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TwinsDr2021

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Everything posted by TwinsDr2021

  1. TwinsDr2021
    So do you think the Pohlads send people to this site to see how the wind is blowing, and those people report back, hey we might have finally convinced the fans to save you money, and the Pohlads laugh like the Duke brothers? (trading places reference) Currently now they are sitting 44 million under last years payroll with options(based on numbers from Baseball Reference), and there is talk to trade Sano (10 million) to save money, Donaldson for sure (50 million over 20 years with buyout), and some have suggested Kepler (about 16 over 2 years with a buyout). And others are worried about spending money on a 29 year old SS, who was a top 12 MVP 3 of the last 4 years, and the year he wasn't only had a 4.2 WAR, because he makes too much or might possibly be blocking a guy that hasn't played in two years and never has hit as good as Story even when Story hasn't been great. If people aren't willing to spend money on a 29 year old offensive player, who are you ever going to be OK with signing?
  2. TwinsDr2021
    IMO it comes from, fans love the hope of a prospect, they dream of the prospect being a yearly all star stepping in taking over the position with very little struggle. Then when that prospect gets real close to be depended on, we fans start pointing out things that have probably been there the whole time, but we have to temper our expectations to as not to be let down by the player, because we are already dreaming on the next prospect. Look at the wild up and downs on Lewis for example. Two years ago he was the Twins SS of the future, he started getting close last year and we fans were talking about him moving to the OF, maybe staying at SS. Now that it is likely he will be in the minors all year, we fans are talking about how he might be the SS of the future again, and my guess is if he bat is decent, going into next year we fans will be saying maybe LF is his position until Buxton contract is up, traded or injured.
  3. TwinsDr2021
    Love the optimism, it seems weird that the FO didn't think they could do that in September last year, but would be able to do it at the start of this year. I think Balazovic needs 10 - 15 big league stars this year at a minimum to, if there is hope he is Shane Bieber like. I believe Winder needs 15 or more since he is much older.
  4. TwinsDr2021
    Agreed, if there was no lock out the AAA rotation should be Balazovic (23), Winder (25)/Strotman (25) (one in the majors), Canterino (24), Varland (24), Sands (24), these pitchers are all too old to be starting anywhere but AAA, I don't care about innings or injuries, unless the plan a head of time is to give them 3-5 in AA and bring them directly up to the majors. Duran should be in the majors pitching out of the pen. And if the Twins start Jordan in AA because of these other pitchers, #4 is too high.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    The Twins have better defensive of options? Who AK? he has played 64 games at first since 2016. or JD moved over from 3B. The extension was fine, he hasn't blocked any prospect from coming up or hindered the team from signing anybody. Why are people worried about 10 million of Polhads money?
  6. TwinsDr2021
    I am not defending Law, way back when he was free on ESPN I read all of his stuff. I think it was in one chat where he said something a long the lines of younger pitchers are hard to project, so you take size, arm motion and stuff and project what they could be, thus why you see pitchers like Kohl Stewart so high on lists, but the older they get the closer they are to what they will be than would they could be. And besides SWR none of the Twins prospects are all that young. Shane Bieber was getting his feet wet with 20 games as a 23 year old, got better at 24, awesome at 25. I remember a debate about the NY Mets maybe assembling one of the best pitching staffs in history. Thor, Harvey, De Grom, Martz (and maybe wheeler, don't remember all of them) around 2014 and it was pointed out most them were already in their mid 20's and weren't likely to get much better than they already were and shouldn't be mentioned in conversation, because they hadn't really accomplished anything at that point, 7 years later to this point besides De Grom and Wheeler (in Philly) as a group they didn't get any better. I don't really think the Twins need their top prospects to get better (except SWR) than they are they just need to continue what they have been doing in the minors in the big leagues. So we can hope one of them magically becomes amazing in the majors or just be happy that 5 or 6 of them will be solid and maybe a bit better for a few years in the majors.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    To me the only reason he isn't number 1 is that he is already 25. He didn't even pitch in the minors until he was 23, but that year TB didn't waste time and had him pitch at A, A+ and AA. Then after 2020 moved him right to AAA. So in less than 2 years in the minors he was pitching in the Olympics and in the majors, that is great. With him turning 26 in June he doesn't really have the luxury to not be pretty darn good most of the time, which I believe he will be with his age, ability and experience of the Olympics. Him and AK are the only two plug and play young guys, all the others are fingers crossed .
  8. TwinsDr2021
    The only reason(s) IMO from being in MN this year, is the 40 man roster crunch or Injuries, if he doesn't stay healthy, I believe he will be just another body that needs to be on the 40 man next year.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    Miranda is on the 40 man, so I see him making the team out of spring training before Rooker, unless Rooker takes the 4th outfield spot over Laranch. But anyway you look at it this team could easily be as bad as some of the worst Twins teams ever, question marks at every level, no chance I would pay to see this team, or even watch it on TV. I am not sure how a team could come up with a worse pitching staff than this, there is really only one for sure pitcher in Rogers (and he was injured at the end of last year). Every other pitcher is a question mark.
  10. TwinsDr2021
    I just don't see this happening. 100 inning relief pitchers for a bunch of reasons. Scott Proctor was the last pitcher to do it at age 29 for his career basically last one more year. Dellin Betances pitched 90 as a 25 year old rookie went down each of the next four years, and has been hurt or terrible the last 3. Also, I can't imagine union or at least player agents being OK, with bringing up pitchers on the cheap to pitch 100 innings and then basically their career being over or not have a chance for a multiple year contracts. Also I see agents steering their players away from teams setting up their minor leagues system to implement it. But all this just my opinion.
  11. TwinsDr2021
    Lets hope Duran figures out better than Alcala, Alcala might have figured it based on his last 10-20 innings against some of the worst teams in baseball in his second season.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    I agree with this, IMO he is rated too high. He will be 24 this season which isn't horrible, but having pitched only 16 innings the last two years isn't a good. IMO if he is running out of options, it makes no sense to waste any time in the minors, he can pitch out of the bullpen (starting with low stress situations, maybe have a starter and have him planned to pitch two innings, or coming in for a couple innings if a starter goes bad) in majors and keep his innings down and be around major league coaches. I seen no reason to be wasting 100 mph fast balls from a 24 year old pitcher in AAA. Or trade him and let the other team worry about the 40 man roster spot, like TB did with Strotman) Not to change the subject but are all the other teams having issues with pitching injuries based on the missed 2020 season or are the Twins fans (me included) just wanting to make excuses?
  13. TwinsDr2021
    I think if you go back a few years on this site, the consensus was the Twins had a wealth of SS prospects. Lewis, Javier, Gordon, Cavaco, Will Holland. So my answer to the topic question is, yes they absolutely have a SS development problem, but so might 25 or so other teams.
  14. TwinsDr2021
    I agree the only pitchers I would rate above him are Ryan, Balazovic, and maybe SWR. And only below Miranda, Lewis, Martin, so he should be IMO 6 or 7. Unless the belief is that Canterino could make his way though AA and AA and to the majors this year, but if he does I don't see that happening as a starter (just based on the expected innings this year), his stuff seems better than Winder, but with the amount of innings he has pitched the last 2 years, I don't know if I expect to see him in the majors until late 2023.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    It only matters when it comes to fans perception of trades I guess. Trading a prospect ranked 25 for a relief pitcher for example, is perceived way different that a prospect ranked in the top 5. IMO I think of prospects as possible difference makers in the MLB. a 24 year old prospect in A/AA is less likely to be a difference maker than a 21/22 year old at the same level. With the covid year I think prospects that missed the year in the minors will tend to be a bit older for a few years, but in reality the cream always rises to the top and biggest difference makers will almost always come from the guys that make the majors at a younger age.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    If he comes close to Greg Gagne he would have exceeded all expectations IMO. Gagne has a career WAR of 26.3 and 10 years of a WAR above 1 and 8 above 2.2. Also to stay on the age theme, he debuted at age 21 but to be fair didn't really play until age 23.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    Calling BS on this one Seth, if Varland and Wallner did what they just did at A+ at age 21, they would be WAY higher up in the rankings, also if Celestino was already 24 and hadn't turned 23 yesterday he wouldn't barely be in the top 25 prospects. I don't really care if they get called up at 21 or 26 either if they turn out to be really good, but there has been talk on this board for two years about Kepler (trading him, not good enough, 4th outfielder, etc..) and he will be playing this year at 29. But if a 26 year old gets called up and plays like Larnach or gets hurt like AK, nobody has time to deal with that the other younger prospects that will be the guys getting the hype and playing time.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    I think the big difference between Lewis and Torkelson, is that Torkelson has played one year in them minors at three levels, hit 30 homers and had a .935 OPS. Lewis hasn't been played in two years, and the expectation of the two are way different going into this year. I would expect Torkelson should contribute in the majors, and IMO Lewis shouldn't be expected to even play in the majors this year. (hopefully he can exceed those expectations and prove people wrong) But that is the reason Torkelson is a top 10 prospects and Lewis is barely in the top 100. IMO age is a huge difference, but Lewis isn't a good example, because he is still young, He can still make the majors by 23, even if it is the start of 2023. have a good weekend.
  19. TwinsDr2021
    Not disagreeing with you but Torkelson might not be the best example, he was drafted in 2020, played basically all of 21 as a 21 year old and played at A+, AA, and AAA, and won't turn 23 until August, so unless Detroit is playing a service game he should see the majors at age 22. Rutschman I believe was affected by Covid and if not for that would more than likely have been in the majors last year as a 23 year old (since his birthday was a week ago). Matt Wallner was drafted in the same draft and hasn't played above A+.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    I would tend to agree with Covid the ages might creep up, but in most cases guys that are future All Star types will still see the majors at a fairly young age at least on the offense side of things. I think where we will really see the difference is in the pitchers based on how careful teams are with them. And the idea there is no need to bring a 22 year old up when you can stretch him out in the minors a year or two and control that pitcher though his late 20's.I can see lower Revenue teams to doing that so they never really have to pay the big dollars for pitchers. Cleveland for example has kind of been doing that, it might not be intentional but Clevinger, Plesac, Civale, Morgan, Plutko, and Kluber are examples.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    I would agree that I think of prospects as kind of the game changing players, not just guys that will make it. For example and forgive me if I missed somebody, but looking at last years all stars and when they first played in the majors it seems pretty consistent that the best ball players start their MLB career early. There are rare cases like De Grom. Which means most of the Twins prospects need to step it up this year if they hope to be future All Stars. Age Players 19 2 20 10 21 10 22 18 23 14 24 14 25 6 26 4 27 2 28 1
  22. TwinsDr2021
    No it would have been terrible for the Twins to sign him to that or really any contract. The "but" was now the players aren't getting as much of the overall Revenue because guys like that aren't getting the money and teams are smart enough not to pay somebody like or Rosario/Dozier for example and give those jobs to younger cheaper guys. For example take Ricky Nolasco for example and what he got, Pineda has been similiar and can't get that. Good for teams bad for players.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    I would add another thing that got MLB to this point is analytics. Take Brian Dozier for example, here is a guy that hit 42 homers at age 29 and 34 at age 30, and has only made 30 million in his career. In the past at 32 he probably would have gotten better than 9 million 1 year contract. Stuff like this is good for mid to low revenue teams but....
  24. TwinsDr2021
    ? agree with this statement. The season is over we have what players actually did, not what they should have done. But we can look at those numbers and use them as prediction going forward.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    We including me keep saying that but it would be interesting to see if it is actually True, Miranda for one came back better. Maybe the guys that are going to be good did fine or improved and maybe the guys that take way longer or never were going to make it suffered. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. On another note if Lewis wasn't already trending down on the national lists, I don't think the injury would have affected his status as much as it has. Starting high on the top prospects lists, there are really only two paths, one is quick to the majors and the other is down the prospects lists and hope to prove them wrong. Lewis has always seemed the guy that was going to follow the second path. Enlow on the other had has probably never been on the national prospects radar, but since we are super fans we see a guy that was a 3rd round pick that was supposed to go to LSU and see a future ace. He hasn't done anything in the minors that screams that, but we hope and hope and then he gets injured and we get to use that as an excuse to hope and hope and dream so more. Enlow has probably always been over hyped by us, he turns 23 and never has pitched above high A, if not for the Covid missed year, he would have to come back from injury lights out to even be considered a prospect anymore.
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