR" philosophy.  he strikes out 1/3 of the time and has a batting average of .200 over the last 2 years.  Is it too much of a stretch to say "just 3 years ago..."?  Well, Just three years ago in in the 2012 season, he hit .273 slugged at an .870 OPS clip equating to a 3+ WAR. Yes he has a full no trade, Yes he makes WAY more than his current output warrants, but he is getting "in the best shape of his career" this offseason, that is exciting!!!   hehe.   the ZIGZAO quotient is off the charts here, as we are looking to slash payroll, not add to it. and we have some decent young players who would otherwise fill the OF/DH role. The Yankees don't care about payroll, or luxury tax concerns, but I am sure they wouldn't mid too much moving his contract all the same.  Lets take a short term hit for a long term gain!!  The Yankees just moved a ton of their top pitching prospects for Soto, but there is still some quality to be had.  We say we will send them Trevor Larnach or Max Kepler in exchange for Stanton, and in exchange for us taking on 100% of his contract for 2023 & 2024, giving Yankees some space to dip below the tax and reset penalty (and have them on the hook for 2025 & 2026). This Allows the Twins some long term payroll flexibility.. and increases his "re-trade value" as now he will only cost the newly acquiring team at most $64M over 4 years or an AAV of $16M. in exchange for this we get back Luis Gil (former Twin prospect with big arm coming back from injury) and young prospect Brando Mayea who has INSANE speed!! 
Twins won't take on $, Stanton wont waive no trade, but would be fun to get Stanton's RH bat in the lineup as LF/DH.
2) Luis Arraez 2.0:   How about giving the ol' Miami Marlins a call.  there was a great trade for both clubs last year. Twins got an Ace while Miami got a batting champ. Lets start with our desire for pitching. There were rumors Miami may listen on Alcantara due to impending big money coming his way. Now he is out for 2024 for TJ surgery. while trying to make a move for Alcantara could be good long term wouldn't do anything for 2024, Id still trade for him, and the Twins have a history of paying pitchers to rehab TJ. There have been rumbling so Edward Cabrera being available, and being another near break out pitching star. There is Jesus Luzardo, who was once a top pitching prospect in Dodgers system, and depending on who you talk to was either coveted, or hated by Twins FO during potential trade with Dodgers, either way he is a mid 3 ERA strike out pitcher just coming into his own at 26. finally a youngster like Minnesota's own Max Meyer could be an intriguing get. super high potential but injury history. ANY of the above would be great gets for the Twins, and each of them in their own rights has the potential to turn into an ace just like Lopez did.  SO who is the Arraez we give up in exchange?  well one of Miami's biggest needs is a SS. and well, just like moving Arraez hurt, getting a top shelf pitcher again will sting a bit. Shortstop we seem pretty stacked. Middle infield overall. No I do not believe Polanco comes into play here, But if Correa is here for the long haul, and we still have Lewis at 3B, and Juline at 2B, Where exactly will Brooks Lee get his ABs? We already traded our #1 pick from 2021 (Chase Petty) why not go ahead and move our #1 pick from 2022? Brooks Lee could be a star, and we are 1 injury away from him being called up, BUT it takes quality to get quality..
3) Speaking of that Chase Petty and revisiting past trade partners, How about revisiting the "Twincinatti" connection. after sending off Petty to Cinci for Gray, and then Steer and Encarnacion Strand for Mahle (HORRIBLE trade) why not reach back out see what we can bring back from Cinci? Their biggest need is pitching, and we aren't in great shape to send any out, but they do have potential areas to upgrade in the 1B/DH/LF where their depth chart currently has Steer as starter at 1B & LF, and E-Strand as DH and backup 1B,  Could we entice Cinci with Kepler and Kirilloff, and even throwing in low A prospect to get Chase Petty back? Petty doesn't seem to have the same high projection as when drafted, but should still be a solid #2 in the future. This wouldn't improve us right away this year, but would position us nicely in the future getting Petty back. and having Wallner replace Kepler and potential of Miranda back at 1B to replace Kirilloff, we would not be losing a whole lot.  PLUS, in order to replace Kirilloff we could also...
4) Go get the OTHER player I have been pining for for years.  Dom Smith could be had relatively cheaply via trade.  Gold Glove type defense. He may not strike out as much as we would liek our hitters to, as he only strikes out at a 17% clip, but he can still be a great presence on this team. He has the natural leadership of a Boomstick. and good for the Twins he is cheap.
No these will not happen, and yes they may range from "dang you are dumb!!  to "that is just pointless"  or somewhere in between coming in as "redumbdant".   BUT dang that would be Frankenstein Funhouse to see all four happen!!
REAL trade scenarios come out next week!!

Just reviewing some of the new rules being implemented in 2024. and a couple of them seem to be pointless.  Yes, I do actually get the Irony of me spending time talking about a rule change i know will have zero impact. 
I first have to also admit, that I am sure even rules chances focused on the speed of the game will not "ruin the game" as I had previously whined about prior to the pitch clock. OF course I think there are more "natural" ways to speed up the game, but really the pitch clock was a huge success and had minimal, if any impact on the enjoyment of the game in a negative way.
But lets review new changes. and give them a 1-10 score on impacting the desired outcome
 
1) pitch clock going from 20 seconds to 18 seconds with a runner on base.  OK i get it there was no impact in adding the clock to begin with, so lets whittle it down a touch. Basically trying to tweak it until you hit the inflection point.  BUT dropping from 20 to 18 seconds when the average when MLB data shows that on average pitchers delivered the ball with 7.3 seconds left when runners were on base just doesn't seem like there will be much of an impact on the pace of games.  If they were delivering with less than 2 seconds left, then yes that would impact the pace.  IMPACT ON PACE OF PLAY =  0  ok maybe a 1
2) Dead Ball clock usage. last year in dead ball situation, the pitch clock did not start until the pitcher took the mound, this year it will start when the pitcher is given a new ball and play is ready to be resumed. I THINK this could have a impact on pace of the game. But I am not sure really how/when "play is ready to be resumed" is determined. SO I cannot answer that. BUT  I could imagine that many pitchers last year took that dead ball time as a bit of a breather and took a few seconds to wait to get on the mound before the pitch clock was reset. So even a 2-3 second savings for each dead ball situation could have a BIG impact on the pace of a game.  IMPACT ON PACE OF PLAY = 9
3) clock resetting to 2 minutes instead of 2:15 on pitching changes, at least on changes where the relief pitcher is slow to enter teh game.  with 6-8 pitching changes per game, at 15 seconds per change that is not a HUGE savings, and it is during dead time so will not speed p the actual game play.  IMPACT ON PACE OF PLAY = 2
4) If a pitcher warms up before an inning they must now face at least 1 batter.  OK I can understand the point behind it, but really why is there a need to create this rule? MLB themselves said this happened 24 times last year. with about 2600 total games played and it happened 24 times, that less than 1% of the games, you need to make a rule about it? I am not doing a deep dive, but how many of these were then a result of a team having a quick scoring outburst the inning before, and thus nti allowing the relief pitcher time to get up and warmed up in the bullpen prior to the start of the next inning?   Personally I am in the camp of you say "the manager needs to manage around that situation", there will be numerous "player safety" people who will say it help protect the pitchers, and you cant put pitchers in who are not sufficiently warmed up. Either way with less than 1% of games experiencing this... IMAPCT ON PACE OF PLAY = 0
5) Mound visits dropping from 5 to 4.  again like some of the others, will have minimal if any impact as teams averaged  2.3 visits per game, so again what is the point?  IMAPCT ON PACE OF PLAY = 0
6) Widening basepath to 1B.  So now instead of making the runner run in foul territory to help prevent collisions at 1B, runners are now allowed to run inside the baseline???? This one subtly intrigues me. while the "safety of the players" people will hate this, as all it will do is increase the chances of the 1B/runner collisions,  I think this could also impact how the game is played.  Did they change this to increase bunting???  if runners can now "legally" run inside the expanded baseline, is this to incentive bunting and running inside to block the path of a throw? Could this be a rule that while allowing the runner to run inside actually also allow umpires MORE clarity on calling people OUT for interference in blatant situations? I.E. if they expand the inside of the baseline an allow runners to run there but at the same more clearly defining it so where if a player even TOUCHES the grass while running to 1st then they are out, well then THAT would make the calls significantly easier for the umps. While this is not a pace of play rule, I think this COULD have significant impact on how the game is played, depending on how it is implemented, and THIS rule I am curious to see.  If I am the coach of a team with speedsters I am bunting much more often and instructing them to run inside the baseline as the flight of the ball from the release of a RH throwing catcher throwing down the line is naturally to tail inside. This could set up throws down the 1B line turning outs or close bunt singles into doubles or triples.
 
Will be interesting to see the intended and unintended consequences of these rules in 2024;
Or a great big nothinburger.
 
 
 
 

so Ohtani looks to be signing with Toronto very shortly. in part because he values his privacy.  WHat better way to live a private lifestyle than with the Twins?!?!?  hehe
Twins should do a last minute 10yr $625M offer.
 
1) We offer the privacy he may desire.
2) With the MSP airport we would have a major INTL airport with all of the direct flights back home he could want.
But wait... He also wants to win!!
1) well if he is onboard this team, we would be AL Central contenders/Champs almost annually.
2) when looking at contending you not only have to look at current roster, but also future roster. and while we may not have a Vlad Guerrero Jr, or a Bo Bichette,  we do have Carlos Correa (yeah yeah yeah I know a number of you will trash him, but he has proven a top SS, and a playoff stud). we have a strong current and future rotation he could slide into next year  and we have a slew of young players who are just opening their own winning window in Royce Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers.... We have Byron Buxton, who is a true wildcard, COULD be a nothing burger, but also could be an MVP candidate... at this point even I have to admit better chances of the nothing burger.  BUT we have a number of quality young players 1-2 years away as well to hopefully extend window  ( OF COURSE this will be different than the Buxton/Sano window!!!  LOL)
3) Basically we have a good to strong rotation, that will only improve when Shohei joins.  we have a good nucleus of position players from which to build and a strong group of prospects who will be arriving on an almost annual basis over the next few years.
 
 
But we cant afford him!!! the TV contract!!
 I will not go not the whole details like I had previously about how we are actually one of the few teams who actually CAN afford him, btu will just go cliff notes version.
1) the massive spike of season tickets, and single game tickets will offset at least half of his contract.
2) Having Shohei on this team would actually allow us to command significantly higher new TV deal than without him, This difference could easily result in offsetting 25-50% of his annual salary.
3) this does not even take into consideration the spike in revenue from concessions, from away game attendance which will spike, and opening up a whole country worht of advertising rights,  These alone could completely offest the cost of Ohtani.
4) We have already shaved off $35M+ with no longer having Sonny Gray, Maeda, Gallo, Mahle.  Should we need, even if having to add prospects to move Vazquez or get nothing in return, that is another $10M.  and if we do end up moving Kepler and/or Polanco, then that is another potential  $20M shed  These moves alone cover the cost of Ohtani as well. Taylor's $4.6M being gone brings it to nearly $70M shed.
5) we have cheap replacements for almost EVERY positional loss.  Kepler = Wallner, Polanco = Julien,  Taylor = Buxton (if he can actually play ANY CF) plus Austin Martin, also have Castro & Gordon.  Sonny Gray = Louis Varland... OK OK maybe we say Maeda - Louis Varland and while still possible downgrade, he would be serviceable #5.  Sonny Gray would actually be more like Ohtani being that replacement (albeit NEXT year)
Positional Fit with Buxton as possible DH?
1) if... IF Buxton can play CF that solves that issue, .. and really anyoen who says  "well yeah but where would we put him!?"  well, Ill just say no comment.
2) if Buxton CANT go in the OF, then since Ohtani would not be pitching this year, he could easily handle 1B which would be a massive upgrade over Kirilloff/Miranda. or even OF.. he is such an "athlete" it shouldn't be a big deal taking on 1B or a corner OF spot... heck could HE be the CF protection for Buxton???
 
SO again, even if he was NOT on the verge of signing with Toronto,  I of course do not believe this would ACTUALLY happen.  I just want everyone to know it is not because  "we cant afford him"  or any "woe is me" Twins Front Office mumbo jumbo.  it is becasue it is a CHOICE!  we have CHOSEN not to go after him.
Yes he COULD fit financially very easily!!
Yes he DOES fit our positional/roster needs
Yes he/we WOULD win consistently with him on this roster
Yes it WOULD have been fun as heck to have him on this team and see/feel all the buzz and excitement surrounding this club.
and finally...
Yes I know there is no point to this post because it was and will never happen, but still fun to think "what if".   hehe
 
 

First off, NO... I do not expect the Twins to be anywhere NEAR in the running for Ohtani.  He most like lt has zero interest in a midwest location, and we will not spend that much.  The question however is SHOULD we be in the running? and the answer is an unequivocal YES.
Everyone is talking about how we will be lowering payroll, primarily because of the lack of TV contract. I would suggest that actually signing Ohtani would give the Twins leverage to sign a bigger contract.  The guy is a mega draw!  Lets play with some hypothetical numbers.
For easy math let's throw out a $50M AAV for Ohtani.  the numbers that have floated around are that the Twins had about $50M coming in from local TV rights, and that now people are guestimating that would drop to somewhere around $25M.  I would venture to guess that EVERY sports broadcasting company would be battling it out to be the ones to be able to carry Ohtani's games, even locally. With the guaranteed increased viewership with Ohtani, you would think broadcast companies would come back in even at the same contract details as the previous one.
Now I do not claim to know details of the previous contracts, and how lucrative they have been for the TV companies, or if they were a big reason they sought bankruptcy protection, btu I would assume that a team with Ohtani alone could draw enough. viewership... ad revenue, that at the same contract that brought the Twins $50M would be doable.
 
Working on that assumption would be that without Ohtani we receive $25M, with Ohtani we receive $50M.  That $25M offsets the first $25M of Ohtani's salary.  That means the Twins would need to clear another $25M from the payroll in order to remain at last years levels. And again, the only, or at least main reason the Twins are cutting payroll is the lack of TV contract money.
Looking at the Twins roster it does not take a genius how to clear that money. Kepler and Polanco together free up around $20M. There is another $22M being freed up with Sonny Gray, Kyle Farmer and Kenta Maeda not being back with us. These moves alone more than free up the remaining balance to cover Ohtani.
Factor in other potential cost saving measures like moving Vasquez and Pagan =$13.5M, Gallo's $11M and Mahle's $7.5M coming off the books..
The point of all of this rambling is to say that the current lack of TV contract is EXACTLY WHY the Twins should be a front runner for Ohtani.  You sign him, you overpay for himif needed. and then you leverage him to sign a much bigger TV deal than you would otherwise sign without him.
and that is not even factoring in ticket sales, concessions, etc. Ohtani's deal at ANY price will more than pay for itself, but more so if he signs with a team without a current TV deal. Teams with TV deals in place will not be able to leverage his star status for more TV money.
Again, key word in the title here is SHOULD, I know he and they WONT.  :(

First off, NO... I do not expect the Twins to be anywhere NEAR in the running for Ohtani.  He most like lt has zero interest in a midwest location, and we will not spend that much.  The question however is SHOULD we be in the running? and the answer is an unequivocal YES.
Everyone is talking about how we will be lowering payroll, primarily because of the lack of TV contract. I would suggest that actually signing Ohtani would give the Twins leverage to sign a bigger contract.  The guy is a mega draw!  Lets play with some hypothetical numbers.
For easy math let's throw out a $50M AAV for Ohtani.  the numbers that have floated around are that the Twins had about $50M coming in from local TV rights, and that now people are guestimating that would drop to somewhere around $25M.  I would venture to guess that EVERY sports broadcasting company would be battling it out to be the ones to be able to carry Ohtani's games, even locally. With the guaranteed increased viewership with Ohtani, you would think broadcast companies would come back in even at the same contract details as the previous one.
Now I do not claim to know details of the previous contracts, and how lucrative they have been for the TV companies, or if they were a big reason they sought bankruptcy protection, btu I would assume that a team with Ohtani alone could draw enough. viewership... ad revenue, that at the same contract that brought the Twins $50M would be doable.
 
Working on that assumption would be that without Ohtani we receive $25M, with Ohtani we receive $50M.  That $25M offsets the first $25M of Ohtani's salary.  That means the Twins would need to clear another $25M from the payroll in order to remain at last years levels. And again, the only, or at least main reason the Twins are cutting payroll is the lack of TV contract money.
Looking at the Twins roster it does not take a genius how to clear that money. Kepler and Polanco together free up around $20M. There is another $22M being freed up with Sonny Gray, Kyle Farmer and Kenta Maeda not being back with us. These moves alone more than free up the remaining balance to cover Ohtani.
Factor in other potential cost saving measures like moving Vasquez and Pagan =$13.5M, Gallo's $11M and Mahle's $7.5M coming off the books..
The point of all of this rambling is to say that the current lack of TV contract is EXACTLY WHY the Twins should be a front runner for Ohtani.  You sign him, you overpay for himif needed. and then you leverage him to sign a much bigger TV deal than you would otherwise sign without him.
and that is not even factoring in ticket sales, concessions, etc. Ohtani's deal at ANY price will more than pay for itself, but more so if he signs with a team without a current TV deal. Teams with TV deals in place will not be able to leverage his star status for more TV money.
Again, key word in the title here is SHOULD, I know he and they WONT.  :(

First off, NO... I do not expect the Twins to be anywhere NEAR in the running for Ohtani.  He most like lt has zero interest in a midwest location, and we will not spend that much.  The question however is SHOULD we be in the running? and the answer is an unequivocal YES.
Everyone is talking about how we will be lowering payroll, primarily because of the lack of TV contract. I would suggest that actually signing Ohtani would give the Twins leverage to sign a bigger contract.  The guy is a mega draw!  Lets play with some hypothetical numbers.
For easy math let's throw out a $50M AAV for Ohtani.  the numbers that have floated around are that the Twins had about $50M coming in from local TV rights, and that now people are guestimating that would drop to somewhere around $25M.  I would venture to guess that EVERY sports broadcasting company would be battling it out to be the ones to be able to carry Ohtani's games, even locally. With the guaranteed increased viewership with Ohtani, you would think broadcast companies would come back in even at the same contract details as the previous one.
Now I do not claim to know details of the previous contracts, and how lucrative they have been for the TV companies, or if they were a big reason they sought bankruptcy protection, btu I would assume that a team with Ohtani alone could draw enough. viewership... ad revenue, that at the same contract that brought the Twins $50M would be doable.
 
Working on that assumption would be that without Ohtani we receive $25M, with Ohtani we receive $50M.  That $25M offsets the first $25M of Ohtani's salary.  That means the Twins would need to clear another $25M from the payroll in order to remain at last years levels. And again, the only, or at least main reason the Twins are cutting payroll is the lack of TV contract money.
Looking at the Twins roster it does not take a genius how to clear that money. Kepler and Polanco together free up around $20M. There is another $22M being freed up with Sonny Gray, Kyle Farmer and Kenta Maeda not being back with us. These moves alone more than free up the remaining balance to cover Ohtani.
Factor in other potential cost saving measures like moving Vasquez and Pagan =$13.5M, Gallo's $11M and Mahle's $7.5M coming off the books..
The point of all of this rambling is to say that the current lack of TV contract is EXACTLY WHY the Twins should be a front runner for Ohtani.  You sign him, you overpay for himif needed. and then you leverage him to sign a much bigger TV deal than you would otherwise sign without him.
and that is not even factoring in ticket sales, concessions, etc. Ohtani's deal at ANY price will more than pay for itself, but more so if he signs with a team without a current TV deal. Teams with TV deals in place will not be able to leverage his star status for more TV money.
Again, key word in the title here is SHOULD, I know he and they WONT.  :(

I hope the injury to Royce Lewis is not as bad as I fear.  That was NOT "Hamstring tightness".
 
ANYOEN/EVERYONE watching this game saw it, and I am guessing we all let out a simultaneous  "OH F---"!!!!!!   How could they not see it?
Was anyone else as enraged as I was when listening to Tingler explain the injury?  I do not have it recorded so I will be paraphrasing, but when asked about if the injury running down to first on the previous at bat had anything to do with it, he says he did not see any issues with Royce running down to first, and that he just slowed up.  NO Jayce he did not "just slow up" he CLEARLY did something.  Jayce then said  that he didn't see anything and that Royce did not come to him to share any potential injury..  How can a (fill in manager) and a head trainer watch a guy as vital to the steam as Royce Lewis is pull up OBVIOUSLY lame running to first. and you not GO TO HIM?!?!?!?!!!!!!
 
ROyce needed to be pulled immediately!!! You just saw a guy run the bases and pull up lame, a player who is the key to your team, a player that has a history of SIGNIFICANT knee injuries, he CLEARLY pulls up lame and limping and you do nothing???  You were in a 7-0 ballgame leading a division by 7 games with 10 games to go.  Lewis should have been pulled IMMEDIATELY!!!
 
Now the end result may not be much different, maybe the damage was already done there, but he should never have been left in the game after that.
Royce's reaction going into the dugout was not a reaction of someone who has a tight hamstring, that was a reaction of a young player who has come back from 2 SIGNIFICANT injuries, missing SIGNIFICANT time, knowing he just had another SIGNIFICANT injury and is about to lose even more SIGNIFICANT time to rehab yet another injury. That was the reaction of a player who knows he is not playing another competitive game again this year.
 
I PRAY I am wrong, but the results here, but either way, if it is a 1 day injury or a 1 year injury, what is most frustrating is the incompetent handling of this by both the fill in manager and the head trainer, and both should be immediately terminated for incompetence.

I hope the injury to Royce Lewis is not as bad as I fear.  That was NOT "Hamstring tightness".
 
ANYOEN/EVERYONE watching this game saw it, and I am guessing we all let out a simultaneous  "OH F---"!!!!!!   How could they not see it?
Was anyone else as enraged as I was when listening to Tingler explain the injury?  I do not have it recorded so I will be paraphrasing, but when asked about if the injury running down to first on the previous at bat had anything to do with it, he says he did not see any issues with Royce running down to first, and that he just slowed up.  NO Jayce he did not "just slow up" he CLEARLY did something.  Jayce then said  that he didn't see anything and that Royce did not come to him to share any potential injury..  How can a (fill in manager) and a head trainer watch a guy as vital to the steam as Royce Lewis is pull up OBVIOUSLY lame running to first. and you not GO TO HIM?!?!?!?!!!!!!
 
ROyce needed to be pulled immediately!!! You just saw a guy run the bases and pull up lame, a player who is the key to your team, a player that has a history of SIGNIFICANT knee injuries, he CLEARLY pulls up lame and limping and you do nothing???  You were in a 7-0 ballgame leading a division by 7 games with 10 games to go.  Lewis should have been pulled IMMEDIATELY!!!
 
Now the end result may not be much different, maybe the damage was already done there, but he should never have been left in the game after that.
Royce's reaction going into the dugout was not a reaction of someone who has a tight hamstring, that was a reaction of a young player who has come back from 2 SIGNIFICANT injuries, missing SIGNIFICANT time, knowing he just had another SIGNIFICANT injury and is about to lose even more SIGNIFICANT time to rehab yet another injury. That was the reaction of a player who knows he is not playing another competitive game again this year.
 
I PRAY I am wrong, but the results here, but either way, if it is a 1 day injury or a 1 year injury, what is most frustrating is the incompetent handling of this by both the fill in manager and the head trainer, and both should be immediately terminated for incompetence.

I hope the injury to Royce Lewis is not as bad as I fear.  That was NOT "Hamstring tightness".
 
ANYOEN/EVERYONE watching this game saw it, and I am guessing we all let out a simultaneous  "OH F---"!!!!!!   How could they not see it?
Was anyone else as enraged as I was when listening to Tingler explain the injury?  I do not have it recorded so I will be paraphrasing, but when asked about if the injury running down to first on the previous at bat had anything to do with it, he says he did not see any issues with Royce running down to first, and that he just slowed up.  NO Jayce he did not "just slow up" he CLEARLY did something.  Jayce then said  that he didn't see anything and that Royce did not come to him to share any potential injury..  How can a (fill in manager) and a head trainer watch a guy as vital to the steam as Royce Lewis is pull up OBVIOUSLY lame running to first. and you not GO TO HIM?!?!?!?!!!!!!
 
ROyce needed to be pulled immediately!!! You just saw a guy run the bases and pull up lame, a player who is the key to your team, a player that has a history of SIGNIFICANT knee injuries, he CLEARLY pulls up lame and limping and you do nothing???  You were in a 7-0 ballgame leading a division by 7 games with 10 games to go.  Lewis should have been pulled IMMEDIATELY!!!
 
Now the end result may not be much different, maybe the damage was already done there, but he should never have been left in the game after that.
Royce's reaction going into the dugout was not a reaction of someone who has a tight hamstring, that was a reaction of a young player who has come back from 2 SIGNIFICANT injuries, missing SIGNIFICANT time, knowing he just had another SIGNIFICANT injury and is about to lose even more SIGNIFICANT time to rehab yet another injury. That was the reaction of a player who knows he is not playing another competitive game again this year.
 
I PRAY I am wrong, but the results here, but either way, if it is a 1 day injury or a 1 year injury, what is most frustrating is the incompetent handling of this by both the fill in manager and the head trainer, and both should be immediately terminated for incompetence.

I hope the injury to Royce Lewis is not as bad as I fear.  That was NOT "Hamstring tightness".
 
ANYOEN/EVERYONE watching this game saw it, and I am guessing we all let out a simultaneous  "OH F---"!!!!!!   How could they not see it?
Was anyone else as enraged as I was when listening to Tingler explain the injury?  I do not have it recorded so I will be paraphrasing, but when asked about if the injury running down to first on the previous at bat had anything to do with it, he says he did not see any issues with Royce running down to first, and that he just slowed up.  NO Jayce he did not "just slow up" he CLEARLY did something.  Jayce then said  that he didn't see anything and that Royce did not come to him to share any potential injury..  How can a (fill in manager) and a head trainer watch a guy as vital to the steam as Royce Lewis is pull up OBVIOUSLY lame running to first. and you not GO TO HIM?!?!?!?!!!!!!
 
ROyce needed to be pulled immediately!!! You just saw a guy run the bases and pull up lame, a player who is the key to your team, a player that has a history of SIGNIFICANT knee injuries, he CLEARLY pulls up lame and limping and you do nothing???  You were in a 7-0 ballgame leading a division by 7 games with 10 games to go.  Lewis should have been pulled IMMEDIATELY!!!
 
Now the end result may not be much different, maybe the damage was already done there, but he should never have been left in the game after that.
Royce's reaction going into the dugout was not a reaction of someone who has a tight hamstring, that was a reaction of a young player who has come back from 2 SIGNIFICANT injuries, missing SIGNIFICANT time, knowing he just had another SIGNIFICANT injury and is about to lose even more SIGNIFICANT time to rehab yet another injury. That was the reaction of a player who knows he is not playing another competitive game again this year.
 
I PRAY I am wrong, but the results here, but either way, if it is a 1 day injury or a 1 year injury, what is most frustrating is the incompetent handling of this by both the fill in manager and the head trainer, and both should be immediately terminated for incompetence.

OK, so the obvious... or at least INITIAL knee jerk reaction is NO!!  BUT... lets take a deeper look at the affordability and the functionality of Ohtani on the Twins.
First off the affordability.  Ohtani is incredibly affordable at ANY price. Ohtani is the unique player that almost pays for himself.  The increased revenue he brings to ANY team will offset a good chunk, if not all, of his salary.   Secondly the Twins can have some decent salaries coming of the books.
Using 2022 salaries 
Sonny Gray is a FA at basically $13M
Joey Gallo's $11M will be gone
Tyler Mahle and his $7.5M should be gone,
Maeda is a Fa at $3M
Other possibilities... Max Kepler (has he played his way into the $10M team option in the 2nd half???  maybe, but lets assume we move on so his $8.5 equivalent is gone) Polanco's 2024 option will not vest so that is another $7.5M, With the number of young IF in the system does this make Farmer and his $5.5M could be gone. Michael Taylor has been worth every penny but is a FA clearing $4.5M, and will Pagan be worth bringing back?? He has been hit and miss, but for the purposes of this discussion lets assume he is gone and his $3.5M is cleared.
That is the potential of $64M coming off the books.  There will obviously be some costs associated with replacing these guys, but we have young guys ready to take their places... Julien can take the place of Polanco, Wallner can replace Kepler, lets pray Buxton can play CF next year then he replaces Taylor, if not then we can go after a young defensive prospect. Gallo can be replaced by any number os players on the cheap. I am about to throw up in my mouth here, but lets say that Chris Paddack is able to replace Maeda,  and Pagan is easily replaceable.
This means almost all holes are filled from  within. at little to no additional costs. (would still need a top pitcher to replace Gray). Which should leave a good $50M+ available to come in at same payroll as 2022.
Ohtani was set to CRUSH ALL records contract wise. will the potential TJ (2nd one by the way) lower this number?  I think it will a bit, he is still an MVP offensively alone, but part of his potential historic contract would be that he is also a potential Cy Young every year..  If you say a perennial offensive MVP would command Aaron Judge money, then that is $35-40M  per year.  a perennial Cy Young candidate can command $35-40M per year (Cole, Verlander, Scherzer).  Can you simply combine them into one player and add them together for a $70-80M per year number?  some seem to think you can, especially since he also provides additional roster flexibility. lets assume a 15-20% discount off of the top end $80 combined AAV. That is still $60-68M AAV. Assuming a 10 year deal that is about a 10 year lets say $650M overall deal.  Believe it or not some say that is very low. Now lets say with a potentially lost year due to TJ and subtract out $65M, but still keep it a 10 year deal, that is a 10 year $585M contract.  and then lets just say we sweeten it by $15M to incentivize him ot play in MN vs a west coast to an even $600M.
The two questions are...  Would he take a 10 year $600M deal?  and if so should the Twins offer it? even knowing year 1 could be completely wiped out?
The Twins CAN afford it, given the young players who look like they may actually stick this time offsetting the big contract for Ohtani, in Wallner, Lewis, Julien.  AND he will actualyl generate significant additional revenues for the team, to help offset the costs.

OK, so the obvious... or at least INITIAL knee jerk reaction is NO!!  BUT... lets take a deeper look at the affordability and the functionality of Ohtani on the Twins.
First off the affordability.  Ohtani is incredibly affordable at ANY price. Ohtani is the unique player that almost pays for himself.  The increased revenue he brings to ANY team will offset a good chunk, if not all, of his salary.   Secondly the Twins can have some decent salaries coming of the books.
Using 2022 salaries 
Sonny Gray is a FA at basically $13M
Joey Gallo's $11M will be gone
Tyler Mahle and his $7.5M should be gone,
Maeda is a Fa at $3M
Other possibilities... Max Kepler (has he played his way into the $10M team option in the 2nd half???  maybe, but lets assume we move on so his $8.5 equivalent is gone) Polanco's 2024 option will not vest so that is another $7.5M, With the number of young IF in the system does this make Farmer and his $5.5M could be gone. Michael Taylor has been worth every penny but is a FA clearing $4.5M, and will Pagan be worth bringing back?? He has been hit and miss, but for the purposes of this discussion lets assume he is gone and his $3.5M is cleared.
That is the potential of $64M coming off the books.  There will obviously be some costs associated with replacing these guys, but we have young guys ready to take their places... Julien can take the place of Polanco, Wallner can replace Kepler, lets pray Buxton can play CF next year then he replaces Taylor, if not then we can go after a young defensive prospect. Gallo can be replaced by any number os players on the cheap. I am about to throw up in my mouth here, but lets say that Chris Paddack is able to replace Maeda,  and Pagan is easily replaceable.
This means almost all holes are filled from  within. at little to no additional costs. (would still need a top pitcher to replace Gray). Which should leave a good $50M+ available to come in at same payroll as 2022.
Ohtani was set to CRUSH ALL records contract wise. will the potential TJ (2nd one by the way) lower this number?  I think it will a bit, he is still an MVP offensively alone, but part of his potential historic contract would be that he is also a potential Cy Young every year..  If you say a perennial offensive MVP would command Aaron Judge money, then that is $35-40M  per year.  a perennial Cy Young candidate can command $35-40M per year (Cole, Verlander, Scherzer).  Can you simply combine them into one player and add them together for a $70-80M per year number?  some seem to think you can, especially since he also provides additional roster flexibility. lets assume a 15-20% discount off of the top end $80 combined AAV. That is still $60-68M AAV. Assuming a 10 year deal that is about a 10 year lets say $650M overall deal.  Believe it or not some say that is very low. Now lets say with a potentially lost year due to TJ and subtract out $65M, but still keep it a 10 year deal, that is a 10 year $585M contract.  and then lets just say we sweeten it by $15M to incentivize him ot play in MN vs a west coast to an even $600M.
The two questions are...  Would he take a 10 year $600M deal?  and if so should the Twins offer it? even knowing year 1 could be completely wiped out?
The Twins CAN afford it, given the young players who look like they may actually stick this time offsetting the big contract for Ohtani, in Wallner, Lewis, Julien.  AND he will actualyl generate significant additional revenues for the team, to help offset the costs.

I have to confess I do not know how to feel about the lack of movement at the deadline.  I am glad we did not give up quality prospects in order to secure average MLB talent that will not significantly impact this years results. At the same time it is very disallusioning (is that a word?) to see we did absolutely NOTHING to address the blatant issues we have with this offense.
This disallusionment (again is that a word) makes me seriously consider how I want the rest of the year to go.  Am I not a "true" fan if a part of me wants us to collapse, IF that means that "Falvine" will be gone after this year? If it means other changes will happen? Such as Baldelli gone, Hitting coach gone, and we can install a new brand of baseball?  Is wanting short term failure for long term success mean I am not a "true fan"? 
 
I do not expect us to win every game, I do not expect us to spend on the best players in the game, I do not expect us to lead MLB in HR and batting average, and OPS, and SB. I do not expect us to lead MLB in ERA, WHIP, CGs etc.  I onyl want us to TRY!!!!
 
If we had a balanced lineup that we just need players to play better, then I coudl possibly understand, but we have built a flawed team, and if the FO cannot see that, and cannot seem to do things to admit a failure, fix it and move on, then it looks like we are not even trying.
We still have an extremely LH dominated lineup, we still hit LH pitching worst in baseball, we still have the players with the highest K rate in the history of baseball. We still have mediocre palyers blocking slightly better mediocre players that do not allow us to truly evaluate talent for next year. we still have middling talent ready to be out next wave.  
We still have Gallo on this team. Who takes away AB's from potentially both Wallner and Larnach. We still have an upcoming IF crunch to address when Lewis comes back in a  short bit.
We still have zero apparent plan going forward into next year to compete.  Gallo gone next year (addition by subtraction) Kepler, unless he stays on fire the rest of the year will be gone, Taylor is a FA, we have no established 3B at the moment for next year. With Kiriloff's injury we still have noone we can count on all year long at 1B next year, we are still handcuffed at DH as who knows if Buxton will be able to play the field next year. Our pitching still has Gray gone as a FA, if we think we will get a draft pick with a QO forget it. nobody will sign Gray to a multi year deal at his age with draft pick compensation tied to him, so we will lose him for nothing. If you cannot see that coming as a FO guy you should not be a FO guy. Maeda will be gone, Keuchle, if we add him will not be here next year.
 
At least the Indina made moves to improve the future while still being able to contend in this division!!
 
So back to my original question, is it OK to hope for a collapse if it means the longterm health (or at least a better chance at long term health) of the team I love?

I have to confess I do not know how to feel about the lack of movement at the deadline.  I am glad we did not give up quality prospects in order to secure average MLB talent that will not significantly impact this years results. At the same time it is very disallusioning (is that a word?) to see we did absolutely NOTHING to address the blatant issues we have with this offense.
This disallusionment (again is that a word) makes me seriously consider how I want the rest of the year to go.  Am I not a "true" fan if a part of me wants us to collapse, IF that means that "Falvine" will be gone after this year? If it means other changes will happen? Such as Baldelli gone, Hitting coach gone, and we can install a new brand of baseball?  Is wanting short term failure for long term success mean I am not a "true fan"? 
 
I do not expect us to win every game, I do not expect us to spend on the best players in the game, I do not expect us to lead MLB in HR and batting average, and OPS, and SB. I do not expect us to lead MLB in ERA, WHIP, CGs etc.  I onyl want us to TRY!!!!
 
If we had a balanced lineup that we just need players to play better, then I coudl possibly understand, but we have built a flawed team, and if the FO cannot see that, and cannot seem to do things to admit a failure, fix it and move on, then it looks like we are not even trying.
We still have an extremely LH dominated lineup, we still hit LH pitching worst in baseball, we still have the players with the highest K rate in the history of baseball. We still have mediocre palyers blocking slightly better mediocre players that do not allow us to truly evaluate talent for next year. we still have middling talent ready to be out next wave.  
We still have Gallo on this team. Who takes away AB's from potentially both Wallner and Larnach. We still have an upcoming IF crunch to address when Lewis comes back in a  short bit.
We still have zero apparent plan going forward into next year to compete.  Gallo gone next year (addition by subtraction) Kepler, unless he stays on fire the rest of the year will be gone, Taylor is a FA, we have no established 3B at the moment for next year. With Kiriloff's injury we still have noone we can count on all year long at 1B next year, we are still handcuffed at DH as who knows if Buxton will be able to play the field next year. Our pitching still has Gray gone as a FA, if we think we will get a draft pick with a QO forget it. nobody will sign Gray to a multi year deal at his age with draft pick compensation tied to him, so we will lose him for nothing. If you cannot see that coming as a FO guy you should not be a FO guy. Maeda will be gone, Keuchle, if we add him will not be here next year.
 
At least the Indina made moves to improve the future while still being able to contend in this division!!
 
So back to my original question, is it OK to hope for a collapse if it means the longterm health (or at least a better chance at long term health) of the team I love?