Nick Nelson

The Minnesota Twins are officially making their push in the American League Central. By winning five out of seven, despite missing two of their best players, the Twins moved within two games of Cleveland for the division lead with six weeks to go. Now the race is really on. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/12 through Sun, 8/18 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 70-54) Run Differential Last Week: +16 (Overall: +70) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (2.0 GB) Game 118 | MIN 8, KC 3: Early Homers from Castro, Lewis Build Big Lead Game 119 | MIN 13, KC 3: Twins Rout Royals in Zebby's MLB Debut Game 120 | KC 4, MIN 1: Bats Go Silent Against Ragans, Relievers Game 121 | MIN 3, TEX 2: Ober Delivers Again, Beats Rangers in Opener Game 122 | MIN 4, TEX 3: Santana's Key Homer Fuels Another Close Win Game 123 | MIN 5, TEX 2: Pitching Leads the Way Again in Series Clincher Game 124 | TEX 6, MIN 5: Nightmare Inning from Alcala Costs Win, Sweep IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES After homering twice the previous day against Cleveland, Byron Buxton exited Monday's series opener against Kansas City following his third at-bat, complaining of hip soreness. An ensuing MRI thankfully revealed no structural damage, but the pain persisted for Buxton, who still wasn't game-ready when the Twins embarked on their road trip to Texas, necessitating an IL move. Edouard Julien returned to the big-league roster in his stead. Buxton's injury is officially being deemed inflammation, but I wouldn't assume he'll be back after the minimum 10 days. This hip has been problematic in the past. As with Carlos Correa – who himself remains sidelined with no clear return date in sight – the Twins need to make sure this thing heals as well as it can. They can't afford to push Buxton back too quickly, even though being without your star shortstop and center fielder is obviously a major blow in the short term. As expected, Zebby Matthews was called up from Triple-A to make his major-league debut on Tuesday against the Royals, picking up a win. Scott Blewett was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. (Blewett was outrighted, elected free agency, and then re-signed with the Saints.) Louie Varland was called up for a start the following day, then optioned afterward. Josh Winder was sent down to make room for Varland, and Ronny Henriquez was recalled to replace him. Finally, the Twins activated Steven Okert from the bereavement list on Monday, shuttling Randy Dobnak back down to the minors. HIGHLIGHTS We usually mention them near the end of the Highlights section, because the bullpen tends to be such an afterthought relative to the rotation and lineup, but this week, Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax deserve head billing. These two relievers really are near the top of the list in terms of reasons for believing in this team, and its potential to make a legitimate run. Durán pitched on three straight days for the first time all season, and he handled it well, allowing one (meaningless) run over three innings, while picking up one-run saves on Thursday and Friday against the Rangers. He took the loss on Sunday's game but by no fault of his own: Entering in the 10th with a runner starting on second, Durán got a strikeout and then a weak grounder to third, which the infield managed to bungle into a game-losing defensive flub. For the week, Durán struck out six with no walks allowed in 3 ⅓ innings. He has posted an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio over his past 14 appearances; he was at 12-to-5 in his previous 14. Durán's velocity still isn't back to where it was in the past, and maybe it never will be, but he does look healthy and he's still plenty effective. Jax made four appearances over the course of the week, each time facing the top or middle of the opposing lineup with the game tied or the Twins narrowly leading. Each time he held the opposition scoreless. That's been the consistent story for him this month; the Twins are 7-1 in games where he has appeared in August, in no small part because of his contributions. Jax and Durán were instrumental last October to Minnesota's first postseason advancement in almost two decades, and they will be crucial to any such aspirations this year. You just hope they're not going to wear down from overuse, which is the one note of caution about this past week: Durán has pitched four times in five days and Jax was used three times in the four-game Rangers series. The Twins rotation, now relying on a pair of rookies alongside the established trio of Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson, continues to get the job done despite its setbacks. Matthews was very impressive in his debut on Tuesday, tossing five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts and no walks. David Festa put up a very similar line in Texas on Saturday: 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K. 0 BB. If the two 24-year-olds can keep throwing like this, the Twins are gonna be in fine shape. Down two of their best bats, the Twins have needed help from wherever they can get it in the lineup. Veteran Carlos Santana is answering the call to the utmost, and he delivered in a big way once again this past week. Although he was only 4-for-22 in seven games, three of the hits were home runs and Santana made them count: a solo shot to (briefly) draw the Twins within one in Wednesday's loss, a decisive three-run go-ahead homer in Friday's win, and a game-tying blast in the ninth inning of Sunday's loss. Santana also drew seven walks against four strikeouts while continuing to play spectacular, game-changing defense at first. Some other noteworthy performances in a solid week for the Twins offense: Royce Lewis notched at least one hit in all six of his starts, three of which came at third base and the other three at DH as he maintains a pretty even split. Lewis doubled, homered, and drove in three. José Miranda broke out of his post-break slump with two doubles, a triple and a homer among his six hits. His three-hit outburst on Tuesday helped fuel a blowout victory over Kansas City. Ryan Jeffers launched a pair of homers in Texas over the weekend, and drove in three runs on Sunday – his first multi-RBI game since July 4th. Kyle Farmer is starting to hit the ball with some authority, suggesting that maybe a little time on the sidelines to rest up his ailing shoulder did him some good. His 4-for-15 week included a home run and a triple, which turned into an inside-the-park homer. LOWLIGHTS With both Correa and Buxton sidelined, and Alex Kirilloff seemingly out of the picture, the Twins could really use the infusion that Julien's bat would bring to their lineup if he could even remotely approximate the player he was last year. But it's just not there. Julien struck out five times in his seven plate appearances, looking rough enough at the plate on Friday and Saturday that Rocco Baldelli opted for Farmer at second base against a right-hander on Sunday. Coming into the season, second base looked like such a deep, formidable position on the Twins roster. But with Julien unable to find himself, Brooks Lee injured, and Willi Castro needed at short in Correa's absence, the position's quality depth has been decimated. Center field is another spot where the Twins are thinned out and feeling the impact. Here too, Castro's ability to contribute is limited due to being regularly needed at shortstop. That leaves the underwhelming duo of Manuel Margot and Austin Martin to split duties in center. They're doing their best. It should be noted that the Twins were initially hesitant to use Margot in center at all – he didn't make his first start there until a week into May – and Martin is of course a rookie, who primarily played infield while coming up. They've looked expectedly rough defensively, especially in contrast to Buxton's brilliance. And while the past week was a relatively good one for the duo at the plate – Martin and Margot combined for 10 knocks in 35 at-bats (.288 AVG) – it was characteristic in that nine of the 10 hits were singles, and the pair totaled just one walk. While it was a very good week for the Twins overall, they unfortunately fumbled away a chance to make it a great one by blowing a late four-run lead on Sunday, letting a series sweep in Texas slip away. Jorge Alcala came in for the seventh, up 4-0, and got absolutely clobbered. Rangers hitters were all over him. He surrendered five earned runs on five hits, including two home runs, while recording only two outs. Alcala's ERA still sits at 3.09 even after the disastrous outing, speaking to how effective he's been generally, but Baldelli's decision to use him in that spot is worthy of scrutiny. Alcala's track record for durability is precarious, and he'd pitched the previous day, as well as throwing 20 pitches on Thursday. Meanwhile, Trevor Richards was fresh as could be, four days removed from his last appearance. Baldelli still didn't trust him with a four-run lead, turning to Richards only after the Twins were trailing. That's about as much of an indictment of the team's lone trade deadline acquisition as one could imagine. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins are 11-6 in August and they've shaved 4 ½ games off Cleveland's division lead this month. That they've been able to do it without Correa and largely without Buxton makes this feat all the more impressive. But there's no question that the Twins are going to need their best players back in order to maintain momentum and finish the job with a challenging schedule still ahead. In the coming week, I'll be looking for positive signs on both fronts. Buxton will be eligible to return from his 10-day IL stint when Friday's home stand opens against the Cardinals. Will he be activated and back in the lineup? If not, the implications may be troubling. And what of Correa? Will he finally embark on a rehab assignment, signaling that his own return to the lineup is in sight? Or will this be another week of stagnating progress for the shortstop? Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported over the weekend that, per head trainer Nick Paparesta, Correa "needs to be comfortable running daily without feeling sore the next day" but has yet to reach that point. It's a disturbing state of limbo right now. LOOKING AHEAD A week of interleague competition lies ahead, with the Twins heading to San Diego for a three-game set before returning home to face the Cardinals. Following their matchup against Tyler Mahle on Sunday, the Twins have a couple more old friends on the docket in the coming week, with Martín Pérez scheduled to pitch for the Padres and Sonny Gray for the Cardinals. That pairing on Saturday is especially intriguing: Minnesota's Game 1 starter from last year's playoffs versus their Game 2 starter. MONDAY, AUG 19: TWINS @ PADRES – RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Michael King TUESDAY, AUG 20: TWINS @ PADRES – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Martin Perez WEDNESDAY, AUG 21: TWINS @ PADRES – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Matt Waldron FRIDAY, AUG 23: CARDINALS @ TWINS – RHP Andre Pallante v. RHP David Festa SATURDAY AUG 24: CARDINALS @ TWINS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Pablo Lopez SUNDAY, AUG 25: CARDINALS @ TWINS – RHP Erick Fedde v. RHP Zebby Matthews View full article

Now that's the kind of optimism I need!

Will Chris Paddack pitch for the Minnesota Twins again this year? As each week passes with a lack of tangible progress, it grows less likely. Now we have to wonder about what next year holds, since the righty's contract currently positions him as one of the team's five highest-paid players for 2025. Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports When Chris Paddack went back onto the injured list after returning from a bout with arm fatigue and making two starts ahead of the All-Star break, the Twins publicly expressed minimal concern. "It doesn't seem like anything major, to be honest," said manager Rocco Baldelli of Paddack feeling tightness while throwing over the break. "His elbow seems fine, the ligament seems fine, everything seems fine. It's some sort of muscle strain and should heal up." In retrospect, much like the team's initial reactions to the Carlos Correa, Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton injuries, this one now looks like wishful thinking. One month later, Paddack has made no real progress toward returning, and it doesn't sound like he's close. In his latest article at The Athletic, Dan Hayes runs through a litany of injury updates, including some news regarding Paddack. Hayes shares that, per head trainer Nick Paparesta, the right-hander "won’t go full throttle until he has a second MRI on Aug. 27 and is cleared by Dr. Keith Meister." "Once that's cleared up, we'll get him moving a bit quicker," Paparesta added. Which sounds fine in theory except that by that point, the end of the season is only a month away, and he won't have pitched for six weeks. Getting Paddack up to speed for even a relief role leading into the playoffs, similar to last year, feels like a bit of a pipe dream at this stage. There's been no word of a setback, but it's hard to believe something hasn't gone amiss. Eight days ago, on August 9th, it was reported that Paddack was "tracking really well," in the words of Derek Falvey, who added that the pitcher could be cleared to start a throwing program "really soon." Evidently, that's off the table. It's probably best to stop thinking about Paddack as a factor for the rest of this season and wondering about what next year holds. By virtue of the three-year contract extension he signed in January of 2023, he'll make $7.5 million guaranteed next season – only Correa, Pablo López, Buxton and Christian Vázquez are slated to earn more. That commitment wouldn't be a huge deal under normal circumstances, but with the ownership-mandated payroll crunch being faced by the front office, Paddack's salary looms large in their planning. Personally, I'm more interested in what that MRI scheduled for August 27th tells us about his outlook for next year than the rest of this year. What are your thoughts? Will Paddack pitch again for the Twins this season? What's your confidence level in him looking ahead to 2025? Sound off in the comments. View full article

At 44, the well traveled left-hander is ramping up to join a contender for a late-season push. The Twins have history with Rich Hill, and a very clear need in the rotation, so it's no surprise they are rumored to be among his suitors. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports In so many ways, 2020 feels like a lifetime ago. Those memories have become distant: The explosion of the COVID-19 pandemic, the delayed start to an abbreviated MLB season, the strange dynamics of playing a limited regional schedule in empty ballparks. Generally speaking, it's a period most of us would like to forget. But one fun element of that Twins season was the presence of Rich Hill, a veteran left-hander who was joining his eighth team at age 40, looking to reinforce a team coming off a 100-win season with championship aspirations. Even then, Hill needed to be managed carefully, struggling to stay healthy and throwing only 38 innings as a Twin. Still, he was useful, posting a 3.03 ERA for the repeat division winners. It was a good show, watching him craftily navigate big-league lineups with an upper-80s fastball thanks to command, grit, and his trademark curve. Hill would grunt with effort and shout with competitive emotion on the mound. He was valued in the clubhouse and liked by his teammates. These qualities have helped Hill stick around for three more seasons since, accumulating 430 innings from 2021 through 2023 for the Rays, Mets, Red Sox, Padres and Pirates. He's been a mercenary, rotating through different pitching staffs at a dizzying pace. Now, Hill is looking for one last job, and he wants to make it count. Could a return to the Twins be the perfect fit for both sides? Hill signaled to teams ahead of the season that he intended to sit out the first half. As Steve Adams explains at MLB Trade Rumors: The time has come. Hill hosted a showcase for scouts last week, in hopes of demonstrating his readiness. Afterward, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweeted that the Twins "are in contact" with Hill and his representatives. It's a logical inquiry given not only Minnesota's history with the veteran, but also their increasingly dire need for starting pitching depth. Joe Ryan is likely out for the season after suffering a muscle strain in his shoulder. Chris Paddack remains sidelined indefinitely, and seems tough to count on going forward as a rotation member. The Twins currently find themselves depending on an exorbitant number of rookies and young arms, starting Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews and Louie Varland in the span of five crucial games against division rivals. Relying on a rotation with little collective experience in crunch time is a perilous thing, and the situation is even more dicey when you consider the ramifications of even one more injury to a starter. As a byproduct of their inactivity at the trade deadline, the Twins have as great a need for a pitcher like Hill as any contender in the league. And they are a bona fide contender, meaning Minnesota fits Hill's chief criterion. He wants to throw meaningful innings during what may be his last hurrah. He'd certainly have that opportunity for a Twins team that is in the thick of a tight, three-team division race, currently possessing the second Wild Card spot in the American League. So, should the Twins make a push for Hill? I can't see why not. It's important to keep expectations in check – we're talking about a 44-year-old who, even back in 2020, was far from dominant. Since then, he has a 4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP. Last year, he was downright bad, posting an 81 ERA+ with his worst WHIP in over a decade. But it bears noting that Hill was vastly better in the first half (4.45 ERA in 16 starts through June) than the second (6.91 ERA in 16 starts after June), as fatigue evidently set in. The first number might not wow you, but it'd be just fine for the Twins' needs, especially since Hill completed five or more innings in 14 of those 16 first-half starts. Theoretically, 10 months of downtime and a four- or five-week season could help Hill maximize whatever he's got left. If he can give the Twins even a handful of starts at something approximating league-average effectiveness, it'd go a long way toward relieving the burden on Minnesota's rookie starters and beleaguered bullpen. I say: why the heck not? What are your thoughts: Should the Twins get aggressive in their pursuit of the grizzled veteran lefty? Or would you prefer to stick with the in-house options? View full article

When the Twins hired Derek Falvey to lead their baseball operations, the decision was influenced by a belief that he could turn around their wayward pitching development engine, based on his reputed impact as part of Cleveland's front office. Eight years in, it's time for the rubber to meet the road. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Over the weekend, we learned that Joe Ryan is likely out for the year with a muscle strain. Chris Paddack remains sidelined, with some optimism but no clear timeline in place for his return. Because the Twins made no rotation additions at the deadline, they are left to rely on internal rotation depth to get through the rest of the season and into the playoffs. That means rookies needing to step up, with David Festa leading the charge. The 24-year-old right-hander epitomizes what Falvey and his group have sought to accomplish on the pitching front: targeting a particular type of overlooked collegiate pitcher in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft, and applying their magic to dramatically upgrade his velocity and stuff in the pros. Back when he was selected in the 13th round out of Seton Hall in 2021, the pre-draft book on Festa (per Baseball America) was that some scouts wondered "whether his frame is too narrow to project much more physically from him." The Twins believed in his lanky frame, and were rewarded, as Festa has added substantial velocity and turned himself into a whiff machine with a dominant changeup. Festa ranks as the Twins' fourth-best prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and 85th in all of baseball. This is precisely the kind of manufactured top-end pitching talent that Falvey was brought in to produce, and Festa is accompanied by a handful of other budding success stories within a system that Baseball America recently ranked as the third-best in the league. The Twins system's biggest success story of this year, per BA, is not Festa, but Zebby Matthews, who will make his major-league debut on Tuesday night against the Royals. It's a pressure-cooker spot for a 24-year-old who hadn't pitched above Single-A entering this year. Similar to Festa, the Twins grabbed Matthews later in the draft (eighth round in 2022) and built on the foundation of his existing strengths – namely, elite control and an excellent slider – while helping dial up his velo. As a result, Matthews has flown through the minors, and he now stands at the doorstep of the majors, with tantalizing upside thanks to swing-and-miss stuff that peppers the zone. Most pitchers don't succeed right away in the big leagues – even those who end up being very good. That is the troubling reality that Minnesota is working against as they turn to these untested arms in a high-stakes moment: an outcome of failing to add meaningfully during the offseason or at the trade deadline. This is a "ready-or-not" assignment for the likes of Festa and Matthews, who collectively have pitched fewer than 80 innings at Triple-A. Hopefully, they prove ready. Get used to it, because leaning on inexperienced youth is set to become a theme for the Twins going forward, as they try to piece together pitching rotations while operating under a crunched budget. So long as the "right-size" payroll limitations remain in place, the front office will be hard-pressed to spend much at all on new acquisitions; as we know, even moderately reliable starting pitchers come at a high price in free agency. In other words, get ready for plenty more reliance on the Falvey pitching pipeline, which will play an outsized role in dictating the success of the Minnesota Twins for years to come. It starts with Festa and Matthews, but there's plenty more to like in a system that also includes Charlee Soto, Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper and more. Whether it's enough is a separate question, though, and a different one every year. What's your level of faith in Falvey's pitching pipeline to produce and carry the requisite load for the Twins? Are these young arms up to the task? View full article

The outfielder is having a good season, but not a great one, and his production doesn't stand out in the way you'd expect from a hitter who is consistently being used in the most crucial lineup spots. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Following a series of tough, injury-plagued seasons, Trevor Larnach's emergence this year has been among the brightest storylines for the 2024 Twins. Finally healthy enough to stay on the field, Larnach is on track to set new career highs for games played and plate appearances by the end of this month. He's delivered some clutch knocks and some prodigious, highlight-reel drives. Without question, Larnach has been an essential fixture in the lineup. Still, it does seem a little odd how preferential Rocco Baldelli has been toward Larnach in terms of lineup spots. The lefty slugger has made 47 starts in either the No. 2 or No. 3 spot in the lineup this year, which is more than any other Twins player save for Carlos Correa (52). Larnach hasn't made a start outside of a top-three spot in the order since May 5. This means he is regularly batting in front of guys like Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton and José Miranda, who have outperformed him by significant margins. Larnach has been good. He hasn't been great. His .740 OPS is above-average, but not by much. Despite his ability to make high-quality contact and produce impressive exit velocities, he hasn't really hit for that much power, ranking sixth among Twins hitters in slugging percentage at .420 with zero extra-base hits in his past 10 games. Now, I'm not one to make a big deal out of lineup construction, which is generally overblown in terms of actual run-scoring impact. But the usage of Larnach is interesting, and Baldelli's commitment to keeping him near the very top of the lineup has implications, which were exemplified at the end of Sunday's game. Down two runs in the ninth, the bottom part of the Twins' lineup managed to load the bases with no outs against Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase. Willi Castro struck out, and so up came Larnach, who grounded into a game-ending double play while Lewis stood in the on-deck circle. Look: I don't hate having Larnach up in that spot, and he put a fairly good swing up against Clase, but the next three players in the batting order behind him – Lewis, Wallner, Buxton – all have an OPS at least 100 points higher than his. Baldelli's batting lineups are prioritizing plate appearances for a good hitter in a lineup of great ones. He's surely aware of that. In trying to understand this treatment – especially given what I know about Rocco's approach to managing – three possible explanations come to mind. I would guess that all three are playing a role in his continued steadfast adherence to this tendency. Larnach is a better hitter than the statistics show. The past is the past. When planning for the future, it's not about what someone's done; it's about what they're going to do. Just because other Twins players have outhit Larnach up to this point, that doesn't mean they will going forward. Baldelli may believe that Larnach's most productive days are still ahead this season, and that's a well-founded belief. The outfielder's Statcast metrics are impressive, reflecting above-average measurables that border on elite in many areas. Of particular note: his xwOBA (.357) is in the 86th percentile among MLB players, and 33 points higher than his wOBA (.324). Even in a Statcast-slider-measuring contest, Larnach can't quite compete with the likes of Wallner or Lewis, but their performance gap is smaller through the lens of expected outcomes. That helps explain why Baldelli might be okay with the extra ABs Larnach stands to get, especially when you factor in the following: Larnach brings a more prototypical stylistic presence to the top of the lineup. Wallner, Lewis and Buxton are very good hitters, but all are punishing sluggers who go up there looking for pitches to destroy. That might also be true of Larnach, but to a lesser extent. He's developed into a guy who consistently puts forth pretty disciplined, competitive at-bats that result in solid contact. This wasn't always the case; in fact, it's been one of the coolest wrinkles of his improvement this season. Larnach carried a 34% career K-rate into this season but has struck out only 20% of the time in 2024. He doesn't have a super-high walk rate, but he does work counts. He's seeing 3.96 pitches per plate appearance on average, which is second on the team behind the legendarily patient Carlos Santana. And again, this is on a team that mostly trends in the opposite direction: Minnesota hitters are seeing the seventh-fewest pitches per PA in baseball overall. I can see why Rocco would like to have a guy sitting in front of the mistake-hunting big boppers who is likely to see some pitches and get the opposing pitcher sweating. Then there is also the matter of making opposing managers sweat, which we know to be a Baldelli specialty. Larnach's lefty bat plays into Baldelli's sequencing strategy. Something Rocco loves to do with his lineups is bait opposing managers into bringing in relievers for situational spots, in order to set up the matchups he wants. It's a savvy technique in the age of three-batter minimums, and one we've seen pay off several times in the past. As much as he clearly believes in Larnach's bat, one thing Baldelli will NOT do is let the outfielder bat against a left-handed pitcher, under almost any circumstance. Larnach has made only 13 plate appearances all year against a southpaw, with a full 95% of his PAs coming against righties. He's not going to face a left-hander late in a close game. Everyone knows it. But if an opposing team wants to call on a lefty reliever with Larnach stepping up to the plate, they'll have to pay the toll. Whenever Larnach is batting second or third, you are likely to find an imposing right-handed bat directly behind him in the lineup, and maybe a couple in a row. Baldelli would love for Lewis or Buxton to get a chance against a lefty reliever in a high-leverage late-game situation, and rightfully so. In thinking through these aspects of Larnach's fit in the batting order, I can start to see the logic in his consistent placement near the top. But I still think it's worth questioning and scrutinizing, especially if Minnesota's offense continues to sputter and slump. How much longer will Baldelli continue to buck convention by batting his fifth (sixth? seventh?) best hitter in lineup spots that should be reserved for your absolute best? View full article

Mmm I wouldn't say that. I think in their optimal scenario, come October, they'll view Festa clearly as one of their top three. It's still a ways away. He has the stuff to dominate a good lineup.

The Minnesota Twins navigated a wave of bad injury news and managed to fight their way to a 3-4 week, despite some tough competition and an offense that is once again short-circuiting. While they missed out on a key opportunity to gain more ground, the Twins did shave a game off Cleveland's division lead, moving within four games as the clock ticks down and the race heats up. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/5 through Sun, 8/11 *** Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 65-52) Run Differential Last Week: -5 (Overall: +54) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (3.5 GB) Game 111 | MIN 3, CHC 0: Festa Leads Way in Shutout for Pitching Staff Game 112 | CHC 7, MIN 3: Cubs Get to Pablo, Lineup Can't Answer Game 113 | CHC 8, MIN 2: Ryan Exits with Arm Injury, Twins Drop Series Game 114 | MIN 4, CLE 2: Ober Leads the Way in Series-Opening Win Game 115 | MIN 6, CLE 3: Wallner's Home Run Turns Tables on Cleveland Game 116 | CLE 2, MIN 1: Offense Stymied, SWR's Strong Start Spoiled Game 117 | CLE 5, MIN 3: Late Rallies Fall Short, Twins Settle for Split IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES Just in time for the start of their most important series of the season up to this point, the Twins shared an avalanche of crushing injury updates on Friday that will have a significant impact on the team's outlook for the rest of the way. Let's run through them and get up to speed. Joe Ryan was diagnosed with a grade-2 teres major strain, which will likely sideline him for the remainder of the campaign. Ryan pulled himself from Wednesday's start against the Cubs in the third inning, waving for a trainer to the mound immediately after unleashing a pitch and quickly exiting. In the big picture, this muscle strain is not a worst-case scenario in the same realm as a rotator cuff or UCL tear, but for 2024 it's a devastating blow to the Twins and their rotation. Ryan had been one of the best starters in the American League. The Twins haven't officially ruled him out for the year but given the recovery timeline, it'll be nearly impossible for him to make it back as a starter, if at all. We learned more definitively on Friday that Brock Stewart is done for the season, set to undergo surgery on his shoulder with a 5-6 month expected recovery. It was probably wishful thinking to expect any meaningful impact from Stewart, especially after what we saw during his brief return attempt in July, but still the finality of this news hits hard. Minnesota will now have to make do without one of their best starters and best relievers. Stewart was placed back on the 60-day IL to make room for reliever Scott Blewett, who joined the 40-man and active rosters. Those spots might've gone to Justin Topa, but unfortunately the veteran hit an unspecified "setback" in his rehab and his status is now in limbo once again. While unfortunate, the IL moves for Ryan and Stewart were not unexpected. It was a bit more surprising to see Brooks Lee join them on the injured list, with the team hoping some down time will help relieve his sore shoulder. You wonder how much that issue was impeding his performance at the plate, where Lee put up a .197 average and .492 OPS in his past 18 games. Kyle Farmer's readiness to return from his own shoulder injury enabled Minnesota to swap in another infielder and give Lee's ailing shoulder a break. Hopefully a couple of weeks off can get him feeling right because the rookie still has a role to play. Carlos Correa set his sights on being back on the field for the Cleveland series, but was unable to do so as his recovery from plantar fasciitis lags and frustrates the star infielder. Correa ran sprints on Thursday but reported afterward that the foot injury is "not quite where we want it to be yet." With a rehab assignment in the cards ahead of his activation, next weekend appears to be the soonest Correa could return to the Twins, and even that might be a stretch. He's rightfully taking a long view as the team continues to hold its own in his absence. Rounding out the roster news for the week: Steven Okert went on the bereavement list on Monday, with Josh Winder recalled to take his place. Right-handed reliever Giovanny Gallegos signed a minor-league deal and joined the Saints, which wouldn't normally be too noteworthy but might be in light of his considerable MLB experience and Minnesota's growing need for bullpen depth. HIGHLIGHTS Ever since he returned to the big leagues following a lengthy stay in Triple-A, Matt Wallner has been a one-man wrecking crew, obliterating baseballs to an unparalleled degree. He delivered perhaps the biggest Twins highlight of the season on Friday night: a go-ahead three-run homer that turned the tides in the game and helped lift Minnesota to a doubleheader sweep over Cleveland. Wallner was facing Alex Cobb in the bottom of the fifth with two runners on. In the top half of the inning, Louie Varland had given up a three-run homer that put the Guardians on top for the first time all day, sucking the wind out of Minnesota's sails. Not for long. Cobb fell behind Wallner 3-0 and made the ill-advised decision to come right into the middle of the zone against one of MLB's foremost mistake crushers. Unfortunately for Cobb, Wallner had the green light. It was a very strong week overall for the slugging outfielder, who went 6-for-18 with three doubles, the homer and five RBIs to power the offense. He was supported by quality contributions from Christian Vázquez (5-for-9 with two doubles and a homer) and Byron Buxton, who missed the Cubs series but then chipped in two homers and a double against Cleveland. In the rotation, the loss of Ryan means heightened pressure for rookie David Festa to assume a prominent role, through the end of the season and likely into the playoffs. So it's a good thing that Festa looked up to the task on Monday night in Chicago, tossing five innings of shutout ball with nine strikeouts. He didn't look quite as good in his second start of the week on Sunday, failing to make it out of the fourth against Cleveland as his command started to elude him, but still only gave up one run. If Festa can keep pitching well, he has the capability to accompany Pablo López and Bailey Ober in a formidable playoff rotation even with Ryan unavailable. López was off his game in Chicago on Tuesday but still has a 3.31 ERA in his past six turns. Ober was phenomenal once again on Friday, holding Cleveland scoreless through six innings in a series-opening victory. He has rattled off nine consecutive quality starts. On Saturday, Simeon Woods Richardson bounced back in a big way, holding the Guardians to two runs in seven innings to wash away the sour aftertaste of back-to-back ugly outings. Woods Richardson is now vying for a potential role in the postseason rotation himself, and performances like that one will help make the case. His ERA stands at 3.78 through 20 starts. Minnesota's bullpen keeps getting the job done when they're handed leads, even in the absence of Stewart. The nightmare outing from Trevor Richards, who came in cold following the Ryan injury on Wednesday and proceeded to struggle immensely (0.2 IP, 5 BB, 3 ER), skews the unit's overall results, but the relief corps played a key part in winning some tight ballgames. Twins relievers gave up only two runs in 11 ⅓ innings across the three victories. Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax naturally led the way, combining for four shutout frames, but there were also some promising performances elsewhere. That included Richards rebounding from the Wednesday clunker with a 1-2-3 ninth to pick up a save on Friday, Caleb Thielbar flashing some strikeout ability (8 K in 4.2 IP) and Winder delivering five innings of shutout, one-hit ball in long relief. LOWLIGHTS The Twins have been suffering major losses across all parts of the roster. In the rotation and bullpen, we've seen people step up. In the lineup, we need to see more of it. There weren't many outstanding offensive performances to accompany Wallner's mashing in a week where Minnesota batted .222 and averaged just 3.1 runs per game. Willi Castro went 5-for-27 (.185) with one double and one walk. Ryan Jeffers was 2-for-14 (.143) with no walks, and didn't drive in or score a run outside of his solo homer on Friday. José Miranda was 2-for-20 (.100), and is batting .205 with zero homers or RBIs since being activated from the injured list on July 27th. Austin Martin has been particularly unimpressive. He continues to produce almost nothing offensively (two singles in 15 plate appearances last week) and his defense has been shoddy whether viewed by the eye test or fielding metrics. The ostensible value of Martin's versatility loses its luster when he can't make plays at the positions he plugs into. Tuesday's adventurous route and ill-fated dive in center field at Wrigley on a Dansby Swanson "triple" served as one of the low points in the week. One way or another, Varland is going to be counted on by the Twins given the attrition on their pitching staff. Ideally he can eventually pick up where he left off in the bullpen, as a dominating arm in the late innings capable of offsetting the loss of Stewart. But for now, the Twins need him as part of their starting depth, and in that capacity, they called him up for the nightcap of Friday's doubleheader against Cleveland. Unfortunately, it was a pretty typical Varland start. He looked fine the first two times through the order and then unraveled the third time, putting a pair of runners aboard before serving up a 1-2 meatball to cleanup hitter Josh Naylor, who went yard for a three-run blast that (briefly) gave Cleveland the lead. For a fourth time in his eight MLB starts this year, Varland failed to complete five innings. It's par for the course for Varland, whose tendency to lapse into back-breaking mistake pitches at inopportune times has railroaded his progress as a starting pitcher. Finding a way to get the right-hander into a place where he can actually provide some value, whatever the role, is beginning to feel pivotal for Minnesota's outlook. TRENDING STORYLINE With Chris Paddack still down for the foreseeable future and Ryan likely out for the season, the Twins will see their starting pitching depth tested. They've already got a pair of rookies in the rotation in Festa and Woods Richardson. Varland is in play. Who else might factor in as the Twins push through the remainder of their schedule? Notably, Derek Falvey did not rule out Zebby Matthews when asked about the ascendant pitching prospect, who's currently at Triple-A. Matthews has a 5.68 ERA in four starts since being promoted to the Saints, but it comes along with a stellar 23-to-1 K/BB ratio in 19 innings. He last started on Thursday and could be in line to make his MLB debut during the upcoming Royals series. Meanwhile, the Twins have reportedly shown interest in old friend Rich Hill, who is gearing up to help a contender at age 44. He's not someone you would want to count on in any crucial spot at this stage, but if Hill were able come aboard and eat some innings in a Dallas Keuchel/Bartolo Colon capacity, that would be potentially useful and a fun little storyline. LOOKING AHEAD Another huge week is on tap for the Twins, who will welcome their other top divisional foe to Target Field for a three-game series. The third-place Royals trail Minnesota by just a half a game in the standings, and will be looking to leapfrog them in their home park. Get ready to be annoyed by Bobby Witt Jr. Minnesota's pitching plans for that series are up in the air, though as mentioned above, Matthews could be in line to make a start. From there, it's off to Texas for four games against the defending champs. Check out that probable starter for the Rangers on Sunday! MONDAY, AUG 12: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Brady Singer v. RHP Pablo Lopez TUESDAY, AUG 13: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Seth Lugo v. TBD WEDNESDAY, AUG 14: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Cole Ragans v. Bailey Ober THURSDAY, AUG 15: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. LHP Cody Bradford FRIDAY, AUG 16: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP David Festa v. RHP Nathan Eovaldi SATURDAY AUG 17: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Andrew Heaney SUNDAY, AUG 18: TWINS @ RANGERS – TBD v. RHP Tyler Mahle View full article

The Twins came up almost completely empty at yet another trade deadline, and compounded the pain by surrounding their inactivity with a pair of ugly losses against the Mets, but they rebounded to win four straight heading into a crucial week on the schedule. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/29 through Sun, 8/4 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 62-48) Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: +59) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (4.5 GB) Game 105 | NYM 15, MIN 2: Mets Run Up Score on SWR and Bullpen Game 106 | NYM 2, MIN 0: Festa Solid, Twins Blanked on Deadline Day Game 107 | MIN 8, NYM 3: López Leads Way as Twins Avoid NY Sweep Game 108 | MIN 10, CWS 2: Late Surge Turns Close Game into Blowout Game 109 | MIN 6, CWS 2: Ober's Excellence, Kepler's Bomb Bury Sox Game 110 | MIN 13, CWS 7: Early Lead Holds, Chicago Drops 20th Straight NO PODCAST VERSION THIS WEEK BECAUSE I'M ON THE ROAD. SORRY! YOU CAN USUALLY FIND NEW EPISODES AVAILABLE EACH WEEK ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES The trade deadline arrived on Tuesday, and it was a very active one around the league, although not so much here on the local scene. In their last opportunity to add meaningful help from outside this season, the Twins front office made only one move, and it was about as low-wattage as possible: acquiring veteran reliever Trevor Richards from the Blue Jays in exchange for minor-league infielder Jay Harry. The newly added 31-year-old right-hander is, by all appearances, a very mediocre pitcher. I'm sure he has traits that the Twins like, including career reverse splits that could make him a decent option against lefties, but this is a guy who's been borderline replacement level throughout his career. He has a 4.51 career ERA and 4.29 FIP, with his numbers for this year matching up closely to those. An underwhelming pickup to be sure, though to his credit, he made a couple of scoreless appearance in his first week as a Twin. To make room for Richards in the bullpen and on the 40-man rosters, the Twins designated Josh Staumont for assignment. It was a swift, sad downfall for Staumont, who looked to be pulling it all together in early July when his fastball was reaching triple digits and his ERA still stood at 0.00, albeit with a suspect K/BB ratio. Over his last seven appearances, he allowed 10 earned runs on 11 hits and six walks in 5 ⅓ innings, striking out just four of 33 hitters. It culminated with a nightmare outing against the Mets on Monday (0.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 3 BB) that caused Minnesota's faith in him to completely evaporate. He was released shortly after his DFA and is now out of the organization. That's one hopeful contributor subtracted from the bullpen for the stretch run. And unfortunately, Brock Stewart is now back in limbo after returning to the injured list following a brutal stint where he pitched three times and gave up eight earned runs while recording seven outs. It's a shoulder strain for Stewart, who I guess was maybe rushed back from the IL based on how things played out. Then again, he was out of action for almost three full months. Hard to believe he's going to be part of the picture from here on out. On a happier note, Randy Dobnak received a much-deserved promotion back to the big leagues, called up on Tuesday to provide some length and depth in the bullpen. Alex Kirilloff's placement on the 60-day IL opened up a 40-man spot. It's been nearly three years since Dobnak was last in the majors, making this an inspiring journey that hopefully has some more high points left ahead. The Twins could use it, with their bullpen outlook beginning to look shaky. The stakes suddenly feel rather high for Justin Topa's effort to play through a knee issue and supplement the relief corps. On that note, Topa completed his fourth rehab outing with the Saints on Sunday and appears likely to rejoin the Twins this week. HIGHLIGHTS On Saturday, Bailey Ober delivered yet another strong performance, holding the White Sox to two runs over seven innings and lowering his ERA to 3.74, including 3.13 since after his first start. It was Ober's eighth consecutive quality start, the longest such streak for a Twins pitcher since Phil Hughes a decade ago. Ober continues to pitch at an ace-like level and that should have fans feeling very excited. While he can't quite compete with Ober's streak, Pablo López logged a third consecutive quality start on Wednesday, picking up his 10th win of the season with six innings of two-run ball against the Mets. López now has a 2.86 ERA with only four home runs allowed in his past seven starts. Joe Ryan (6.1 IP, 2 ER vs CWS) and David Festa (5 IP, 2 ER vs NYM) also put forth impressive outings, making for a (mostly) very solid week for the rotation. Offensively, several of the usual suspects carried weight for the Twins. Byron Buxton homered twice, doubled and drove in four. Matt Wallner notched three more extra-base hits, improving to a team-leading 1.006 OPS. Royce Lewis went 5-for-20 in his first week back, making plenty of noise with two homers, two doubles, eight RBIs and six walks. It was also nice to see some bursts of offense from players who'd previously been slumping, including Max Kepler (5-for-15, 1 HR, 2 doubles) and Ryan Jeffers (3-for-11, 2 HR). Kepler's home run on Saturday – a crucial one in the closest game of the generally lopsided White Sox series – was his first in six weeks. Given the way he and Jeffers were tentpoles of this offense in the early going, it'd be huge to get both of them consistently swinging well again. While the bullpen had its wobbles, it was another confidence-inspiring week for the big arms at the back end: Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax and Cole Sands combined 9 ⅔ scoreless innings, striking out 10 with one walk. Jax was particularly outstanding, allowing just one baserunner in three innings with five strikeouts and a 30% swinging strike rate. He ranks sixth among MLB pitchers in fWAR (1.5). LOWLIGHTS Things were going smoothly through the first three innings for Simeon Woods Richardson in his week-opening start against New York on Monday, but it all unraveled in the fourth, where he was ambushed by Mets for six earned runs. This opened the floodgates in a blowout loss that saw Staumont and Stewart give up an additional nine runs. Woods Richardson followed with another rough start on Sunday, lasting just four innings against the lowly White Sox while giving up three runs on six hits and three walks. Overall, he allowed 19 baserunners in 7 ⅓ innings across his two turns. Even after two of his worst starts of the season, Woods Richardson still has a 3.87 ERA, which speaks to how well he's pitched on balance. We'll hope this is just a bump in the road and he can get back into a groove, although there have been concerns about potential regression due to his strikeout rate. The righty didn't get crushed in these outings by any means – 10 of the 13 hits he allowed were singles, most of them not that well struck – but it's a good example of how allowing too much contact can hurt you, which is the main reason it's always felt a little iffy to rely on SWR in the playoffs. As much success as the Twins are seeing in the heart of the lineup, the bottom part of the order has been much more stagnant. That's largely due to the ongoing slumps of Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, who both went 4-for-16 last week. These rookies can put the ball in play consistently, but Minnesota isn't getting a modicum of power from either one. Lee hasn't recorded an extra-base hit since July 10th, a stretch of 68 plate appearances, and Martin has just two since the start of July – one of them being a gifted "triple" that was butchered defensively by Chicago's Corey Julks on Saturday. As Carlos Correa works his way back from the injured list – he said over the weekend that he's starting to turn a corner, after the plantar fasciitis pain took longer than expected to subside – it appears Lee and Martin are battling to preserve their roster spots. Neither is doing a particularly convincing job at the moment. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins got no meaningful bullpen help at the deadline, in a week where they also lost Stewart to the injury list and released Staumont. They're going to need some help the rest of the way and it looks like they'll need to find it from within. There are some candidates. One straightforward possibility that stands out is moving Louie Varland back into a relief role, where he excelled late last year. The Twins could consider taking the same route with Triple-A prospect Zebby Matthews, or even Festa, though the latter is holding it down in the big-league rotation right now. As mentioned earlier, Topa appears close to joining the mix, which could potentially provide a big jolt in light of how he pitched for the Mariners last week. But given the status of his knee, Topa is a complete wild-card. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins have a key opportunity in front of them. First they've got three games against a pretty bad (but not terrible) Cubs team at Wrigley, where they'll look to stay hot as they ride a four-game winning streak. From there they head home for one of the most pivotal remaining points on the schedule: a four-game series at home against the Guardians team they're chasing in the standings. Taking three of four or sweeping Cleveland could thrust Minnesota right back into the thick of the race atop the division. Anything less is going to make the objective of overtaking the Central lead before year's end far more difficult. We'll see how they handle the doubleheader on Friday from a pitching standpoint. Potentially Dobnak could get the nod in one of those games. MONDAY, AUG 5: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP David Festa v. RHP Kyle Hendricks TUESDAY, AUG 6: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. Shota Imanaga WEDNESDAY, AUG 7: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Javier Assad FRIDAY, AUG 9: GUARDIANS @ TWINS (1) – LHP Joey Cantillo v. RHP Bailey Ober FRIDAY, AUG 9: GUARDIANS @ TWINS (2) – TBD v. TBD SATURDAY AUG 10: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Gavin Williams v. Simeon Woods Richardson SUNDAY, AUG 11: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP David Festa View full article

Those baseballs have families. Do you even think about that, Matthew? Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports On Wednesday, Matt Wallner did the damn thing again: he launched a 108-MPH drive to right-center and watched it sail 442 feet for his sixth home run this season (25th if we're counting Triple-A). That's a dazzling distance, and yet, when you watch the replay of Wallner's swing, it doesn't even seem like he hit the ball quite flush. He reached out and got the end of his bat on Luis Severino's tailing changeup, still managing to muscle it out with ease. What we're seeing should not be taken for granted. This is not normal. Wallner is literally hitting the ball as hard as anybody in the major leagues, and that includes the most famed and acclaimed bashers of this generation. Don't believe me? Let's just take a look at the stats. They're unbelievable. Wallner does not have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, having spent almost three months in the minors, but if he did, here's where he'd rank on the MLB leaderboard for three of the main Statcast measures of contact quality. AVERAGE EXIT VELOCITY Aaron Judge: 96.0 mph Matt Wallner: 95.9 mph Shohei Ohtani: 95.8 mph Oneil Cruz: 95.3 mph Juan Soto: 94.6 mph HARD HIT PERCENTAGE Matt Wallner: 61.8% Shohei Ohtani: 60.2% Aaron Judge: 60.2% Juan Soto: 57.8% Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 56.5% BARREL RATE Matt Wallner: 29.4% Aaron Judge: 27.5% Shohei Ohtani: 20.5% Juan Soto: 19.7% Giancarlo Stanton: 19.1% Now, the big caveat here is that Wallner strikes out WAY more than anyone on this list. Only Cruz (33%) and Stanton (31%) are even in his stratosphere, but not really -- Wallner has struck out in a whopping 43% of his plate appearances this year. He still has managed to produce a .990 OPS, which leads the Twins and is 73% better than the average big-leaguer. Now, there's partially some good batted-ball luck at play (he won't maintain a .429 BABIP), but also, it's what quality contact will do for you. One measurement that was recently added to Statcast's public metrics serves to help explain why Wallner punishes the ball so much when he gets wood on it. Bat tracking data tells us that Wallner swings the stick at 77.6 MPH on average, which -- if qualified -- would rank third in the majors, behind Stanton and Cruz, ahead of Kyle Schwarber and Judge. I suppose one could reasonably ask if Wallner should continue to swing this ferociously hard. There's certainly no reason to change anything at the moment, but if production dries up and his extreme proneness to strikeouts sends him into another slump, the idea of dialing back slightly could gain merit. The slugger could theoretically afford to take a little off, given that he's registering legitimate MVP-level contact results right now. The other scenario is that he keeps hitting the ball this hard and manages to rein the strikeouts back to a semi-reasonable level. In that case, we might need to start rethinking how we talk about his ceiling as a difference-maker for this franchise. For the time being, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show. I'm a sucker for players who have visibly elite skills, and Wallner's ability to crush the ball is verifiably elite. I'm loving it; I'd probably love it less if I was an infielder who had to stand anywhere near him, or a family member to one of those poor baseballs. View full article

The Twins came up empty once again at the trade deadline, despite being positioned as clear buyers with needs that were openly acknowledged by the front office. While it's clear that ownership's restriction on adding any payroll played a significant role, this wasn't the only factor holding them back. Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports It's unfortunate that the Twins missed out on their last chance to add significant outside help for the stretch run and (hopefully) into the playoffs. The fact that an ownership-imposed unwillingness to spend was primarily responsible for this inaction makes it all the more upsetting. Frustration from fans is more than justified. However, there were other things at play in stymying the front office. You can make a case that even if they had some level of spending flexibility, the Twins would've been wise to bypass any significant moves that were available. The reality is, given their circumstances, opportunities did not line up very well for Minnesota at this trade deadline. Here are three factors that, from my view, likely contributed to the front office standing pat. The market was limited (and ultimately ridiculous) for the upgrades they needed Although they definitely came nowhere close to meeting it, the threshold for what really qualified as a meaningful upgrade for the Twins was pretty high. They have a balanced, complete lineup and a solid bench. They have at least three very good starting pitchers. They have a handful of relievers who've proven capable in the late innings. To really get better, the Twins needed a legit No. 3 or above starter, and maybe a high-caliber back end reliever. There weren't too many of those guys available on the market, especially once teams like Texas opted not to sell. And seeing the prices for some who were moved ... no thanks. Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi was one of the names most commonly connected to the Twins as a make-sense target, and it sounds like they did actively pursue him to some degree, but Kikuchi ended up going to Houston for a prospect haul that Minnesota's front office rightfully came nowhere close to beating out. Look, Kikuchi is a talented pitcher with some solid peripherals. But he also has a 4.75 ERA this year (4.72 career) and the Blue Jays didn't trust him to start in the playoffs last year, coming off his best season. What really is the reasonable upside for this two-month rental? Trading away a 23-year-old starting pitcher with any level of ability, let alone two additional prospects, for that kind of underwhelming addition is hard to view as a savvy move, but it's one that the Astros were pressed into making because they had a much greater need. The Twins will likely welcome the chance to face the lefty Kikuchi in the playoffs, if it comes to that. Beyond Kikuchi, some the most compelling deadline options happened to be on teams that apparently had little interest in doing business with the Twins: AL Central sellers were reluctant to trade within the division As Dan Hayes of The Athletic explained in an appearance on Foul Territory TV, the White Sox took a hardline approach against trading with their rival, setting a laughable asking price for Erick Fedde when the Twins inquired. The notion of giving up Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee or Emmanuel Rodriguez for a rental arm was rightfully laughed off. Frankly, I'm a little troubled that they would've considered even Luke Keaschall, if true. It sounds as though similar dynamics were at play with the Tigers and Jack Flaherty. "[The Twins] got the sense, with both Detroit and Chicago, that they just didn't want to trade in-division," Hayes shared. "That does make it difficult. You don't want to see your rivals win." The Twins were evidently willing to wade into those waters, despite the stakes being a bit higher for them as well. If, say, Fedde doesn't pitch brilliantly down the stretch and make a big difference in the playoffs (low likelihood, honestly), and you traded Keaschall for him, you're looking at a level of potential lingering follow-up pain that would make Spencer Steer blush. Chris Paddack got hurt and Max Kepler's play has tailed off substantially This last factor, I guess, does come back to money. But it also illustrates the way various trends played out against the front office in their deadline quest. Given the impetus to maintain a neutral payroll with any moves, unloading current commitments was going to be requisite for any significant add. The two most sensible candidates to dangle in a balanced salary swap? Paddack, owed about $9 million through next year, and Kepler, owed about $4 million through the rest of this year. If Paddack were healthy and pitching the way he was at times earlier in this season, he might have been appealing as a target for another playoff-minded team. Perhaps that played some role in motivating the Twins to activate him from the injured list in mid-July to showcase him ahead of the All-Star break. Whatever the reasoning, that decision didn't work out, as Paddack flashed the same inconsistent stuff and then quickly landed back on the injured list. The idea of trading Kepler might have been appealing for two reasons. First: they have high-quality lefty hitters for both corners in Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Second: it would give them an opportunity to get something now for Kepler instead of nothing after the season, since they surely won't extend a qualifying offer. If he was still mashing the way he did in the second half last year, or the early weeks of this season, Kepler may have stood out to another contending club, opening the door for a creative need-versus-need deal. But the outfielder's power stroke has gone amiss and he's reverted to mediocre form offensively, with a .244/.295/.349 slash line in his past 60 games. My understanding is that the Twins did explore some conversations with others teams involving Kepler, but obviously, nothing ended up coming together. The good news, I suppose, is that Kepler and Paddack both have a chance to help the Twins get where they want to go this year. That's the overall outcome of another fruitless deadline: they Twins will need to rely on what they've already got. "I believe in our group," Derek Falvey told reporters after coming up empty. "I feel like this is a group that we want to go to battle with.” Let's hope he's right. Then again, what choice did he have? View full article

When it comes to starting pitchers, there is a certain threshold that divides the good from the great – the guys you want starting in the playoffs and the guys that you don't. We seem to be watching Bailey Ober cross that threshold before our very eyes. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports When I was down in Ft. Myers for spring training back in March, one of the players who intrigued me most was Bailey Ober. He felt so integral to the viability of a post-Sonny Gray rotation: a pitcher with legit frontline ability who just needed to prove it out over a bigger sample, and carry it through the finish line. Ober had pitched up to the level of a top-tier starter, but when push came to shove, the Twins didn't really trust him to start a playoff game. Changing that felt critical to the 2024 team's outlook. In camp, there were positive signs. Ober was pitching brilliantly in the Grapefruit League, as he experimented with a new cutter and flashed unprecedented levels of velocity. Following one of this strong outings, I asked manager Rocco Baldelli what it would take for Ober to take the next step. "Bailey’s a difficult one to talk about in that conversation because he does a lot of different things really well, and has from truly the day he walked in the door at the big-league level," Baldelli said. "Could he go from exceptional to very exceptional? It's like, I don't know, maybe." The point was well taken. Ober entered this season with a 3.63 ERA in nearly 300 major-league innings. That's a track record many would envy. At the same time, the Twins still didn't want to ride him last October, with everything on the line, so he couldn't have been viewed as that exceptional. Right? Rocco's riff really seemed to get to the heart of the matter: Ober's last remaining hurdle was indeed making that leap from good to great; from exceptional to very exceptional. He didn't get off to a good start in this pursuit, to say the least. Ober's first start of the 2024 season was almost unimaginably bad; he was clubbed by the Royals in Kansas City for eight earned runs in 1 ⅓ innings. But the right-hander instantly turned the page and has pitched like a true frontline force ever since. In 19 starts since flushing that Kauffman clunker, Ober has a 3.17 ERA and 3.40 FIP, holding opponents to a .197 batting average. He's only gotten better as the season has progressed, with Ober's hot streak reaching new heights in his latest start, perhaps the finest of his career. On Sunday he mowed down the Tigers over eight innings of shutout, one-hit ball, setting a personal record with 11 strikeouts. Ober's newly added cutter has become an integral part of his arsenal, accounting for 22% of pitches thrown. And while it's been a solid offering in its own right, generating a 22% whiff rate and holding opponents to a .253 average, the cutter's biggest value might be simply bringing another offspeed variant that makes his accompanying changeup and slider even harder to pick up. Those pitches are the ones Ober is really using to dominate – opponents are whiffing 39% of the time against his changeup and batting .096 against his slider. Sunday's outing added to a solidifying trend we've seen from Ober – he's not just pitching well, he is flat-out dominating, like never before. Sunday's start was the third in his past six where Ober tallied 20+ swings and misses. He'd previously done so once in his career. Since the midpoint of June he leads all MLB pitchers in swinging-strike rate, and check out his company at the top: Bailey Ober, 17.3% Cole Ragans, 16.4% Logan Gilbert, 15.8% Tarik Skubal, 15.7% Max Scherzer, 14.7% Corbin Burnes, 14.5% That group below Ober includes four All-Stars, and all pitchers who could or will start in the playoffs. In fact there are several Game 1 caliber starters. Maybe it's time we started talking about Ober in that conversation. Of course, this is putting the cart in front of the proverbial horse. The real final hurdle for the 29-year-old is proving he can sustain and maintain his excellence through the end of a long MLB season and beyond. That's been a sticking point. In 2022, injuries limited Ober to just 56 innings with the Twins. Last year he powered through 26 starts, but the team felt wary enough of his diminishing stamina late in the season that they sent him down to Triple-A for a spell in September, and then gave him a short leash in a three-inning ALDS start. The lack of faith was justified based on Ober's postseason results. Between that Game 1 start and a relief appearance in the Game 3 blowout loss, he gave up six earned runs on four homers in 4 ⅓ innings. It surely left a sour taste in his mouth, and maybe that plays a role in driving his inspired play this season. We'll see if it can fuel him to the finish line, and from there, his shot at Oct-Ober redemption. View full article

The Twins got back three key players from the injured list last week, and now the front office will set its sights on further additions for the stretch run as the clock ticks down on the trade deadline. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Brian Bradshaw Sevald, Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/22 through Sun, 7/28 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 58-46) Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: +51) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (4.5 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 99 | MIN 7, PHI 2: Ober, Twins Win Convincingly Over High-Powered Phils Game 100 | PHI 3, MIN 0: Wheeler Shuts Down Offense, Duran Lapses Late Game 101 | MIN 5, PHI 4: Kepler Caps Comeback With Walk-Off Single in Ninth Game 102 | MIN 9, DET 3: Twins Bury Tigers Behind Pablo and Power Hitting Game 103 | DET 7, MIN 2: Offense Goes Silent After Lewis's Early Blast Game 104 | MIN 5, DET 0: Another Ober Gem Helps Clinch Another Series IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES As expected, the Twins got back three crucial roster pieces over the past week in a wave of game-changing roster reinforcements. First up was Brock Stewart, activated for the final game of the Phillies series on Wednesday. To make room for Stewart's activation from the 60-day IL, infielder Diego Castillo was designated for assignment; he passed through waivers and returned to Triple-A. Stewart looked a bit rocky in two appearances, allowing four earned runs over 1 ⅔ innings (that's one more run than he'd allowed in his first 41 outings as a Twin), but hopefully it's more a reflection of rustiness than any lingering arm issues. Friday brought the much-anticipated activation of Royce Lewis, who'd been sidelined since early July with an adductor strain. To make room for Lewis, who started at third and batted cleanup in the series opener against Detroit, Jair Camargo was optioned back to St. Paul. Lewis went 3-for-9 with a homer and a double in two games against the Tigers before sitting on Sunday (though he did draw an intentional walk as a pinch-hitter in the ninth). On Saturday it was José Miranda rejoining the fray, coming off the injured list following his bout with a lower back strain. He replaced Edouard Julien, who was sent back to Triple-A following a very discouraging stint in the majors. Miranda went 1-for-4 in his first game back, then took a fastball to the helmet in his first at-bat on Sunday and exited the game. A scary moment. He passed preliminary testing for a concussion, and was diagnosed with a head contusion. Hoping all is well and Miranda can get back into the lineup relatively quickly. We wondered last week who would fill in for injured Chris Paddack in the fifth rotation spot, which fell on Wednesday against the Phillies. It turned out to be David Festa, although he didn't make a traditional start, instead entering midway through the first inning to relieve opener Steven Okert. Festa pitched very well, allowing just one run in 4 ⅓ innings with seven strikeouts. Ronny Henriquez shuttled back to Triple-A to make room for Festa, who may stick around for a bit depending on what plays out at the deadline. Also arriving in St. Paul last week: Justin Topa, whose rehab assignment is progressing toward completion. The 33-year-old righty, who posted a 2.83 ERA out of the Mariners bullpen last year before being sent to Minnesota in the Jorge Polanco trade, has yet to make a regular-season appearance, bothered by knee issues since spring. But he's positioning himself as another potential sneaky second-half reinforcement. HIGHLIGHTS With the trade deadline now bearing down on us, there's plenty of talk about the need to add another starter – and rightfully so – but the rotation acquitted itself very nicely over the past week. The back half came through brilliantly in a daunting matchup against the Phillies, with Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Festa combining to allow only three runs in 17 ⅓ innings. On Friday, Pablo López fired seven innings of two-run ball against Detroit, improving to a 2.84 ERA with only three homers allowed in his past six starts. Joe Ryan delivered another quality start on Saturday, striking out eight Tigers with only one walk allowed. Then Ober capped the week with another gem against Detroit on Sunday. Ober is on top of his game like we've never seen before. He gave up a two-run homer to Bryce Harper in the first inning on Monday (that'll happen), but then locked in to fire 14 consecutive scoreless frames against Philadelphia and Detroit, allowing just two hits. Ober has quietly emerged as one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the big leagues, pairing an elite bat-missing capability with his signature top-notch command to stymy opposing lineups. In his last seven starts, Ober is 5-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 59-to-9 K/BB ratio in 48 ⅓ innings. Matt Wallner keeps on crushing to jolt an offense that has been lagging around him at times. The outfielder went 5-for-12 last week with two doubles, two homers, and three walks. He leads the team in OPS since returning from Triple-A in early July, and deservingly made his first MLB start as No. 3 hitter on Sunday. A couple of other noteworthy offensive performances: Christian Vázquez made the most of his 12 plate appearances, notching five hits (including a home run) and two walks, while Carlos Santana put forth another strong week with three multi-hit games. Also: Byron Buxton notched three more extra-base hits; he's slugging .684 in July. LOWLIGHTS The lineup hasn't been clicking like it once was, and that starts at the top. Willi Castro was mired in a big slump prior to reaching base four times in Sunday's win, with a .189 average in July. He has only three extra-base hits over the past month, all doubles, and continues to be one of the league's worst hitters with RISP. Castro's defensive struggles at shortstop have caused him to seemingly cede the interim starter job there to Brooks Lee (who's looked pretty good!). None of this is meant to downplay Castro, who's played to the utmost of his ability and been hugely valuable. But he's not a flawless player, and he's been getting maximum exposure as an everyday leadoff man with constantly fluctuating defensive assignments. Some of those flaws are bound to come through. At the plate, it's now a matter of adjustments being made on his part, and maybe we started to see that on Sunday. Lee is another once-hot hitter who's cooled off here in the thick of the summer. He did produce a three-hit game on Friday, but was otherwise 2-for-19 and he has gone 11 straight games without an XBH, often battling to get the ball out of the infield. The MLB learning curve spares almost no man, even those as polished and talented as Lee, who is likely in line to return to the minors once Carlos Correa is activated. That might still give him a couple of weeks to turn around the skid. As Vázquez keeps showing signs of life at the plate, Ryan Jeffers is trending in the opposite direction. He was 3-for-18 last week and had a number of rough at-bats. It's been a stark drop-off for Jeffers, who was a dangerous power bat early in the season and now poses little threat at the plate. Pitchers are making quick work of him by taking command of undisciplined, reactive at-bats. Jeffers is swinging at a career-high 32% of pitches outside the zone. In fairness, the offense was good enough for the Twins to win both their series this past week. They're going to get a boost as Lewis and Miranda fully work their way back in, and Correa's return is hopefully not too far off. But for this team to reach its full potential in the second half and overcome their deficit in the division, the Twins need to get back to the baseline of consistent contributions up and down the lineup, with everyone chipping in. On the pitching front, as good as the starting rotation has looked, Minnesota's bullpen is showing its warts. Jhoan Durán delivered perhaps his worst outing of the season on Tuesday, entering in the ninth inning of a tie game and allowing three earned runs to take the loss. Durán was all over the place, throwing just 11 of 27 pitches for strikes while allowing four base runners and recording only two outs. He did bounce back with a scoreless inning on Wednesday. Josh Staumont has allowed five earned runs in his past five appearances after allowing zero in his first nineteen. Okert inspires no confidence – he gave up three hits and a walk while recording two outs in his two appearances, and has a 7.59 ERA since the start of June. Stewart was uncharacteristically human in his first week back from a prolonged IL stint, splashing cold water on the idea that he'd immediately slot back in and bolster the back end of the bullpen. One way or another, this relief corps is going to need some help for the stretch run, whether internal or external. They do have some bullets in the chamber with Louie Varland still starting at Triple-A (for now), Topa on the comeback trail, and Paddack theoretically back at some point. But then there is also the following option. TRENDING STORYLINE The trade deadline arrives on Tuesday, with multiple reports of spending limitations throwing a damper on Minnesota's outlook. Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY suggested last week that the Twins are "hamstrung in their pursuit of trade acquisitions unless they’re able to dump a contract," which matches up to earlier reporting from ESPN's Jeff Passan that the Twins front office is forced to walk an "add-and-subtract" tightrope in trying to add at the deadline. Following an offseason in which the Twins slashed payroll by $35 million, this sucks to hear. It's another morale-crushing development at a time where ownership could do themselves a big favor by investing in their product and helping push a legitimate contender to the next level. But up until 5:00 PM on Tuesday, that's all just words and hearsay. Actions speak louder. This certainly seems like an opportunity for this franchise to make a positive statement, rather than further diminishing their brand and the enthusiasm of their fans. To prep yourself for the next couple of days, here are some recommended trade deadline previews and analysis from our writers. There will of course be plenty more coverage in the next couple of days. Prospects, Players, or Patience? The Twins Must Choose, by Cody Christie Chris Paddack’s Injury Necessitates Action for Twins, by Greggory Masterson Three Uncontrollable Factors Are Helping the Twins' Competitors, by Eric Blonigen Jack Flaherty Is the Ideal Trade Deadline Acquisition For the Twins, by Cody Schoenmann These 5 Twins Will Be More Important Down the Stretch Than Any Trade Additions, by Ted Schwerzler Twins Establish GoFundMe for Trade Deadline, by Randballs Stu (🤣) LOOKING AHEAD The Twins head from Detroit to New York, where they're set to face off against a resurgent Mets team that has heated up to push into playoff contention. Notably, the Twins are scheduled to face a pair of lefty starters in that series. Afterward, it's back to Target Field for a softer matchup against the White Sox, who've lost nine of 10 to Minnesota this season. Chicago's two best starters are on the docket in Erick Fedde and Garrett Crochet, but we'll see if one or both are gone by the time that series rolls around. Fedde and Crochet are hot commodities on the trade market with the Sox in clear seller mode. MONDAY, JULY 29: TWINS @ METS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. LHP Jose Quintana TUESDAY, JULY 30: TWINS @ METS – RHP David Festa v. LHP Sean Manaea WEDNESDAY, JULY 31: TWINS @ METS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Luis Severino FRIDAY, AUG 2: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Erick Fedde v. RHP Joe Ryan SATURDAY, AUG 3: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Garrett Crochet v. RHP Bailey Ober SUNDAY, AUG 4: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Chris Flexen v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson View full article