Nick Nelson

Count me in as very intrigued by this series and eager for more installments! (Even though I already got to read the second. It's great!)

Talent-wise they are definitely in a much better place. Whether that translates to results remains to be seen. But on paper this rotation is night-and-day compared to last year at this time.

After making his final spring tune-up start on Sunday, Twins starter Sonny Gray was blunt in expressing his view on the 2022 rotation and its shortcomings. Lucky for him (and us), there's good reason to expect a big change in the season ahead. Image courtesy of Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports Over the weekend, we learned that Sonny Gray will not be the Twins' Opening Day starter – that honor will instead go to newcomer Pablo López on Thursday in Kansas City. Gray will, however, get the nod for the home opener a week later. There's little question he is viewed as the veteran leader on this starting staff, one year after establishing himself as its top performer. As such, Gray's comments following his final spring start on Sunday are noteworthy. After throwing three shutout innings against the Red Sox, the 33-year-old opened up on a bit of a vent session regarding last year's norm of shorter outings for Twins starters. “I don’t think we’re interested in going four innings and being happy,” Gray told reporters. “I feel like we had a group last year that was pretty content with going four innings, and [where] going four innings and five innings is considered a good start. I disagreed with that then, I disagree with that now.” Gray was channeling the frustrations a lot of fans felt with last year's team. And those frustrations are understandable, even if they were often misdirected. There's no doubt that Rocco Baldelli generally had a quick trigger with starters in 2022, more so than ever before. But it wasn't due to some sudden philosophical shift on his part. As I see it, this tendency owed to two different factors: The league in general has trended toward shorter outings for starters and more innings for specialized relief pitchers. The Twins had a particularly bad starting staff last year, with both Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy members of the rotation on Opening Day and all year long. The first part is what it is, and it's not likely to change in the age of high-powered, optimization-obsessive baseball pitching strategy. Baldelli might be more apt than some others to embrace the analytical logic of "times through the order" penalties and matchup-based advantages, but he's hardly some outlier egghead on this topic. It's the way of the game. Last year, eight MLB pitchers threw more than 200 innings and one (Sandy Alcantara) threw more than 210. Twenty years earlier (2002), those numbers were 42 and thirty. Gray himself is sort of a poster child for the modern MLB starting pitcher. While an accomplished multi-time All-Star, and a guy who's rightfully earned "borderline ace" designation, Gray has averaged 140 innings per season over the past seven years, and has never topped even 180 during that span. He hasn't thrown a complete game since 2017. That said, I don't think Gray's expectations for himself or others in the rotation are tethered to some outdated standard, even if some fans still long for the prototypical workhorse of yesteryear. He just wants starting pitchers around him who get the job done. Which brings us to my second point above: the Twins were just flat-out lacking in pitching talent last year. To some extent, they deserve a bit of grace on that part. Losing Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery and trading José Berríos at the deadline left them in an extremely tough spot with no easy answers. The front office signaled early on that they might get experimental in terms of pitcher usage as a way to navigate this challenge, so no one should've been all that surprised that they basically did just that. Ultimately there were some fatal flaws in the execution of this plan, but that doesn't mean it a was conceptually bad idea. And anyway, what needs to be emphasized here is that it was a matter of circumstance: the Twins were in a uniquely bad position with their short-term rotation depth. Fast-forward one year, and the makeup of this unit is very different. Gray now has had a full, normal spring – no lockout-trade combo disrupting his buildup routine – so hopefully that helps lead him to a healthier year and continued excellent performance on the mound. Joe Ryan is now fully established as a quality mid-rotation starter. On top of those two, you've got these additions to the mix: Tyler Mahle, who threw 180 innings in his last full season (2021), López, who threw 180 innings last season, and Maeda, who averaged 5.4 IP/start for the Twins before undergoing Tommy John surgery These are hurlers who you can expect to pitch into the sixth inning with regularity, if healthy. That was never a particularly reasonable expectation for the likes of Archer or Bundy. It's easy to read Gray's comment at a glance and say, "He's taking a shot at his manager and the way this staff was a run last year." In reality, I think what he's saying is, "It sure is nice to be surrounded by competent talent in the rotation now." While I'm sure he meant no specific offense to Archer with his comment, it's understandable how Gray might've been baffled (as we all were) watching the Twins go through an extensive orchestrated routine to get four mediocre innings out of the guy every fifth day. The situation this year will be a far cry from that, which is one of the main reasons fans should feel confident in a significantly better on-field product in 2023. View full article

This could very well be true but I found it enlightening at least because it gives me insight into the basis DSP and Twins officials are using when talk about payroll being "not commensurate with their revenues." And to be clear, I'm not arguing that the Twins are doing something special or noble here, by accepting an annual "operating loss" in the name of bettering the product. I'm saying it's what all teams should be doing. The Forbes data brings to light what we all know: most are not. And that's why I'm not inclined to brush it aside.

Wouldn't this be true of most owners/ownership groups? I know the Pohlads are on the wealthier end but they're all very rich and vested in multiple ventures.

Care to elaborate? I'm not saying these are completely accurate, and certainly not sticking up for Forbes as a publication in general here, but the methodology seems pretty sound to me and the numbers jibe more or less with what I'd expect. It's not like the overall report paints some extremely rosy or favorable analysis of anyone -- they show most owners pocketing a ton of revenue. I'm less interested in specifically what money the Twins "lost" and more interested in how they're operating compared to other teams.

To be clear, the Twins have not directly claimed they were "losing money" to my knowledge. This comes from an independent analysis showing they are losing money compared to other teams.

If new data from Forbes is to be believed, then yes. Image courtesy of Theo Tollefson We as fans don't get a lot of clear insight regarding the profits and losses of major-league franchises, even though team revenues are inherently tied to payroll spending. That's the nature of a business where all clubs (save Atlanta) are privately owned, their books shielded from the public eye. But each year, Forbes attempts to calculate and rank the value of all 30 teams, and the 2023 list just dropped. The methodology assesses "enterprise values (equity plus net debt) based on historical transactions and the future economics of the sport and each team." There's a whole lot more explanation and detail in the article if you're interested. The most striking finding, from the local standpoint, is that according to Forbes, the Twins lost $30.3 million last year. They had the fifth-highest losses of any team. At the end of last season, when asked about payroll expectations for 2023, Twins president Dave St. Peter raised some eyebrows with his response, which suggested the team had surpassed the standard for investing in the roster based on their revenues. "Our payroll has not been commensurate with our revenues for some time,” he said. “That’s a reality. Our payroll is well north of where revenues suggest it would be." This data from Forbes would appear to corroborate his statement, at least to some extent. By signing Carlos Correa and pushing payroll to a new height in the wake of two COVID-affected seasons, the Twins apparently took a sizable loss. Now they've pushed that payroll even higher here in 2023. Will it stop the "Cheap Pohlads" birds from chirping? Probably not. And to be clear, it's not like ownership is necessarily losing money here; so much of their ultimate profit from the franchise is derived from its ever-growing overall valuation (see below). But personally, as a fan, I can appreciate that the team is putting its money where its mouth is when it comes to investing in a better product and winning back the fans. Will it pay off? That remains to be seen. Some other noteworthy findings from the Forbes report: The Twins, worth $1.39 billion, rank as the 22nd-most valuable franchise in baseball. They didn't increase their valuation from last year. Carl Pohlad bought the team for $44 million back in 1984. The New York Mets took a reported operating loss of $138.5 million last year. Steve Cohen's a hell of a drug. According to Forbes and Nielsen data, the Twins had a pretty strong TV viewership at 47,000 households on average, but don't seem to getting a great deal on the rights fee. (Compare to markets like Detroit and Colorado below. View full article

Good Q. I still would've liked them to add one more piece but I've come around on the group they have after, A) seeing neutral projections and rankings that almost uniformly have them in the top 10, and B) seeing guys like Alcala and Moran throw as well as they have this spring. Basically, what it comes down to is Pagan. If he is bad and they committed $4M to him that could've gone to another reliever, they blew it. If he's as good as they think he can be, they'll look smart. That decision is what it is at this point.

Trepidations about the bullpen are natural, especially after some of last year's low points, but this unit actually performed quite well in the second half and shapes up as a sneaky strength for the Twins in 2023. Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports Projected Bullpen: Jhoan Durán, Jorge López, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jovani Morán, Jorge Alcalá, Jeff Hoffman Depth: Trevor Megill, Josh Winder, Danny Coulombe, Oliver Ortega, Randy Dobnak Prospects: Matt Canterino, Ronny Henriquez, Brent Headrick THE GOOD Most of the negative associations people have with last year's Twins bullpen are tied to the first half of the season, when it was legitimately very bad. Through the end of June, Minnesota relievers ranked dead-last in all of baseball with negative-0.3 fWAR. Only the heroics from Durán kept them in the middle of the pack (15th) for Win Probability Added. But from July 1st onward, the Twins ranked 8th out of 30 teams in fWAR (3.1) and if we cut that down to post-trade deadline, they were sixth. The only clubs ahead of them? Essentially all pitching powerhouses: Houston, Cleveland, Dodgers, Mets, Seattle. That second-half group what mostly carries over to the 2023 season. The front office bypassed significant bullpen additions during the offseason, and it's justifiable when you take a step back. They Twins have equipped themselves with a deep collection of trustworthy high-powered arms. It all starts, of course, with Durán. He's coming off one of the great rookie seasons in Twins history. He dominated opponents consistently in a role where extreme late-game leverage was routine. The big righty's fastball velocity set Twins records and his "offspeed" velocity set major-league records. So long as he is healthy and throwing the way he has, it's tough to envision a scenario where Durán is anything less than a top reliever in the game. That's a hell of a foundation for your bullpen. He also figures to have much better support in the eighth and ninth this year. López was not a factor in the bullpen's late improvement, as he struggled following a deadline trade, but the Twins are hoping he can take them to the next level in 2023. That's a plausible belief, based on his high-octane stuff and overall performance last season (2.54 ERA in 71 IP). He really feels like the pivot point in the outlook for the relief corps. The Twins bullpen can still be good if López is ordinary, like he was after the trade last year. But if he returns to something approximating his form shown in the first half with Baltimore, this unit can be absolutely elite. It might be a stretch to say López's turnaround is a luxury, but with Alcalá returning alongside Jax and Thielbar, there are several proven setup options on hand to share the load. Morán can easily join them at that level if he throws enough strikes. It'll be exciting to see him finally get a full-fledged opportunity in the majors. Outsiders and projections have the Twins pegged as a top 10 bullpen this year on the basis of these strengths. You don't often find relief aces as great as Durán, nor supporting casts as deep. THE BAD In both of the past two seasons, Minnesota had a very bad bullpen in the early months and a very good one thereafter. They've shown the ability to course-correct and make adjustments along the way, but decisions like signing Joe Smith and sticking too long with Tyler Duffey illustrate a troubling lack of judgment that has been costly. Granted, those two are gone. But the other reliever who must invariably be mentioned alongside them is not. The Twins remain apparently committed to seeing through their double-down bet on Pagán coming off a frustrating season full of crushing lapses. Pagán undeniably has the stuff to be a real asset, supplementing the team's cadre of high-end arms for the late innings, but execution has been a persistent shortcoming. His showings this spring haven't inspired confidence that is about to change. How long will Rocco Baldelli and the Twins stick with Pagán if April and May bring more of the same? For that matter, what does the leash look like for López if his post-trade command struggles endure? What if Alcalá experiences a tough curve in returning from the year off? Relief pitchers are volatile. Even the ones you think you can count on. Teams have got to be ready to react and adapt quickly, and they've got to have reinforcements at the ready. This points to the most striking area of concern with the bullpen: Minnesota's best prospects lined up to impact this unit are hurt. Canterino is out for the year, Winder has once again been limited by his shoulder this spring, and Henriquez has yet to pitch due to elbow soreness. THE BOTTOM LINE For the most part, this bullpen has everything you could want: elite talent at the back end, multiple overpowering lefties, potential setup-caliber arms in middle relief. What it lacks, at the moment, is relievers capable of providing substantial length – are we trusting any of the guys in the projected Opening Day mix to throw more than one inning regularly? – and readymade reinforcements for when things inevitably go awry. The good news, I guess, is that the front office has been fairly adept at working out the in-season kinks. Building the right group from the start has been their biggest issue, and without question, this bullpen mix is worlds better than those they brought into either of the past two seasons. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher View full article

Whoops, sorry about the typo 😅 Re; Dobnak. I get the sense that his only path back to the majors (at least this year) is as a length guy out of the bullpen.

His four-seamer was the single most valuable pitch on the staff last year! "Overpowering" isn't all about velocity.

The Twins are as deep in starting pitching as they've been in at least 15 years. Which is good, and necessary, because the top end of their depth chart is riddled with question marks. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, Nathan Ray Seebeck, Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports Projected Starters: Sonny Gray, Pablo López, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan Depth: Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Cole Sands, Chris Paddack, Aaron Sanchez Prospects: Marco Raya, Simeon Woods Richardson, Connor Prielipp, David Festa, Jordan Balazovic THE GOOD The Twins have at least five pitchers in their projected rotation who could realistically be viewed as top-of-rotation starters. Not aces, mind you, and maybe not even convincing number ones, but clearly a cut above the "mid-rotation" categorization. When's the last time we could say that? Never? Gray, who figures to get the nod on Opening Day, is an accomplished veteran with a 117 career ERA+, and four straight seasons of good performance. Mahle and Ryan are strikeout machines with overpowering fastballs and strong recent results. Maeda was the Cy Young runner-up in his last full season. (To the extent 2020 was a "full season," anyway.) You take that group, add López – a borderline No. 1/2 himself – and the level of established quality depth here is really something special. Being able to send out an above-average starter for every single game is not something most teams can do, but the Twins are aiming to make a habit of it this year. It would be a far cry from a 2022 campaign where Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer made one-third of their starts. For all of the top five Twins starters to hold up all season is wishful thinking, of course. That's true in any given year, but especially with a quintet carrying the number of injury concerns this one does. The front office recognized this and built sturdy depth with the addition of López, who pushes the very capable Ober into sixth starter status. I've got Varland listed as "Depth" at the top of this article even though he still qualifies as a prospect (No. 9 on our list) because he more or less feels like an established option, and is next in line after Ober. The reigning back-to-back Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year had a strong showing in five MLB starts last year, and has nothing left to prove on the farm. Varland's merely waiting his turn. Other pitching prospects like Woods Richardson, Festa, and Balazovic seem likely to factor in this year as well, with varying levels of promise. I compare the depth chart of this position to last year and it's night-and-day. THE BAD Durability concerns plague this rotation from top to bottom. Mahle might be their highest-upside starter, but he was derailed by a mysterious shoulder injury shortly after being acquired. It's ... hopefully better now? There's no real way to know. Gray has surpassed 140 innings only once in the past five years, and posted the second-lowest full-season total of his career (119.2 IP) last year. Maeda is coming off Tommy John surgery, hasn't pitched since August of 2021, and turns 35 next month. (He has also looked pretty rough this spring.) López was healthy last year, but was bogged down by a shoulder injury in 2021. Ober was limited to 56 innings last year by a groin injury, and has struggled to stay healthy throughout his pro career. The only starter in the Twins mix with no significant known injury risk is Ryan, who was a rookie last year. The rotation is destined to experience some level of attrition. The question is: how much? The Twins have set themselves up to afford a certain degree of it, but if a few serious issues or setbacks emerge, they'll quickly find themselves stretched thin. That's hardly a unique situation, but few teams are riddled with as many questions marks in the starting five. THE BOTTOM LINE While it weakened the team's outlook at first base and designated hitter, the Arraez trade significantly bolstered the rotation depth, and one can make a pretty easy argument that matters more for the Twins in their current state. López adds a crucial veteran layer to hedge against injury while also raising the unit's ceiling via his front-end upside. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field Position Analysis: Designated Hitter View full article

They already used Wallner's option for this year when they sent him down so that's not an issue anymore. He can go back and forth all season.

The Twins don't seem to have anything approximating a primary designated hitter on their roster. That is very much by design. Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Projected Starter: Trevor Larnach Likely Backup: Donovan Solano Depth: Nick Gordon, José Miranda, Byron Buxton Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato THE GOOD As the Twins' roster began to crystallize in late January, I presented a question with no obvious answer: who starts on Opening Day at DH? Granted, that's only one game, but the decision hints at a larger question about Rocco Baldelli's generally preferred option versus right-handed pitchers in the absence of Luis Arraez. The best answer I could come up with at the time was Larnach (if on the roster). He was a proven major-league bat and 26-year-old with no path to starting at any position on the field. He still kind of seems like the top candidate, thus his tentative listing as the projected "starter," but much has changed since then. For one thing, Alex Kirilloff's status for the start of the season has grown more uncertain, if not doubtful. No Kirilloff at first base probably means Joey Gallo is spending a lot of time there against righties. That could open left field for Larnach, although he's still got to vie with Gordon and Michael A. Taylor. The other development is Solano's signing at the outset of spring training. He's a 35-year-old known for his bat, and he mostly split time between first base and DH last year. Donnie Barrels is a natural fit for the job, and it wouldn't surprise me if he was the closest thing to a regular, should things go swimmingly elsewhere on the roster. To some extent, talking about best fits and ideal options for the Twins at DH feels pointless. The reality is that the starter in the lineup will be dictated by the day and its circumstances. With the club signaling a very conservative and measured approach under new head trainer Nick Paparesta, it stands to reason we'll see plenty of Buxton, Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco at designated hitter, even if if they're relatively healthy. Miranda might have been in line for a large share of starts here before spring shoulder issues set back his throwing. Ironically, the healthier the Twins roster is, the MORE I would expect to see veteran mainstays appearing at DH. The front office didn't trade for Kyle Farmer and Taylor – both everyday players over the past couple years – to have them sit on the bench. Baldelli would be thrilled to take advantage of the DH spot by getting his best players off their feet routinely while keeping the top of his lineup intact and his defense sound. That's Plan A. We've learned better than to count on Plan A. Once the Twins start inevitably delving into their depth, we start to see the potential downside at this position. THE BAD The bar for offense at designated hitter is high, as you might expect given the title. Placing a mediocre bat there is an easy path to competitive disadvantage. That was never much of a concern when the Twins were trotting out Arraez or Nelson Cruz regularly, and it won't be a concern if they're rotating their best hitters most days as a matter of maintenance. If those guys are unavailable, or playing in the field? Suddenly we're short on clear-cut premium bats. None of Solano, Larnach or Gordon are safe bets to be above-average hitters, much less Taylor or Farmer. That said, the balance of this bench does offer plenty of opportunity for platooning and optimization. THE BOTTOM LINE In 2022, the first post-Cruz season, Minnesota saw 10 different players make starts at designated hitter, and no one made more than 34. I would expect a similar distribution this year. If there's a dark horse candidate to lead the team in DH starts, it's Julien. His bat is way ahead of his glove at this point, but will be difficult to keep down in Triple-A should he keep raking the way he has at every single stop lately. The lurking presence of Julien, along with a current stable of rotating quality bats that can provide a platoon advantage almost daily, should ensure DH is at least a moderate strength for the Twins. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field View full article

We're approaching the 10-day countdown to the season opener and things are not trending well in a variety of critical areas. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Let's start with the good news: Byron Buxton seems to be healthy and on track for the start of the season. Even though he has yet to play in a major-league spring training game, the club's conservative approach to ramping him up seems like it's going according to plan. He's getting enough action on the side fields and in minor-league games to sharpen his skills and find his timing, while the Twins are mostly keeping his workload light until the meaningful action begins. So that's good. Elsewhere, the recent news has been less encouraging. We'll start with Jorge Polanco, who's been handled in a similar fashion to Buxton this spring despite much vaguer circumstances. We know Buxton was bothered by a knee issue throughout the 2022 season, and underwent surgery to address it in the offseason. Even beyond that, it makes sense to limit exposure for a player who so frequently gets hurt while on the field, and who doesn't seem to need much traditional preparation to find his groove. Polanco, on the other hand, is a much more perplexing situation. We know he suffered a knee injury last August and that it was deemed relatively minor at the time. He repeatedly tried to return to the field but couldn't make it back before the end of the campaign. Polanco reportedly spent much of his offseason rehabbing the knee, but there's never been a sense this spring that he was physically right. Unfortunately, that's now been confirmed. On Sunday, Derek Falvey finally acknowledged to reporters that Polanco is doubtful for Opening Day. "He hasn’t been able to do all the leg activities and all the legwork and all the running and all the strength and conditioning stuff that everybody would at this stage, so some of it’s just responding to where he is from a timing standpoint," Falvey said. "Obviously, the calendar plays a role now as we get closer and closer to Opening Day." While it's entirely possible the Twins were trying to do the right thing all along here – they might have genuinely thought Polanco was in a decent place at the start of camp, and that a slow ramp-up would get him to where he needed to be – and it simply hasn't played out as hoped. But with the way things went last year, this is definitely a foreboding development that will make it difficult for fans to trust what they're hearing from the team when it comes to updating on their myriad health concerns. Polanco is among three of the four projected starting infielders for the Twins this year who've yet to play an official spring inning at their position. José Miranda has been limited by shoulder soreness which has prevented him from getting much-needed reps at third base, although he does seem (hopefully) close to turning a corner. Meanwhile Alex Kirilloff's status remains in doubt as he works back from a second wrist surgery. Just days earlier, Falvey had characterized Kirilloff as – between Buxton, Polanco, and himself – "probably the one that’s a little bit behind our schedule." Now he's flip-flopped the latter two. From the current view, it's difficult to read this as anything other than: we should not expect AK or Polo to be ready for the start of the season. On the bright side, Kirilloff did seem to take an important step forward this past week. In a minor-league game on Saturday, he played four innings defensively at first base, and went 0-for-2 at the plate. Getting action in a real game, even on the minors side, is a key milestone for the 25-year-old and theoretically gives him at least a shot at being ready for Opening Day. I wouldn't bet on it though. Ironically, Kirilloff was involved with another injury scare on Sunday. While facing Jhoan Durán, he smashed a line drive back up the middle that hit the top reliever in the leg. Ted Schwerzler, observing the action in Fort Myers, tweeted that Durán was "walking gingerly" before departing the field on his own power and riding a golf cart back to the complex. Hopefully nothing to worry about. These things happen, and typically don't amount to much more than a bruise. (That thankfully appears to be the case here.) But for Kirilloff, of all people, to accidentally peg Durán, whose ability to stay healthy for all of 2022 was one of the season's most pleasant surprises, is a cosmic twist of cruel irony. Speaking of which, the injury news didn't stop there on Sunday (bloody Sunday). Max Kepler exited the Twins' exhibition game against Atlanta with "left hip tightness." If that sounds familiar, the outfielder also dealt with hip issues during an injury-riddled conclusion to last year. Very possibly this is all much ado about nothing (or little). Opening Day is still a week-and-a-half away, and it would be drastic to assume the worst with any of these developing scenarios, let alone more unsubstantiated anxieties like Tyler Mahle's velocity or Kenta Maeda's spring results. At the same time, can Twins fans be blamed for doing just that? More good news would be eagerly welcomed. View full article

I presume they would exercise the option and try to trade him again. (Assuming other corner OF options don't flame out.) Probably with a much more receptive market.

Defying expectations, Max Kepler is back. It appears he'll be Minnesota's Opening Day starter in right field for a seventh consecutive season. Will this be his Target Field swan song, or his triumphant reawakening? Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports Projected Starter: Max Kepler Likely Backup: Joey Gallo Depth: Michael A. Taylor, Trevor Larnach, Kyle Garlick Prospects: Matt Wallner, Jose Rodriguez, Kala'i Rosario THE GOOD Even during a 2022 season that rated as the worst of his career, and had him somberly reflecting on whether he picked the right sport, Kepler's underlying skill and baseball prowess were easy to see. As usual, he roamed right field with excellence, ranging all over to track down fly balls and line drives most peers cannot reach. The standard for RF, at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum, gives Kepler a big advantage as a stellar athlete with a glove that could play in center. He ranked fifth among MLB right fielders in Defensive Runs Saved with 10, and was in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average. FanGraphs pegged him as the second-most valuable defender at the position, behind Arizona's Daulton Varsho. Kepler's fielding is verifiably elite. His bat has of course been a different story, but you wouldn't know it from looking at the raw batted ball metrics. Kepler's Statcast sliders are a sea of red, indicating high-end rankings on measurements like exit velocity, expected batting average, chase rate, and beyond. Kepler has a very good plate approach and he routinely makes quality contact. Yet, this all manifested last year in a .227/.318/.348 slash line, which – even in a depressed offensive environment – compared quite poorly against the average AL right fielder (244/.310/.407). Analysis shows that to a large degree, Kepler creates his own bad luck with a hitting profile so predictable that opposing pitchers and defenses have learned to expertly suppress it. That said, last year his level of bad luck was off the charts. The outfielder's fortunes seem naturally likely to rebound, and the new shift limitations figure to further aid his improvement. This dynamic gave the Twins hope that another team might fancy Kepler as a buy-low candidate worth ponying up for. Alas, they didn't get an offer that moved them, so the front office held on, and will hope to cash in on their own bounce-back threat, whose return alongside the Gallo signing creates an abundant level of corner outfield depth. Taking Kepler's history here out of the equation, I think that if the Twins were to trade for a player sharing Kepler's attributes – an underperforming great athlete in his prime with one more year under contract followed by team options – most fans would see it as a smart gamble. THE BAD Among the top five players we have listed on the RF depth chart atop this article, here are their final OPS+ figures from the 2022 season: Kepler: 93 Gallo: 79 Taylor: 90 Larnach: 104 Garlick: 104 Only two modestly above-average hitters in the bunch, and they both missed most of the season due to injury. As helpful as Kepler's glove is in the outfield, his lack of offense has made him a limiting factor in the lineup. The same could potentially be true of Gallo or Taylor if they're pushed into duty. With so many questions elsewhere, the Twins could really use a steady and reliable producer at this bat-driven position. Since Kepler's career year in 2019, the Twins have been below-average in wOBA from right fielders every year, ranking 23rd in both of the past two. If Kepler can't snap that trend, the team is now in a realistic position to move on. If and when that time comes, Gallo or Taylor or Larnach might not be next in line. Wallner is their reigning Minor League Player of the Year and he got a taste of the majors last September. With decent outfield range and maybe the best arm in the system, Wallner is built for right field. Bringing lots of strikeouts and lots of power, the organization's No. 11 prospect contrasts sharply from Kepler stylistically, but it's not hard to envision him offering equal value (at a small fraction of the cost) as soon as this year. That is: if Wallner can break the mold of K-prone sluggers who mash in the minors but struggle to break through in the majors. The 25-year-old's development this season will have a decisive influence on the plan for this position going forward. THE BOTTOM LINE A changing of the guard is afoot in right field for the Twins. Kepler is one of their longest-tenured players, but the nearing end of this player-team relationship feels apparent from a number of different perspectives. He's entering his final guaranteed year under contract, was openly the subject of trade rumors all winter, and is now being pressed by several up-and-coming prospects as his game stagnates. For the time being, Kepler's still here. Though down and out, he's a skilled and athletic player coming off the unluckiest season of his career, with a few things due to finally break in his favor. If he doesn't turn it around, the Twins have a wealth of other current and future options. If he does, it could introduce create an interesting set of decisions for the front office. For as long as he's been around, Kepler is still only 30 and he has a 2024 team option for $10 million. Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field View full article