Nashvilletwin

Do you really think either one wants to sign an extension with the Twins? Ryan can’t wait to leave. Both will do way better than what the Twins would be willing to pay them. And Boras, their agent, knows that too.

I wonder if one of our fellow TDers could explain how this team is better positioned to compete than last year’s team. Maybe position by position. Buxton ‘26 better than Buxton ‘25? Not likely, sadly. Lee better than Correa? No. Not close. Jeffers/Jackson better than Jeffers/Vasquez? Draw. Keaschall better than Julien, et al? Yes. Please. Martin better than Bader? Hope so, but by how much? Lewis ‘26 better than Lewis ‘25? Better be for his sake. Wallner ‘26 better than Wallner ‘25? Hope so, but by how much? Clemens/Julien better than France? Certainly not in the field. Larnach ‘26 better than Larnach ‘25? Meh. Starters? Should be if Lopez is healthy and Abel shows up. Bullpen? Not even close with Duran, Jax, and Varland gone. Shelton better than Rocco? Can’t be much worse. Unless something miraculous happens, would any person expect the ‘26 Twins to score more runs and give up fewer runs than the ‘25 team? Hard to see. Just keeping things real.

Over the past several years, several were sent up and down or platooned. Most lost their confidence and none (!) developed into an every day major leaguer despite their minor league performance and/or draft pedigree. You want Larnach or Wallner to be any every day player in the field or DH, they have to bat against lefties. We gave AB after AB to clowns like Joey Gallo. Either you invest in your prospects or you quit blowing wind up our rears about how good these guys are. Twill this year be different? Will Jenkins, ERod, Gonzalez, even Culpepper see ML ABs? Will Wallner get platooned every time a lefty takes the mound?

This team competing as basically currently constructed is a complete pipe dream. Sorry, but it is. A team consisting of only one above average position player (who might play 100 games if we are lucky), only one average position player (who really has to be traded by the deadline), two solid #2 starters, two solid #4 starters, possibly the most inexperienced, depth lacking (i.e worst) bullpen in the majors, and a manager whose record suggests he is well below average, is not going to contend. And there should be no expectations of any significantly helpful assets being added given the ownership situation. This is hard to argue against. But, if there are no decent offers forthcoming for what we consider our top assets (and the trade market involving top prospects has been very weak thus far this off-season), then is there much choice but to pursue this strategy? Probably not. So, the strategy is to roll with what we have and hope some players play much better than their skills and history would suggest they are capable of. Wow, talk about a Hail Mary strategy. So we will rinse and repeat the past couple of years bringing in a few has-been cheap vets, forgoing investing in playing time and crucial ABs for our true prospects, and being content with a boring roster and most certainly a losing record. The only difference is this year we are starting with even less. There may not be a better alternative, but what a snooze this year is going to be - especially if Buxton - the one player worth watching every day- gets hurt. Lets pray the ping pong balls fall our way tomorrow.

Twins are starting the year essentially with the squad they have. Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers are not getting moved this offseason. None of them. What’s the risk? Come July when we are 10 games under .500 the next big purge will occur and all four plus others will be gone Let’s hope they are all healthy and performing It’s hard to imagine that with the strike pending that Ryan and Buxton will get more than their current peak value Lopez, maybe Jeffers is a rounding error in this discussion, but could bring more at the deadline

The trade market so far this year has been weak - not great returns for established talent. The pending 2027 strike might be a good part of the reason. TDers, like myself, who hoped we’d be getting a haul of top 100 in trades this off-season look like they are going to be disappointed. So, with trade conditions as they are, the FO will take these FanGraph predictions to heart and roll the dice on ‘26. So the TDers who want to keep Buxton, Lopez and Ryan should take heart - you very well could see them in Twins uniforms on Opening Day. Its not a terrible strategy if the return for any of those three isn’t a pretty much sure-fired (as much as any player can be) contributor in ‘28 and beyond. However, don’t expect any big additions to this roster to bolster the probabilities of success - the penny pinching is not going away. With only one above average major leaguer (the oft hurt Buxton) and one average major leaguer (the “has to be traded by the deadline” Jeffers) among our position players, as well as possibly the worst bullpen on paper in the majors, all being led by the proven managerial genius Shelton, the smart money has the under on 82 wins - and it’s not even close.

Well said. It’s not that we have too many left handed corner OFs, it’s that we don’t have any good ones. ERod needs to get his chance. But I’ve (sadly) had the under on him ever being a dependable, above average major leaguer. Hope I’m wrong. Other than Jenkins, none of the others will likely ever fit that description as well.

Let’s go complete blockbuster. Why goof off with another team if the Mets have the prospects we covet and we have just what the Mets need? Buxton and Ryan and Ober for McLean, Benge and Sloat. Essentially direct replacements. If they balk on McLean, then Buxton and Ryan for Benge, Sloat, Tong and Reimer - we keep Ober. We do not want Jett; we are long SS prospects and if we win the lottery on Sunday we will draft the best SS and overall #1 prospect in June.

No way we trade for Jett in any event before we find out when we draft. If we get the #1, we will draft Chowolsky who is a true #1 SS prospect - way better than Jett and probably arrive just as fast.

‘26 will 100% not be a competitive year. ‘27 will be a stub season marred by the strike. The Twins next window starts in ‘28 and ideally can last 3-4 additional years. Sell anyone who has value and will not be here when that window opens - as long as the return is one or more players who project to contribute during that window. That’s the correct strategy for building a contender. And it also is the best strategy for increasing the franchise’s value and getting the Pohlads out. Buxton and Ryan are at peak value this week. They should be gone by Sunday. Lopez might need spring training or a month or two to get back to peak value. But if the offer is good now, hit the bid. Jeffers seems more like a trade deadline type candidate.

Great rant. Superb.

As usual, you make a sage, nuanced point. Bullpen failures are devasting to the morale of the team. If you are Ryan or Lopez and you pick your heart out, say going six innings and leave up 3-2 - only to see that potential win evaporate time and time again……. Or the weak hitting lineup scratches out some much needed runs only to see a lead go away….. Think of the pressure building on the entire team on every pitch and AB…. Not fun.

So, let’s say you are looking for a new job and are being courted by several potential employers. Which of these do you choose? A. The one where the boss hates your guts. B, The one that potentially pays you a little bit more (but may have higher taxes), but the company really can’t compete and is going absolutely nowhere while you will be there, the facilities are subpar, the best employees are either leaving or want to leave, and the culture has been noxious. C. Anywhere else as long as the pay is somewhat comparable. Let’s face it. The Twins are not a premier destination for top FAs

Nick, don’t let your heart be troubled. It won’t always be like this. Pray we win the draft lottery and we will then have multiple big league SS prospects (Culpepper, Houston, Chowolsky) from which to choose in ‘28. Heck, all three may be in our starting infield by then along with Keaschall at 1B.

Well said MGX. I agree, pick a lane. Sadly, your second option just doesn’t appear to truly be on the table given the lack of financial resources seemingly available. I also agree 100% that the in-between option is what will be selected entering the season. The FO and ownership will delude themselves into taking the chance that this lineup can compete. The toggle back to your first alternative then happens sometime around the all-star break when trades start to be made and prospects (Jenkins, ERod, Culpepper, Gonzalez, etc.) start to get called up. The risk, of course, is what happens to the trade values of Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers - do they go up or down as the season progresses? I’d argue that Ryan and Buxton are at peak risk-adjusted value now. Lopez’s value may go up as he reproves his durability and effectiveness through the first two months or so. Jeffers is the ideal trade deadline type candidate - keep him until then (and we might have a little more depth at catcher by then anyway).

Among the position players, we have exactly one above average major leaguer (Buxton, when healthy) and one average major leaguer (Jeffers). The rest are below average, albeit, with some playing time, a few might be able to become average big leaguers. If Buxton were to miss any extended time (which given history seems more than likely), our position player lineup is, on paper, as unexciting as it is non-competitive. On the mound, we have two above average starters (solid #1 or #2s), two about average (i.e. decent #4 or #5s) and one project. Coming out of the bullpen, we have no clear studs, no clearly defined roles, limited depth, and even more limited experience. Do not expect Ryan and Lopez to win many games they leave leading by a run or two after five or six solid innings. So is this the lineup for which you waste the trade values of Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and even Jeffers - none of whom will be Twins in ‘28 after the strike shortened ‘27 campaign? With the proven managerial maestro Shelton at the helm? Sure, lightning might strike and this team might look competitive through mid year. Given the lack of money to bolster the lineup as the season progresses, that delusion would likely be the worst case scenario for the future of the Twins. The more likely scenario is that every player outside of the few tradable assets enters the season knowing they are fighting for their big league careers and not all (or even many) will make it. Consequently, this roster, particularly the position players and starting pitching, should look incredibly different by August 1st. And that just may be the best outcome for the team and franchise long-term.

True, but most of those early ABs were when he was still screwing around with his swing (at the behest of the Twins’ coaching staff). He became much more productive and consistent when he went back to the swing/strategy at the plate that made him a top draft pick. He’s earned his starting role - especially on this club, lol.

Gonzalez in LF after the trade deadline (along with ERod in RF and Jenkins in CF). Martin and Rhoden are OFs #4 and #5 for the last 60 games or so. Wallner gets his opportunity to be the primary DH. Buxton oks a trade to get a chance for a ring and the Twins invest valuable MLB innings in their OF of the future. The fans get something different to watch over the last two months of ‘26 and something to look forward to whenever baseball is played in ‘27. Win-win-win.

Each side - players and owners - will have their own significant internal divisions to deal with initially. On the players side, the “stars” have historically won the argument against the cap given their political power within the players association. However, given the meteoric rise of salaries at the top end clearly at the expense of those players at the bottom and middle - for whom a floor would certainly be beneficial - it may be difficult for the players to present a United front. On the owners side, the big market owners have carried the day as well in the past. But the growth rates in franchise values between the top few and the rest has grown significantly wider. Most owners, like the Pohlads, have seen what the cap and floor model in the NFL has done for the franchise values of smaller market owners (as well as the competitive balance of the league) and will rightly push hard for a cap giving a floor in return. You may see some strange bedfellows emerge among the participants in these negotiations with the rank and file players joining the smaller market owners to push for a cap as long as the floor is high enough. Grab your popcorn and plenty of it. It’s going to be a long movie. One reason will be that the smaller owners will gladly trade lost near term revenues for an immediate spike in their franchise values. Which is precisely why the Pohlads are waiting to sell.

Cody, I respect your opinion, but just disagree with it. But differing opinions is what makes the world go ‘round, thankfully. Interestingly, I actually think step 1 is a given for this FO. And step 2 (whether it’s Goldschmidt or someone else) fits right into the FO’s usual playbook. So, some combo of your plan is probably exactly what will happen. At least out of the gate. Come July when it’s clear the team just cannot compete, then the second great purge will occur with Ryan, Lopez, Buck and Jeffers gone. This FO is going to roll the dice on the health and performance of their three/four biggest assets to give the fans some early season hope and drive ticket sales. If the team plays well, then they stick with the plan. If not, they jettison the assets later. The cost of this strategy is the risk regarding the return those assets might bring later rather than earlier. This FO will be willing to take that risk. So, although I disagree with the your plan Cody, I do think some subset of what you propose starting with #1 is exactly what the FO will do. Happy Thanksgiving to all TDers!

As long as the “major league” players returned could be more than reasonably likely to be part of the post lockout core; otherwise, the next best thing are high upside nearly ready prospects.

Thanks Nick for laying things out so clearly. This article demonstrates quite definitively why it makes absolutely no sense to run it back this year with Lopez and Ryan. There just aren’t enough good players and there isn’t any money or trade capital (other than Buxton) to bring in new ones. There is zero reason to waste the highest value Ryan and Lopez will ever have while they run out the clock on their time with the Twins. The TDers hoping to compete in ‘26 with this roster are dreaming. There is exactly one above average major leaguer on this roster when healthy (Buxton). And exactly one average major leaguer at best (Jeffers - who only has one year left with the club). The best of the rest (Lewis, Wallner, Keaschall, Martin, Lee) are (generously) at best currently fringe major leaguers, albeit with possibly some upside potential. Just go all in on the rebuild. That’s really the only option if this team has any chance to compete post the lock-out when Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and likely Buxton are all gone anyway.

It’s really hard to sell a declining asset/business. You always want to sell when the asset/business is on the upswing - because then you can sell the hope/upside. The story is way easier and plausible to sell. Once the asset/business starts to decline in value/performance, the story in the eyes of potential buyers that needs to be disproved changes to “how low can it go?”. That’s very difficult to do - who wants to catch a falling knife? So, if there is a reasonable, implementable plan to turn the business around, then it’s a reasonable risk to take it to rebuild value. This is where the Twins/Pohlads are now. So what’s the plan? Threefold: 1. Improve financial performance. Reduce debt (by bringing in the minority investors) and improve operating profits (mostly by reducing costs). But this is not nearly enough….. 2. Capitalize on improving industry conditions. At the moment, the team is facing two strong industry headwinds - a looming lockout and tv revenue chaos. In addition, the smaller market teams face the notable competitive disadvantages of a non-salary cap league. It’s a reasonable bet that these issues will be resolved quite significantly in the Twins favor sometime in ‘27. But the business itself still needs a story of how it can grow….. 3. Build a story of how the team can compete in the future. This needs to be based on a plan that can reasonably expected to be achievable. The Twins do not have that yet - not even close. They have not committed to either a full rebuild ala the Astros or going more all in with the current SP core. The current plan seems to be mired in the “condemned to sub mediocrity” middle, Moreover, there should be no expectation that any potential buyer would have confidence in the current management of this business: the Nephew, Falvey and Shelton have not proven that they can build that compelling story of team upside. Until they pick a lane and achieve results, even post the new CBA it will be hard to get top dollar, let alone sell. With respect to #3, the story of the complete rebuild is much easier to sell even if results on the field haven’t translated yet. But it’s still risky. Trying to win with the current core is very difficult because there is no cash available to augment that core (proven to be non-competitive) via free agency. So, do you hope that somehow the team can perform this year with the same strategy but with even less financial resources than the past failing teams have had? Or do you trade your top assets to build a more compelling story for the post lockout world? That’s basically the choice Twins are facing. Personally, to maximize the potential sale price, I’d select the later. Go all in on the rebuild - you can market the young players to the fans and keep costs low in the meantime, But the apparently “safer” choice appears to be the former and that is the path I predict the Twins will follow.

DeBarge replaces Lee on the post-lockout ‘28 projected position player roster as utility IF. With his speed, better glove, and peskiness at the plate, he’s a likely better late inning option. He might even battle Houston for the starting SS spot. (Note: assuming we win the draft, Chowolsky is at 3B, Culpepper is at 2B, and Keaschall is at 1B; if we don’t draft Chowolsky, Lewis could be at 3B - he’ll get 2026 to make his case).

“after the shocking decision to trade Carlos Correa”? Don’t you mean “after the Twins’ smartest trade decision in years”?