TwinsDr2021

Gausman was lights most of the year, but his last 3 starts haven't been good, so if he doesn't turn that around I have no interest in signing him, plus his track record doesn't scream can't miss, which means I wouldn't give him more than 2 or 3 year contract even if he does turn it around the rest of the year. Stroman seems like an expensive down grade from Berrios, I am fine with starting him, but thinking he is an aces is a huge mistake. I am for signing Thor, maybe the most risk, but also a possible high reward. I like Ray, Rodriguez might be a guy they sign to a two year contact thinking the Twins minor league pitchers should be as good as him by year 3. My preference would be to stay away from Gausman and Stroman and try to sign two of the others guys, with Thor being my number 1.

Not sure there is much to argue with it, wasn't much to choose from July, here are most of the numbers for July, which are just gross. Pineda -4.41. Robles - 9.64 , Alcala - 7.84, Happ - 9.22, Duffey - 4.66, Rogers - 6.48, Colome - 3.72, Thielbar - 6.00, Jax - 5.14, Minaya - 6.00, Burrows - 8.31,

The issue with the 5 inning start is that you are asking your bullpen to pitch 4 innings, the best bullpen this year is SD with an ERA of 2.90 with amazingly the most innings pitched. But when you get to the 10th best Oakland it is 3.73, and a 1/3 of the team over 4.5. Asking the SD bullpen to go 3 innings every game, means that on average they will give up 1 run, which is good, but for every game they don't give up a run the expectation is the next night they give up two, and so on, now add on another inning every game and you can see that by the time you get to the bullpen you have to have a lead or have your offense make up for the starter and the runs their bullpen gives up. And this is for the best bullpen, in the league. Now imagine those numbers were you bullpen ERA is closer to 4 or higher, it gets ugly. In 2019 the best bullpen was TB at 3.71, (Twins 47), in 2020 Oak and LAD were under 3, but only 4 under 3.5 and that was a crazy short season, in 2018 Houston was the best at 3.03 but that is no surprise with the starting staff they had, the pitched the second fewest innings. I fully understand that this is the way of MLB right now, but my point is that it doesn't seem to be working to put a starter out there for 4 or 5 innings and then start the bullpen parade, because every night you have to assume one of them is going to give up a run or more, or even multiple pitchers will, any other assumption is bad. I would think with analytics they should be able to figure out stacking or have starters might relief the back end of the pens from having to perfect every time. I just get sick of watching pitchers have 20 pitches per inning and knowing they will be pulled the third though the lineup anyway.

Without my opinion on what they should have done, there was one other option, try to compete next year (and use that time to try and sign him) and if that didn't work out and trade him at the deadline. As for buying low, I don't think they bought low, I think next year he will drop in the national prospect ranking based on the possibly of not be a SS and being 23, not a huge drop (maybe 10 - 20 spots) unless things really turn around this year,

Agreed, I remember when Berrios, Romero, Graterol, Gonslaves, Thorpe, Enlow, Alcala, Jay, Stewart, Mejia, Jorge just to name a few were going to be the key to sustained success. And how there was a riches of short stop prospects, Lewis, Goron, Javier, Severino, Cavaco, Holland. What I see from the current group is a bunch trade-able prospects, but of course the problem is they are all getting real close or already required to be added to the 40 man roster. I hear a lot of people talking about doing it the Tampa way. And yes they trade stars for prospects (Snell, Archer, Longoria, Shields, etc..) but they also do a great job of internally scouting their farm system and making decisions on their prospects and trading them to get current help, or clear 40 man roster, or re-tool with some younger prospects as to not clog up their 40 man. Example they traded two pitchers to the Twins one on their 40 and one that has to be added at the end of the year for a really good player that will help them this year and then probably won't be with them next year, I would assumed they deemed the two pitchers they traded as one is probably a AAAA pitcher and the other because of only two pitches ends up in the pen, or maybe a starter but will take more time develop thus clogging up the 40. In the end it is a win, win, win for Tampa, help this year, cleared up three 40 man spaces, thus allowing them to possibly trade another good player (or sign) for a few more prospects to reload the farm. Imagine any of the last three years the Twins trading two prospects similar to Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman for a short term rental. First IMO I couldn't see the twins doing that (I mean since they didn't) and imagine the comments on here about how they are giving up future success and two probably cheap, good rotation players.

I think they did good on the players they got, the one criticism I have is the two guys from Tampa require 40 man roster space (one now, one for next year), Which I believe is why Tampa was willing to trade them, they basically cleared 3 spots for next year, while the Twins added one player, thus one less spot. Which means they basically have to cut a pitcher next year that is currently on the 40 this year. As for Gant, having him on the roster this year, mean one less prospect can be added and brought up to evaluate.

My assumption is they would have to be on the 40 man roster, and by my math there is 39 players on that, not sure if any of the players on the 10 day could be moved to the 60 day to open up a few more spots, but my guess is that is one of the reason we aren't seeing any of the AAA relief pitchers in MN, not enough room on the 40.

I tend to agree with you on Lewis, the hard part is I think he has to be put on the 40 this off season, and if he doesn't rake or really prove he will be a major league player, could there be a chance he doesn't or shouldn't be put on the 40 the next year? As for Martin, unless he has to be put on the 40 this offseason, I think next year he starts at AA if he rakes, you move him to AA and decide if he can help the big club and then put him on the 40 (of course if the team is terrible you wait until the offseason)

IMO the trade deadline comes down to 4 factors. Now, this offseason, 2022 season, and the seasons after that. As of 8/2/2021, it is a high grade, they got prospects for guys that won't do anything this year (meaning they are out of the playoff hunt) and hopefully freed up some to see some young guys. The rest are all incomplete. They have some huge decisions on the 40 man this offseason, and they added more to those decisions by the guys they brought in. 2022, will come down to if they are good next year, and if they are and they need a starting pitcher, would it have been cheaper to keep Berrios, or did that trade give them the extra resources to get somebody else? and after that, who knows, the odds say it won't matter, Berrios wasn't going to sign, and the guys they got won't be stars.

Sorry I wasn't suggesting the offense couldn't compete next year, I was saying the Team as a whole, when you roster including pitching and non-pitching is over half rookies or partial second year players, plus some of the one that aren't are off of injury. Plus the team that was mentioned had zero depth except for more rookies, I guess I could have assumed that triple A would have filled with older vets ready to step in when somebody gets hurt or when one of the rookies needs to be sent down. For example it listed Lewis and Martin and possibly a FA for SS. Doesn't it have to be the opposite way? sign a FA with Lewis (I can't imagine him in MN before next Sept) and Martin as possible backups? and if one of them absolutely force their way on the team, that is awesome. I guess my real point is the FO has to be prepared for injuries and prospects just not being good (Rooker for example at the start of the year), isn't that way they signed Garlick, Refsnyder, and kept Cave or Wade?

I don't think a team that consists of half to over half of its roster being rookies or guys that barely have gotten their feet wet can compete in the Major Leagues. Kirilloff, Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers, Rortvedt, Larnach, Rooker, Gordon, Celestino, Ober, Barnes, Moran, and all the minor league pitchers mentioned. Not sure how they can go into 22 with complete unknowns at SS, unproven outfielder, unproven DH, and a bench and back up players of rookies. Also have 60% of the rotation of pitches coming off injury and or/rookies. Then a bullpen of two vets and bunch of absolute question marks. If this is the plan for 22, I believe the front office should be fired and good luck selling fans on this, because if those pitches fail at the expected probability -Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Ryan, Strottman, Vallimont, Woods-Richardson, and Sands, they are in for another long rebuild.

Well that is even better only 80 guaranteed for 7 years, way less than I was thinking, But IMO if they can't come together on incentives, it because Buxton is asking for very low incentives with big paybacks, I would think if he is willing to sign for his prime years of 28-35, he is looking for the possibility to double that 80 amount, for something silly like if he plays 100 games in one of the first 2 or 3 years it guarantees the last years of the contract, but obviously this is just me speculating. I can't imagine if they are only 10-20 million a part on incentives over 7 years why the Twins just wouldn't cover that and call it a day. Me personally I would rather give him more per year for less years than spreading it out over more years, but again just opinion.

I completely understand what you are saying, I am just of the opinion that if the Twins want him and they want to sign him now you make an offer he can't refuse. If the Twins truly want him they have to believe the injuries have been freak and won't continue and he will continue in his prime like he has when he has played the last few years. They could negotiate based on other players and tell him how much he has been injured and how his career WAR is only 11.1, is that going to get him or is that going to get him to bet on himself? I don't think either of us know that answer. To be honest I am not sure there is another player like him, maybe going way back it could be Eric Davis, when he played he was awesome, but man he could never stay healthy either, and if anybody believes that could be him going forward, you absolutely don't commit any long term money his way. Plus my original post said 5/100 with incentives that could get him to 135-150. not a guarantee of 135-150, sure maybe 100 million is too much guaranteed money (but it is not my money and I could care less about the Pohlads money) but it is sure to draw his attention and would be hard for him to say no.

Trout 37, Springer 23, heyward 23.5, Upton 23, Myers, 22.5, Betts 22.5. Blackmon 21.3, McCutchen 20, Pollock 18, Fowler 16.5, Bellinger 16.1, Brantley 16, Ozuna 16, Cain, 16, Castellanos 14.1, Yelich 14, Marte 12.5 Where does Buxton seeing himself fit into that group? If I am him my absolute floor is Fowler/Ozuna and my cap is just north of Springer. So pay me my floor give me a chance to get to my ceiling. Also IMO he has been a top 5 player when healthy basically since 2019. Also I am good with you and many, many others having a different opinion than mine, that is what makes it great talking about things, so there really is no need demanding others to show anything or attack them. your could have left out the last two lines of your reply and made the same point.

I guess I look at it as twins piss away between 5 and 15 million a year on guys like, Fernando Rodney, zach Duke, Jason Castro, Phil Hughes, Schoop, Perez, Bailey, Avila, Happ, Colome types; so yes they won't get those guys if he isn't healthy so they will have to go another step lower on the FA list

From ESPN - He leads the Twins this year in (2.9) WAR while only playing 27 games, he is also 33rd in all of baseball. Lead the Twins in 2020 (1.9) while only playing 39 games and was 24th in all of baseball. Was 5th on the Twins in 2019 (3.1) while only playing 87 games and was 68th in baseball. Meaning when healthy is a top 5 player in the game and should be paid like one, I completely understand he hasn't been healthy very often, but first it isn't my money so giving a potential top 5 player 100 million doesn't bother me and if he meets the incentives he would be worth 135-150. Secondly the team can insure the crap out of him, so it really doesn't cost that much and a sunk cost of 20 million shouldn't affect the Twins payroll all that much.

Agreed based on these 3, 5/100 plus incentives up to someplace between 125-150 seems like a legit offer.

Are we 100% sure Larnach will start next year with the Twins? His audition started off well but in July he has been brutal (.205, .279, .295) if this would have been just about any other year he would be back in the minors. Don't get me wrong I think his future is bright, but writing his name in pen as a starter next year is dangerous, because if he hits like this you will need a back up plan and like Mike said there really isn't one in the minors right now, so that means most older cast off replacements.

As much as I hate to say it (threw up a bit in my mouth) Colome has pitched his way into being a mid relief pitcher for a good team, and could bring back a flyer on a guy in A ball. He has been good in July (2.35 in 7.2 innings), was great in May (1.74 in 10.1 innings), and only gave up runs in 4 of 11 games in July and if you take away the disaster again Baltimore his ERA would be under 4. I am not saying he should be pitching late in a game for any team, but he might help out a team early in the game.

Sadly looking at the updated prospect list at least from the sportingnews, none of the contenders have the top 5- 10 overall prospect that I would require for Berrios. If I am giving Berrios and his 1 1/2 of control and the option to negotiate with him, I want a sure fire major league player, somebody like, Jimenez, Torres, Robles, Kopech, Buehler, Bichette not a bunch of players to fill out the prospect lists. Also I agree with you I don't want any pitcher that is already a relief pitcher for Berrios or Rogers, the odds that a starter they get will end up being a relief pitcher anyway.

I like most of what you said, but IMO those pitchers are not tremendous depth, they are major crapshots. Thor coming back from TJ, 4 rookies and as of today only one has pitched more than a 1/3 of an inning in the majors, and Maeda. Going into this year they had, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Dobnak, Ober, Berrios, Pineda, Maeda, Happ and Shoemaker, which in theory is way more depth. I do like those guys as the added to depth to a Rondon, Maeda, Thor, and then all those guys filling in 4/5.

Yes, and with him added to another player maybe they can get a better prospect returned the trade.

I will also add to my previous post, of the top 25 ERA leaders this year, only Brandon Woodruff(24), Chris Bassitt(25), deGrom (26, mostly because of injury), Davish (25 -Japan), and Charlie Morton (24) weren't pitching in the majors by age 23. So IMO if you minor league pitching prospects aren't ready for the majors by 23, you can assume you aren't getting a top of the rotation arm. Which means Jordan Balazovic needs to be up very, very soon. Edit- you can actually go to the top 50 and only added the following who weren't pitching in the majors before age 24- Nick Pivetta(24), Sean Manaea(24), Lance Lynn(24), Yusei Kikuchi(28), Luis Castillo(24), Anthony DeSclafani(24), Merrill Kelly(30), Jordan Montgomery(24)

Graterol was 20 Alcala - 23 Thorpe - 23 Smelzer - 23 Mejia - 23 Romero - 23 Gonsalves - 23 Stewart - 23 Duffey - 24 Dobnak - 24 Duran is 23, and probably would have been up. Jordan Balazovic is 22, Canterino - 23 Enlow - 22 Winder, Sands, Colina, Vallimont, Burrows, Moran are all already 24, Barnes 25, Cano 27. It isn't like they waited too long on calling some of them up, it is more like they just weren't that good, or maybe held onto them to long to get any value, the next wave are basically all 24 or older Berrios already had 400 innings by that time.

I believe Puckett was baseballs first 3 million dollar player. 3 years 9 million dollars, remember the good ole days.