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Doc Munson

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Everything posted by Doc Munson

  1. This trade will help us on the periphery (did I spell/use that word correctly??) LOL. Willi Castro has shown the importance of speed. The Angels are now keeping Ohtani and will be buyers (and will need pitching) The Yankees need an upgrade at 3B!! What ties these three things together? Well a creative trade of course!!! YANKEES GET: Anthony Rendon from the Angels ANGELS GET: Josh Donaldson from the Yankees, Kyle Farmer and a starting pitcher. maybe Dallas Kuchle? Maeda pitching too well to be the one to go, but maybe if we get even better value than this trade proposal then include him. Twins GET: Jordyn Adams from the Angels (Angels #25 prospect) and Luis Gil from the Yankees (Yanks #14 prospect). Plus a PTBNL from each team. If the Yankees reach the playoffs this year then we get Roderick Arias, if they dont, then we get some high risk high upside single A pitcher. and same with the Angels. we get a PTBNL based on if they make the playoffs. WHY THIS WORKS... FOR YANKEES: Rendon would a significant upgrade for the Yankees struggling offense, and lock in 3B for the next few years (assuming he would waive NT to go to Yankees). They really do not have much in the pipeline for the hot corner. Trey Sweeney is by default the best option in the minors, and that is nto saying much. The cost of this swap for this year for the Yankees is mitigated by being able to move off of Donaldson's deal. FOR THE ANGELS: This is a combo improve now and increase odds of retaining Ohtani move. Who would you rather have on your roster? Rendon or Otani? by clearing Rendon's $38M over the next 3 years, that makes a $50M Ohtani deal VERY affordable. Kyle Farmer is a quality 3B replacement this year, This is an absolute no brainer for the Angels. and maybe we incldue Trevor Larnach if Angels include Jo Adell, this would give Angels another healthy OF with potential, and we get a RH outfielder. The Angles can just DFA Donaldson and still save money, and use Farmer as the repalcement 3B. But again this move is 99.99% focused on putting the Angels in position to retain Ohtani after this year. they can immediately after this deal give Ohtani a 10 year $500M contract... AND AFFORD IT FOR THE TWINS: Assuming we stay with the base deal, the Twins will be giving up very lttle. If we move Kuechle, that has zero impact. If we give up a differnt starter (not sure who) then Kuechle COULD be a good replacement if his rehab is for real. Giving up Farmer would have little overall impact because we will have a glut of players coming back soon. Polanco, Gordon, Lewis. and Julien and Castro are going nowhere, so what do you do??? little impact going out, and while not a TON of impact coming back in, this is the "around the edges" move the Twins FO has been talking about. We get Adams with his electric speed. he can back up CF, or play primary CF down the stretch. this also gives us flexibility/protection for CF next year. would be a great pinch runner down the stretch and into the playoffs. Luis Gil, more than likely will not be back from TJ this year, If he can come back still this year, he could be a good bullpen arm that we need down the stretch, and into the future. This deal gives us some upgrades without touching anything of importance. Gies us upgrades, plus a couple younger, cheaper future pieces. As I mentioned at the start, Castro has shown the impact of speed, if we get Adams, and DFA Gallo (or try and include him in the deal to the Angels for THEM to deal with) and have Adams in CF, Castro in LF/utility, and when Lewis gets back that is 3 players who are a threat to steal on any pitch.
  2. OK seriously now, why is Gallo still on this team? He seem sliek a great guy and all, but he is a massive detriment to our offense. Last 7 games = 16 AB an 11K's Small sample size you say? Ok last 15 games = 35 AB and 21K;s OK still "streaky"?? last 30 games = 75 AB and 46K's But really do you have to do any specific breakdown of a guy whose season line shows a .174 avg against just 17 HR? and had struck out 110 times in just 224 ABs?? Just DFA him, and thank him for his early season success.
  3. Why why why do you pinch hit for Wallner???? just another example of overmanaging due to analytics!!! So you lose your backup catcher, and you weaken the defense if we do not score. his AB would have most likely not ended the game anyways. the onyl thing that ends the game there is an XBH, nto a walk, not a single, not a HBP, not an out and possibyl not even a "soft" double. So you will still need to rely on anotehr AB to win the game. I am not saying Wallner would have gotten a hit, but he has had good ABs today, and even if he gets out the game still continues!!! (just like what happened with Vasquez). IF the runner was on 2nd and a simple single would have won it. OK I can see that. the reason you dont pinch hit your backup catcher in that situation darn near came to fruition with Jeffers taking that ball to the face. just BAD BAD BAD managing. Let Wallner get an AB. keep your RH back up catcher for a more impactful AB.
  4. Luckily we play in the AL Central, but is the Twins window of opportunity to contend slamming shut? What will this team look like next year? and no I am not looking to next year already!! hehe, I am looking at next year to help determine what moves should be done at the trade deadline THIS year. our FA after this year... Joey Gallo (should be released anyways, but no way he is back next year) Max Kepler (see above) Michael Taylor.. HE has been a great signing, maybe we resign if cheap, but as of now a FA Kenta Maeda Sonny Gray No chance he comes back. Basically our entire starting OF and 40% of the rotation. Granted Ober, Ryan, and Lopez are a good 3 to build around. SO who do we have "plug -n-play" for OF next year? cross fingers Buxton can play OF, Hope Wallner can show he is the real deal. Larnach hasn't been able to be consistent over long run, can Austin Martin get healthy and fulfill his promise? even if Emmanual Rodriguez can get things going in the minors he is still a bit off. Could we move AK to OF if we can upgrade 1b?? maybe but optimal. My philosophy is SPEED SPEED SPEED!!! OS my move at the deadline this year is to go after young near MLB ready prospects. This brings me once again to Jordyn Adams. His bat is finally coming around over the last year and a half, albeit at a hitter friendly ballpark. But a .264 avg and an .817 OPS with 33 steals against just 3 CS. he is a Gold Glove Calibur CF who could replace Taylor as the insurance against Buxton, and if Buxton can play CF, then we slide Adams to LF... or would a move to LF help Buxton???? his RH bat helps balance our lineup. You put Adams in at #9 and potentially Royce Lewis at leadoff, and you have 2 burners back to back. You can really start playing some games with those two in order. This works both this year and into the future, This year can have Adams/Castro LF Taylor/Adams CF, Wallner RF. And Adams shouldnt cost TOO much... how about we send Kuechle and either Gallo or Kepler if they will take them.
  5. Doc Munson

    2nd half moves

    Does this FO, and Field Manager realize their jobs are the line? OR is this just a situation fo ..."thou doth protest too much"? The insistence that the cures to our offensive woes are currently on this team are baffling. Of course you need to publicly back your guys... to a certain extent. You cannot continue to back your guys as they are setting ALL TIME strike out records, and other standards of offensive ineptness of historical nature. So what do we do? and who is available? I am not going to do a deep dive into who are sellers and what they are selling, instead just take a quick look on what our team can control. the record setting ineptness on our offense means at a minimum the hitting coach goes. IF you have SOME guys striking out a tone and others not, then you can pin it on the players. when EVERYONE K's, then it is the general approach/hitting philosophy. And this ladies and gentlemen come from the hitting coach. Even changing hitting coach and our overall approach wont help too much, because our FO did the shopping and secured players who are all or nothing type hitters. which brings us to the players. Gallo. Seems like a nice person, and can hit the HR. 15 HR at the break is ok in general, but for someone who has a .186 avg, K's at nearly a 50% clip and produces a total of 28 runs on those 15 HR it is no longer all that ok. It was an interesting try, and he single handedly helped us win multiple games right out the gate, but he needs to go. No questions asked. Buxton, while I just trashed Gallo, one could say that Buxton's numbers are in the same ballpark across the board, with even lower OPS, yes but he is signed long term, and no one will take that contract, so as much as it hurts him clogging up DH, he stays. Kepler, he also needs to be gone... like yesterday. His K rate is not nearly as bad as the first two above, it is in fact someone decent at about. 25%, We all thought the no shifts would be a boost for Kepler, but he is hitting just .207, and an unplayable .688 OPS. He plays a good defense and on a juggernaut of an offense, you could afford to keep him and bat him 7, but on this offense you cant. What makes it worse is that we are wasting the potential (and yes I hate that word too) of Matt Wallner as we continue to let Gallo (no future with this team even taking this year out of it) play over someone who COULD have a future, and couldn't perform worse. And Here is the weird thing... on a team of epic offensive futility, I just laid out a case (with exception of Buxton, but sad he plugs up DH) of removing our top 3 HR hitters!!! haha That in and of itself shows how the "swing for the fences" style just doesn't work!!! QUICK!!! who is #3 on the team in RBI? Yes, it is still Trevor Larnach!!!! and he is only 7 back of the team lead. Yes that should scare and depress you!!! as well as "FAlvine". Ultimately the Twins need to find their "Elly De La Cruz". Of course players of that Calibur are generational, but what I am talking about a player with that attitude, A player that is going to say... "You know what... I am going to get on base and steal 2nd, 3rd, and Home in the span of 2 pitches". We need to go away from the sell out for the HR, and go to a RUN RUN RUN offensive philosophy. Give me a .260-.275 hitter who has the ability to steal bases on command... AND give the green light at all times, over a high K high HR guy any day. Put pressure on the pitcher incentivize guys to swing for doubles and we score a ton more runs... and HR will come naturally. Heck, if nothing else, just go ahead and give DaShawn Keirsey a call up from our system. At 26 and his secodn stint at AA he is hitting over .300 (career .258) with 50-60 SB type speed. Or trade fro Jordyn Adams from LA Angels, Just do SOMETHING!!! We cannot just stand pat and "hope" our guys will just magically turn it around. iF we do then not only is this season at risk, but we will go into 2024 with more questions than answers on the field, and have new openeings in FO and Head Coach to come in next year to start their own 2-3 year rebuild plan.
  6. Hindsight is 20/20. Who knew our offense would be THIS pathetic? Plus we did need to improve our pitching. but lets take a look at some recent trades and the impact of each. Lets get the big one out of the way early here. Arraez for Lopez. You have to give something to get something, and yes I think we all knew we were giving away the probable2023 batting champ, seriously??? .400??? Just imagine what he would be doing in our lineup?!?!!! He would most likely be playing 1B so lets take a look at the Twins 1B stats. Arraez for Lopez (+prospects) Twins 1B = 9 HR 32 RBI 35 BB 80 K 251/357/435 slash line for a .792 OPS. nto horrible NOTE MLB does not assign Runs when sort by position, but Would assume we would be near the bottom. Arraez = 2 HR 35 RBI 21 BB 15 K 400/450/490 slash line for a .940 OPS. his 31 runs seems low for getting on base that much, but he gets on base!!! and does not strike out!! Lopex has been decent. not spectacular, but #2 in AL with 110K, he hsa a top 16 in AL WHIP at 1.14. ERA is pedestrian 4.4o before tonight's tough outing. We were able to extend him which has some value. Overall a decent #3 starter for a batting champ hitting .400? that is a bit tough. BUT we did get 2 prospects as well. Jose Salas. 20 yr old SS at High A. struggling, but a top 10 prospect in our system. Byron Chourio, 18 year old in Rookie league... TBD RESULT? would still POSSIBLY do it, it had to be done but still hurt, now knowing how bad the offense is struggling it is a coinflip if I'd redo, but fair enough. Tyler Mahle Trade. This one was 2022 but still counts as it is impacting 2023. Mahle had a huge injury risk before trading for him, so this is not revisionist history. this trade just straight up should not have been done!!! or at least not given up what we did. What did we give up? Spencer Steer. versatile player. we probably didn't have much room for him, but he is having a strong RC campaign in Cinci. but again, redundant here so I understand including him. P Steve Hajjar, with all due respect to Steve, a bit of a nothing burger here. But what made me throw my computer (figuratively) seeing this trade was the inclusion fo Christian Encarnacion Strand. This kid is a BEAST. and should have been untouchable. career .325/388/614 for a 1.002 OPS!! This is a trade that should make GMs lose their jobs. Without CES, I am ok with it. you trade a blocked above average prospect for a pitcher who is good when healthy but big injury concerns. btu the CES makes this HORRID!!! Another 2022 that Many of us saw falling completely apart before the first pitch was thrown was the Chris Paddack trade. Paddack for Rogers and Rooker. OK a bit of revisionist history here. (on the Rooker side). I did actually receive a strike against me on Twins Daily here for my description on how easily his Paddack's health status would turn out. I will not restate that here, but I will say it should have been very obvious!!!! Paddack was a lost season injury waiting to happen, and he happened. Rogers, that FIRST year was DOMINANT!!! but we are talking about this year, so who cares about that. Rooker did finally establish himself this year, although coming back to earth a bit after hot start. But Paddack was lost fro 2022 and for 2023, so again HORRID trade as this was totally foreseeable. SO again a trade that may not get GMS fired, but should tighten the leash. Jorge Lopez for prospects. OK this one I cant really hammer the team on, it was a pretty good move at the time, and Lopez pitched fairly well last year, but where we stand now could be the worst of the lot. Lopez has issues (on the field. I do not criticize players off the field). he is nto a major league pitcher. Yennier Cano, one fo the prospects given up is DOMINATING in Baltimore!!! this alone makes it horrid in retrospect. Imagine Cano & Duran!! Cade Povich seems like a decent prospect, a high K pitcher, most likely reliever in the bigs doing fairly well in Baltimore system. adn a couple others (one to watch in the futur eis Juan Rojas currently 19 year old injured) but to me this is purely a Lopez/Cano deal, and as it sits now, we had HORRIBLE results. Michael Taylor for 2 prospects. Thi sone is a good trade, adn look sbetter when seeing how we are not going to play Buxton in CF (or does this make it worse? would we play Buck in CF if we didnt have Taylor???) overall a good trade so far. So overall I have to say: Michael Taylor = B+ Jorge Lopez = D possibyl F based on current situation Paddack = D (if we gace up more I would have given a F- Mahle = F- Pablo Lopez = C- (you knew what it would look like but had to do it) Overall trade grade for FO = D maybe D+ due to Michael Taylor. So that begs the question... why should we trust this FO when making Moves that NEED to happen?? Becasue overall any moves will be addition by subtraction. Future Move #1: DFA Kepler. Ok go ahead and see if you can get cash considerations for him, but he has ZERO trade value. replace him with Wallner. Future Move #2 DFA/trade Gallo. so he has a DECENT OPS. but his K rate and .192 avg just cant play. Future Move #3 Trade Sonny Gray... wait WHAT??? yes you heard me. he is about the only thing of value to trade on this team. He will not be back next year as he will command more than the Twins will be willing to pay. plus he HATES the short leashes pitchers get here with the Twins so he will choose elsewhere for same/less money. if we QO offer him in teh offseason, he will go unsigned anyways, as he will be 34 and nobody will give him a multi year deal at $20M+ with a QO tag associated. so lets trade him now get some value. as this team is currently constructed he is a luxury. a #1 starter on a bad team. yes we may win this bad division, but only to get bumped in first round (possibly swept again) we can get these same results without him, so trade him and get value!!! Future move #4 Buxton must play CF!! Who cares if he stays healthy if he isnt producing? and we are losing with him in the lineup now so who cares ifhe gets injured and misses time by playing in OF. AT LEAST 2 games a week he needs to be in CF. if it doesnt give the TEAM a spark, it could give the FANS a spark. Future move #5 Royce Lewis needs to play EVERY DAY!! (assuming he is healthy, and I am guessing they doing "load management" with his 2 knee surgeries, but again at least give FANS a spark. I am leaving it with on field moves for now, but would not be opposed to losing hitting coach (high number of K's across the board speaks to team approach), trainer (we brought in a training guru but how many hammies have we had this year and other DL stints???) Head Coach (cannot pull starters after 75 pitches, cannot pinch hit a sub .200 hitter for your hottest hitter, cannot set a lineup against an "opener" only to pinch-hit for your starting DH after 2 innings. and of course based on the trading scorecard GMs cannot trade away quality players for pitchers with known injury histories and expect history to not repeat itself. WOW that went way longer than I anticipated!!!! LOL
  7. Somewhat unrelated to this specific post, but it is strange that they fired previous trainer due to all the injuries suffered, and with the new guy we are having an inordinate amount of hamstring issues. What is that about?
  8. I have come to the conclusion, as many other have very recently that the Twins are simply TOO good. Is there another league we could be promoted to? I mean fo rthe fairness of all other MLB teams? Could we petition MLB to allow for a 10th and 11th position in the lineup? Hands have now been officially and sufficiently wrung with regards to how to get even more 1st ballot unanimous HOF players into this already legendary lineup. It was tough enough to find any spot for the historically dominant Alex Kirilloff. After all how fair is it to a player who as put up gaudy numbers such as the just north of .250 avg and darn near touching .700 OPS. I mean he darn near hits triple digits in OPS+!!! and thank the heavens we did because out of all fo the dominant bats in this lineup he single handed carried us to a "non-no hitter"!!! I mean what other team has the luxury of demoting the teams leader in RBI to replace with a future HOF? A team SO dominant that have the luxury of NOT playing a Platinum Glove CF on defense, in order to allow us the luxury of DH who does not strike out 65% of his plate appearances!!! That is like TWO THIRDS of the time is not a guaranteed out!!! Like we weren't a team with an embarrassment of riches already, We now have to figure out how to get yet another guaranteed lock of an All-Star, MVP, HOF player in Royce Lewis his ABs in the lineup within the next 20 days. He has already proven himself over the course fo a full 7.5% of a season that he is the next best player in the league!! I mean the player so good we dumped our RBI leader has just over Lewis' number over the last YEAR AND A HALF!!! let alone 7.5% of a season!! In all seriousness though, what do we do with Lewis fi he comes back raking in AAA? If you look at the Twins top hitters average wise (who qualify with enough AB's) we have 4. hitting... Buxton leads the way at .239, Larnach .221 (no longer on team) Miranda at .219 and Correa at .193. If he can be the spark that he was last year he needs to be here, and if he is who does he replace? His 2 primary positions he will be playing in minors 3B & SS are filled by Miranda and Correa. they are not moving anywhere. Polanco at 2B is set. What about 1B? Miranda COULD move back over there, but that would mean Kirilloff so his injured, underperforming self. Even though he injured himself in the OF there is still technically an option. Does he replace Gallo? Kepler? Taylor? none of them are scared cows, but I m not sure I see it too much. Does he replace DH? Well if we are set on keeping Bubble(wrap) Boy in the DH slot that aint happening. But maybe Lewis' arrival is exactly what the Twins are waiting on??? He will be back June 1st at the earliest, assuming everything goes as planned. At the beginning of the season it was said that Buxton would be EASED back into CF by starting out at DH. Are they now too scared to play him there? and leave him at DH permanently? or would the 1st 2 months of the season be an adequate amount of time to ease Buxton in? Maybe they were anticipating Lewis back in June/July the whole time, and the plan was Buxton DH's until then, and then open up DH for Miranda, by having Buxton back in CF and Lewis playing 3B? If you are going to be wanting to get Lewis back on the team sooner rather than later, and he hasn't played ball in a year, then you want him to get reps in the field where he will be playing on the big league level. and he will be playing SS/3B in the minors. That means either a rotation of SS/3B for Lewis with Correa & Miranda getting "rest days" as DH... which means Buxton back in CF, or it means a set position which will not be SS, so it will be 3B with Miranda either moving to 1B or DH. With us being in 1st place, and our pitching being strong, a spot will not open up via trade. OF course way too early to start planning, btu "what if" Lewis comes out swinging??? What do you see the Twins doing to get his bat and his jolt in the lineup?
  9. The Twins will need all of their starting pitching depth, and then some more than likely. Even the healthiest teams use 6-7 starters over the course of a full season. Factoring in recent injury woes for Twins pitchers and one thinks the Twins will use 6-7 starters easily this year. But lets assume the Twins keep a 5 man rotation. With the Twins most likely using 6-7, there will still be 4-5 "Primary starters". and 2-3 that will either be short term starters, sporadic starters, or spot starters. We have some obvious Primary Starters locked in. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez are locks. Lets go ahead and assume that Tyler Mahle is fully healthy and will be good to go. that is a 4th no brainer. So who is, or better yet who SHOULD be #5? I can tell you right who IS, or WILL be #5, and that is Kenta Maeda. The Twins will be banking on Maeda being the All Star level pitcher he was in 11 games in the Covid shortened 2020 season. Where in 11 games he went 66 innings, good for a 6+ inning average with 80K against 10 BB a 2.70 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. But... SHOULD he be th e5th starter? and is it reasonable to expect that after a year+ off? His career averages are a 3.87 ERA just under a 4:1 K:BB rate, a 9.85K/9 and a 1.14 WHIP. Those are still very good numbers anyone would love to have in the rotation. That being said, in albeit a much shorter sample size, Ober has career numbers of 3.82 ERA, just under a 5:1 K rate, a 9K/9IP and a 1.15 WHIP.. If we go by the numbers, it says they are both equally effective starting pitchers. And the question you must ask then is... "IF they are both equal, and both interchangeable for each other, then who should be the 5th starter?" "Common sense" or maybe more accurately "traditional thinking" says it should be Maeda, as Ober still has options. But should he??? I would argue we need to look longer term. Any player CAN be resigned this offseason, so in theory ANY of our starters could be back, BUT... in reality we will not resign everyone, and we actually have only Randy Dobnak and Chris Paddack under contract for next year. Of course Joe Gray will be here, and will still have rights to Lopez, BUT the only sure things are Dobnak and Paddack. Most likely Sonny Gray and Maeda will be gone. With that in mind, I think the correct way to look at things, assuming both pitchers should give roughly the same results is to go with the pitcher who will still be here going forward and continue to give him the experience and build up he will need for next year. This way next year is not his first "full year" in the rotation and is not as much of a question mark. Secondly while predominately a starter in LA, Maeda did also show he can be very successful out of the bullpen, and if you are a cheapskate you can save millions in bonuses paid to Maeda with him in a relief/PT starter situation. The clear way of thinking screams the 5th starter needs to be Ober vs Maeda.
  10. That was one of the top 3 games ever at the Dome. Sadly one thing still sticks in my mind though, and it is a memory that makes me ashamed and embarrassed to have been there. The stadium wide chants of "Al-CO-HO-LIC!!!!" When Miguel Cabrera came to the plate. Crazy, awesome, tense, fun, suspense filled game that today I still can't fully enjoy to this day. OF course at the time I was young and stupid and thought how cool it was, but again looking back embarrassed.
  11. Doc Munson

    Who's on 1st

    First off, it is very sad to see a fun, popular, and "kid friendly" player such as Arraez get moved. As has been said in many other places though, it was the right baseball move. Has enough time passed where we can ask what the impact will be on the roster? if so... What is the impact of the Luis Arraez trade on the roster?? hehe Obviously 2 big areas are immediately impacted. DH & 1B Who's On 1st? Obviously you have to start with Kirilloff. You would assume it is his to lose. Working on the impression the Miranda is 100% moving to 3B. There have been rumors of Yuli Guriel interest, but really if we even consider that, then we need to consider (close your eyes people) Miguel Sano as well. Guriel was a 85 OPS plus which means he was 15% below average. No tworth a move in my opinon. DO we move Kepler to 1B? The down side of the Arraez trade is we are left with very little PROVEN comodity at 1B. My move is to reach out to Washington and check in on a Kirillof for recently signed Dom SMith direct trade. Can you trade a recently signed FA?? I dont know. short of that move I see it being Kirilloff. Who do you see as the opening day 1B? DH is another impacted position, however with more options, yet equally unproven options. Yes Buxton will take weekly DH ABs, Correa might as well in order to protect long term. I do not see a PURE DH bat on this roster except for possibly Wallner. Gallo is a big bat but supposedly plays some strong defense. Again like 1B there is not a ton of significant upgreads out there at DH. While I commend Falvie for having patience and getting a good deal for Arraez, the down side of such patience is that quality other options are no longer available. For the opening day primary DH, I am going to have to go ahead and go with Wallner, or maybe cheat and say a Wallner/Larnach platoon. WHo do you see as opening day primary DH? AND if Kepler still gets moved, and there really is no need at this point as we have a pretty solid rotation, maybe for a bullpen arm??? but at this point with a set rotation we might as well go with a quality OF defense of Kepler, Gallo, Buxton. BTU if he does still get moved,then you have to assume the entore OF/1B/DH logjam is releived and all 3 of Kirilloff, Larnach, adn Wallner are on the openign day roster. right??
  12. On a side note, has there been any articles speaking to his conditioning? That would be the only contributing facto rin my mind. IF with his career on teh line after getting released, he has STILL not taken the offseason to focus 100% on his weight/conditioning/health/whatever, then he is not focused enough on his career. IF on the other hand he would have used the offseason to lose weight (takes pressure off those knees), get into yoga or some form of strenght & flexibility program. Then I would 100% offer him a deal. At his age he still has at least a decetn chance of making some godo money over the next 5 years or so. But it starts with a rebound year this year, followed by a prove it wasnt a fluke year next year, adn then he could sign a 2-3 year deal for $15-20M plus. Still good money to be made in this game, and if he hasn't focused on this in the offseason, then he never will.
  13. I'd see if Kepler and Farmer and a prospect coudl get us the remains of Chris Sale from teh Red Sox. After losing Xander, and now Story having elbow surgery, Sox are in a bad spot.
  14. I actually now hope the Twins do NOTHING ELSE this offseason. At this point it is a strong ball club. In order to go deep in the playoffs we may need to add pitching, but I do not think we need to add pitching to be in contention. We have some top quality prospects, but they shoudl really only be dealt at this point to put us over the top. Lets roll with the rotation listed above, along with the young near MLB ready prospects for the first half of the year. I think the worst thing the Twins could do at this point is give up some potential top prospects for pitching too early. Last year was the perfect example. we traded Chase Petty for Sonny Gray. What did that do for us? Yes Sonny Gray had a very good season, and should help this year as well, btu we still didn't make the playoffs. Completely "happenstancily" if that is word, and it does not mean we should not give up good prospects to get good quality MLB players, and yes Chase may never pan out. but that is not the point The point is, you just don't trade that quality of prospect until you HAVE to. You can trade from organizational depth early on in the preseason, but shoudlnt trade top prospect suntil you have to or unless the deal is too good to pass up. (and was the Sonny Gray one???maybe) ANyways I am rambling again. My point is I like our team as it sits. I think we can contend with it. Lets make some moves and even trade some top propsects, just not now. start the season relatively "AS IS" and then be aggressive B-E aggressive mid season. :) LOL
  15. Again I think another person missing the point. I agree with all... ok MOST of your points. BUT... Again I NEVER said to PASS on Correa., and I am not sure I saw any other commenters saying to pass on Correa. Would you say it is fair to say that there was most likely a plan in place for how we would be moving forward at SS prior to Correa becoming available again? and would it not be fair to say it most likely involved playing the person they traded for (Farmer) initially? and would it also not be fair to assume that our top 2 prospects who both could be on the team come September would have come in to play as potential long term SS plans? And would it not be fair to say that Correa is more than likely better than them? and that as a a result there is a chance he could be playing the position that they otherwise might be playing? and as a result would it not be fair to ponder on how that would impact their futures and how the Twins would now use them? ALSO, would it also not be fair to say that if 2 teams who REALLY wanted him but were concerned about his health, and as a result he said he would switch positions presumably to stay healthy for the long run (or maybe it was just to play in NY and that was the only place he would switch to 3B) then would it not be a fair question to ponder on if him moving to 3B for the Twins would also make help keep him healthy in the long run? And if so then what impact would THAT have on the presumed otherwise starter at 3B? Of course you "slot in prospects". Especially on a team that has historically been fiscally conservative. contracts matter. Yes you have to earn playing time, primarily in Spring training. But I honestly do not think someone has to OUTPLAY Kepler to get the job. If the Twins think they can get EQUAL contributions from any of Larnach, Kiriloff, Wallner, etc then they will trade Kepler and save the money. Secondly, even if you "beat someone out" in Spring Training, that is still just Spring Training, Where is anyone saying to pass on better players??? I guess maybe I should have phrased the question... and what I hoped would be fun debate, would be "How do you put together the best team surrounding Correa if we are lucky enough to sign? And golly gee willickers that sure would be swell if we could!" Another aspect of building a team is/are option. If one player has options left and the other does not, then more often than not... and even on the best teams, the player who has options left gets sent down. And actually, your very first sentence hits to the point of this thread, You say... "n my opinion--you take the best players you can and plug them in to make your team." Who are you best players? and where would you play them? it is FUN to speculate!! :)
  16. Who says I aint glad? and YES we would be asking how it impacts other pitchers. We would for instance assume that possibly one of the current top 5 gets moved to the bullpen to boost the bullpen. then of course if there is current junk in the pen they would be gone. talking about how one player might impact other players is not griping about signing "The Good One"!!! It is wondering (excitiedly) how the rest of the team will fill out to build out the best championship contending team possible. again what makes you think this discussion is about whether we would WANT to incorporate him? I think you misread the tome/meaning of this post. You think there weren't discussions in New York about what signing Correa would mean for Brett Baty? and Eduardo Escobar? and what the potential shift of Baty to the OF would do for THAT group? And how it would have sucked to lose a fan favorite in Escobar? Even at the expense of getting a much better player? I WANTED Correa, and I am EXCITED he is here ( I wouldn't have been if it was 10 years). And I am excited to talk... ok ramble incessantly and incomprehensibly... about the myriad of possibilities the Twins could do to field the final lineup. Aint gonna apologies for that. :) GO TWINS!!!
  17. Assuming, he paases OUR physical... lol. Nwo that Correa is signed How do the Twins use him this year? and how does it impact others? Check out the poll attached and let us know. IF you choose "other" please share what you think the Twins should do with him (or others).
  18. Sorry for the quick double post, but just read an article at MLBtraderumors.com that Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes have both reported this. OK, so lets assume this happens.. what is the trickle down? #1 I say we go and also sign Nelson Cruz. pair them up!!! they both love Miranda and want to work with him!! :) But for those already on the team what does it mean? What does it mean for current future infield? We just traded for Kyle Farmer, does this now mean we will look to flip him somewhere? What Kind of SS/IF needy teams remain? and what could we get? For Royce Lewis this means SS is blocked, so he is now an OF candidate when he returns. Brooks Lee, he would also have otherwise most likely made his MLB debut this September, what is HIS new home? Coudl either of them move to 3B? well Miranda is slated for 3B, Could Miranda stay at 1B? What does that do for Kirilloff and Arraez? What does it mean for veteran players? Signing Correa would show we are looking to contend. Do you want to contend with unproven players in OF such as Larnach, Wallner, Kirillof, Austin Martin, even Royce lewis who is out for a but still? or do you want to roll with Kepler? If the Twins make a FININCIAL follow up move then Kepler is gone as his $8.5M may be too much for potential equal numbers from any above... but again POTENTIAL. You also do not trade a controllable young sparkplug batting champ if you are looking to contend, but then again look at the trickle down moves a Correa signing does. if the option would be to put Miranda at 1B and have either Farmer, or eventually Lee man 3B then where does Arraez get his ABs? Are you going to keep him as DH? What does this mean for prospects? We were already in a position where our near MLB prospects and current position players were going to be coming to a crunch. The OF/1B/DH trio where we have the above mentioned Larnach, Wallner, Kiriloff, Austin Martin near ready, Royce Lewis when healthy is a go, Brooks Lee is a quick to the bigs player, not to mention players liek Edouard Julien who coudl be pushing for time. All while have roster spots fill by Kepler, Gallo, Polanco, Gordon, Now Farmer (not including my desire to sign Cruz as DH lol). That is a lot of MLB ready/near MLB ready talent and you hate to let them rot on the vine by keeping them all. SO who goes? iF Correa signs at least 3, maybe 4 of these players will not be with the Twins come opening day. they will be traded for pitching. If Correa was willing to move to 3rd in NY, would he be willing here? IF he is (and he will most likely at SOME point during career) then Id say the thing to do is... Correa pays 3B start with Farmer until Lewis or Lee are ready. Miranda plays 1B. Polanco gets to stay at 2B. This makes Arraez expendable (sadly) and he will be one of the guys with the highest trade value so you move him. Trade both Kiriloff and Kepler, and the OF is Buxton Gallo and Larnach, with Wallner as DH (unless we sign Cruz). You actually call Miami and see if they are interested in a BIG trade where we get multiple of there available pitchers. Say Max Meyer, and Pablo Lopez for Arraez, Kepler and Kiriloff. Anyways... How exactly do you see teh Twins addressing the redundancies if Correa DOES sign??
  19. So as I was thinking about my off teh wall deal to benefit from and help the Mets secure Carlos Correa, I thought of a way that a trade would be legal under current rules (presumably) The end result is still the same. it allows the Mets to offset the risk of the final couple of years of Correa's 12 year $315M contract due to the ankle. Currently there are deals that include PTBNL. Currently the CBA allows for "cash considerations" to come into play to help offset the cost of salaries being moved from one team to the next. SO lets take those two known and accepted trade chips. The Twins trade Max Kepler (With the expectation that the Mets must immediately pick up the team option for him for 2024) along with recently signed Christian Vasquez. The Twins also send the Mets "Cash Considerations" in the amount of $50M. Of course the Twins woudl need a significant return by trading away their starting catcher and RF AND kicking in $50M to basically cover 100% of their salaries. Or at least as far as the trade goes that is why we are kicking in money, and nto to pay the final years of Correa's deal **wink wink**. In return the Twins get Francisco Alvarez, and Player(s)To Be Named Later. lets say at least 2 if not 3 additional PTBNL. That is a straight up trade that is fair and within MLB guidelines... I presume. If we can structure the $50M payout over time, then we pay $1M for each of the next 10 years, and then $20M each in year 11 & year 12. Of course this coincidentally coincides with the final 2 years of Correa's deal, and if it is front loaded the first 2 years of the deal at $33M instead of the $26.25 AAV and then the last 2 years are at $20M. Now the Mets have themselves some insurance against injury. If it CANT be paid out like that, and has to be paid out over the course of the existing contracts, then we simply pay $18.5M this year, $20M next year and $10M the third year, and it is up to the Mets to use those funds to offset Correas deal at the back end. The PTBNL must be chosen within 6 months. the MLB player draft is 7/9-7/11, so we agree in principle on a trade, but do not execute it until just before Spring training to allow for any player the Mets pick in the draft to be eligible to be a PTBNL. SO what kind of haul would we get in this scenario? well lets assume whoever the Mets take in teh 1st round of the draft is a solid propsect. It would look something like... #1 Francisco Alvarez - the top prospect in all of baseball, and potentially secure our catching situation for the next decade. then 3 PTBNL PTBNL #1: Possibly Brett Baty, a MLB ready top prospect. he is a 3B/OF so somewhat redundant to what we already have but quality young depth is nto a bad thing!!! PTBNL #2: Lets assume whoever the Mets take in teh 1st round of teh draft. PTBNL #3: Lots of options, could go with big bats that are also near MLB ready like Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, Or could go super young with a prospect like 17 year old Simon Juan (compared to a young Byron Buxton/George Springer) to "layer arrivals". OR could try a pitching prospect like Blade Tidwell. and while you could say the Twins cannot afford to pay out $50M. But there is a way you can rationalize it. The Twins would have been on the hook for at least $40M, and the whole $50M if we would have picked up Kepler's option for next year at $10M. So if we would have been paying that for Vasquez & Kepler, and we have league minimum players in Alvarez, and one of Baty, Wallner, Larnach, Kiriloff replacing Kepler, all at league minimum, and all being potential upgrades, then it really is a wash. The Mets can afford to move Alvarez, because they still have the #4 catching prospect who is also near MLB ready AND would have Vasquez in place for the short term. And with Correa going to 3rd, Baty also becomes somewhat expendable. There was talk of him moving to OF, but they get very good defender in Kepler who has potential to be a good bat as well. I would say a Correa/Kepler combo would out Produce a Alvarez/Baty combo for a contending team. This is a deal that can get done independently of them signign Correa, but get done with the signing of Correa in mind for the Mets.
  20. Not to be negative, but I was hoping this would have been a touch more creative. Let me recap... Royce Lewis Resolution = Be good Brooks Lee Resolution = Be good Emmanuel Rodriguez Resolution = Be good Connor Prielipp Resolution = Be good Simeon Woods Richardson Resolution = Be good BRILLIANT!!!
  21. Yes, I can agree to that. another LH bat that plays 1st and occasional OF could be redundant. For 100% transparency I am just a big Dominic Smith fan. But yeah we would need to move Kirilloff and Arraez... AND Kepler to make Dom a good fit. Shoudl we move 3 players just to resign 1 similar player? I guess it all depends on what we can get for the three, and the cost of the one. but again since I am a Dom fan I say YES!!!!! hehe. And interesting you bring up Cruz, I was going to include him as well. LOL WHile we want to get away from a a DH only type, and is Cruz's last 1.5 seasons his eventual decline? I dont care!! he is a great hitter that can teach young guys and a great clubhouse presence and would love Boomstick back in this lineup!! :)
  22. This is all of course predicated on Correa staying in New York. Also a couple of these moves are related to each other. #1 Trading redundant players. Not breaking any news here. Kepler and even Arraez have both been mentioned as trade candidates. Especially after the Joey Gallo signing. Yes the Twins could very easily keep Kepler and go with an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Gallo. AND if they feel Kepler will have a strong season with the shift rules changes, then the best move is to keep him and potentially trade him for higher value at the deadline. If he has a strong 1st half then that $10M team option for next year greatly increases his trade value. I am not sure what the trade value is for either Kepler or Arraez, so I am not going to sit here and say.. Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching This trade group is also not limited to Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff could all also be slotted into this scenario. We cannot play them all, and there may even be better overall fits out there instead of them (although I like Wallner and Larnach). And this brings me to move #2... #2 Sign Domnic Smith. I still cannot believe he is unsigned. Dom is not a game changer, but he can play GG caliber defense at 1B. and has a very solid bat, with even "great bat" potential. He never got consistent ABs at his natural 1B position with the Mets. He could be signed at a very team friendly deal at this point. If there is decent trade value in Kirilloff, Kepler, any other LH or potential 1B on this squad then trading them and signing Dom is a great move, because not only would we secure Dom cheaply, but also get some return for players he will replace. #3 Call Texas regarding Ezequiel Duran. This again is dependent on what else we do, especially if we trade Arraez. Yes we have Farmer as a potential SS/utility IF kind of guy, but Ezequiel Duran can play MORE positions, is younger/cheaper, and I think an overall superior bat. he is a natural 2B, but can play 3B & SS, and has gotten some time in the OF. with Seager, Simien, Jung on the IF he is blocked. Maybe this is a good swap with Kepler as Texas is still looking for an OF. and while I like Polanco at 2B he is $7.5M this year and $10.5 next. SO this also helps free up cash IF the Twins ever decide to step up and pay in the deep end of the FA pool. AND... While I said these moves assume Correa stays with Mets. These moves make even MORE sense if something weird happens where Mets back out and the Twins can get Correa for something along the lines of the 10 years $285M they offered, although I would do something more like 8 for $250. (Higher AAV but less long-term risk). As these moves would clear $16M this year and $12-20M depending on options next year and replace with equal offensive output in Dom Smith & Duran). Dom's position wouldn't be the same, but bat for bat Smith would be an upgrade over Kepler, and allow one of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner to play the 3rd OF spot.
  23. I think it is only fair, after taking a step back, and letting things sink in a bit and let calmer heads prevail to review the Gallo singing after a 2 day "calming down" period. Thoughts on the signing after more deliberate thought process... Same as the original. Bad signing!! But may be not AS bad, and maybe not for all of the same reasons. First we have to ask ourselves... If Gallo singed for a 1 year $3M deal, would this signing look any different? I think a lot of people may even be applauding the signing. I hate to say it, but I may even give it some level of kudos at that price. If we are all honest, why should the money matter? we are not paying it. As long as that remaining $8M gap does not prevent the Twins from signing a player they otherwise would have been able to sign. what do we care? So given that context, I have to walk my original "HORRID" analysis, to.. "OK... Not bad". That evaluation though is based purely on a gamble on a potential decent player that you can either flip or try and resign at a reasonable price if it succeeds. (please no comments on he will leave just like Correa for bigger money elsewhere if he has a huge season. completely different scenarios, and he might, but who cares). When taking in a bigger picture, a roster/team building perspective, combine with historical decision making, I must once again downgrade to "Bad Signing" more so because it just doesn't make sense. I am not in the inner circle, so I do not know what the Grand Plan is. but it is just hard to see one. The only other decent FA out there that could command decent money is Eovaldi in my opinion. the $10M should not preclude the Twins from going after him with REALISTIC offers, not "Twin's Realistic". Wil we look into Eovaldi? not sure, Should we? Probably. But again Gallo's deal should not prevent this, and Gallo is not a pitcher, so lets look at how his signign fits the offense/defense. Yes he is/was a Gold Glover. mainly due to his big arm. and any big league player should be able to play either corner OF spot. My initial reaction tagged him as a RF, but yes he did play some left, and even if he didn't, he should be able to. SO assuming we keep everyone (not a given) he can play LF with Kepler in RF with Buck in CF. Gordon then I presume would be the primary 4th OF? If you were of the ilk that had the OF looking like Gordon, Buxton, Kepler. then this is an upgrade, as Gallo could be an upgrade over Gordon (assuming you are good with record setting K's). If you were of the ilk that would be either Larnach or Wallner in the third OF spot, then the move is still a potential upgrade, but a bit less so. (And again leave out the "but they are on rookie scale contracts!!" as we have already determined the money shouldn't prohibit Twins from signing any remaining FA). SO where is my "Bad" coming from? My overall sense of incompetence from the FO. Now remember you cannot directly control player performance. GAllo could be an MVP candidate, and some will say "SEE!!!", but just like in poker just because you win, doesn't mean you had the winning hand or made the right decisions. You call an All-in to put your stack at risk with a 1 outer and hit it on the river. You win, but that does not make it the right call. What do we lose by signing Gallo? We lose AB's from one or more of the following, Kirilloff, LArnach, Wallner. Each of which are aging prospects. Each of them may onyl be quality AAAA players, along the lnes of a Brent Rooker, but we owe it to our future to see if they can do anything when healthy. is Kirilloff's wrist ok? Or is he an injury wash? Can Larnach contribute over a full healthy season? Is he the hitter he was in May? or the hitter he was in June? Can Wallner replicate his minor league success at the big league level? Where he was a nearly .900 OPS hitter? We most likely cannot get these answers for all of them with Gallo on teh roster taking AB's. and where this comes into play from a team building perspective is we need these answers for future roster development. if 1 or 2 of these guys can be consistent quality MLB contributors, then that means we know we have them as part of our core for the next 4-5 years at cost controlled prices. This means we know #1 we do not have to fill that position in next years FA group, and #2 we now have that much more $ to spend in a fresh new FA class next year. And the cost per contribution gap, assuming one or more of these guys can contribute, would have us keep one of the 3 over paying Gallo. If Gallo has a career year, he may resign here as our "prized FA next year" but he may sign elsewhere. and GAllo could have had his career year with another team, still allowing us AB's for our prospects and we could sign him as FA next year. with a dearth of LH hitting OF, this move SCREAMS of additional moves to come. IS it trading Kepler? is it trading some of the prospects listed above? any follow up moves would be the key to this signing. And finally the "feel" of Gallo on this club, TWins fans have been utterly exasperated over the performance of Miguel Sano over the last few years. He coudl be on fire and carry a club single handedly for weeks, and then without notice suddenly hit .025 and strike out 65% of the time. DFA'ing Sano seemed like a change of philosophy, and then we go and sing Gallo who has significant Sano-like tendencies. Yes big power, and I am told when he is on he is ON!! but also K's at historic levels. All in all, Gallo will not be BAD, he will play a good OF, most likely hit a lot of HR, and K a lot. Also the $11M while an overpay is inconsequential as it does not preclude any other signings. the final judge if this signing will not in my opinion be the results Gallo puts up, but rather what other follow up moves are done by this FO. SO after being an initial "HORRID" to a "Still bad!", through the therapeutic process of writing this, I am going to go with a... "meh". If this was a move that leads to other moves that result in truly impactful move(s), then will change to a positive outlook, if we stand pat then this goes back to "bad", if the follow up moves involve trading for pitchers with KNOWN injuries such as Paddack, then goes back to "HORRID". Ultimately I am realizing, that based on past performance (of the FO not of the players)and decision making, that I just do not trust the FO to make any sort of competent moves. But maybe to test my own theory, in a future post I will look back at all of the signings/trades to grade the decisions. Are they incompetent as they seem? or are they just unlucky?
  24. Doc Munson

    Joey Gallo?

    as an addendum, this stat just scared the heck out of me when it comes to this FO trying to manage a team. Gallo is teh SEVENTH!!!!!! LH hitting OF on the 40 man roster!!! nto 7th LH TOTAL.... 7th OUTFIELDER!!!
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